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Part III: February 2021 PacNW


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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow.

12 day left of winter.   Then the real winter can begin... spring in the PNW! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I want to understand the models better and be able to add more value to the conversation here. What site would you guys recommend for this? And how much $$ is subscription? Thinking about just waiting until next fall/winter at this point unless you can stop a subscription at any given time (for spring/summer)

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Both the 18z Regular and Parallel GFS show some significant lowland snow next Wednesday/Thursday.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (42).png

sn10_acc.us_nw (41).png

I want the parallel thank you very much!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

February Part III thread has a lot of work to do if it wants to live up to the accomplishments of February Part II. Can it do it? YES. Will it do it? ABSOLUTELY NOT

We can't expect three straight February threads to DELIVER. I'd guess the another West region thread will go berserk!

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Just now, Colt said:

I want to understand the models better and be able to add more value to the conversation here. What site would you guys recommend for this? And how much $$ is subscription? Thinking about just waiting until next fall/winter at this point unless you can stop a subscription at any given time (for spring/summer)

On Weatherbell you can stop it and then start right back up in the fall. I've done it a couple of times.  Tropical Tidbits or Pivitol Weather have good free models.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

On Weatherbell you can stop it and then start right back up in the fall. I've done it a couple of times.  Tropical Tidbits or Pivitol Weather have good free models.

Thank you. And as far as understanding the details and terminology. Is there a good place to get started?

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50/39 and mostly sunny today. Snows mostly gone in throughout the Tacoma area. Did hike through point defiance though and they’ve still got a few inches in the forested areas. 

48DB6401-16D6-4789-82B4-37BC27B056B8.jpeg

44B72F5D-1879-4FD1-B7F8-AC121CDE9039.jpeg

0E857CBC-DF73-471F-B33F-68C8829B59CA.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Live view from my driveway. 43 degrees feels very warm today! 

CC8EC857-09AC-41D5-885C-540C0F9C61E1.jpeg

Your snow melts as slowly as mine.   I am just amazed when looking around at cams in the Seattle area.   It looks like it got up to 80 degrees in order to melt that fast.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

WOW! Stevens Pass is closed for the day. Hope @MossMan isn't stuck on the other side of the pass since you travel a lot for work. 

Nope no travel plans this week! That has always been my fear, making it over to Eastern Washington and filling the Sprinter van full of animals and then the passes shutting down before I could make it back. Came close once years ago so I watch the forecast extremely closely if I’m planning on heading over. Been through some wicked weather while traveling over the pass over the years...I don’t go over nearly as often now and do a lot of meet ups half way so we meet a few shelter partners in Skykomish to transfer the dogs. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Your snow melts as slowly as mine.   I am just amazed when looking around at cams in the Seattle area.   It looks like it got up to 80 degrees in order to melt that fast.  

Yeah it takes a long time at our place! However back here at work just down the road it’s disappearing fast! 

D54F52E1-1497-4B7F-8240-F1AD9BCC4143.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Your snow melts as slowly as mine.   I am just amazed when looking around at cams in the Seattle area.   It looks like it got up to 80 degrees in order to melt that fast.  

Still working on melting an inch of snow off my son's car hood at 40 degrees.   But I guess 45 degrees can melt 15 inches of snow in a day!   

20210216_152335.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The regular GFS and parallel both get pretty cold on this run with at least some continental flavor.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Colt said:

Thank you. And as far as understanding the details and terminology. Is there a good place to get started?

Some sites have tutorials or you can just learn on here from what people post.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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39 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

50/39 and mostly sunny today. Snows mostly gone in throughout the Tacoma area. Did hike through point defiance though and they’ve still got a few inches in the forested areas. 

48DB6401-16D6-4789-82B4-37BC27B056B8.jpeg

44B72F5D-1879-4FD1-B7F8-AC121CDE9039.jpeg

0E857CBC-DF73-471F-B33F-68C8829B59CA.jpeg

It hasn't hit 50 here in like 35 days now.  Working on quite a streak!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Colt said:

Thank you. And as far as understanding the details and terminology. Is there a good place to get started?

I have the same question. Maybe there is a really good book out there that someone could recommend? (I'm old fashioned and like to read things.) 

