Part III: February 2021 PacNW

[snow_wizard 12189]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

http://climatlas.com/temperature/jra55_temperature.php

Thanks!  

The striking thing is how well rounded the global cooling has been.  N HEM, S HEM, and tropics have gone below normal.  That means the NAO going + isn't going to have such a bad impact on making the global average rise again.

[snow_wizard 12189]

22 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

WOW! Just had a crazy hail cell pop up out of nowhere and slam me with very heavy nearly pea size hail. Clearly the upper atmosphere is rapidly cooling this evening behind the cold front.

There was nothing on the radar and then ten minutes later it was absolutely dumping hail here. Then five minutes later it was gone.

 

Nice!  The mid to upper levels are going to be cold for quite a while now.

[MossMan 10732]

Had a high of 47. Currently 41 which is the low so far on the day.

1.14” of rainfall so far on the day, 7.90” for the month, 15.62” ytd. 

 

[snow_wizard 12189]

44 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm really happy we got a lengthy period of sub-freezing temps and legit winter storm conditions/deep snowfall out of such a mild overall winter. Definitely would have felt pretty incomplete without it and I am now able to turn my sites to a chilly Nina spring. 

Hopefully the big story of this year will be how cold it was after January.  With the Nina likely to hang in this might be a cool one.  Second year nina winters are normally a better bet for early cold as well than first year.

I keep hoping for a year like we used to get where we see low temps in the 30s well into June or even early July.

[snow_wizard 12189]

Temperatures are falling off nicely this evening.  It appears we will avoid even having one day of well above normal temps associated with the brief spike in 850s.  Still in the running for a sub 40 average this month IMBY.

[TT-SEA 4170]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Hopefully the big story of this year will be how cold it was after January.  With the Nina likely to hang in this might be a cool one.  Second year nina winters are normally a better bet for early cold as well than first year.

I keep hoping for a year like we used to get where we see low temps in the 30s well into June or even early July.

I am actually pretty optimistic about this summer... but of course I am not wishing for winter in the summer! 

We tend to do pretty well when starting with a negative ONI which ends up neutral in the warm season.   I would prefer that over the opposite (e.g. 2016 and 2019) which were quite wet.     Years like 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 come to mind.   2012 started off cold but July - September of that year were just about as perfect as it gets.     But if ENSO stays solidly in Nina territory all warm season then maybe a cold summer like 2011 is on the table. 

We will see.   Too early to really know anything... just going on intuition.

[Phil 12058]

2 hours ago, The Blob said:

So what does everyone have planned for their first 90° day?

Curling up in the fetal position in a room full of dry ice.

[Phil 12058]

Just 16 weeks until the days start getting shorter again.

WooHoo! Can’t come soon enough. 

[bainbridgekid 3940]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am actually pretty optimistic about this summer... but of course I am not wishing for winter in the summer! 

We tend to do pretty well when starting with a negative ONI which ends up neutral in the warm season.   I would prefer that over the opposite (e.g. 2016 and 2019) which were quite wet.     Years like 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 come to mind.   2012 started off cold but July - September of that year were just about as perfect as it gets.     But if ENSO stays solidly in Nina territory all warm season then maybe a cold summer like 2011 is on the table. 

We will see.   Too early to really know anything... just going on intuition.

I really can't hardly remember a Summer that hasn't been fairly spectacular here. There have been a few I wished were cooler and a few that had too much stubborn morning/early afternoon fog for my tastes and the smoke can be annoying, but even our worst Summers beat the Summers 80% of the rest of the country gets. Hard to go wrong here.

[Phil 12058]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am actually pretty optimistic about this summer... but of course I am not wishing for winter in the summer! 

We tend to do pretty well when starting with a negative ONI which ends up neutral in the warm season.   I would prefer that over the opposite (e.g. 2016 and 2019) which were quite wet.     Years like 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 come to mind.   2012 started off cold but July - September of that year were just about as perfect as it gets.     But if ENSO stays solidly in Nina territory all warm season then maybe a cold summer like 2011 is on the table. 

We will see.   Too early to really know anything... just going on intuition.

We should stay -ENSO this summer. That, in conjunction with the -PMM, probably rules out years like 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2018, which were neutral/warm neutral ENSO and/or +PMM.

-ENSO/-PMM summers like 2000, 2008, 2011, or 2012 might serve as better analogs.

[MossMan 10732]

3 hours ago, The Blob said:

So what does everyone have planned for their first 90° day?

 

[Deweydog 14228]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 

Is that ol’ Beebe Bridge?

[MR.SNOWMIZER 7082]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is that ol’ Beebe Bridge?

