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Valentines and Presidents Day Oklahoma and Mid West Smasher.


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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Wow, looks great out there.  How much would say fell so far?

Walking through it, felt like at least 3, maybe 4 inches of fresh powder.

I’m supposed to meet someone in Itasca around 6pm, but I’m beginning to doubt that’ll happen.

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...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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NOAA: ❄️👍 4pm package!

The potential for rather high liquid to snow ratios remains on track
as a deep saturated layer to 600 mb evolves with nearly isothermal
conditions around -13c/-15c once wedge of relatively mild air (-8c)
around H7 within the evening period of isentropic lift gives way to
the extended period of deformation lift. This should yield ratios of
15:1-20:1 depending on the rate of snowfall at any given place/time.
Low static stability within this layer will further enhance lift
with pockets of convective instability possibly bringing locally
higher snowfall rates. This seems to be supported so far by the
convective nature of some elements within the surge of moisture
lifting north towards the area per regional radar/satellite over the
southern Ohio into Tennessee Valley regions.
This all supports a swath of rather heavy snowfall totals (certainly
compared to any other event this season). Suspect storm totals of 6 to 10 inches
should be common with locally higher snow totals not out of the
question by any means. 
Very cold conditions will prevail throughout this event as highs
reach the mid teens late today and settle back into the single
digits to around 10 above overnight and rebound only into the 15 to
20 degree range on Tuesday afternoon. Northeast to north winds will
also increase as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of
the system. With gusts to 20 mph or more at times, expect wind
chills readings hovering around zero this afternoon to fall to 5 to
10 below zero at times overnight into early Tuesday. With clearing
skies and lighter winds Tuesday night, would expect very cold low
temperatures as radiational cooling will be maximized over the fresh
snow pack. Will lower temperatures into the 5 to 15 below zero range
roughly, but would be very surprised if some locations did not fall
further than that.
Finally, wintry weather will persist for the remainder of the next as well
with another good shot at accumulating snow coming by Thursday into
Thursday night as the next Pacific shortwave now coming onshore over
the Pacific Northwest today digs into the southern plains and then
lifts into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley as another northern stream
wave attempts to phase with it to some degree. 

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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31 minutes ago, shakjen said:

Same here although my snow is not as heavy, just steady light snow. But the winds are picking up and blowing this light stuff around pretty easily. 

Radar looking good for much of N IL to get some good synoptic snows all night long. This storm certainly trended in the positive direction for many of us.

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3 hours ago, whatitdo said:

@jaster220 looks like you got that winter storm warning! Congrats man

Thanks!

The GRR disco..

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

We have not made major changes to our on-going forecast. We are
considering upgrading a few counties in the I-69 area to a Winter
Storm Warning since it now seems snowfall amounts, gusty winds and
low wind chills will all be factors in this storm tonight.

We have increased the snowfall amounts around a inch in most
places in our CWA. That is the result of most of the recent
model guidance is suggesting this. Note too that the last 8 runs,
in a row, of the RAP and HRRR have had nearly the same storm
total precipitation across our CWA. That would be about 0.6" at
JXN, 0.5" at LAN and 0.3" at GRR. The 12z run of the NAM and the
HREF are similar to those amounts. This means a 5 to 8 inch
snowfall for most of our southern 2/3 of our CWA.

It should too that snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour are
expected for 3-5 hours in the I-69 area late tonight, this by
itself will cause significant travel issues.

Winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 will cause significant
blowing and drifting of the snow and also cause wind chills to be
in the -10 to -20 range.

Latest AFD mentions 6-8+ and gusts to 30 mph. Gonna rock it at home and that latest Euro with 12+ for both of us looks awesome! Commute at 11 pm should be interesting to say the least

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Snow picking up and winds are getting gusty.  Hope this lasts into the night.  

U will be BURIED

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

The lake plume is shifting west and only a few miles away from me.  ORD reporting 1/4 mile viz.  Conditions are deteriorating quickly.  Snow is blowing and drifting.   It.  Looks. Amazing.

Going to be wild! Can't wait to see how much you end up with.

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Snow has begun and it came w a bang. Winds are starting up as well. It will be one heck of a snowy nite here in the Detroit Metro area. Let the fun begin.....❄️

Current temp at 14F w moderate snow & windy conditions

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA: updated and upped snowfall amounts

Winter Storm Warning
Issued: 6:10 PM Feb. 15, 2021 – National Weather Service
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
inches or more.

* WHERE...Macomb, Washtenaw, Lenawee, Monroe, Oakland and Wayne
Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread snow will become heavy at times
tonight. Highest snowfall rates are expected between 9 PM and 3
AM with hourly snowfall rates reaching and exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Snow will then weaken in intensity but continue through
the morning commute. Total snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10
inches or more are expected with highest amounts generally east of a
line from Adrian to Livonia to Utica. Northwest winds of 20 to
25 mph may lead to areas of blowing snow particularly for those
locations of open exposure.
IMPACTS...

 * Accumulating snow may lead to slippery roads particularly on
   bridges, exit ramps and overpasses.

 * Moderate to briefly heavy snow will cause reductions of
   visibility to less than one half mile at times. There may be
   rapid fluctuations of visibility.

 * Blowing snow may lead to localized whiteout conditions. Rapid
   fluctuations of visibility will occur.

 
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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8 hours ago, Niko said:

I feel confident enough that you will go to a WSW as well by afternoon. If ya don't, then, that will be weird by GRR office, as your area is in for some hvy snow as well.

Congrats bud....didnt I tell ya that you will get your WSW by today!👆😀

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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51 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA: updated and upped snowfall amounts

Winter Storm Warning
Issued: 6:10 PM Feb. 15, 2021 – National Weather Service

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
inches or more.

* WHERE...Macomb, Washtenaw, Lenawee, Monroe, Oakland and Wayne
Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread snow will become heavy at times
tonight. Highest snowfall rates are expected between 9 PM and 3
AM with hourly snowfall rates reaching and exceeding 1 inch per
hour. Snow will then weaken in intensity but continue through
the morning commute. Total snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10
inches or more are expected with highest amounts generally east of a
line from Adrian to Livonia to Utica. Northwest winds of 20 to
25 mph may lead to areas of blowing snow particularly for those
locations of open exposure.

IMPACTS...

 * Accumulating snow may lead to slippery roads particularly on
   bridges, exit ramps and overpasses.

 * Moderate to briefly heavy snow will cause reductions of
   visibility to less than one half mile at times. There may be
   rapid fluctuations of visibility.

 * Blowing snow may lead to localized whiteout conditions. Rapid
   fluctuations of visibility will occur.

 

We’re getting heavy snow out here in northern St Clair county off of Huron right now, picked up over 2” in the past 90 minutes. You can see a narrow band coming off the south end of the lake and that’s what’s been hitting us the past hour or so. Pretty intense.

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Still no power at either of my parents' places. My mom's place in Houston proper is now 49*F inside. Current temp at KIAH is 20*F. The all-time record there (5*F) is in danger as the forecasted low is 6 currently.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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6 minutes ago, Slowpoke said:

We’re getting heavy snow out here in northern St Clair county off of Huron right now, picked up over 2” in the past 90 minutes. You can see a narrow band coming off the south end of the lake and that’s what’s been hitting us the past hour or so. Pretty intense.

Its ripping here as well. Winds are also gusty w blowing and drifting snow. I must have at least 2 inches here already since it started. I like the fact that it is a frigid snowstorm. Temps holding currently at 14F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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