Tony 893 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 18z totals look weak up this far north. Don't buy it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 18z GFS 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 Starting to look a lot more like a solid 5-6 out of the first part. I'm more than happy with that. The second part looks intense too. 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Starting to look a lot more like a solid 5-6 out of the first part. I'm more than happy with that. The second part looks intense too. GFS is looking strong on the storm Wednesday. Snow on top of snow! 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 Kuchera off 12z is crazy. Both storms. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 13 Author Report Share Posted February 13 21z RAP with some big totals along and south of I-70. We shall see if it holds. 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2019 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 Not too often you see MEG (Memphis NWS) put out a map like this. Memphis officially hasn't recieved a 6"+ storm since January 1988. You don't get into top 10 territory until 8.1". Can't find any tables, but theres numerous snowfalls in the 6-8" range as well prior to 1988. Nebraska has its moments, but MEM is the anti snow king. 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, Clinton said: 21z RAP with some big totals along and south of I-70. We shall see if it holds. Most runs of the first punch have placed me between 4-6. I'm good with that. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OmahaSnowFan 1375 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 The largest state in the country is almost entirely covered by a winter storm warning 6 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 13 Report Share Posted February 13 I like this person's humor at NWS. Wanted to share this for history's sake. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2019 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: The largest state in the country is almost entirely covered by a winter storm warning Criteria is relaxed to basically nothing the further south you get, but still very impressive. Especially with the cold/zr/snow mix happening so far south. Houston's high of 20 on Monday has me rolling. It couldn't get that cold here all winter until last week. 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 2 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 18z Euro: Wx Bell is using ridiculously high ratios of 30-1 so I would shave a few inches off these totals. 3 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro: Wx Bell is using ridiculously high ratios of 30-1 so I would shave a few inches off these totals. Very high snow ratios w temps in the "Single Digits" Monday nite. Very cold snowstorm. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5201 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said: Criteria is relaxed to basically nothing the further south you get, but still very impressive. Especially with the cold/zr/snow mix happening so far south. Houston's high of 20 on Monday has me rolling. It couldn't get that cold here all winter until last week. In Houston the WSW criteria is 0.15" of ice or 2" of snow. Yeah, not much. 3 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 0z HRRR 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5201 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 It's so odd seeing HGX mention blowing and drifting snow in Houston. 1 1 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Jayhawker85 65 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 0z HRRR The models are getting wetter and wetter! I’m loving it!! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said: The models are getting wetter and wetter! I’m loving it!! Me too! Models getting wetter is something we are not use to this year. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 12z NAM 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 3km NAM 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 0z RDPS 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 This is the odd storm where the outlier model, which is also definitely the most dry, is the euro. I still like a 4-6 call over my region for the 1st wave. Trends are our friends. If I get under that convective thunder band, I'll be one excited fella. 4 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 19 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: This is the odd storm where the outlier model, which is also definitely the most dry, is the euro. I still like a 4-6 call over my region for the 1st wave. Trends are our friends. If I get under that convective thunder band, I'll be one excited fella. I think your 4-6 is a good call on that first wave. I still worry about dry air here, I'll feel better when the flakes start to fly. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 12z GFS 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 Canadian looks awesome! 3 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 3z RAP 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, Niko said: Canadian looks awesome! Good luck my man. I hope we both get a great snow! 3 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5201 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 Every Kuchera run will be way overdone in Southeast Texas, even with sfc temps in the low 20s, there's still a massive warm nose to overcome which will slice and dice ratios. 3 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 GEFS avg at a foot depth through both events here. Great avg. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OKwx2k4 4211 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 Snow starting up early to my west. Been lightly flurrying for 3 days. Almost like it just can't wait to get started. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 I'm at 2 degrees with a dew point at -9 so I've got some saturating to do. 3 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16853 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Clinton said: I'm at 2 degrees with a dew point at -9 so I've got some saturating to do. 00z Euro is giving you and KC some hope...I like what I'm seeing in terms of LES/LEHS for MBY... 2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Snow starting up early to my west. Been lightly flurrying for 3 days. Almost like it just can't wait to get started. I like that comment and it def sounds like mother nature is gearing up for a wild ride down south. You are by far the most patient person on here waiting for a solid period of cold and snow.y winter patter. This is YOUR week to enjoy. I'm hopeful you'll get at least 10" of pure powder to enjoy with your family. I can imagine what it will look like down in OK with the rolling hills and open land. I recall driving through the Ozarks in NE OK and the beauty of the landscape. Now I can imagine what it will look like with a blanket of snow! 3 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16853 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 06z NAM coming in HOT for IN/S MI peeps...Chitown looking good as well... 06z NAM 3km... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16853 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 00z EPS... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16853 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 Many 00z EPS members throw back moisture NW of the Low into the Defo zone which will prob aid in better LEHS across NE IL. This is a great scenario for Chicagoland. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16853 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 The new GFSv16 has been rock steady since a couple days ago that this storm would track farther NW than the old GFS and other model guidance. It's not backing down and looking solid for Chitown. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16853 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 Boom! LOT pulls the trigger and issues a WSW for heavy snow across Cook county with 4-8” of snow expected. 1 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16853 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 @Clinton, you getting some good returns? Btw, 06z Euro did bump NW and showing a healthier defo zone swing through your area and up into the lower lakes. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Tom said: @Clinton, you getting some good returns? Btw, 06z Euro did bump NW and showing a healthier defo zone swing through your area and up into the lower lakes. Good morning and I'm getting some good snow. Very exciting, slept later than I meant to. How awesome to be getting moderate snow at 0 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 @mlgamer and @Jayhawker85looks like the snow is closing in on KC. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 The snow is ripping really good right now, visibilities are down and the coffee is flowing. RAP is looking good for the 3-5 inches I am expecting today. 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 Snow is ripping 6 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 Pic don't do justice but lovin it 3 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mlgamer 504 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 32 minutes ago, Clinton said: @mlgamer and @Jayhawker85looks like the snow is closing in on KC. Started snowing here roughly 5 AM...a steady snow continues with fairly small flakes. Still, I measured 1/2" on the deck a few minutes ago. I was out on I-70 west of town this morning and it was blowing and drifting in the low areas. Radar shows heavier snow may move into the area. A nice start anyway.... 1 Quote 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4") 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17 Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 Just extremely rare for this part of the country to see snow falling this hard at 0. Just got off the phone with my father who is 70 and he says he has never seen it here. I know other parts of the country get this every year but this is a real treat for me. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
kush61 45 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 ... and an almost identical track for another storm later this week ? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 Last nites Euro looks fantastic as well as other models as well. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 12z NAM looks great for you guys upstream. @Tom @jaster220 @Niko 1 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4398 Posted February 14 Author Report Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, kush61 said: ... and an almost identical track for another storm later this week ? Fingers crossed it maybe a little further east. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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