Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Thundersnow between Huntsville and Waco,TX-- unreal. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Jim Cantore is reporting from Dallas, TX and could not believe my eyes at what I was seeing. Whiteout conditions w temps in the teens and wcf below zero. They have more accumulating snow in their forecast for Wednesday. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 I honestly can deal with being missed this week from the snow events. Seeing the pics of Dallas,Houston,Memphis etc is surreal. Well worth it!!! When they put the live shots up on TWC - it's taking some getting used to when the locations are not Chicago, MPLS BUT Dallas?? Just glad to be around to witness this history. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Saying that the 3z RAP is coming in hot is an understatement. To quote Tim Kitzrow in NBA Jam, it’s ON FIRE! 3 1 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Picking up what will likely be the heaviest portion of this storm for me. Beautiful night. Seeing TX covered in WSW today was something incredible. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Picking up what will likely be the heaviest portion of this storm for me. Beautiful night. Seeing TX covered in WSW today was something incredible. How much do you have so far and on the ground? Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 One of my HS friends posted a vid to his Snapchat story of straight up blizzard conditions near New Braunfels. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Bottom center is San Antonio - KSAT . from what I understand this is very 1899 like. 6 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: I honestly can deal with being missed this week from the snow events. Seeing the pics of Dallas,Houston,Memphis etc is surreal. Well worth it!!! When they put the live shots up on TWC - it's taking some getting used to when the locations are not Chicago, MPLS BUT Dallas?? Just glad to be around to witness this history. 1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said: Picking up what will likely be the heaviest portion of this storm for me. Beautiful night. Seeing TX covered in WSW today was something incredible. I heard this the 1st time in history the entire state of TX is covered with a Winter Storm Warning. We are witnessing something truly historic. Quite the ferocious Winter's onslaught upon our nation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tom said: I heard this the 1st time in history the entire state of TX is covered with a Winter Storm Warning. We are witnessing something truly historic. Quite the ferocious Winter's onslaught upon our nation. First winter storm warning issued by the NWS Brownsville office since Groundhog Day 2011. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 00z Euro... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 A couple days ago, I noticed the EPS and GEFS members sniffing out the potential of the second part of this storm to produce a more healthy looking storm. It took till yesterday for the models to trend stronger which I was hoping they would and now it is looking likely we will see a classic comma shape look on radar come tomorrow later today. The latest HRRR satellite animation below has that classic winter storm look... @OKwx2k4, there is that Arklatex storm we have been searching for! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Some of these obs coming out of Texas are simply hard to believe- but true. I can't wait to see pics in the daylight. Austin KAUS 150653Z 33010G21KT 1/4SM R17L/2000V3000FT +SN BLSN VV004M11/M13 A3033 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/0624 SLP287 SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0015 T11061128 $ San Antonio- KSAT 150651Z 33016G22KT 1/2SM R13R/3500V4500FT SN VV007 M11/M14 A3031 RMK AO2 PRESRR SLP267 SNINCR 1/2 P0005 T11111139 $ 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Most, if not all, CAM's paint double digit totals for ORD and points east in Cook county. I could see LOT expand the warnings into DuPage and even Lake county given the set up. As much as I wanna go all in on the 10"+ totals for MBY, I feel that this will be a nowcast event to see where exactly this lake plume will develop and meander. I've seen similar situations as this one, whereby one single band sets up and it ended up over achieving in counties that weren't in warnings. The way I look at it is, the models are certainly on board that the lake plume will develop but they don't necessarily depict the end result in terms of exact location of heaviest accumulation. The very high totals being spit out is a clear indication to me that the lake plume means business. I really believe this set up could produce some lollipop totals for someone in NE IL that could push 18" totals. I just got this gut feeling this could be one for the history books. Latest HRRR.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 I literally just read the latest AFD out from LOT late this evening and their thinking of possibly expanding the warnings mirrors my thoughts above. They also are impressed with the evolution of this storm system, esp tonight's snowfall which has trended with more snow. Quote 235 FXUS63 KLOT 150450 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1050 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 .UPDATE... 