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Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma and Mid West Smasher.


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1 minute ago, Tom said:

I wonder if LOT will expand the watch’s and include a couple more counties.  

They have a little time to adjust so they are probably waiting for the 0z runs to see if there are any changes to going forecast. 

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Took some pictures yesterday before and after shoveling the light and fluffy powder.  This was 30:1 ratio snow and it blew and drifted quite easily creating some beautiful drifts. That’s one of the pe

This might be the funniest thing yet. 🤣    

Pics from mom in desoto county MS. Looks like it might be lower end of forecast there, but 4-5” and still snowing. Why does she take better pics than me LOL

Posted Images

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm sitting in a good spot today, light snow keeps redeveloping over mby with heavier returns a few hours to my west moving my way.  The snow is drifting but I was able to measure 3.1 in which sadly makes this my largest snowfall of the year.  Hoping to add a few more inches tonight and tomorrow.  @OKwx2k4 looks like things are ramping up for you.  Good luck to everyone!

Clinton, I hadn't noticed that this afternoon Wichita upgraded to a WSW for a lot of their forecast area for higher accumulations...I wonder if that might be expanded towards you by KC NWS later.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
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GRR has issued a WWA for my area.  2-4”.  This really trended north.  4-7” for points SE of my area.  Still haven’t issued an updated discussion.  But what a fail.   I know there is a sharp cutoff but they completed disregarded all the models outside of the old gfs.  They have not been good this winter.   I guess I put too much faith in the experts.   When it all comes down to it, anyone can read a computer and guess.  They had 2-4” before the Arctic blast and storm last week and ended up going with 1-2 feet last minute lol.  

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2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Clinton, I hadn't noticed that this afternoon Wichita upgraded to a WSW for a lot of their forecast area for higher accumulations...I wonder if that might be expanded towards you by KC NWS later.

That would be awesome.  I just looked at the 19z RAP and it indicated I could add 4 more inches.  How is it going for you today?

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9 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

O'hare point forecast updated to 6-10 inches

This is getting really interesting.  I’m starting to get pretty excited about this. Haven’t seen a set up like this for Chicago in a very long tome.  Very rare to say the least.  @Jaycee, your dream may come true!

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Just now, Clinton said:

That would be awesome.  I just looked at the 19z RAP and it indicated I could add 4 more inches.  How is it going for you today?

I picked up a solid 1.5" this morning. I was hoping for another inch from the wave moving in, but it is pretty light so far.

Looks like I need to make a fast trip to Chicago...lol

  • Snow 1
  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1 - 4.5"); Season total (12.4")
  • 20-21 monthly: Oct (0.6"); Nov (Trace); Dec (Trace); Jan (7.6"); Feb (4.2"); Mar (Trace) as of 3/17
  • 20-21 temps: Oct(-3.2); Nov (+4.8); Dec (+4.5); Jan (+5.1); Feb (-11.3); Mar (+7.5) as of 3/17
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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

This is getting really interesting.  I’m starting to get pretty excited about this. Haven’t seen a set up like this for Chicago in a very long tome.  Very rare to say the least.  @Jaycee, your dream may come true!

Don't want to get our hopes up but have to say several of the last several events had lake enhancement and LE so have to go with the trend. If the numbers pan out as advertised then we are in for a treat

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Is there an area nearby that measures downtown Chicago? I know ORD is technically Chicago’s measuring station. But if there’s going to be a variance of amounts, hopefully someone can get a measurement near LSD.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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  • Tonight
     

    Tonight: Snow, mainly after 11pm.  Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -1. North northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

    Chance Snow
    then Snow

    Low: 10 °F

  • Washington's
    Birthday

    Washington's Birthday: Snow, mainly before 1pm.  High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -4. North wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

    Snow

    High: 18 °F

  • Monday
    Night

    Monday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times.  Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -1. North northeast wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches.