Good eye. Looks like it

[MR.SNOWMIZER 7082]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is that ol’ Beebe Bridge?

Everytime i drive to my cabin i always want to ask you about that car thats crashed on the side of that hill on the left heading north. Not far past the Beebe Bridge. Have you seen that car? Looks like it's been there a long time.

[Deweydog 14228]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Everytime i drive to my cabin i always want to ask you about that car thats crashed on the side of that hill on the left heading north. Not far past the Beebe Bridge. Have you seen that car? Looks like it's been there a long time.

I haven’t seen it, but now that I think about it I haven’t driven over the Beebe it probably 15 years.  Seems like every time we’ve been over there recently we always end up taking the alternate through Chelan.

[TacomaWaWx 4613]

Down to 43 now...DPs down in the mid 30s. 

[MossMan 10732]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is that ol’ Beebe Bridge?

It is! Rode from Daroga State Park to Beebe bridge, then down to Rocky Reach Dam, then back to the park! 

[Timmy_Supercell 2315]

53 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I really can't hardly remember a Summer that hasn't been fairly spectacular here. There have been a few I wished were cooler and a few that had too much stubborn morning/early afternoon fog for my tastes and the smoke can be annoying, but even our worst Summers beat the Summers 80% of the rest of the country gets. Hard to go wrong here.

2019 was within a half degree of exactly normal at KLMT
Max temperature that year was 94 degrees. Last time that happened was a long time ago.

2020 was a notch warmer but no significant heatwaves. 

[Omegaraptor 2439]

6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

2019 was within a half degree of exactly normal at KLMT
Max temperature that year was 94 degrees. Last time that happened was a long time ago.

2020 was a notch warmer but no significant heatwaves. 

Your elevation definitely protects you from significant heatwaves. Tons of places on the plateaus in south central OR / NE CA / N NV that have average July/August highs in the high 80s yet rarely see triple digits.

Roseburg tied its all time heat record of 109 on 8/15/20. Was actually paying attention to it that day. 

[TT-SEA 4170]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

I really can't hardly remember a Summer that hasn't been fairly spectacular here. There have been a few I wished were cooler and a few that had too much stubborn morning/early afternoon fog for my tastes and the smoke can be annoying, but even our worst Summers beat the Summers 80% of the rest of the country gets. Hard to go wrong here.

2019 was not so great... it rained on 50% of days in July and August here.   We do better in some winter months.    2012 kicked a*s over 2019 in the July-Sept period.    

[MossMan 10732]

I liked the 18z better. 

[Timmy_Supercell 2315]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Your elevation definitely protects you from significant heatwaves. Tons of places on the plateaus in south central OR / NE CA / N NV that have average July/August highs in the high 80s yet rarely see triple digits.

Roseburg tied its all time heat record of 109 on 8/15/20. Was actually paying attention to it that day. 

Partially true about the heatwave part. I don't see extreme highs unlike Medford, Roseburg or Pendleton.. But heatwaves still happen, I'd consider a week straight of 95-99 a pretty good one at higher altitudes which I've seen in other summers.

In 2019 you couldn't find a group of more than a few days of low-mid 90's. We can definitely get hot summers and then cooler summers, at least with our standards for what's hot

Our hottest July on record in 2014 had an average high of  90.6 degrees. No triple digits but any month averaging over 90 at 4000+ ft. is a toasty one. 

[TT-SEA 4170]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

We should stay -ENSO this summer. That, in conjunction with the -PMM, probably rules out years like 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2018, which were neutral/warm neutral ENSO and/or +PMM.

-ENSO/-PMM summers like 2000, 2008, 2011, or 2012 might serve as better analogs.

You might be right... but the average of all the ENSO models is around neutral this warm season.    And neutral summers tend to be good in my opinion. 

 

[bainbridgekid 3940]

Wow. Steve Pierce posted these photos from Washougal just East of Camas taken on Thursday. Looks like the drifting there was absolutely insane.

Costco plowers may be good, but my money's on these!

EDIT: It's Belle Center Road which runs between 600 and 900 feet elevation and is 11 miles East of Camas.

[Jesse 9232]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wow. Steve Pierce posted these photos from Washougal just East of Camas taken on Thursday. Looks like the drifting there was absolutely insane.

Costco plowers may be good, but my money's on these!

Looks like Cape Horn. That’s around 1,200 asl, about 10 miles east of Washougal.

[Deweydog 14228]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like Cape Horn. That’s around 1,200 asl, about 10 miles east of Washougal.

Pretty sure that’s Belle Center Road.