924 PM CST Round 1 of snow--the appetizer of what looks to be a four course meal--has overspread much of the area this evening. This is shaping up to be a highly challenging forecast to message and communicate given so many moving parts (and rapid changes in guidance). Quote Made no changes to the location of the Winter Storm Warnings with this update with explicit deterministic amounts near to just under criteria for a 24-hour period, but note that based on the incoming guidance, imagine we`ll need to consider upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings for some of the area, perhaps Livingston, Grundy, the rest of Will, DuPage, and Lake IL counties. Will let the mid shift get one more look at things, but have bumped totals up a bit across the board with this update. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 44 minutes ago, Tom said: A couple days ago, I noticed the EPS and GEFS members sniffing out the potential of the second part of this storm to produce a more healthy looking storm. It took till yesterday for the models to trend stronger which I was hoping they would and now it is looking likely we will see a classic comma shape look on radar come tomorrow later today. The latest HRRR satellite animation below has that classic winter storm look... @OKwx2k4, there is that Arklatex storm we have been searching for! This is awesome development. We're back to where WPC had us on their map 2/10. Could be flirting with bliz conditions if the NAM and HRRR are correct. Should have "that feel" whether it verifies or not tho. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: This is awesome development. We're back to where WPC had us on their map 2/10. Could be flirting with bliz conditions if the NAM and HRRR are correct. Should have "that feel" whether it verifies or not tho. The last min trends are def in your favor buddy! I'm excited for you and the rest of the S MI crew who have been neglected this season. This one is shaping up to be a nice storm for you guys. Meantime, 00z EPS trending wetter/better for NE IL into S MI... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well, KC managed to be the big LOSER again....only a dusting here in my part of KC yesterday. It was so bad that even the sun came out for awhile yesterday afternoon just for fun. I have never been so let down by the model promises of accumulating snow over the last 8 days. Congrats to all that are scoring big with this storm, it's quite impressive what it is doing that far south. After today, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and northern Louisiana will have recorded more snowfall this winter then KC. (I just threw up) Nonetheless, what an impressive cold snap this has been. (Tom, you forecasted this, nice job)I believe this will fall in the top 5 here in KC for the coldest 2 week stretch in our history. Set a record low this morning, I dropped to -13 at my house. May hit -20 tonight. RAP model......its trying to give KC 1" of snow this afternoon, COME ON BABY!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Good morning, so happy to see the models really trended the right way for Jaster, Niko, and all the Mich crew. Currently I have light snow falling with a temp at -6. I got some new accumulation last night, not sure how much with it blowing around. I will muster the courage to get out and measure once it's light out (so cold). Hope my KC friends can pull some snow their way this morning, I've been very lucky, 30 miles to my NW has about half the snow. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 47 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: Well, KC managed to be the big LOSER again....only a dusting here in my part of KC yesterday. It was so bad that even the sun came out for awhile yesterday afternoon just for fun. I have never been so let down by the model promises of accumulating snow over the last 8 days. Congrats to all that are scoring big with this storm, it's quite impressive what it is doing that far south. After today, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and northern Louisiana will have recorded more snowfall this winter then KC. (I just threw up) Nonetheless, what an impressive cold snap this has been. (Tom, you forecasted this, nice job)I believe this will fall in the top 5 here in KC for the coldest 2 week stretch in our history. Set a record low this morning, I dropped to -13 at my house. May hit -20 tonight. RAP model......its trying to give KC 1" of snow this afternoon, COME ON BABY!! Rooting hard for ya Mike, hope the comma head gets far enough west for ya to get an inch or two. Stay warm it will be football season again before we know it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Picked up an additional 0.6" since last midnight measurement. Overnight total so far 1.4" and its currently still snowing lightly. It feels like the arctic tundra out there with the wind blowing the snow sideways. My goodness, its gonna be brutal out there today. Current temp of +1F w/ a N wind sustained at 10mph. #Chiberia 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 @Clinton I see the ULL on the satellite radar run, I see the spin. It looks to be a on a good track. Radar echoes are increasing in south central KS, we'll see how this plays out. You certainly stand a better chance then KC, but, we just might have a snowy afternoon. Looking over some snow reports in Texas, some 10"+ amounts down there from this storm. Parts of KC are only at 7-9 inches for the whole winter. I'm okay each winter with Iowa and Nebraska beating us with snow totals, but TEXAS???? BTW, how cold is it. Some of my fleet has froze up on us this morning as we treat parking lots. These diesel trucks gel up, I have been in the snow business a long time, 20 years.....never had trucks gel up on us. ITS COLD!