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Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma and Mid West Smasher.


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Took some pictures yesterday before and after shoveling the light and fluffy powder.  This was 30:1 ratio snow and it blew and drifted quite easily creating some beautiful drifts. That’s one of the pe

This might be the funniest thing yet. 🤣    

Pics from mom in desoto county MS. Looks like it might be lower end of forecast there, but 4-5” and still snowing. Why does she take better pics than me LOL

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Boom!  LOT pulls the trigger and issues a WSW for heavy snow across Cook county with 4-8” of snow expected.

Wow awesome. Im so confused as to why GRR downplaying this so much to the point that it’s an event not even worthy of any headline

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34 minutes ago, Niko said:

Is this a beauty or what....

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/72a8c7aa6ceafd218cc251b4189fa93b.jpg&key=7c8889ba16a923c9eceb73d5f69e87c7a79113c76a625bbb0341a18318a70130

Man I am loving the NW trend. LE is also going to be HUGE so could be looking at some impressive numbers when all said and done. 

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4 minutes ago, Tony said:

Man I am loving the NW trend. LE is also going to be HUGE so could be looking at some impressive numbers when all said and done. 

Exactly......that NW trend has been the theme this year. You guys in Chicago could be looking at some high accumulations b4 all set and done.  I have a feeling that by the time these 2 storms are done by weeks end, there will be huge amounts of snow otg.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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52 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z NAM looks great for you guys upstream.  @Tom @jaster220 @Niko

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book.

In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book.

In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck!

Thank you buddy as of right now and looking at the radar it looks like the old NAM may have done the best job, we'll see how it finishes out.

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47 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

Wow awesome. Im so confused as to why GRR downplaying this so much to the point that it’s an event not even worthy of any headline

They seem to always be late to the game. I’m sure @jaster220has something to say about this!

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13 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book.

In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck!

FWIW, the EPS has been trending wetter and better for us on the NW side of the storm.  @Niko @kush61 have been locked in for a couple days now.
 

 I’m digging the better LEHS signal into NE IL and the better looking defo zone blossoming NW.  I want to see the UKIE/Euro and Canadian come on board.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Pic don't do justice but lovin it

16133106300983370560030401715635.jpg

Enjoy the #powderday....day time snows are so much more fun.  You’ll remember this day for years to come!

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Good morning! Just woke up and looked out the window and we have about .5 of the fluffy fresh snow on the ground. So glad the dry air didn’t win! Looks like we about to have a break before the 2nd round moves in.  Looks like it will be a long snowy Valentine’s Day!!

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37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx buddy. Honestly tho Idk what to make of this storm. All these Op maps via Kuchie are eye candy pink and reds on Valentine's Day. Then I see the EPS with it's "few inches" and that has been more the reality this season here. The take-away for me is the trend which at least has not been worse or further SE. Another plowable snow is my goal. Anything bigger would be a plus in my book.

In the meantime you and OKwx enjoy a storm of your own for a change. Good Luck!

The Hi Rez euro gives me a dusting.  The gfs is barely worth mentioning.  GRR is being realistic.  I think you’ll do decent 3-4” at the worst but these maps showing a foot in SMI are insane and not worth taking seriously.  Otherwise the GRR NWS should look for a new job.  

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Just now, Tom said:

It’s amazing how much different the v16 is compared to the older GFS.  I think it retires this week iirc.  @Tonymentioned it not long ago.

Yep, the old GFS is gone. New one rocks! More updated and better equipped.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

It’s amazing how much different the v16 is compared to the older GFS.  I think it retires this week iirc.  @Tonymentioned it not long ago.

Used to be a decent model. Not sure what happened to it  but time to go.

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2 minutes ago, shakjen said:

My forecast from LOT says “new snow accumulation less than one inch” this map says 8.2”. Lol. One of them is way off. 

I'm going to say LOT is way off!

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29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The Hi Rez euro gives me a dusting.  The gfs is barely worth mentioning.  GRR is being realistic.  I think you’ll do decent 3-4” at the worst but these maps showing a foot in SMI are insane and not worth taking seriously.  Otherwise the GRR NWS should look for a new job.  

