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Station ordered! Got you a Acurite model 01528. I really like this station, simple and easy to read. It's been solid at my cabin. I'll pm you tracking when I get it. HAPPY BIRTHDAY when that day happe

Pm me your address and I'll send you a weather station brother. I'm dead serious. 

Wow thanks guy's.  I've been very fortunate the last few years and business has been incredible.  I really enjoy helping and it really is a family on here. No other forum is like this place, I conside

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I have decided to up my grade for this winter, after some reevaluation and soul searching, well, actually only because we still have some patches of snow which makes that 8 days in a row having snow on the ground, I move the grade from a D to a D+.

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2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

It appears that we have entered into a possible Mega drought setup in the West starting in 2011. If the expanded Hadley cell continues at it's current strength, I would expect the jet stream to stay over your area and not move south during winter (I know that is not what you wanted to hear) like it has the last 7 years. So persistent rain will stick to Washington north with continued drought south of Portland. SF has rainfall records since the 1850's and there has been nothing similar to the last 10 year period which leads me to believe the west is entering a prolonged mega drought. The southwest region has been shattering heat and precip records for the last 3 years and the monsoon has been Awol as well. Not good. 

Ummmm yeah. Finally someone who gets the big picture and not just whatever the GFS says or this or that model...  Every 1,000 years give or take some we historically go thru these mega droughts and we are at that cycle once again however the peak isn't actually the 1,000 year mark but a bit later. The peak will be a hundred years from now but that doesn't mean we won't ever have cold but it will be more fleeting.  Way in the past before humans settled here Lake Tahoe has been completely dry in decade long droughts though ironically the far west coast shows very little change if you go by what the Redwood tree rings show. They survived the 1,000 year AD warming climate phase and lived to tell the tale. 

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Still think there’s a decent opportunity for some lower elevation snow over the next 3 weeks. Definitely foothills and CZ at least. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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My snowmelt is still identical to 2019! 
2019 with the deer and the other pic is from just now. 
Also I had my trademark fuzzy PNA from this day in my pics so here it is with today’s crystal clear PNA...Striking similarities! 

310EBFF0-D852-4110-8CCE-9D2177AF3180.jpeg

2863EB24-752C-468E-8342-1C3E1941069C.png

9D76A63F-1335-4634-9786-5DF48464B97F.jpeg

594AD369-AD81-4166-82F3-166A59944E7F.jpeg

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3 hours ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I say one more widespread 6" snow over here and one more 2-3" snow in the valley.  That tanking PNA is going to get it done!!

In 2012 my snowiest points of the winter were the end of Feb and all through March. I'd say there's some potential left as the season transitions. I won't count out the 6" stuff for another few weeks but I know that will almost all be melted in the afternoon as we go later.

I remember the snowiest day I had in 2019 was on March 10th (occurred over just 6-8 hours). Kind of an interesting stat considering our incredible February.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.10"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.00" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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I kind of feel this window of opportunity slipping through our fingers for a late month cold event.  The models are kind of backing away from being amplified enough and are weaker with the MJO signal than earlier runs.  Hopefully we will see model trends become more favorable over the next couple of days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of feel this window of opportunity slipping through our fingers for a late month cold event.  The models are kind of backing away from being amplified enough and are weaker with the MJO signal than earlier runs.  Hopefully we will see model trends become more favorable over the next couple of days.

I agree. But at least you had a fantastic snow event. I think we are well primed for a good run over the next 12-13 months. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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41 minutes ago, Link said:

Ummmm yeah. Finally someone who gets the big picture and not just whatever the GFS says or this or that model...  Every 1,000 years give or take some we historically go thru these mega droughts and we are at that cycle once again however the peak isn't actually the 1,000 year mark but a bit later. The peak will be a hundred years from now but that doesn't mean we won't ever have cold but it will be more fleeting.  Way in the past before humans settled here Lake Tahoe has been completely dry in decade long droughts though ironically the far west coast shows very little change if you go by what the Redwood tree rings show. They survived the 1,000 year AD warming climate phase and lived to tell the tale. 

