Part III: February 2021 PacNW

[Jesse 9232]

Something tells me the February part III thread will not be living up to its predecessors weather wise

[TT-SEA 4169]

7 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Station ordered! Got you a Acurite model 01528. I really like this station, simple and easy to read. It's been solid at my cabin. I'll pm you tracking when I get it. HAPPY BIRTHDAY when that day happen. 

Just read back through the posts today... you absolutely rock!   

[Jginmartini 3940]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Signs of spring in Issaquah this afternoon...

Thunderstorm time!!!! 

[Chewbacca Defense 1158]

Awful quiet on here tonight

[MossMan 10732]

19 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Awful quiet on here tonight

And there are still colorful snow maps popping up! People are burnt out after last weekend apparently. 

[jcmcgaffey 569]

Great stuff on the thread today. I would totally be down for meeting up. On a short related story, if I remember correctly, a  couple years ago Ifred was tracking a storm and driving south to north and posted that he was stopping at Beth’s Cafe in seattle. I think it was at like 2am and I was seriously going to try and meet up as I live near there but my wife and I  just had a 2nd kid and I was passed out:).  My wife thought I was crazy:)

The things we are willing to do for weather...

[Phil 12058]

7 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Should see temps drop further in coming months as we see the full effects of the Nina.

But the effects of the SSW are ending and we’ll see at least a transient +NAO develop late this month into early March, which is more of a warm globe pattern.

The dip in global temperatures isn’t solely due to the La Niña. 

[snow_wizard 12189]

The ECMWF is significantly colder on this run.  531 heights with straight northerly flow and northerly surface gradients developing.  The GFS and parallel were better on the second trough also.

[snow_wizard 12189]

Here's the change from the 12z run with the second trough.  Notable improvement.  Now if we can do this for a couple more runs....

 

[snow_wizard 12189]

5 hours ago, Jesse said:

I bet those were blooming in January and December too. Those are some of the annoying non-native species that will stay half alive and bloom all winter if things stay mild enough.

And it's not like we just didn't have a significant cold wave.

[snow_wizard 12189]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

But the effects of the SSW are ending and we’ll see at least a transient +NAO develop late this month into early March, which is more of a warm globe pattern.

The dip in global temperatures isn’t solely due to the La Niña. 

You would think the effects of the extremely deep solar min we just had might start to come home to roost also.  I'm very happy the models show cold ENSO will probably continue this year.

[snow_wizard 12189]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

And there are still colorful snow maps popping up! People are burnt out after last weekend apparently. 

I think so.  The ECMWF was a lot better tonight.  Pretty solid chance at some kind of a cold snap next week.

[snow_wizard 12189]

The ECMWF meteograms show solidly below normal temps for SEA the 23rd through 28th.

[Requiem 2649]

This forum has some nice folks on it. There's a real sense of camaraderie here, definitely a testament to the various personalities.

[snow_wizard 12189]

The control model on the EPS now has three consecutive runs that keep cold weather going right until the end of the run with subsequent cold troughs digging down over us in the 9 to 15 day period.  We may have finally entered a solidly cold regime.

[snow_wizard 12189]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

This forum has some nice folks on it. There's a real sense of camaraderie here, definitely a testament to the various personalities.

There are some strikingly different personalities on here and people with wildly different political views, but in the end weather is the thing that brings us together.  

[snow_wizard 12189]

I was just looking through my records for the winter 2016-17, and it just blows my mind how consistently cold that winter was.  It never got super cold, but the persistence of cold resulted in a large lake near here completely freezing over.  Can't wait for another one of those, but with some big time cold thrown in.

[Jesse 9232]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

And it's not like we just didn't have a significant cold wave.

The begonias in front of the Bed, Bath and Beyond say it ain’t so.

[Meatyorologist 2043]

The forum seems dead tonight, which makes sense as we are entering the most meteorologically boring time of the year (March-April) outside of early-mid Fall, in the wake of a fairly major Arctic event.