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1 minute ago, Colt said:

Yeah I’ll keep asking questions but don’t want to get annoying

Keep asking questions. Anyone who tries to shut you down is usually an asshole not worth listening to.

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1 minute ago, Colt said:

Yeah I’ll keep asking questions but don’t want to get annoying

You won't get annoying. Just don't do what I do and you'll be fine.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, Colt said:

Yeah I’ll keep asking questions but don’t want to get annoying

I am sure lots of people have the same questions... like me.   For example... I have no idea what 'thickness' means.   I just know 522 is a magical number and 516 is even better.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Colt said:

Yeah I’ll keep asking questions but don’t want to get annoying

Ask away... Anyone who gets annoyed by newcomers just trying to learn and get involved are too immature to be on the forum anyways.

Here are some more resources that may or may have not been sent to you:

UW model suite: https://a.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/

College of DuPage: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

NWS Interactive observations map. Super, super useful and 10x better than Wundermap for weather observations. The ultimate nowcast tool; I was using this a lot the other day: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=sew&obs=true/

GOES Satellite view: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&maps[null]=&lat=0&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=20210112222617&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p[0]=band_10&x=5934&y=3327

Worldwide sounding network. Great for SSW event observations: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

More satellite views: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-w_northwest-14-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

More satellite again: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk.php?sat=G17

SPC mesoanalysis page. Particularly useful for convective situations, but also great for windstorms and snow events: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

AQI for summer smoke and wintertime inversion situations: https://aqicn.org/map/washington/

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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So has Rob shuffled off til Oct-Nov?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Colt said:

I want to understand the models better and be able to add more value to the conversation here. What site would you guys recommend for this? And how much $$ is subscription? Thinking about just waiting until next fall/winter at this point unless you can stop a subscription at any given time (for spring/summer)

This site has some good info

http://www.theweatherprediction.com

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/77/

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Just measured again... we have gone from a peak of 15 inches yesterday morning to 8 inches on the ground right now.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Colt said:

Thank you. And as far as understanding the details and terminology. Is there a good place to get started?

Here are a few guides.  Really understanding models is not a simple topic, but hopefully these help

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/chart_comparison/chart_comparison.htm#500

https://wxornotbg.com/2016/12/20/understanding-weather-models/

https://opensnow.com/news/post/weather-forecast-models-explained

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall12/atmo336/lectures/sec1/info500mb_2ndpass.html

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When looking down on the yard from above... you can see some rippling in the snow cover as it compacts and melts.   This was probably due to drifting but was not apparent yesterday.  We also had some laurels damaged by the ice.  

20210216_164818.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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.96" precip today and still have 2 to 3 inches of snow pretty much everywhere on the ground.  High of 43, low of 33 currently 40.  Not raining now but have some ground fog,  I'll keep you updated as conditions change.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure lots of people have the same questions... like me.   For example... I have no idea what 'thickness' means.   I just know 522 is a magical number and 516 is even better.  😀

The difference between heights and thicknesses always confused me.  I’ve seen explanations that would lead you to think heights and thicknesses should always be in tandem.  Obviously we know that’s not the case because we can have a Pacific bomb with heights below 530dm however thicknesses can be well above 540dm. Conversely, the same heights with a continental closes vortex below 530dm will often yield thicknesses well below 520dm.

Best explanation is thicknesses more reflect the rate of change within each parcel of air, be it 1000-850, 1000-700, 1000-500.  Directly tied to lapse rates, dew point and, in turn, precip type despite boundary layer fluctuations.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The difference between heights and thicknesses always confused me.  I’ve seen explanations that would lead you to think heights and thicknesses should always be in tandem.  Obviously we know that’s not the case because we can have a Pacific bomb with heights below 530dm however thicknesses can be well above 540dm. Conversely, the same heights with a continental closes vortex below 530dm will often yield thicknesses well below 520dm.

Best explanation is thicknesses more reflect the rate of change within each parcel of air, be it 1000-850, 1000-700, 1000-500.  Directly tied to lapse rates, dew point and, in turn, precip type despite boundary layer fluctuations.

You just did your best Phil impression!   

Thanks... that does help a little.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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