Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 Good trends on the models this morning for KC, Chicago, and points south and east. @OKwx2k4 you may want to invest in a snow blower lol. Closer to home those of us that live in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri know it's never easy to get a good snow. We have a different enemy this time, it's not warm air but dry air. Good luck to all. 12z NAM 12z RDPS 4 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16853 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Clinton said: Good trends on the models this morning for KC, Chicago, and points south and east. @OKwx2k4 you may want to invest in a snow blower lol. Closer to home those of us that live in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri know it's never easy to get a good snow. We have a different enemy this time, it's not warm air but dry air. Good luck to all. 12z NAM 12z RDPS Glad you did bc I was just coming on the comp to do the same thing! LOL...hoping for a shift NW and the models latch onto the ULL tracking overhead. I flipped through the 06z EPS ensembles and a lot of them show a large precip shield swinging through the MW/Lower Lakes region. Once this energy gets into the 4 corners on Sat/Sun the models should have a good handle on this. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayhawker85 65 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Tom said: Glad you did bc I was just coming on the comp to do the same thing! LOL...hoping for a shift NW and the models latch onto the ULL tracking overhead. I flipped through the 06z EPS ensembles and a lot of them show a large precip shield swinging through the MW/Lower Lakes region. Once this energy gets into the 4 corners on Sat/Sun the models should have a good handle on this. i hope this NW wet trend continues. sucks having all this cold and nothing but flurries coming out 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 12z GFS a step back for KC but a good hit up to S. Mich. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mlgamer 504 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 I don't have any idea what I did to tick off the 12z GFS so bad, but it sure doesn't like me for some reason... 1 Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4") 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17 Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, mlgamer said: I don't have any idea what I did to tick off the 12z GFS so bad, but it sure doesn't like me for some reason... That run was just cruel. The CMC is looking much better though. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 @Clinton Excellent idea amigo..... Btw: did you see the 12z GFS ?? A Crusher! 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 12z Canadian 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Niko said: @Clinton Excellent idea amigo..... Btw: did you see the 12z GFS ?? Hits you hard! Puts me right on the edge of the heavy. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
someweatherdude 401 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: That run was just cruel. The CMC is looking much better though. I'm refusing to look at the models, which is hard when perusing this forum. But my willpower is strong. As for the GFS, I haven't seen it. But given how wrong it's been for KC weather over the last two weeks, I wouldn't base any conclusions on it. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Hits you hard! Puts me right on the edge of the heavy. Indeed, but you do great as well. Fun times ahead bud! 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: I'm refusing to look at the models, which is hard when perusing this forum. But my willpower is strong. As for the GFS, I haven't seen it. But given how wrong it's been for KC weather over the last two weeks, I wouldn't base any conclusions on it. The sun is shinning here today, I don't remember the last time we have had sunshine, must be at least 6 days. 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mlgamer 504 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: I'm refusing to look at the models, which is hard when perusing this forum. But my willpower is strong. As for the GFS, I haven't seen it. But given how wrong it's been for KC weather over the last two weeks, I wouldn't base any conclusions on it. I've decided to "embrace the suck" as they say in the military and have fun with it. Besides, plenty of time for further shifts so who knows... 3 Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4") 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17 Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 Thx for starting Clinton. I also considered Y'day but backed-off to let y'all southerners have a shot at it. Looks like we have GEM/Euro north vs GFS south. NAM in the middle? I will say that the air today has a warmer moist feel here so the squashing PV may relax just enough.. 2 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Thx for starting Clinton. I also considered Y'day but backed-off to let y'all southerners have a shot at it. Looks like we have GEM/Euro north vs GFS south. NAM in the middle? I will say that the air today has a warmer moist feel here so the squashing PV may relax just enough.. That would be great and the models seem to be supporting that with better totals up your way. Good luck and the storm on the heels of this one seems to be targeting the mitt also. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Tom said: Glad you did bc I was just coming on the comp to do the same thing! LOL...hoping for a shift NW and the models latch onto the ULL tracking overhead. I flipped through the 06z EPS ensembles and a lot of them show a large precip shield swinging through the MW/Lower Lakes region. Once this energy gets into the 4 corners on Sat/Sun the models should have a good handle on this. Lol. I appreciate you guys. I was just going to keep sprinkling this awesomeness all over the forum. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 @Clinton For the 2nd storm next week, 1 model takes it so far east, that we get nothing and the other crushes SMI and other peeps that are in the path of the storm. Take a pick! Still plenty of time for that to get resolved. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 12z Euro 10:1. @CentralNebWeathercan you post the Kuchera thru 108 please? 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4574 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 It's going back to dry for much of Iowa. Four runs ago the Euro suddenly showed the upper energy cutting up to Iowa, which dropped a few inches here. It was doing that because it had the PV lobe quickly getting out of the way. However, since then the Euro has trended toward the PV hanging back further into the lakes, which leads to the new energy being weaker and also tracking farther southeast. For any additional significant snow to fall in places like Iowa and Minnesota, the cold will have to back off. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 897 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 Depressing for Michigan. Oh well. Enjoy it to the south and east. Big winners there. Midwest/GL going to get shut out, then it's almost March. Bring on warm and Thunderstorms. We need a warmer, more active Spring for once!!! 