Fortunately, it won't be long before we're peering at the models for nocturnal thunderstorms and heat waves! Just around two months before the jet stream begins to shut down and the four-corners high establishes itself. And for you winter weather nuts, just a single month on the day away from the decrease in our rate of day growth, signaling the very first ominous signs of the inevitable change in seasons after the solstice in June.

[TT-SEA 4169]

Snoqualmie pass still has snow... but they closed Alpental today due to the rapid warming expected and extremely high avalanche danger.

[TT-SEA 4169]

This was through 2/15 and has gone up significantly in the last 6 days.    There is just a small list of years that had more snow at Snoqualmie Pass at this point in the winter since 1928.    Those years include 1932, 1946, 1949, 1956, 1964, 1999.

Still... this winter stands tall in historical context.  

[MossMan 10732]

Currently 41 degrees and raining. 
.16” so far on the day.
 

[TT-SEA 4169]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 41 degrees and raining. 
.16” so far on the day.
 

42 and raining here with a strong SW wind... we might get into the rain shadow at times later today.   This is snow-eating weather.   Our snow cover went down quite a bit overnight... we have about 3 inches left now and spots of open ground appearing.    I think it will be basically gone by tomorrow except for where its piled up or drifted.

I took this pic yesterday afternoon in Snoqualmie Ridge of some of the drifts remaining.

[luterra 129]

I don't think I have ever experienced south wind with a weak front approaching while the barometer is steady at 30.52"/1034mb.  Pretty standard February day otherwise, but it must be an unusual pattern that is allowing the trailing edge of a front to extend into such a strong surface ridge.

[MossMan 10732]

7 minutes ago, luterra said:

I don't think I have ever experienced south wind with a weak front approaching while the barometer is steady at 30.52"/1034mb.  Pretty standard February day otherwise, but it must be an unusual pattern that is allowing the trailing edge of a front to extend into such a strong surface ridge.

I just noticed my weather station was showing a full sun icon next to the barometric pressure and found it a bit odd! 

[MossMan 10732]

Transition is happening up at Snoqualmie Pass now. 

[SouthHillFrosty 1477]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Snoqualmie pass still has snow... but they closed Alpental today due to the rapid warming expected and extremely high avalanche danger.

Yea I was driving over it last night at midnight and it was compact snow at the top of the pass with people going 20 mph

[Jginmartini 3940]

Might be dry here all day ( thanks Olympics) but definitely windy. Gusting to 25 with a temp of 46*

[TT-SEA 4169]

Up to 47 now in North Bend... just a few sprinkles here now.

[Jginmartini 3940]

Wind swept Sound always looks cool to me 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

46F and some sprinkles.

[MossMan 10732]

23 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Might be dry here all day ( thanks Olympics) but definitely windy. Gusting to 25 with a temp of 46*

Still dribbling here.

.20” on the day. 

[Link 16]

1 hour ago, luterra said:

I don't think I have ever experienced south wind with a weak front approaching while the barometer is steady at 30.52"/1034mb.  Pretty standard February day otherwise, but it must be an unusual pattern that is allowing the trailing edge of a front to extend into such a strong surface ridge.

In your humble opinion or anyone else's for that matter: Why do weaker cold fronts give us these surprise stronger south wind bursts over the last few years while the 'stronger' fronts tend to peter out to the point it gets really hard to get a good strong burst for any official station?

[Timmy_Supercell 2315]

And here comes the dry period.. Tomorrow could be low 50's. None of the accumulated snow will be left soon.

[Deweydog 14228]

Our snow pile is NOT enjoying this breeze.

[TacomaWaWx 4613]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Our snow pile is NOT enjoying this breeze.

Our snow piles are gone here in my area as of this morning. Only ones I’ve seen left are the big ones at the grocery store parking lots. 