This sounds way too scripted.  Mother Nature just doesn't wok that way.  We'll see what this solar grand minimum has to say about things.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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19 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

In the below video Judah Cohen discusses the PV disruption that has sent the cold air down into Texas, among other locations in America. At one point, in trying to tie this to climate change, he states that SSW's are more common now than they were 30 years ago. Is that true? Are SSW's occurring more frequently now than in past decades?

I would look up the answer but not really sure where to find the data for that. @Phil or anyone else got any insight into this claim? Not saying he's wrong necessarily... Just more of a curiosity thing.

 

There has been no long term trend in the frequency of SSWEs during the period of observation, so I’m not sure what Dr. Cohen is referring to. There’s intradecadal variability in their frequency, but it’s more of a sine wave function.

 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. But at least you had a fantastic snow event. I think we are well primed for a good run over the next 12-13 months. 

I certainly agree with you there.  This will probably be a cold year.  Might still have one more good snow in places this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

There has been no long term trend in the frequency of SSWEs during the period of observation, so I’m not sure what Dr. Cohen is referring to. There’s intradecadal variability in their frequency, but it’s more of a sine wave function.

 

 

All of this talk about the Texas cold wave being because of climate change just drives me nuts.  The 1930s were epically screwed up compared to now even.  Climate change has been a constant for millions of years and some periods get very chaotic.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

53CB64DC-7B0D-49ED-B85B-52B9C860887D.png.b9ac3ac514294ddf3320502911d208aa.pngB9DB3C07-3BF3-4B50-BB18-6426E03CD34B.png.c75f9eab88cc15ce22e21254a2585a01.png

Went and put the Government Camp days below 0°F data into graph format. Huge drop off when the Hadley Cell expansion began in 1998/99. Not linear at all.

We are talking about a difference of about 0-2 days here, just for those following along at home.

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53 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Ended up with a 40/36 day here yesterday. Low of 35 this morning.

12z Euro looks solidly chilly the next 7-10 days. Good mountain snow pattern.

 

Nice to see it indicating some freezing low temps again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

There has been no long term trend in the frequency of SSWEs during the period of observation, so I’m not sure what Dr. Cohen is referring to. There’s intradecadal variability in their frequency, but it’s more of a sine wave function.

 

 

It's the same putting the cart before the carriage to fit an agenda stuff we see non stop these days. Big reason I'm getting out of academia. There's no more curiosity. Just trying to see what kind of intellectual acrobatics you can perform to make every single piece of data fit the ordained narrative.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

We are talking about a difference of about 0-2 days here, just for those following along at home.

One good blast could change that graph a whole bunch also.  I think a top tier blast is still going to happen sooner than later.  What just happened in Texas shows cold air can still plunge deeply into the US.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

It's the same putting the cart before the carriage to fit an agenda stuff we see non stop these days. Big reason I'm getting out of academia. There's no more curiosity. Just trying to see how you can make every single event fit the ordained narrative.

You're almost sounding a bit conservative as of late.  I appreciate your open mindedness.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You're almost sounding a bit conservative as of late.  I appreciate your open mindedness.

I can swing pretty wildly depending on the topic. A common thread being I am fairly disgusted with the extremes on either side.

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's the same putting the cart before the carriage to fit an agenda stuff we see non stop these days. Big reason I'm getting out of academia. There's no more curiosity. Just trying to see what kind of intellectual acrobatics you can perform to make every single piece of data fit the ordained narrative.

My wife is getting to the same point. Really likes teaching but the politics, and closed mindedness of it all is becoming an Unnecessary stress.

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I certainly agree with you there.  This will probably be a cold year.  Might still have one more good snow in places this winter.

