Part III: February 2021 PacNW

[Jesse 8835]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If you like split flow hell you will LUV the 12z GFS. 

Split flow could be good                                       for                                                                                     california

[Jesse 8835]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I guess it could be both to worry about then? IDK.

My point was local (regional) conditions matter more for smoke concerns. At least the type of smoke that gives us dangerous air quality for a week and a half. Distant smoke from other regions sticks to the upper levels generally.

[Phil 11712]

32 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I'm ready for spring.  Was working outside yesterday in the mid 50's with the sun on my shoulders.  Let's do this!!!

Dislike.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5564]

Just now, Jesse said:

Split flow could be good                                       for                                                                                     california

Assuming the southern jet isn't suppressed too far south, would then northern CA still have problems?

[TT-SEA 3622]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Fire smoke from far away can make the sky look ugly and hazy, but only local smoke can trap us in suffocating low level inversions like recent years.

Disagree... smoke from BC and CA has made for some pretty ugly situations here in recent years (e.g. 2015, 2017, 2018)

It might not be as bad as last year with the fires in Oregon... but it was still really bad.    

[Jesse 8835]

Ended up with a seasonably cool low of 36 this morning. Currently overcast and 40.

[AlTahoe 387]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Disagree... smoke from BC and CA has made for some pretty ugly situations here in recent years (e.g. 2015, 2017, 2018)

It might not be as bad as last year with the fires in Oregon... but it was still really bad.    

We had AQI of 200+ for almost 90 straight days up here and all of the fires were 300 miles to our west and 300 miles south. Were in a bowl though so the smoke settles in over the cold water. 

[Jesse 8835]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We had AQI of 200+ for almost 90 straight days up here and all of the fires were 300 miles to our west and 300 miles south. Were in a bowl though so the smoke settles in over the cold water. 

I hear Scotland isn't very smoky.

[Jesse 8835]

Looks like PDX made it into the 30s this morning.

[Omegaraptor 2370]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I hear Scotland isn't very smoky.

South Lake Tahoe has a colder average temperature than Glasgow and Edinburgh.

SLT's climate is massively superior to either of those two though.

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

31 minutes ago, Jesse said:

My point was local (regional) conditions matter more for smoke concerns. At least the type of smoke that gives us dangerous air quality for a week and a half. Distant smoke from other regions sticks to the upper levels generally.

Yeah the stuff that gave PDX indexes into the 500's in AQI were from the fires right on the west slopes of the cascades in Clackamas/Marion Counties. I touched that range briefly from the Chiloquin area fire, but even that wasn't quite close enough to cause a blood red sky like I've seen in various photos. I just had a fine white smoke the whole duration.

[Jesse 8835]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

South Lake Tahoe has a colder average temperature than Glasgow and Edinburgh.

SLT's climate is massively superior to either of those two though.

How does it rate on Koppen's Massive Superiority scale?

[TigerWoodsLibido 5564]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Yeah the stuff that gave PDX indexes into the 500's in AQI were from the fires right on the west slopes of the cascades in Clackamas/Marion Counties. I touched that range briefly from the Chiloquin area fire, but even that wasn't quite close enough to cause a blood red sky like I've seen in various photos. I just had a fine white smoke the whole duration.

Yup, we were worse than 500 aqi here for over a week and had to wear gas masks in the house thanks to the Holiday Farm Fire.

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

16 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We had AQI of 200+ for almost 90 straight days up here and all of the fires were 300 miles to our west and 300 miles south. Were in a bowl though so the smoke settles in over the cold water. 

2018 was a lot more prolonged and to top it off there was maybe 1 or 2 times I had rainfall from convection. Whereas at least in 2015 it rained a heckuva lot in the summer and it wasn't just a straight shot of smoke the entire summer at my place.

[Jesse 8835]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup, we were worse than 500 aqi here for over a week and had to wear gas masks in the house thanks to the Holiday Farm Fire.

Almost exactly like that year we had some upper atmospheric smoke from Siberia.

[ShawniganLake 5443]

29F here this morning.  
 

losing sleep most nights over the possible fire smoke situation this summer. 

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup, we were worse than 500 aqi here for over a week and had to wear gas masks in the house thanks to the Holiday Farm Fire.

I may have gotten some of the thick smoke from Medford area. Also who knows what else is being carried into the air when a community like Talent or Phoenix burns down (really sad, I don't know if they can rebuild), overall not healthy to breath any of that in.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5564]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

I may have gotten some of the thick smoke from Medford area. Also who knows what else is being carried into the air when a community like Talent or Phoenix burns down (really sad, I don't know if they can rebuild), overall not healthy to breath any of that in.

Or Detroit, which went full Champoeg in fire form.

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Almost exactly like that year we had some upper atmospheric smoke from Siberia.

