Part III: February 2021 PacNW

[GHweatherChris 3484]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The whole energy crisis in Texas kind of made me think about what could happen if there was a mass prolonged electricity shortage across the country. What if our power grid was attacked or some type of unlikely massive accident happened that shut down the grid for a long time? Probably a good idea to have lots of water and non-perishable food in case something like that happened in the future. If it did happen it would likely be some type of attack by another country. What happened in Texas was pretty crazy and I’d never imagine we would have that type of situation here in our country but it did happen...of course there were more elements at play that led to the catastrophe in Texas...but it’s something to think about as society as a whole is very dependent on electricity. 

We watch The Walking Dead as instructional videos, with or without zombies, if we lose our infrastructure as a whole, we are all fuckked if we aren't prepared.

[SouthHillFrosty 1390]

All three mountain passes are closing at six. The mountains are just getting pounded right now

[Front Ranger 7603]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

On the 18z GFS both the operational and the ensemble control both drop 850s below -7 with each of the next two troughs.  Not terrible by any means.  The parallel drops to -8 on the first one and -6 on the other.  Should be some very low snow level and frost opportunities coming up.

Andrew might finally be able to pad his snowfall stats a bit.

[Front Ranger 7603]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This year will probably be our best shot in a while to avoid it.  Sometimes these kinds of trends turn on a dime and it's over.

Last summer avoided torching for western WA at least.

[jcmcgaffey 570]

Just tried the timelapse function on my phone at Carkeek in Seattle.

[Phil 11712]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil, in layperson's terms what are you trying to say? ENSO will stay negative? 

Yes early indications lean to a second year La Niña, or possibly cold neutral. In my opinion, at least.

[MossMan 10553]

Warmer air has finally arrived up here...47 and it feels super balmy!

[Phil 11712]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It is interesting that periods where the trade winds back off between 160W and 160E is what seems to trigger colder episodes here.

That makes sense actually. MJO over IPWP tends to kick up NPAC surf and trigger blocking.

[Phil 11712]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve definitely heard that might be the case...

It’s pretty amazing that most of Texas saw temperatures that would borderline on unimaginable in our current climate state while their building codes are so lax when it comes to R values.

This.

[MossMan 10553]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes early indications lean to a second year La Niña, or possibly cold neutral. In my opinion, at least.

We are either going to have a November 1985 or 2010 redux or a December 1990 or  2008 redux. January 1950 is not out of the cards either. 

[Phil 11712]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah my biggest concern for my house is the fact we don't have a back up heat source.  Luckily power outages are few and far between here and relatively short lived.  I talked to a contractor buddy and he said it would be quite easy to wire in a separate connection & switch so that we could at least run our gas furnace off of a small gas generator.  Fat lot of good it will do if the state legislature has its way and bans natural gas.

 

As far as having a Texas situation happen here, outside of the big 9.0 hitting, I would say its a "black swan" scenario for here.  If our in state power generation were to start being overwhelmed, we are connected to the national grid and can pull power in from other locations.  That is not the case in Texas.  

 

I've read a few different accounts that Texas was within a few seconds of a major collapse of the grid that would have taken weeks if not months to recover from.

 

We have propane for heat and a wood burning fireplace as well. Came in handy after snowmageddon in 2010 and the 1999 ice storm..both long term power outages with rough winds and temps in the single digits in the wake of the cyclones.

[Phil 11712]

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Another hot summer? It's ok to just come out and say it, we expect them every year now.

Almost impossible to predict this far in advance lol.

Statistically, a cool start and warm finish might be favored. But super preliminary. And I have no clue on precip yet.

[TheNewCulverJosh 402]

I have a feeling that if a neutral year follows this one then we could get nuked.  

Just seems like with the SSW and subsequent displacement of the PV this winter, things are setting up to be fun next year.

[SouthHillFrosty 1390]

Seeing 30mph+ gusts in Everett. Can you confirm? @iFred

[Phil 11712]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We are either going to have a November 1985 or 2010 redux or a December 1990 or  2008 redux. January 1950 is not out of the cards either. 

One of these next few winters almost has to be frontloaded in your region.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

33 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes early indications lean to a second year La Niña, or possibly cold neutral. In my opinion, at least.

How are 2nd year Nina's different, especially in late Fall/ early Winter, considering that in the 2nd year, I assume the atmosphere is already starting in a Nina regime, as opposed to being in transition during the same time in a first year Nina, especially considering a first year Nina is often coming off of a Nino regime?

[TigerWoodsLibido 5564]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

One of these next few winters almost has to be frontloaded in your region.

If only by probabilities alone.

[mtep 268]

Wasn't feb 19 during a neutral or weak niño?? 

[MossMan 10553]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

One of these next few winters almost has to be frontloaded in your region.

Or we could be due for a dud since we have had decent to spectacular events for the last 5 seasons straight now...

[GHweatherChris 3484]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Or we could be due for a dud since we have had decent to spectacular events for the last 5 seasons straight now...

Not the entire region, but yes, your backyard is due for a dud.

[Omegaraptor 2370]

Salem area is by far the most due for a big snow event now. Been since 16-17 and all they've really had is an ice storm. Rooting for them next winter.