I think the favored places and foothills will probably get some more snows around western WA. Overall I think we’re going to stay fairly chilly this spring. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Off topic but not much going on here now anyway.  I'm a huge music lover and have been to over 50 concerts and if any of you are a Jimmy hendrix fan there's a dude that travels the world doing shows and he's been doing it since the early 80's. Randy hansen is his name and If you like Jimmy and amazing guitar skills Google ( hey Joe) by randy hansen and pick the video that was done in Bob rivers garage. It's worth watching!! When he starts touring again he will play in local Seattle bars and it's usually ten bucks to see him. One of the best shows you'll ever see.

We might have to get together when that happens.  I love Hendrix and have a lot of his concert recordings.

On a side note I'm thinking of starting thread in the off topic section for posting some of the most kick azz classic rock videos I've found on YouTube.  There are some real gems out there!  Nearly all of them, are quite obscure that most people don't even know about.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We might have to get together when that happens.  I love Hendrix and have a lot of his concert recordings.

On a side note I'm thinking of starting thread in the off topic section for posting some of the most kick azz classic rock videos I've found on YouTube.  There are some real gems out there!  Nearly all of them, are quite obscure that most people don't even know about.

Somewhat related... I still think our societal downward spiral over the last year has nothing to do with the pandemic and everything to do with the death of Neil Peart.

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15 minutes ago, Timmy said:

My wife is getting to the same point. Really likes teaching but the politics, and closed mindedness of it all is becoming an Unnecessary stress.

To me it's more on the climate change research side of things but I totally get that too. 

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Despite a decrease of below zero days, it looks like at least the 2010's in areas featured more snow than the 2000's FWIW.

Having stretches of 2-3 winters in a row with lowland snow is very much a 90's thing. One of the times I spoke to a local here about winter, they didn't have much to say from the 2000's other than years like 2008 or 2004. Seemed like whenever one winter did alright the next one was not.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.10"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.00" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

California need's the storm track aimed at them for a month.

Amen to that!  That would mean less gloom and more cold for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 hours ago, MossMan said:

Currently 37 and rain. 
.14” so far on the day. 

766CEE7D-E0CA-43C5-BC16-BE6FF480C357.jpeg

This -PNA episode is gonna end up warmer in PNW than last week’s +PNA. Lol.

In studying the cold season PNA, I’m increasingly convinced it holds more value as a precursor/predictor than anything else, and not in the way many here probably suspect.

-PNA/wave dispersion is a near term cold pattern, however it generally inhibits WAFz thru NPAC conduit and tightens PV, which, if persistent, can eventually pull CONUS into a warm pattern.

+PNA, on the other hand, is a WAFz machine, and tho it’s a warm pattern initially (like this past Dec/Jan, Jan 2018/2019, etc) it often acts to destabilize the PV and can eventually pull conus into a cold pattern.

For PNW region, some of the biggest winters (outside niña/+QBO) have featured an early season +PNA and/or +WPO/+NP progression that destabilizes the PV/NAM and when system returns to -PNA, that cold is unchained and is driven directly into PNW region.

Starting out winter with -PNA (with the exception of niña/+QBO years) is usually not a great sign for arctic access imo. The fact we were seeing +PNA/Okhotsk Sea vortexes in December is what led me to believe this winter would ultimately deliver. Happened a week later than I thought, but it did happen.

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18 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Didn't Whatcom county have 3 or 4 major snowstorms in December 1996? Would they all have had much wind?

I know they also got a lot with the overrunning event in December 1998 so that seems like maybe another possibility?

In Dec 1996 I think Bellingham was a lot drier with the event that brought the huge dump to Seattle.  Then of course when they got a lot it was windy.  Looking at the Whatcom County records January 1996 had a stalled Artic front that brought  a lot of snow.  That is very possibly the one that was in that picture.  I should look at the December 1998 though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

53CB64DC-7B0D-49ED-B85B-52B9C860887D.png.b9ac3ac514294ddf3320502911d208aa.pngB9DB3C07-3BF3-4B50-BB18-6426E03CD34B.png.c75f9eab88cc15ce22e21254a2585a01.png

Went and put the Government Camp days below 0°F data into graph format. Huge drop off when the Hadley Cell expansion began in 1998/99. Not linear at all.