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Also omg talk about a bullseye lol! The arrow in this graphic literally points to my exact location almost. My area is going to have so much snow otg it’s actually hard for me to even imagine what I’ll be walking into when I get back 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: @Clinton I see the ULL on the satellite radar run, I see the spin. It looks to be a on a good track. Radar echoes are increasing in south central KS, we'll see how this plays out. You certainly stand a better chance then KC, but, we just might have a snowy afternoon. Looking over some snow reports in Texas, some 10"+ amounts down there from this storm. Parts of KC are only at 7-9 inches for the whole winter. I'm okay each winter with Iowa and Nebraska beating us with snow totals, but TEXAS???? BTW, how cold is it. Some of my fleet has froze up on us this morning as we treat parking lots. These diesel trucks gel up, I have been in the snow business a long time, 20 years.....never had trucks gel up on us. ITS COLD!!! Texas having a snowier winter than us is a tough pill to swallow. The radar indeed looks great, the snow is further west than some models are showing and it looks stronger. I am currently at -7 with a WC of -23. Good luck today! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 hours ago, snowstorm83 said: How much do you have so far and on the ground? Looks like only about 4.5-5". Kuchera maps were excessive for this event. Still snowing currently. Snow should taper off in the next hour. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, OKwx2k4 said: Looks like only about 4.5-5". Kuchera maps were excessive for this event. Still snowing currently. Snow should taper off in the next hour. Nice snow, what your local office saying about tomorrow nights snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Hard to tell for sure because the snow has been blowing around so much, out here in the open, but looks like we picked up 1.5" overnight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 My current storm total is 3.5in which means I picked up .40 last night. Snow has started falling again, nice flake size. Hoping for another 1-2 today. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 That's awesome. I am up in Lake County. Would love for the Lake Effect to shift a but more north. Hopefully you give us some of that powder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks like 2" or so fell imby and all hell breaks loose tanite, as I am expecting to get 8-12"+. Grand storm total easily 12"+. This will be a a very cold monster snowstorm. Right now temps are at 8F under light snow. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Last nite's Euro was fantastic. This storm is loaded and locked. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Not sure if anyone seen this, but RAP and HRRR models are showing possible "Blizzard" conditions for the Detroit Metro area w widespread 12"+ amounts. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just been upgraded to a Winterstorm Warning! Finally! I knew it was only a matter of time! Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1010 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 MIZ063-069-070-075-076-082-083-160000- /O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210216T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.210215T2300Z-210216T1700Z/ St. Clair-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Port Huron, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 1010 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches. * WHERE...St. Clair, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and especially the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow re intensifies toward 6 pm this evening. Snow becomes heavy at times tonight with an additional 6 to 9 inches expected before diminishing Tuesday morning. Highest snowfall totals expected from the Lake Huron shoreline southward through metro Detroit, Ann Arbor and near the Ohio border. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. 4 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Neither of my (divorced) parents have had power since 2:30 this morning. 3 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 This lake plume is nasty! Nearly zero viz in downtown Chicago with whiteout conditions. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Niko said: Not sure if anyone seen this, but RAP and HRRR models are showing possible "Blizzard" conditions for the Detroit Metro area w widespread 12"+ amounts. Wow that would be the icing on the cake! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Tom said: This lake plume is nasty! Nearly zero viz in downtown Chicago with whiteout conditions. Starting to move more inland so hope to get in on this action 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Wow that would be the icing on the cake! Indeed, but correct me if I am wrong amigo... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Niko said: Indeed, but correct me if I am wrong amigo... No I noticed that also. You may get a blizzard warning very soon. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2021 Report Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tony said: Starting to move more inland so hope to get in on this action It wasn’t modeled to do so till later this afternoon. Another reason why LES is so hard to forecast. It’s always a nowcast event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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