[Omegaraptor 2370]

22 minutes ago, mtep said:

Wasn't feb 19 during a neutral or weak niño?? 

Weak Niño. SSW saved that winter. Would have been a dud otherwise.

[GHweatherChris 3484]

24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Salem area is by far the most due for a big snow event now. Been since 16-17 and all they've really had is an ice storm. Rooting for them next winter.

Nah, most of us don't live there.

[Jginmartini 3783]

1 hour ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Just tried the timelapse function on my phone at Carkeek in Seattle.

It’s was quite the interesting and dynamic sky tonight! Cool video! 
 

[seattleweatherguy 477]

Can confirm its windy

[seattleweatherguy 477]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Almost impossible to predict this far in advance lol.

Statistically, a cool start and warm finish might be favored. But super preliminary. And I have no clue on precip yet.

I guess you could know by April maybe on that stuff?

[MossMan 10553]

Windy!!!! 

[TT-SEA 3622]

I guess I did not realize that the 1960s was basically a decade of ENSO neutral.   One wimpy Nina in there... which was preceded and followed by a Nino.

[ShawniganLake 5443]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I CANNOT BELIEVE they want to eliminate natural gas/propane as an energy source in the state...The holy **** are they thinking? Not to get political but that is just a massive disaster waiting to happen.

Hmm.  We are having natural gas installed to the house this summer.  Gonna start with a fire place and think about converting other things. Electricity is very expensive.  The gas company is willing to spend several thousand dollars to extend the gas service for us, likely trying to connect as many houses as they can before regulations get tightened.  Our main source of heat is a wood stove and we like it and will keep it.  It is brand new but we are having issues with it, likely due to the new EPA regulations they imposed recently.  

[MossMan 10553]

Snow mound killer is in full force now, south winds howling and now raining! 

[MossMan 10553]

I’m borderline blue! I’m in second shade of grey on Wednesday. 

[Meatyorologist 1998]

Looks like a decent PSCZ tomorrow afternoon and evening could bring a quick snowfall to parts of the Sound.

[TT-SEA 3622]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like a decent PSCZ tomorrow afternoon and evening could bring a quick snowfall to parts of the Sound.

That is Tuesday afternoon.

[MossMan 10553]

[Meatyorologist 1998]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is Tuesday afternoon.

Thanks, wasn't paying attention to the time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER 6904]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is Tuesday afternoon.

Isn't that 9pm Tuesday?

[TT-SEA 3622]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Isn't that 9pm Tuesday?

Yes... for that image.

[jcmcgaffey 570]

1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

It’s was quite the interesting and dynamic sky tonight! Cool video! 
 

Ya there was definitely some wind shear going on.  The lower level clouds were also forming out of nothing. Some of my favorite weather to watch is looking west across the sound and all the cloud flows/formations.  The Olympics create all sorts of cool cloud patterns/flows. 

[Phil 11712]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I guess I did not realize that the 1960s was basically a decade of ENSO neutral.   One wimpy Nina in there... which was preceded and followed by a Nino.

1950s and 1960s had some epic wave driving. A few of those winters likely had multiple SSWEs. Almost a permanent cold season -NAO.

Unsurprisingly the globe cooled until the late 1970s. Awesome stretch.

[Phil 11712]

Would love to see those mid-20th century patterns return.

-NAO/suppressed jet was the rule, not the exception.

 

[Omegaraptor 2370]

Hour 384!!!!

[SouthHillFrosty 1390]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hour 384!!!!

Naw more like hour 378 

 

[MossMan 10553]

14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hour 384!!!!

March 2019 redux! 
 

[snow_wizard 11637]

Amazingly the parallel shows this area getting 3 or 4 inches of snow Tuesday night with an atypical C-Zone.  That means almost an Arctic front type situation (higher pressure to the north and higher pressure to the south) without really cold air, but cold enough.  A normal c-zone is with onshore flow.

[snow_wizard 11637]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like a decent PSCZ tomorrow afternoon and evening could bring a quick snowfall to parts of the Sound.

That's more like Tuesday evening.  It shows a zone in south King County just like the parallel GFS.

[GHweatherChris 3484]

Just moved past 30" of rain YTD, this winter is now back to a D.

[TacomaWaWx 4319]

Rain shadows gone. Have picked up 0.24” so far and getting some pretty decent rainfall currently. 

[snow_wizard 11637]

Looks like a realistic lowland snow threat with both troughs this week.  We'll see what we can do with it.  Even the ECMWF shows about 3 inches here this week.

[snow_wizard 11637]

23 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Just moved past 30" of rain YTD, this winter is now back to a D.

While I think you're too harsh with your grading I'm not as impressed as some about this winter.  Way too much crap for that one cold snap to make up for.  I give it a memorable C as of right now.  The event last weekend was impressive and I was quite impressed seeing it snow with such cold temps and all of that, but just not enough.

[TacomaWaWx 4319]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like a realistic lowland snow threat with both troughs this week.  We'll see what we can do with it.  Even the ECMWF shows about 3 inches here this week.

Could be interesting.