Part III: February 2021 PacNW

[Jesse 8874]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

I know what the models say. I’m sure we’ll transiently enter cold neutral territory. But under -PMM and a consolidated IPWP you will have more of a La Niña type circulation present. The 2013/14/17/18 summers were all +PMM and/or had an extended IPWP.

This looks more like the pre-2013 low frequency patterns.

Fred needs a gun to the head react

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

Ended  up with 0.90" of rain today. 9.88" on the month now. 

[TT-SEA 3697]

24 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Fred needs a gun to the head react

So clever... everyone would use that one at different times!   Lets fill the forum with gun-to-head reacts.   Good idea.

[TT-SEA 3697]

00Z ECMWF still shows some snow on Friday night...

 

[Geos 1830]

Ran into a nasty rain and sleet shower in Kenmore tonight. Was coming down so heavy I pulled off the road for a short time. 10 minutes later the moon was shining brightly. 

[TacomaWaWx 4347]

Hard to complain about this winter. Lots of people got some lowland snow and the mountains are doing great. Likely lots more mountain snow coming the next 2 months too with this nina spring. 

[Omegaraptor 2374]

Pretty sure Tim said at one point that 2012 was one of his favorite summers weather-wise. @TT-SEA

[TT-SEA 3697]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hard to complain about this winter. Lots of people got some lowland snow and the mountains are doing great. Likely lots more mountain snow coming the next 2 months too with this nina spring. 

Comes down to personal preferences.   Jim said there was way too much gloom... and the cold-to-gloom ratio was very disappointing overall.   Chris gave it a very low grade as well.  

I think the one event was pretty impressive and memorable.   But 3 days does not make a winter to some people.

[TT-SEA 3697]

00Z ECMWF shows a little taste of spring next week... hope it holds.

 

[Skagit Weather 648]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We had one last year. Should be four or five years before we’re due for another one.

Last one we had here was in 2016. Also had one in 2015 and two in 2008. That seems to average out to one every 3-4 years so I guess I'm due this summer!

[BLI snowman 6780]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows a little taste of spring next week... hope it holds.

 

 

Quick retrograde coming.

[TT-SEA 3697]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Quick retrograde coming.

 

Maybe.   I am not so sure we will go from cold troughing to warm that fast.

[Skagit Weather 648]

Pretty windy and wet day here today. Winds gusted to 35 mph which was basically unforecast by the NWS. Got 0.5" in the bucket putting me close to 5" on the month (almost wetter than January at this point, especially considering who knows how much snow I missed from the snow storm).

Looks like a number of models are showing a possible quick shot of snow up here in the next couple of days. We'll have to see if that verifies, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Jesse 8874]

52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ended  up with 0.90" of rain today. 9.88" on the month now. 

Thanks for checking in Andrew.

[TacomaWaWx 4347]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Comes down to personal preferences.   Jim said there was way too much gloom... and the cold-to-gloom ratio was very disappointing overall.   Chris gave it a very low grade as well.  

I think the one event was pretty impressive and memorable.   But 3 days does not make a winter to some people.

Lol I try not to worry about how other people perceived it too much. I enjoyed it. Outside of that 4 day stretch it wasn’t great but that’s how many winters around here go. Lots of winters we only get a few days of cold and snow and then it’s 40-50 degree rain the rest of the time. Not too often we get really good solidly cold winters like 08-09 16-17 and 18-19. 

[bainbridgekid 3866]

59 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol I try not to worry about how other people perceived it too much. I enjoyed it. Outside of that 4 day stretch it wasn’t great but that’s how many winters around here go. Lots of winters we only get a few days of cold and snow and then it’s 40-50 degree rain the rest of the time. Not too often we get really good solidly cold winters like 08-09 16-17 and 18-19. 

It also make sense people in different parts of the Sound would have very different standards for what makes a good Winter. The microclimates here are so varied which is what makes weather here so fascinating to me.

Tacoma and Seattle only average about 5" of snow and both got historic snowstorms earlier this month, so it's logical for that to be enough to give it a pretty good grade. Mossman on the other hand probably averages close to 20" of snow a year and Tim probably averages 40" with many more days of snowcover, so their standards are going to be much higher.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

49 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Thanks for checking in Andrew.

Not much to say at this point. Hopefully my Dad can get power back sometime in the next week or two. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

Looks like we are over 50" on the water year now. Slightly above normal. 

[Jesse 8874]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much to say at this point. Hopefully my Dad can get power back sometime in the next week or two. 

I was talking to a friend of mine who has family in Mt. Angel the other day, and he said they were still waiting for their power to return too. Also said the damage on their farm was pretty extensive.

[smerfylicious 157]

Stevens Pass should pass their annual average snowfall tonight. Mountains are healthy. 

[Jesse 8874]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like we are over 50" on the water year now. Slightly above normal. 