[Front Ranger 7635]

11 hours ago, Phil said:

But the effects of the SSW are ending and we’ll see at least a transient +NAO develop late this month into early March, which is more of a warm globe pattern.

The dip in global temperatures isn’t solely due to the La Niña. 

Sure. But ENSO is easily the greatest driver of fluctuations in global temps. And there's usually around a 4-6 month lag.

[Chewbacca Defense 1158]

Feels weird to have gusty winds out of the south, seems like its been forever.  Currently 45

[luterra 129]

43 minutes ago, Link said:

In your humble opinion or anyone else's for that matter: Why do weaker cold fronts give us these surprise stronger south wind bursts over the last few years while the 'stronger' fronts tend to peter out to the point it gets really hard to get a good strong burst for any official station?

Can't say for sure, except that stronger cold fronts tend to generate more of a westerly dynamic and an elongated trough of low pressure while weaker fronts have less in the way of pressure falls/rises and can allow south winds to surface along an existing southerly pressure gradient.  Pretty strong latitudinal gradient today from 1036mb in southern OR to 977mb near Juneau.  Looks like an atmospheric river into central coastal BC.

[Phil 12058]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sure. But ENSO is easily the greatest driver of fluctuations in global temps. And there's usually around a 4-6 month lag.

Depends on the timescale you’re looking at. It’s true that ENSO is the most prominent driver from year to year, but intraseasonal forcings dominate from month to month. 

I guess we’ll see what ultimately happens. I suspect we’ll see global temps increase somewhat later this month, into March.

[snow_wizard 12189]

I'm a bit worried about my streak of sub 50 highs coming to an end today.

[Jesse 9232]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a bit worried about my streak of sub 50 highs coming to an end today.

My mini streak ended yesterday.

All good things must come to an end Jim

[snow_wizard 12189]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

The forum seems dead tonight, which makes sense as we are entering the most meteorologically boring time of the year (March-April) outside of early-mid Fall, in the wake of a fairly major Arctic event.

Fortunately, it won't be long before we're peering at the models for nocturnal thunderstorms and heat waves! Just around two months before the jet stream begins to shut down and the four-corners high establishes itself. And for you winter weather nuts, just a single month on the day away from the decrease in our rate of day growth, signaling the very first ominous signs of the inevitable change in seasons after the solstice in June.

There are still some cold weather opportunities coming up.  In general I agree that most of March and April are pretty bad here though.  An exception would be years like 1949, 1951, 1975 and some others that had quick hitting cold troughs and lots of sunshine / abnormally cold nights.

[snow_wizard 12189]

17 hours ago, Jesse said:

I bet those were blooming in January and December too. Those are some of the annoying non-native species that will stay half alive and bloom all winter if things stay mild enough.

Out neighbor has a bush that blooms only during the cold season.  It takes a very hard freeze to freeze the blossoms off.

[snow_wizard 12189]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

My mini streak ended yesterday.

All good things must come to an end

My streak is 36 days.  There have been some days that came dangerously close to braking it, but it somehow managed to thread the needle and become a very respectable run. 

[TT-SEA 4169]

The SSTA map continues to look very close to this same time in 2018.   I expect a very wet April.

2/19/2018 on top and 2/19/2021 on the bottom...

[MossMan 10732]

56 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Our snow pile is NOT enjoying this breeze.

Want to come over and play in my gravely snow? I have a cleaner snow bank as well! 

[Omegaraptor 2439]

 

Blocky cold west / warm east pattern for 8-14.

1985 comes up twice.

[MossMan 10732]

This Sunday morning and last Sunday morning. I choose last Sunday morning! 

[snow_wizard 12189]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This Sunday morning and last Sunday morning. I choose last Sunday morning! 

Not being able to get down to freezing most nights just killed the snow.  It has to be able to freeze up after the melting process beings or it just doesn't last very long.  In 2019 the snow began to melt and then we had cold nights which changed the crystal structure of the snow and it lasted a long time.