[bainbridgekid 3940]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like Cape Horn. That’s around 1,200 asl, about 10 miles east of Washougal.

Yep. He said it was Belle Center road near Cape Horn. Just checked out the topo map and that road runs between 600 and 900 feet elevation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER 7082]

17 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wow. Steve Pierce posted these photos from Washougal just East of Camas taken on Thursday. Looks like the drifting there was absolutely insane.

Costco plowers may be good, but my money's on these!

WTF

[seattleweatherguy 483]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You might be right... but the average of all the ENSO models is around neutral this warm season.    And neutral summers tend to be good in my opinion. 

 

Good as in not too hot right? With some rain?

[Jesse 9232]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty sure that’s Belle Center Road.

Yup. Close to the SR 14 high point. They always get amazing drifts in that area. I’ve seen drifts from winter storms stick around until April.

[Jesse 9232]

24 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Good as in not too hot right? With some rain?

“Good” as in essentially rainless from late April thru late October, all time record warm JJA for either PDX or SEA if not close to it, with at least one unprecedented long streak of 90s and some historic wildfires with a couple weeks of suffocating smoke thrown in for good measure

[Jesse 9232]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Yep. He said it was Belle Center road near Cape Horn. Just checked out the topo map and that road runs between 600 and 900 feet elevation.

I thought it was north of 1000’ up there but I could be wrong.

[GHweatherChris 3628]

Ice pellets!

[Deweydog 14228]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yup. Close to the SR 14 high point. They always get amazing drifts in that area. I’ve seen drifts from winter storms stick around until April.

Yeah, we took a ride out there back in late January-ish 2004 and it was a similar look.  Of course it’d be next to impossible to experience that first hand but it’s amazing that such extreme conditions can occur with relative regularity so close by.

[TT-SEA 4170]

00Z GFS shows a generally drier pattern coming up starting this weekend.  

[MossMan 10732]

16 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ice pellets!

Are you upgrading winter from a D+ to a C- now? 

[Jesse 9232]

33 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Yep. He said it was Belle Center road near Cape Horn. Just checked out the topo map and that road runs between 600 and 900 feet elevation.

I google earthed it and you are correct. The 1,200' is in my head for that area because it's the high point for the Cape Horn trail. The Belle Center road junction is just 6-700' asl. Here I am downplaying the impressiveness of a microclimate in my own backyard.

[MossMan 10732]

[TT-SEA 4170]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

00Z GFS shows a huge snowstorm with marginal temps at day 15... which is March 9th.

[Phil 12058]

57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You might be right... but the average of all the ENSO models is around neutral this warm season.    And neutral summers tend to be good in my opinion. 

 

I know what the models say. I’m sure we’ll transiently enter cold neutral territory. But under -PMM and a consolidated IPWP you will have more of a La Niña type circulation present. The 2013/14/17/18 summers were all +PMM and/or had an extended IPWP.

This looks more like the pre-2013 low frequency patterns.

[Rubus Leucodermis 1346]

5 hours ago, The Blob said:

So what does everyone have planned for their first 90° day?

We had one last year. Should be four or five years before we’re due for another one.

[MossMan 10732]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows a huge snowstorm with marginal temps at day 15... which is March 9th.

I had snow and sun on 3/9/19! 

[GHweatherChris 3628]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Are you upgrading winter from a D+ to a C- now? 

Phuck no, considering downgrading it again.

[bainbridgekid 3940]

Back to a snow covered freeway at Snoqualmie Pass this evening after about 31 hours of rain. Nice to see the warm-up there be so brief.

 

[Jesse 9232]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

I know what the models say. I’m sure we’ll transiently enter cold neutral territory. But under -PMM and a consolidated IPWP you will have more of a La Niña type circulation present. The 2013/14/17/18 summers were all +PMM and/or had an extended IPWP.

This looks more like the pre-2013 low frequency patterns.

Fred needs a gun to the head react

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Ended  up with 0.90" of rain today. 9.88" on the month now. 

[TT-SEA 4170]

24 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Fred needs a gun to the head react

So clever... everyone would use that one at different times!   Lets fill the forum with gun-to-head reacts.   Good idea.

[TT-SEA 4170]

00Z ECMWF still shows some snow on Friday night...

 

[Geos 1850]

Ran into a nasty rain and sleet shower in Kenmore tonight. Was coming down so heavy I pulled off the road for a short time. 10 minutes later the moon was shining brightly. 

[TacomaWaWx 4613]

Hard to complain about this winter. Lots of people got some lowland snow and the mountains are doing great. Likely lots more mountain snow coming the next 2 months too with this nina spring.