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Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma and Mid West Smasher.


Clinton

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Jim Cantore is reporting from Dallas, TX and could not believe my eyes at what I was seeing. Whiteout conditions w temps in the teens and wcf below zero. They have more accumulating snow in their forecast for Wednesday.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I honestly can deal with being missed this week from the snow events. Seeing the pics of Dallas,Houston,Memphis etc is surreal. Well worth it!!!  When they put the live shots up on TWC  - it's taking some getting used to when the locations are not Chicago, MPLS BUT Dallas??  Just glad to be around to witness this history.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Picking up what will likely be the heaviest portion of this storm for me. Beautiful night. Seeing TX covered in WSW today was something incredible.

How much do you have so far and on the ground? 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

I honestly can deal with being missed this week from the snow events. Seeing the pics of Dallas,Houston,Memphis etc is surreal. Well worth it!!!  When they put the live shots up on TWC  - it's taking some getting used to when the locations are not Chicago, MPLS BUT Dallas??  Just glad to be around to witness this history.

 

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Picking up what will likely be the heaviest portion of this storm for me. Beautiful night. Seeing TX covered in WSW today was something incredible.

I heard this the 1st time in history the entire state of TX is covered with a Winter Storm Warning.  We are witnessing something truly historic.  Quite the ferocious Winter's onslaught upon our nation.

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

I heard this the 1st time in history the entire state of TX is covered with a Winter Storm Warning.  We are witnessing something truly historic.  Quite the ferocious Winter's onslaught upon our nation.

First winter storm warning issued by the NWS Brownsville office since Groundhog Day 2011.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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A couple days ago, I noticed the EPS and GEFS members sniffing out the potential of the second part of this storm to produce a more healthy looking storm.  It took till yesterday for the models to trend stronger which I was hoping they would and now it is looking likely we will see a classic comma shape look on radar come tomorrow later today.

The latest HRRR satellite animation below has that classic winter storm look... @OKwx2k4, there is that Arklatex storm we have been searching for!

1.gif

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Some of these obs coming out of Texas are simply hard to believe- but true. I can't wait to see pics in the daylight.

Austin

KAUS 150653Z 33010G21KT 1/4SM R17L/2000V3000FT +SN BLSN VV004M11/M13 A3033 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/0624 SLP287 SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0015 T11061128 $

San Antonio-

KSAT 150651Z 33016G22KT 1/2SM R13R/3500V4500FT SN VV007 M11/M14 A3031 RMK AO2 PRESRR SLP267 SNINCR 1/2 P0005 T11111139 $

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Most, if not all, CAM's paint double digit totals for ORD and points east in Cook county.  I could see LOT expand the warnings into DuPage and even Lake county given the set up.  As much as I wanna go all in on the 10"+ totals for MBY, I feel that this will be a nowcast event to see where exactly this lake plume will develop and meander.  I've seen similar situations as this one, whereby one single band sets up and it ended up over achieving in counties that weren't in warnings.  The way I look at it is, the models are certainly on board that the lake plume will develop but they don't necessarily depict the end result in terms of exact location of heaviest accumulation.  The very high totals being spit out is a clear indication to me that the lake plume means business.  I really believe this set up could produce some lollipop totals for someone in NE IL that could push 18" totals.  I just got this gut feeling this could be one for the history books.

 

Latest HRRR....

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

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I literally just read the latest AFD out from LOT late this evening and their thinking of possibly expanding the warnings mirrors my thoughts above.  They also are impressed with the evolution of this storm system, esp tonight's snowfall which has trended with more snow.

Quote

235
FXUS63 KLOT 150450
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1050 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

.UPDATE...
924 PM CST

Round 1 of snow--the appetizer of what looks to be a four course
meal--has overspread much of the area this evening. This is
shaping up to be a highly challenging forecast to message and
communicate given so many moving parts (and rapid changes in
guidance).
Quote

Made no changes to the location of the Winter Storm Warnings with
this update with explicit deterministic amounts near to just
under criteria for a 24-hour period, but note that based on the
incoming guidance, imagine we`ll need to consider upgrades to
Winter Storm Warnings for some of the area, perhaps Livingston,
Grundy, the rest of Will, DuPage, and Lake IL counties. Will let
the mid shift get one more look at things, but have bumped totals
up a bit across the board with this update.

 

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44 minutes ago, Tom said:

A couple days ago, I noticed the EPS and GEFS members sniffing out the potential of the second part of this storm to produce a more healthy looking storm.  It took till yesterday for the models to trend stronger which I was hoping they would and now it is looking likely we will see a classic comma shape look on radar come tomorrow later today.

The latest HRRR satellite animation below has that classic winter storm look... @OKwx2k4, there is that Arklatex storm we have been searching for!

1.gif

This is awesome development. We're back to where WPC had us on their map 2/10.

Could be flirting with bliz conditions if the NAM and HRRR are correct. Should have "that feel" whether it verifies or not tho.

 

20210215 0z NAM h27 Gusts.png

20210215 0z HRRR h27 Gusts.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

This is awesome development. We're back to where WPC had us on their map 2/10.

Could be flirting with bliz conditions if the NAM and HRRR are correct. Should have "that feel" whether it verifies or not tho.

 

20210215 0z NAM h27 Gusts.png

20210215 0z HRRR h27 Gusts.png

The last min trends are def in your favor buddy!  I'm excited for you and the rest of the S MI crew who have been neglected this season.  This one is shaping up to be a nice storm for you guys.

