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Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma and Mid West Smasher.


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Took some pictures yesterday before and after shoveling the light and fluffy powder.  This was 30:1 ratio snow and it blew and drifted quite easily creating some beautiful drifts. That’s one of the pe

This might be the funniest thing yet. 🤣    

Pics from mom in desoto county MS. Looks like it might be lower end of forecast there, but 4-5” and still snowing. Why does she take better pics than me LOL

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I can't remember 1 storm here that has produced 3-6 inches of snow with temps this cold.  I worry in the end dry air will win out up my way.

It's not even really about the cold though.  It's about the weather gods deciding KC (and the general vicinity) is going to get screwed this year.  Look at hour 114 on the GFSv16.  Same temp in Dallas and KC.  Dallas gets the snow.  All these models stink.  So I still don't buy Dallas getting 25 inches of snow over the next week.  The GFS showed that for KC about a week ago and blew it.  But given that KC finds a way to be mediocre at pretty much everything, I'm sure the stars will align to ensure that, regardless of the reason, we'll get a mediocre amount of snow out of a winter that gave virtually the entire rest of the country bountiful snow -- even places that don't usually get it.  Man, I hate this city .  And not just because it's a heartbreaker every winter for snow lovers (KC has had below normal snow for 6 of the 9 winters since I moved back, including the lowest total on record and the only time ever to have three years in a row with single digit totals).  If my family wasn't here, I'd be gone in an instant.    

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STOP your whining !!!

What is a whiny person?
Whiny describes someone who annoyingly complains or frets about something, especially in a high-pitched voice. YUP !!! That sounds like you.

\\\\\ Discard your computer and its internet access to computer models.... here is your new Weather Stone forecasting tool !

Weather_Stone_-_geograph.org.uk_-_1763606.jpg

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What cold are we speaking of? Had 27F and strong Feb sun turning things to puddles here this afternoon. I take this as a sign this could come further north with the snow shield than the Op GFS wants to show. The R/GEMs sure hinting at that as well as the latest GVFv16

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

SMI looking good ......❄️

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021021300/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png&key=a2bd52f75c16c2fbc820408bd7c7dcaca5bb15e9a03e7666779720a7d257358a

You should do well over there Niko. Still need to see a few more last minute bumps NW for me to feel better about what some of these global models are showing.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Remember those storms I used to write about that connected my weather to yours? This looks like one of those "classics". Textbook if it works out right.

So nice to have you in the game bud. Cheers to us both doing well, and you doing even better!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Euro not bad for here..

 

20210213 0z Euro h96 Snow KCH.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

SMI looking good ......❄️

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021021300/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png&key=a2bd52f75c16c2fbc820408bd7c7dcaca5bb15e9a03e7666779720a7d257358a

The LES signal is looking more intriguing on this side of the lake.  That may be the wild card for Chicago as it stands right now besides the system snows.  Your area is sitting in a good position to get the better part of the storm for us up north.

 

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This system looks to come in two waves up this way as the main energy tracks up through the OHV and tries to go neg tilt but not quite all the way.  The first wave comes on Mon and then the the stronger wave on Tues.  This was the feature I was hoping to see the models pick up on over the weekend.  The GFS is still the flattest with this main energy while the EURO/UKIE are somewhat more amped.  

 

1.gif

 

 

Tonight's 00z suite has me more enthusiastic about a potential long duration LES/LEHS set up for NE IL and into NW IN. @indianajohn is in a sweet spot.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

The LES signal is looking more intriguing on this side of the lake.  That may be the wild card for Chicago as it stands right now besides the system snows.  Your area is sitting in a good position to get the better part of the storm for us up north.

 

I noticed the LES was cranking up for Chicago yesterday, is it positioned well for you to get in on that?

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Wind Chill Warning and WWA issued.  They are going conservative with 1-3 but with how things have gone around here this season it's a good call, hope I can do better though.