    Heavy Snow

    Low: 10 °F

  • Tuesday
     

    Tuesday: Snow likely before 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

    Snow Likely

    High: 20 °F

    Sweet!❄️ Storm Total so far is calling for 6-10"+

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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4 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Is there an area nearby that measures downtown Chicago? I know ORD is technically Chicago’s measuring station. But if there’s going to be a variance of amounts, hopefully someone can get a measurement near LSD.

Midway is the only other official station...maybe there are some COOP’s in the city.  

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Personally think NWS should have gone w a WSW, not an WWA. "Big Mistake" on their end. These snow number accumulations meet warning criteria. Not sure what they are thinking.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Personally think NWS should have gone w a WSW, not an WWA. "Big Mistake" on their end. These snow number accumulations meet warning criteria. Not sure what they are thinking.

Yep. They could upgrade but you can see the GRR influence in the conference call. I'm now less than a county north of a Warning. How frustrating if I'm again left standing on the sidelines.

IWX

d cause reduced visibility in mainly rural areas.
Drifting snow will be an issue with the steady winds making some
roads impassable at times. taking all these factors into account
and extensive collaboration, it was agreed to place much of the
forecast area in a Winter Storm Warning and cover NW areas in an
advisory. If any further NW shift occurs in the track, this area
could also need to be included in the warning. Now you may ask why
we didn`t adjust the timing of the headlines to match the
greatest threat. Since there may not be a lull in the snowfall for
all areas and some minor travel issues are possible late tonight
into Monday morning it was decided to keep headlines as simple as
possible.

While confidence has increased, some changes in the forecast are
still possible with the axis of the heaviest snowfall possibly
still shifting.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Yep. They could upgrade but you can see the GRR influence in the conference call. I'm now less than a county north of a Warning. How frustrating if I'm again left standing on the sidelines.

IWX


d cause reduced visibility in mainly rural areas.
Drifting snow will be an issue with the steady winds making some
roads impassable at times. taking all these factors into account
and extensive collaboration, it was agreed to place much of the
forecast area in a Winter Storm Warning and cover NW areas in an
advisory. If any further NW shift occurs in the track, this area
could also need to be included in the warning. Now you may ask why
we didn`t adjust the timing of the headlines to match the
greatest threat. Since there may not be a lull in the snowfall for
all areas and some minor travel issues are possible late tonight
into Monday morning it was decided to keep headlines as simple as
possible.

While confidence has increased, some changes in the forecast are
still possible with the axis of the heaviest snowfall possibly
still shifting.

 

I strongly believe that by tomorrow mornings 4am package or at the very latest by the 4pm package, we will get upgraded to a WSW. I am thinking that they wanted to separate both parts, so w part 1 going w a WWA and part 2 will eventually put us in a WSW that will involve the bigger snow accumulations.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Already snowing at my dad's house near Houston. They were supposed to get freezing rain till midnight.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

That would be awesome.  I just looked at the 19z RAP and it indicated I could add 4 more inches.  How is it going for you today?

This has been as close to a complete bust as possible without actually being a complete bust.  According to all the models, KC is done.  And we got MAYBE an inch despite all models as of this morning giving us between 3 and 7 inches today/tonight.   It's remarkable how bad the models are and how well KC avoids snow.

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2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

This has been as close to a complete bust as possible without actually being a complete bust.  According to all the models, KC is done.  And we got MAYBE an inch despite all models as of this morning giving us between 3 and 7 inches today/tonight.   It's remarkable how bad the models are and how well KC avoids snow.

Dang it, I hoped you guys would do better.  I hope the band tomorrow adds to your totals.

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3 hours ago, Sciascia said:

Is there an area nearby that measures downtown Chicago? I know ORD is technically Chicago’s measuring station. But if there’s going to be a variance of amounts, hopefully someone can get a measurement near LSD.

I usually do! Haha but I’m actually in Miami right now, where it’s 80 degrees at 7pm. I hope the snow sticks around til I’m gone, I have a feeling the lake effect will pummel my area (Edgewater/Evanston, less than 1/4 mile inland from the lake). 

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14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Dang it, I hoped you guys would do better.  I hope the band tomorrow adds to your totals.