This is where that new react would come in handy.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

5 hours ago, Jesse said:

This is where that new react would come in handy.

At this point I would predict we end up in the 75-80" range this year. Certainly nothing to write the grandparents about, but enough to keep the grass green through the 4th of July. Probably due for a wet Oct/Nov combo this year. 

[TT-SEA 3697]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much to say at this point. Hopefully my Dad can get power back sometime in the next week or two. 

That is crazy.

[TT-SEA 3697]

7 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol I try not to worry about how other people perceived it too much. I enjoyed it. Outside of that 4 day stretch it wasn’t great but that’s how many winters around here go. Lots of winters we only get a few days of cold and snow and then it’s 40-50 degree rain the rest of the time. Not too often we get really good solidly cold winters like 08-09 16-17 and 18-19. 

That is a good way to approach it! 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is crazy.

His situation is a bit unique. There is a line which runs from the main line, about 100 yards to his meter, that line was taken down by a large willow tree that split, when that tree fell it also took out the line from the meter to his house. When that happened it pulled the breaker box off his house and destroyed it. There is also a line which goes from the meter to his well pump, that line was also destroyed by falling limbs from a large oak tree. PGE has to come onto his property and repair the line to the meter. Then he has to have an electrician repair the box and other two lines. Sounds like the electrician was finally able to secure a box, so that should go back on within a few days and then hopefully PGE will come back out and repair the line to the meter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

National Guard came by conducting welfare checks yesterday. 

[TT-SEA 3697]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point I would predict we end up in the 75-80" range this year. Certainly nothing to write the grandparents about, but enough to keep the grass green through the 4th of July. Probably due for a wet Oct/Nov combo this year. 

Yeah... October was a slightly below average here but November, December, January, and now February have been wetter than normal.    This month was running close to normal but over 5 inches of rain in 36 hours changed that and it was a noteworthy event.    Wetter than normal this water year so far... but not nearly as extreme as last year at this point.  

And I might even write a letter to the grandparents talking about all the snow and big rain event this month!  I guess if you are posting on a weather forum those would be the interesting events to talk about this month.  

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... October was a slightly below average here but November, December, January, and now February have been wetter than normal.    This month was running close to normal but over 5 inches of rain in 36 hours changed that and it was a noteworthy event.    Wetter than normal this water year so far... but not nearly as extreme as last year at this point.  

And I might even write a letter to the grandparents talking about all the snow and big rain event this month!  I guess if you are posting on a weather forum those would be the interesting events to talk about this month.  

November was dry here. 1/2" of ZR when we have never had ZR since I moved here was pretty noteworthy. My only living grandparent grew up in Buffalo, NY. It would take a lot to get her attention in terms of winter weather. She's lived in San Diego since 1962 though, she came to visit for Christmas in 1990 and vowed she would never again visit in the winter, she has kept that vow. 

[AlTahoe 387]

 

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like we are over 50" on the water year now. Slightly above normal. 

Some parts of California's north coast are approaching 100" deficit's when combining last winter with this winter. Santa Cruz Mountains are approaching 60" deficit's!  We are fully in a spring pattern here with nothing but record temps interrupted by inside slider cool downs. No precip being shown on the long range models. Once we hit April our meaningful precip chances are over.  I have a feeling this summers fire season will be historic for California. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

 

Some parts of California's north coast are approaching 100" deficit's when combining last winter with this winter. Santa Cruz Mountains are approaching 60" deficit's!  We are fully in a spring pattern here with nothing but record temps interrupted by inside slider cool downs. No precip being shown on the long range models. Once we hit April our meaningful precip chances are over.  I have a feeling this summers fire season will be historic for California. 

Aside from that brief period in January there has been pretty much no full latitude West Coast troughing. It is really very remarkable, especially in a Nina. Some of the models have hinted at it from time to time, but for the most part pull back every time. 

[TT-SEA 3697]

12 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

 

Some parts of California's north coast are approaching 100" deficit's when combining last winter with this winter. Santa Cruz Mountains are approaching 60" deficit's!  We are fully in a spring pattern here with nothing but record temps interrupted by inside slider cool downs. No precip being shown on the long range models. Once we hit April our meaningful precip chances are over.  I have a feeling this summers fire season will be historic for California. 

And no matter how many more feet of rain we get up here... that won't protect us from all that CA smoke this summer.

I am hoping for another March Miracle in CA.   It would be nice if nature decided to spread things out and stop focusing everything on BC and WA... we have more than enough up here.

[AlTahoe 387]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Aside from that brief period in January there has been pretty much no full latitude West Coast troughing. It is really very remarkable, especially in a Nina. Some of the models have hinted at it from time to time, but for the most part pull back every time. 

Even during the year without a winter 2014-2015 we still received rain storms that came in from the south. This year we have literally had 1 storm come in from the Pacific which is mind blowing. Everything else has been inside sliders from the north. This same pattern has been stuck for 2 years now. 