There was a step change in z-cell climatology following the super niño in 1998, but the widening technically began in the late 1970s (following a 30yr cycle of overall retraction that began shortly after the Second World War).

The proxies we have for z-cell climo w/ respect to time suggest the HC expansion has been ongoing for a long time, probably since the late 1600s (possibly even longer). A few decades here and there where it hiccups back a little, but the general trend has been widening/slowing HCs..SW North America had already seen a substantial dry shift (weighed to cold season) from the late 1600s to the late 1700s.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

This -PNA episode is gonna end up warmer in PNW than last week’s +PNA. Lol.

In studying the cold season PNA, I’m increasingly convinced it holds more value as a precursor/predictor than anything else, and not in the way many here probably suspect.

-PNA/wave dispersion is a near term cold pattern, however it generally inhibits WAFz thru NPAC conduit and tightens PV, which, if persistent, can eventually pull CONUS into a warm pattern.

+PNA, on the other hand, is a WAFz machine, and tho it’s a warm pattern initially (like this past Dec/Jan, Jan 2018/2019, etc) it often acts to destabilize the PV and can eventually pull conus into a cold pattern.

For PNW region, some of the biggest winters (outside niña/+QBO) have featured an early season +PNA and/or +WPO/+NP progression that destabilizes the PV/NAM and when system returns to -PNA, that cold is unchained and is driven directly into PNW region.

Starting out winter with -PNA (with the exception of niña/+QBO years) is usually not a great sign for arctic access imo. The fact we were seeing +PNA/Okhotsk Sea vortexes in December is what led me to believe this winter would ultimately deliver. Happened a week later than I thought, but it did happen.

January 1950 had an epic -PNA and apparently January 1909 did as well.  As always there are other pieces that make these things work out like they do.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

This -PNA episode is gonna end up warmer in PNW than last week’s +PNA. Lol.

In studying the cold season PNA, I’m increasingly convinced it holds more value as a precursor/predictor than anything else, and not in the way many here probably suspect.

-PNA/wave dispersion is a near term cold pattern, however it generally inhibits WAFz thru NPAC conduit and tightens PV, which, if persistent, can eventually pull CONUS into a warm pattern.

+PNA, on the other hand, is a WAFz machine, and tho it’s a warm pattern initially (like this past Dec/Jan, Jan 2018/2019, etc) it often acts to destabilize the PV and can eventually pull conus into a cold pattern.

For PNW region, some of the biggest winters (outside niña/+QBO) have featured an early season +PNA and/or +WPO/+NP progression that destabilizes the PV/NAM and when system returns to -PNA, that cold is unchained and is driven directly into PNW region.

Starting out winter with -PNA (with the exception of niña/+QBO years) is usually not a great sign for arctic access imo. The fact we were seeing +PNA/Okhotsk Sea vortexes in December is what led me to believe this winter would ultimately deliver. Happened a week later than I thought, but it did happen.

So...

The whole CDFAWU thing might be a thing?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We might have to get together when that happens.  I love Hendrix and have a lot of his concert recordings.

On a side note I'm thinking of starting thread in the off topic section for posting some of the most kick azz classic rock videos I've found on YouTube.  There are some real gems out there!  Nearly all of them, are quite obscure that most people don't even know about.

Going to be nice when we can go watch some shows again.  My fiancee Has never been to a concert so we are going to see AC/DC when they tour again and maybe get front row tickets to really blow here ears out!

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

January 1950 had an epic -PNA and apparently January 1909 did as well.  As always there are other pieces that make these things work out like they do.