I realize this is somewhat off topic, but if you look at each decade prior to 2010, going back to 1890 (130 years!), there were 2 decades (1920s and 2000s) that had two seasons with single digit snowfall totals.  Every other decade had one or no seasons with single digit totals.  Since 2010, there have been 4!  And KC is currently just shy of 10 inches for this season.  Guess when I moved here.  2011.

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23 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

This has been as close to a complete bust as possible without actually being a complete bust.  According to all the models, KC is done.  And we got MAYBE an inch despite all models as of this morning giving us between 3 and 7 inches today/tonight.   It's remarkable how bad the models are and how well KC avoids snow.

The dry air was definitely too strong today. I’m in Lawrence and i think we have about 2 inches today. Hopeful for another band as the low moves by tomorrow morning

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12 minutes ago, Jaycee said:

I usually do! Haha but I’m actually in Miami right now, where it’s 80 degrees at 7pm. I hope the snow sticks around til I’m gone, I have a feeling the lake effect will pummel my area (Edgewater/Evanston, less than 1/4 mile inland from the lake). 

Hope you get to enjoy some of it when you get back. Will be a great hit for your area.

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Local forecasters are saying that SEMI will go to a WSW by tomorrow for part 2 of the storm, as heavy snow spreads late in the day, right after a small lull.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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16 minutes ago, Niko said:

Local forecasters are saying that SEMI will go to a WSW by tomorrow for part 2 of the storm, as heavy snow spreads late in the day, right after a small lull.

Your going to get crushed. Tomorrow's storm and the system behind it look amazing for your area.

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31 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The dry air was definitely too strong today. I’m in Lawrence and i think we have about 2 inches today. Hopeful for another band as the low moves by tomorrow morning

It looks like we have a good chance of adding a extra 2 in tomorrow. Also think we could add a few more Tuesday night thru Wednesday morning.

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It looks like we have a good chance of adding a extra 2 in tomorrow. Also think we could add a few more Tuesday night thru Wednesday morning.

I hope so! This is our true last chance of winter so I’m all for it before spring settles in!

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00z HRRR

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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57 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Your going to get crushed. Tomorrow's storm and the system behind it look amazing for your area.

Thanks amigo..they are calling for 8-12"+. 😀❄️ Im going to lowball it and say 6-10"+.

You do well also w 6"+.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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This is the newest HRW WRF-ARW at midnight tomorrow. Great googly-moogly. Obviously still snowing to the effect of 19.3 at ORD by the end of the run.

E591BB50-CA4D-4F77-8BEB-51C7BE8338E8.jpeg

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...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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Is there to be any "thunder snow" accompanying this system ?

Last time that happened in this vicinity was Jan. 14 1999, Mel Lastman called in the army to help shovel !

 

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Gulf enhancement is going to be evident in Southeast Texas. Already thundersnow confirmed there.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Memphis already has an inch from a weak wave earlier today. Oh, and there's another storm Wednesday after 6-10" with this one. There probably hasn't been snow on top of snow there since the 80s. I've been at work most of the day so I've been trying to catch up on everything going on everywhere lol. UNL cancelled in person stuff tomorrow and Tuesday, but still has virtual. Fortunately both of my proffesors tomorrow cancelled! 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Roads in Houston are a mess cuz the rain earlier made TxDOT's effort to treat roads futile. Already multiple freeways closed and a pileup.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2"/hr rates reported near San Antonio. 

The absurdity of what's happening in Texas right now is unreal. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It's starting at my dad's house in Spring, just North of Houston.

16697.jpeg

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 26.8"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Jim Cantore is reporting from Dallas, TX and could not believe my eyes at what I was seeing. Whiteout conditions w temps in the teens and wcf below zero. They have more accumulating snow in their forecast for Wednesday.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I honestly can deal with being missed this week from the snow events. Seeing the pics of Dallas,Houston,Memphis etc is surreal. Well worth it!!!  When they put the live shots up on TWC  - it's taking some getting used to when the locations are not Chicago, MPLS BUT Dallas??  Just glad to be around to witness this history.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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