Looking forward to the forecast discussion at 330 to say the least lol. Idt ive ever seen such disparity

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Is this a beauty or what....

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210214/72a8c7aa6ceafd218cc251b4189fa93b.jpg&key=7c8889ba16a923c9eceb73d5f69e87c7a79113c76a625bbb0341a18318a70130

Soooooo, 12+ via Euro WeenieBell map and 3" via my office. Someone's busting bad it would seem. Almost comical the differences 1 day out. It's why I've had a very difficult time this season getting on board with any system. And so far, most have found some way to avoid delivering here so my hesitancy is justified sadly.

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

Wow awesome. Im so confused as to why GRR downplaying this so much to the point that it’s an event not even worthy of any headline

Welcome to your new home office! There are a couple of old-timers up in GR that won't pay us down along the southern tier any attention until 8" is OTG. That's not much of an exaggeration either, as it actually happened here 11-29-11. If it's not a lock via LES they won't react. A last-minute trending synoptic event is almost always an "F grade" with this office. It's been beyond frustrating the 15-ish years I've followed winter wx in this region. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

15z RAP looks impressive.  Some LES for Tom.

snku_acc.conus.png

It’s looking better in today’s 12z suite so far.  This could be turning into quite the LES event!  

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This looks to be a very weak event for KC....again. Tuesday into Wednesday looks weak to for KC also.  Barley snowing here and radar is thinning out. Maybe it will pulse up...NAM suggests we see an uptick in snow tonight through 2pm tomorrow but doesn't have much support from the other models. ( I guess I shouldn't pay too much attention to the model data as it showed inches and inches of snow all of last week for KC and we received ZERO!) Only snow we received was last weekend. 

Good luck to all the ones that score big here. Happy snow day!!!

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2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

This looks to be a very weak event for KC....again. Tuesday into Wednesday looks weak to for KC also.  Barley snowing here and radar is thinning out. Maybe it will pulse up...NAM suggests we see an uptick in snow tonight through 2pm tomorrow but doesn't have much support from the other models. ( I guess I shouldn't pay too much attention to the model data as it showed inches and inches of snow all of last week for KC and we received ZERO!) Only snow we received was last weekend. 

Good luck to all the ones that score big here. Happy snow day!!!

Don’t worry Mike there is a nice wave moving up from Witchita now that should be here in a couple hours 

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1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Don’t worry Mike there is a nice wave moving up from Witchita now that should be here in a couple hours 

Looks good on radar in central Kan, the lull was expected.  I just measure 2.7in. so the first wave was a hit.  I should have 2 more waves before the snow ends Monday afternoon.

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18z HRRR..... like the NAM, it even pulls enough moisture back into Iowa to drop a light coating in Cedar Rapids.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

18z HRRR..... like the NAM, it even pulls enough moisture back into Iowa to drop a light coating in Cedar Rapids.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Hope the trends continue but as is modeled looking like an Epic event for a huge chunk of the country

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2 minutes ago, Tony said:

Lake Shore drive could be shut down again for a 3rd time in history

This will be big...."Epic." Chicago is looking golden and locked.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I'm sitting in a good spot today, light snow keeps redeveloping over mby with heavier returns a few hours to my west moving my way.  The snow is drifting but I was able to measure 3.1 in which sadly makes this my largest snowfall of the year.  Hoping to add a few more inches tonight and tomorrow.  @OKwx2k4 looks like things are ramping up for you.  Good luck to everyone!

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Winter storm warnings issued for Cook and points south. WWA for points west.  opening line of LOT's AFD

Boy, what a shift in forecast model guidance compared to 24 hours
ago! Based on a discussion with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC),
the changes have to do with a trend toward a stronger system
overall, and hence better moisture transport to its backside and in
our neck of the woods.

 

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Just now, FV-Mike said:

Winter storm warnings issued for Cook and pints south. WWA for points west.  opening line of LOT's AFD



Boy, what a shift in forecast model guidance compared to 24 hours
ago! Based on a discussion with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC),
the changes have to do with a trend toward a stronger system
overall, and hence better moisture transport to its backside and in
our neck of the woods.

 

Bam!  That’s what I was hoping for.

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