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Popular Post gabel23 1603 Posted February 12 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 12 This might be the funniest thing yet. 1 9 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4672 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 56 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro 10:1. @CentralNebWeathercan you post the Kuchera thru 108 please? 12z Euro Kuchera through hour 108. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 12z Euro Mean 10:1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 15z SREF trough hr 87 at 10:1 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 18z NAM really holds back the main energy and strengthens it. At hr 84 it is closing in on Chicago and Michigan moving NE The first piece of energy does well on it's own. It will be interesting to see if this continues and if it can work west some over the next 24hrs. If the NAM is correct this could be a major hit for Niko and the other SE Mich folks. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 18z RDPS 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 18z ICON with 10:1 ratios 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 A snap shot of my area! Very sharp cut-off line to my west. Yikes! 3 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 131 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, Stacsh said: Depressing for Michigan. Oh well. Enjoy it to the south and east. Big winners there. Midwest/GL going to get shut out, then it's almost March. Bring on warm and Thunderstorms. We need a warmer, more active Spring for once!!! Still waiting on a big dog here in kzoo - no snows more than 3.5 inches for any 24 hr period! Misses west, east, north, south or systems lose umph when they get here. But still more season total snowfall ive probably ever had. At least you had that 8 inch day on the 5th! 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 12 Author Report Share Posted February 12 18z GFS just hates the KC area so I give it a middle finger. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jayhawker85 65 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS just hates the KC area so I give it a middle finger. dont get too hurt with the GFS output, they predicted a week ago we would be under 20 inches of snow and we barely got half a inch lol 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 Yeah gfs is the junk machine so don’t worry about it 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mlgamer 504 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS just hates the KC area... Yeah, just need to let it go and bury yourself in a good book... 1 3 Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4") 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17 Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8342 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 18z NAM really holds back the main energy and strengthens it. At hr 84 it is closing in on Chicago and Michigan moving NE The first piece of energy does well on it's own. It will be interesting to see if this continues and if it can work west some over the next 24hrs. If the NAM is correct this could be a major hit for Niko and the other SE Mich folks. Just as long as this doesn't hit Stasch. He's already thrown the towel on behalf of all Micigan. Seriously?? Need a tight gradient of 12" in mby to 1" in his. Gotta balance that nice Storm Warning and LES he just got a week ago. 3 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4672 Posted February 12 Report Share Posted February 12 18 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Yeah, just need to let it go and bury yourself in a good book... Now that’s funny. 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 18z Euro not much change from the 12z. 10:1 map 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 5 hours ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro Mean 10:1 Still a lower avg out of the euro. Seems to be drying out here as we go along. Still a good bit of spread in terms of entensity. Not so much in coverage. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Just as long as this doesn't hit Stasch. He's already thrown the towel on behalf of all Micigan. Seriously?? Need a tight gradient of 12" in mby to 1" in his. Gotta balance that nice Storm Warning and LES he just got a week ago. Remember those storms I used to write about that connected my weather to yours? This looks like one of those "classics". Textbook if it works out right. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: Now that’s funny. Kansas is really getting "Nebraska'd" (ca. 2015-19 era) on this deal. What a hole! Hahaha. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, Clinton said: 18z ICON with 10:1 ratios If I get beat by DFW again..... lol. I'm going to lose it. 1 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 0z NAM 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 NAM there kinda leaves me in a hole. Next! Lol. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: NAM there kinda leaves me in a hole. Next! Lol. 0z RDPS does ya better and me too for that matter. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Clinton said: 0z RDPS does ya better and me too for that matter. Was checking that out just now, also, hi res nam is better. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Was checking that out just now, also, hi res nam is better. I can't remember 1 storm here that has produced 3-6 inches of snow with temps this cold. I worry in the end dry air will win out up my way. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 0z GFS 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 27 minutes ago, Clinton said: I can't remember 1 storm here that has produced 3-6 inches of snow with temps this cold. I worry in the end dry air will win out up my way. I understand that. It's hard to judge either way when it's this cold. Seeing reduced totals again this run is a good sign the models are picking up on that. Who knows? Other element that will make things difficult is the fact that at times there may be some blizzard conditions or near it with this event. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: I understand that. It's hard to judge either way when it's this cold. Seeing reduced totals again this run is a good sign the models are picking up on that. Who knows? Other element that will make things difficult is the fact that at times there may be some blizzard conditions or near it with this event. Looking at the GFS it looks like you will meet blizzard criteria between the hours of 48 to 60. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 Then wave 2 goes nuclear this run... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Then wave 2 goes nuclear this run... That one has my attention, dry air will not be a problem for that one. You are going to have a great week! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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