That 1950 Air mass was a beast. Any idea what the pressure was or the 850 temps with the core?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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36 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's the same putting the cart before the carriage to fit an agenda stuff we see non stop these days. Big reason I'm getting out of academia. There's no more curiosity. Just trying to see what kind of intellectual acrobatics you can perform to make every single piece of data fit the ordained narrative.

It’s legitimately depressing to watch. There are so many brilliant minds out there..often I wonder if my own perception of the culture is the one that’s skewed/wrong. I get that it’s easy if not cliche to criticize the culture of academia these days, but I can’t figure it out. 

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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Crazy how Long the cold and snow have held on here.  Just 39 degrees at this hour

We still have some pretty impressive patches of snow around eight days after it first started falling. Especially in the shaded spots where it drifted.

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

January 1950 had an epic -PNA and apparently January 1909 did as well.  As always there are other pieces that make these things work out like they do.

There’s no doubt -PNA is a cold pattern and +PNA is a warm pattern in PNW/W-Canada, by itself. I’m just trying to look beyond the immediate effects of the pattern. 

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41 minutes ago, Phil said:

This -PNA episode is gonna end up warmer in PNW than last week’s +PNA. Lol.

In studying the cold season PNA, I’m increasingly convinced it holds more value as a precursor/predictor than anything else, and not in the way many here probably suspect.

-PNA/wave dispersion is a near term cold pattern, however it generally inhibits WAFz thru NPAC conduit and tightens PV, which, if persistent, can eventually pull CONUS into a warm pattern.

+PNA, on the other hand, is a WAFz machine, and tho it’s a warm pattern initially (like this past Dec/Jan, Jan 2018/2019, etc) it often acts to destabilize the PV and can eventually pull conus into a cold pattern.

For PNW region, some of the biggest winters (outside niña/+QBO) have featured an early season +PNA and/or +WPO/+NP progression that destabilizes the PV/NAM and when system returns to -PNA, that cold is unchained and is driven directly into PNW region.

Starting out winter with -PNA (with the exception of niña/+QBO years) is usually not a great sign for arctic access imo. The fact we were seeing +PNA/Okhotsk Sea vortexes in December is what led me to believe this winter would ultimately deliver. Happened a week later than I thought, but it did happen.

A negative PNA in October seems like a doomed winter until February. 

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s legitimately depressing to watch. There are so many brilliant minds out there..often I wonder if my own perception of the culture is the one that’s skewed/wrong. I get that it’s easy if not cliche to criticize the culture of academia these days, but I can’t figure it out. 

Some of the smartest people can also be the most skillful at deluding themselves sadly.

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6 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

6126CFC9-043E-47B8-BF5F-FB1D1D6F1FB1.thumb.jpeg.84d3485b414a17be726f94c279a50b79.jpeg
 

Answer: February 19th. Broke the <40°F streak at my PWS today. 

43 here... and 46 in North Bend.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of feel this window of opportunity slipping through our fingers for a late month cold event.  The models are kind of backing away from being amplified enough and are weaker with the MJO signal than earlier runs.  Hopefully we will see model trends become more favorable over the next couple of days.

Takes a helluva pattern to pull off widespread lowland snow past 2/20. 

The Euro looks about as solidly chilly as could be reasonably hoped for.

Low. Solar.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

You're almost sounding a bit conservative as of late.  I appreciate your open mindedness.

This comment is a microcosm of what’s wrong with..everything. Critiquing certain aspects of academia should not be “conservative” or “liberal”. Every problem is unique in its own way, yet our perspective is one of tribal polarity.

There should be no place for politics in science because they are in diametric opposition, by definition. But as is so often the case in this universe..opposites attract.

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21 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AT MY PWS ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A LOCAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

😀

I was just backing up your post about it being above 40... not saying anything about your weather station. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking to invest in a new PWS once I get my hands on those Biden Buckz$.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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