#RussianCollusion

[Omegaraptor 2370]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

How does it rate on Koppen's Massive Superiority scale?

The Koppen system is heavily flawed, as is any system that classifies climate by arbitrary thermal thresholds. I don't pay too much attention to it in most cases.

[TT-SEA 3622]

7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Almost exactly like that year we had some upper atmospheric smoke from Siberia.

Yep... its either gas masks or just a thin elevated layer.   There is no in between.   BC and CA smoke is the same as Siberian smoke here.   CA is the same distance away as Siberia.    Some really nice nuance to your commentary this morning!  

BC and CA smoke does not result in end-of-the-world 500 AQI like having a massive fire just down the road (e.g. Eugene in 2020)... but it can be WAY nastier than smoke from Siberia.     There were flight delays at SEA from BC smoke in 2017.   It was absolutely terrible.    Same thing can happen with smoke from CA.    It can get really bad here.     And no amount of rain in WA or northern OR will prevent that from happening.   We need CA to get copious precip in March and April.   

[Jesse 8835]

17 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The Koppen system is heavily flawed, as is any system that classifies climate by arbitrary thermal thresholds. I don't pay too much attention to it in most cases.

I prefer the OmegaSystem, which classifies the massive superiority of a climate by its absolute spatial distance from the observer and weighted by the differential from his or her current weather conditions. Cold, calculating objectivity is where its brilliance truly lies.

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Or Detroit, which went full Champoeg in fire form.

If its still up, I recall seeing a video of someone fleeing the Detroit Lake area early in the morning, trees on both sides of the car in flames and embers flying in front of them. I just don't think I can grasp fully what they were going through.

I went to Detroit Lake a couple times years ago so I hope that place can be recognizable in the future.

[BLI snowman 6757]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November was dry here. 1/2" of ZR when we have never had ZR since I moved here was pretty noteworthy. My only living grandparent grew up in Buffalo, NY. It would take a lot to get her attention in terms of winter weather. She's lived in San Diego since 1962 though, she came to visit for Christmas in 1990 and vowed she would never again visit in the winter, she has kept that vow. 

We need to get her back up here ASAP.

[TT-SEA 3622]

The Friday/Saturday trough does not dig back as much on the 12Z ECMWF as previous runs.    As a result... it has taken away most of the snow that it showed yesterday for Friday night.   

 

[MossMan 10553]

I see we are on the smoke train this morning...My August trip to my uncles summer place just north of Orondo was much more pleasant than our September trip over there. 

[TT-SEA 3622]

Total snow through Sunday afternoon per the 12Z ECMWF.    And the weekend still looks pretty much dry on this run.

 

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I see we are on the smoke train this morning...My August trip to my uncles summer place just north of Orondo was much more pleasant than our September trip over there. 

Seemed to come in waves in southern OR. The initial Labor Day event went from like 20 AQI to >300's in less than an hour at sunset. Winds were high enough in parts of K-Falls to down a couple power lines and throw limbs across streets. This was one of the fastest changes in observations I've ever experienced. 

I took pics on Sep 10 and 13 of the air looking relatively cleaner, then around Sep 14-15 got soup thick again. I started clocking AQIs in the low 500's at night.

There were about 3 weeks or so of August with quite breathable air. Unusual year. 

[Jesse 8835]

10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

If its still up, I recall seeing a video of someone fleeing the Detroit Lake area early in the morning, trees on both sides of the car in flames and embers flying in front of them. I just don't think I can grasp fully what they were going through.

I went to Detroit Lake a couple times years ago so I hope that place can be recognizable in the future.

I drove through there in October and it was absolutely devastating. 

[ShawniganLake 5443]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Sunday afternoon per the 12Z ECMWF.    And the weekend still looks pretty much dry on this run.

 

Been pretty consistent in showing a couple inches here tomorrow night.  It’ll probably come down to precip intensity if we get shadowed with WNW flow. 

[snow_wizard 11637]

The ECMWF is horrible with the second trough.  It doesn't back dig enough to cut off the onshore flow.  It barely even gets cold.  At least the next couple of day look chilly with a good frost tonight.

In other news the EPS and GEFS are already picking up on a strong signal for a favorable block developing somewhere in the March 5 to March 10 period.  Pretty remarkable to have the GEFS already showing a mean below -5 850s for that far out.  If any March could pull out a major surprise it would be this one.  At least it could be more enjoyable than a typical March here.

[iFred 5153]

Talking with a family friend that spends a lot of their time in the woods and is close to the some of the DNR folks. The concern seems to be that we narrowly avoided a west side fire event and unless conditions change, the recent undergrowth is only adding to that.

[TT-SEA 3622]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is horrible with the second trough.  It doesn't back dig enough to cut off the onshore flow.  It barely even gets cold.  At least the next couple of day look chilly with a good frost tonight.