 

Meantime, 00z EPS trending wetter/better for NE IL into S MI...

1.png

 

 

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Well, KC managed to be the big LOSER again....only a dusting here in my part of KC yesterday. It was so bad that even the sun came out for awhile yesterday afternoon just for fun. I have never been so let down by the model promises of accumulating snow over the last 8 days. Congrats to all that are scoring big with this storm, it's quite impressive what it is doing that far south. After today, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and northern Louisiana will have recorded more snowfall this winter then KC. (I just threw up)

Nonetheless, what an impressive cold snap this has been. (Tom, you forecasted this, nice job)I believe this will fall in the top 5 here in KC for the coldest 2 week stretch in our history. Set a record low this morning, I dropped to -13 at my house. May hit -20 tonight.

RAP model......its trying to give KC 1" of snow this afternoon, COME ON BABY!! 

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Good morning, so happy to see the models really trended the right way for Jaster, Niko, and all the Mich crew.  Currently I have light snow falling with a temp at -6.  I got some new accumulation last night, not sure how much with it blowing around.  I will muster the courage to get out and measure once it's light out (so cold).  Hope my KC friends can pull some snow their way this morning, I've been very lucky, 30 miles to my NW has about half the snow.

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47 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Well, KC managed to be the big LOSER again....only a dusting here in my part of KC yesterday. It was so bad that even the sun came out for awhile yesterday afternoon just for fun. I have never been so let down by the model promises of accumulating snow over the last 8 days. Congrats to all that are scoring big with this storm, it's quite impressive what it is doing that far south. After today, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and northern Louisiana will have recorded more snowfall this winter then KC. (I just threw up)

Nonetheless, what an impressive cold snap this has been. (Tom, you forecasted this, nice job)I believe this will fall in the top 5 here in KC for the coldest 2 week stretch in our history. Set a record low this morning, I dropped to -13 at my house. May hit -20 tonight.

RAP model......its trying to give KC 1" of snow this afternoon, COME ON BABY!! 

Rooting hard for ya Mike, hope the comma head gets far enough west for ya to get an inch or two.  Stay warm it will be football season again before we know it.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_13.png

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Picked up an additional 0.6" since last midnight measurement.  Overnight total so far 1.4" and its currently still snowing lightly.  It feels like the arctic tundra out there with the wind blowing the snow sideways.  My goodness, its gonna be brutal out there today.  Current temp of +1F w/ a N wind sustained at 10mph.  #Chiberia

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@Clinton

I see the ULL on the satellite radar run, I see the spin. It looks to be a on a good track. Radar echoes are increasing in south central KS, we'll see how this plays out. You certainly stand a better chance then KC, but, we just might have a snowy afternoon. 

Looking over some snow reports in Texas, some 10"+ amounts down there from this storm. Parts of KC are only at 7-9 inches for the whole winter. I'm okay each winter with Iowa and Nebraska beating us with snow totals, but TEXAS????

BTW, how cold is it. Some of my fleet has froze up on us this morning as we treat parking lots. These diesel trucks gel up, I have been in the snow business a long time, 20 years.....never had trucks gel up on us. ITS COLD!!! 

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16 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

@Clinton

I see the ULL on the satellite radar run, I see the spin. It looks to be a on a good track. Radar echoes are increasing in south central KS, we'll see how this plays out. You certainly stand a better chance then KC, but, we just might have a snowy afternoon. 

Looking over some snow reports in Texas, some 10"+ amounts down there from this storm. Parts of KC are only at 7-9 inches for the whole winter. I'm okay each winter with Iowa and Nebraska beating us with snow totals, but TEXAS????

BTW, how cold is it. Some of my fleet has froze up on us this morning as we treat parking lots. These diesel trucks gel up, I have been in the snow business a long time, 20 years.....never had trucks gel up on us. ITS COLD!!! 

Texas having a snowier winter than us is a tough pill to swallow.  The radar indeed looks great, the snow is further west than some models are showing and it looks stronger.  I am currently at -7 with a WC of -23.  Good luck today!

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Looks like 2" or so fell imby and all hell breaks loose tanite, as I am expecting to get 8-12"+. Grand storm total easily 12"+. This will be a a very cold monster snowstorm.

Right now temps are at 8F under light snow. ❄️

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Last nite's Euro was fantastic. This storm is loaded and locked.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210215/a96f7cb7b0c1d5f6ac39a6f2143e4f18.jpg&key=5de8ada7354c3c757d44f132d51df5a5beeeb09ffe2fd5de27b9a7acd7564c75

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Not sure if anyone seen this, but RAP and HRRR  models are showing possible "Blizzard" conditions for the Detroit Metro area w widespread 12"+ amounts.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just been upgraded to a Winterstorm Warning! Finally! ❄️👍

I knew it was only a matter of time!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1010 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

MIZ063-069-070-075-076-082-083-160000-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210216T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.210215T2300Z-210216T1700Z/
St. Clair-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Port Huron, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,
Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
1010 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9
  inches.

* WHERE...St. Clair, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee
  and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening and especially the Tuesday
  morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow re intensifies toward 6 pm this
  evening. Snow becomes heavy at times tonight with an additional
  6 to 9 inches expected before diminishing Tuesday morning.
  Highest snowfall totals expected from the Lake Huron shoreline
  southward through metro Detroit, Ann Arbor and near the Ohio
  border.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Wow that would be the icing on the cake!

Indeed, but correct me if I am wrong amigo...🤔

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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