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind
  chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero. For the
  Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. For the Wind Chill Advisory,
  very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM this evening to
  noon CST Monday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 AM
  Sunday to noon CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until
  noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute. The cold wind
  chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30
  minutes.

Map shows I could get 3-4.

Tab3FileL.png?e399a03f03eb842bad1041198408f75a

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I noticed the LES was cranking up for Chicago yesterday, is it positioned well for you to get in on that?

Got 1.5” from that day which was on the lower end of the 2-4” forecast.  LES is fickle to begin with so anything that was falling from the sky was a bonus.

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Got 1.5” from that day which was on the lower end of the 2-4” forecast.  LES is fickle to begin with so anything that was falling from the sky was a bonus.

As it's modeled now it does not look like the LE will make it as far inland as the last one but this setup has more going for it.  Some locals should really get hit.

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34 minutes ago, Tony said:

As it's modeled now it does not look like the LE will make it as far inland as the last one but this setup has more going for it.  Some locals should really get hit.

12z NAM not looking bad at all for Sunday night into Monday

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15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Just as long as this doesn't hit Stasch. He's already thrown the towel on behalf of all Micigan. Seriously?? Need a tight gradient of 12" in mby to 1" in his. Gotta balance that nice Storm Warning and LES he just got a week ago. 

Deterministic and ensemble mean QPF for Monday night and Tuesday
is trending down as the system is tracking farther south and east.
This now looks like only an inch or two and mainly for areas
south and east of GRR. Another system later in the week (Thur-Fri)
takes a similar track and may be another near miss for us.
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7 hours ago, Tom said:

The LES signal is looking more intriguing on this side of the lake.  That may be the wild card for Chicago as it stands right now besides the system snows.  Your area is sitting in a good position to get the better part of the storm for us up north.

 

Tbh, I would not mind if this storm took a jog slightly more to the west. This will put me in the heavier snows.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

You should do well over there Niko. Still need to see a few more last minute bumps NW for me to feel better about what some of these global models are showing.

Yes, but a movement more to the NW will provide heavier amounts of snowfall for mby, but not complaining at all.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Houston is gonna see powder from this. The couple of times it snowed when I grew up there, we got slop.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Just now, FAR_Weather said:

Houston is gonna see powder from this. The couple of times it snowed when I grew up there, we got slop.

This is an unprecedented event for them down there.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

This is an unprecedented event for them down there.

Yes, it is. This level of cold happens once every 40 years on average. They haven't reached single digits since the infamous 1989 Barney rampage, and it looks like they will on Monday night. Coolest it ever got in my 13 years there was 16.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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24 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Yes, it is. This level of cold happens once every 40 years on average. They haven't reached single digits since the infamous 1989 Barney rampage, and it looks like they will on Monday night. Coolest it ever got in my 13 years there was 16.

Hard to picture Dallas, TX having highs in the teens and lows in the S.D's w a headline reading "Winterstorm Warning." Crazy! This goes for other places in the south as well.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

Wind Chill Warning and WWA issued.  They are going conservative with 1-3 but with how things have gone around here this season it's a good call, hope I can do better though.


...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind
  chills expected. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero. For the
  Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. For the Wind Chill Advisory,
  very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM this evening to
  noon CST Monday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 AM
  Sunday to noon CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until
  noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute. The cold wind
  chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30
  minutes.

Map shows I could get 3-4.

Tab3FileL.png?e399a03f03eb842bad1041198408f75a

I hope they are under doing the totals and we end up with 5 inches. They can always go up on totals!

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Just now, Jayhawker85 said:

I hope they are under doing the totals and we end up with 5 inches. They can always go up on totals!

Me too, I think it will all depend on how long it will take to saturate the air.  The earlier the snow starts tomorrow the better our totals will be.

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Houston is gonna see powder from this. The couple of times it snowed when I grew up there, we got slop.

Memphis is weird. The sloppy southern sliders always missed is to the south. If there’s precip around freezing, it’s rain or freezing rain. Most snowfalls came following an arctic front so straight powder. Wet snows happen, but less often

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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