[MossMan 10567]

Currently raining and 36 degrees.

.07” so far on the day. 

[Rubus Leucodermis 1320]

I'm in the blue zone! (Most of it falls Friday into Saturday.)

Unfortunately the Euro is nowhere near as excited about my chances.

[TT-SEA 3697]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I'm in the blue zone! (Most of it falls Friday into Saturday.)

Unfortunately the Euro is nowhere near as excited about my chances.

 

It shows some that snow falling in the next 6 hours there through 1 p.m. today.    And most of the snow is actually shown on Thursday morning.  

[Omegaraptor 2374]

44 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

 

Some parts of California's north coast are approaching 100" deficit's when combining last winter with this winter. Santa Cruz Mountains are approaching 60" deficit's!  We are fully in a spring pattern here with nothing but record temps interrupted by inside slider cool downs. No precip being shown on the long range models. Once we hit April our meaningful precip chances are over.  I have a feeling this summers fire season will be historic for California. 

The atmosphere on Weatherwest is pretty grim right now to say the least.

[AlTahoe 387]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

The atmosphere on Weatherwest is pretty grim right now to say the least.

Yeah it has been too much of a downer over there so I have not been posting/visiting as much. At least your guys awesome snow storm brought some excitement to the weather community. 

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

55 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I have a feeling this summers fire season will be historic for California. 

Last year's was bad enough, I could be wrong but with the amount of burn areas from September last year I'm thinking this one may be a little easier on fire fighters?

 

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And no matter how many more feet of rain we get up here... that won't protect us from all that CA smoke this summer.

I am hoping for another March Miracle in CA.   It would be nice if nature decided to spread things out and stop focusing everything on BC and WA... we have more than enough up here.

Honestly if it wasn't for the east windstorm Labor Day, for the most part I had a relatively smokeless summer minus about maybe a weeks worth of thick smoke. I remember going through nearly all of August with good air quality here, and K-Falls is known by locals to have particularly smoky air in August, usually easing by September (2020 changed a few rules). By sheer number of smoke days, 2018 tops all the years I've been through, that was about 4 months straight of off/on not so great air and then bad air.

[Rubus Leucodermis 1320]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

It shows some that snow falling in the next 6 hours there through 1 p.m. today.    And most of the snow is actually shown on Thursday morning.  

Sorry, I was thinking of the Euro and not subtracting 8 from the times properly.

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

32 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Even during the year without a winter 2014-2015 we still received rain storms that came in from the south. This year we have literally had 1 storm come in from the Pacific which is mind blowing. Everything else has been inside sliders from the north. This same pattern has been stuck for 2 years now. 

Yeah there was a decent amount of rain that season, and each month from October to February had wind events. I had a 65-68mph event I think Feb 8-9 2015. The power was bumping at 3am, almost lost it in that. 

[MossMan 10567]

Snow!!

[TT-SEA 3697]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Snow!!

Falling now?

[MossMan 10567]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Falling now?

Straight snow for about 5 minutes. Now it’s a snow/rain/ice pellet mix. 

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Straight snow for about 5 minutes. Now it’s a snow/rain/ice pellet mix. 

That was a fun 5 minutes of winter! Back to D- weather

[Jesse 8874]

39 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The atmosphere on Weatherwest is pretty grim right now to say the least.

I figured they would be happy to avoid so much Scottish weather 

[TheNewCulverJosh 404]

I'm ready for spring.  Was working outside yesterday in the mid 50's with the sun on my shoulders.  Let's do this!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido 5580]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

And no matter how many more feet of rain we get up here... that won't protect us from all that CA smoke this summer.

I am hoping for another March Miracle in CA.   It would be nice if nature decided to spread things out and stop focusing everything on BC and WA... we have more than enough up here.

I have more bad news. It won't be just CA fire smoke that makes it up your way. We were in the -17"-18" range below normal rainfall for last water year and we are lower than normal so far this year. If spring only has one brief wet period down this way then it's going to be another year like last year.

Obviously it's a different story up north, but the rapid warming and drying from here south is alarming IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14806]

If you like split flow hell you will LUV the 12z GFS. 

[Jesse 8874]

17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I have more bad news. It won't be just CA fire smoke that makes it up your way. We were in the -17"-18" range below normal rainfall for last water year and we are lower than normal so far this year. If spring only has one brief wet period down this way then it's going to be another year like last year.

Obviously it's a different story up north, but the rapid warming and drying from here south is alarming IMO.

Fire smoke from far away can make the sky look ugly and hazy, but only local smoke can trap us in suffocating low level inversions like recent years.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5580]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Fire smoke from far away can make the sky look ugly and hazy, but only local smoke can trap us in suffocating low level inversions like recent years.

I guess it could be both to worry about then? IDK.