In other news the EPS and GEFS are already picking up on a strong signal for a favorable block developing somewhere in the March 5 to March 10 period.  Pretty remarkable to have the GEFS already showing a mean below -5 850s for that far out.  If any March could pull out a major surprise it would be this one.  At least it could be more enjoyable than a typical March here.

12Z ECMWF also shows some lovely weather for next week... we even have the West Coast warm finger showing up again.   

[TT-SEA 3622]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Talking with a family friend that spends a lot of their time in the woods and is close to the some of the DNR folks. The concern seems to be that we narrowly avoided a west side fire event and unless conditions change, the recent undergrowth is only adding to that.

The Oregon fires were triggered by a very unusual early season cold trough digging into the West.  Without that crazy strong offshore flow it would not have been nearly as bad.  

And the WA Cascades are about as wet and snowy as it can be right now.

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The Oregon fires were triggered by a very unusual early season cold trough digging into the West.  Without that crazy strong offshore flow it would not have been nearly as bad.  

And the WA Cascades are about as wet and snowy as it can be right now.

They started as basically bonfires, or some that were smoldering from late Aug storms.. The east winds with single digit humidity added fire to fire. And to my understanding folks were camping that day as well. All these things came together like a perfect storm.

[TT-SEA 3622]

12Z ECMWF just goes with a West Coast ridge and warmth next week... instead of split flow which could be very beneficial for CA.

[TT-SEA 3622]

6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

They started as basically bonfires, or some that were smoldering from late Aug storms.. The east winds with single digit humidity added fire to fire. And to my understanding folks were camping that day as well. All these things came together like a perfect storm.

Yeah... it was a tragic set of circumstances.    Those conditions have happened in the past as well.    It was similar to the Yacolt fire in 1902.

[MossMan 10553]

9 minutes ago, iFred said:

Talking with a family friend that spends a lot of their time in the woods and is close to the some of the DNR folks. The concern seems to be that we narrowly avoided a west side fire event and unless conditions change, the recent undergrowth is only adding to that.

There was one evening that I was quite worried for the first time ever living over here that something bad could have gone down in my area. I’m basically on top of the 15,000 acre Pilchuck tree farm and my 5 acre property is mostly all wooded...I was running all of my impact sprinklers all around the house but if it came down to it that probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference. 

[Jesse 8835]

Is this the end times Andrew 

@SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan 10553]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Is this the end times Andrew 

@SilverFallsAndrew

We all should buy jetskies and ride off into the sunset. 

[GHweatherChris 3484]

Wow, we now have a bunch of wildfire experts on the forum, this place just keeps getting smarter. 

[Deweydog 14074]

Fire is the devil’s only friend. The danger of which is exacerbated when the levee is dry.  

[BLI snowman 6757]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is horrible with the second trough.  It doesn't back dig enough to cut off the onshore flow.  It barely even gets cold.  At least the next couple of day look chilly with a good frost tonight.

In other news the EPS and GEFS are already picking up on a strong signal for a favorable block developing somewhere in the March 5 to March 10 period.  Pretty remarkable to have the GEFS already showing a mean below -5 850s for that far out.  If any March could pull out a major surprise it would be this one.  At least it could be more enjoyable than a typical March here.

That's the period I'm watching as well. Probably going to be our last shot at widespread snow.

[snow_wizard 11637]

The ECMWF certainly makes up for the disappointment with the second trough with a nice clipper a couple of days later that provides some solidly cold mins afterward.  I always like clippers because they are often followed by nice crisp weather.

[Jesse 8835]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fire is the devil’s only friend. The danger of which is exacerbated when the levee is dry.  

No Angel born in hell (Washington county) could break that satan’s spell.

[MossMan 10553]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fire is the devil’s only friend. The danger of which is exacerbated when the levee is dry.  

We just need to all buy Chevy’s towing jet skies and get them to the levee before the levee is dry so we can all ride into the sunset! 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14736]

55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We need to get her back up here ASAP.

She's 97. Time is running out.

[Jesse 8835]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF certainly makes up for the disappointment with the second trough with a nice clipper a couple of days later that provides some solidly cold mins afterward.  I always like clippers because they are often followed by nice crisp weather.

I haven’t looked at the 12z Euro yet but it sounds like a pretty trashy run. 

[snow_wizard 11637]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The Oregon fires were triggered by a very unusual early season cold trough digging into the West.  Without that crazy strong offshore flow it would not have been nearly as bad.  

And the WA Cascades are about as wet and snowy as it can be right now.

I totally agree.  Those were extraordinary conditions that triggered that mess last year. It was already bone dry and then that Canadian air mass turned it into a tinder box with wind.

[Jesse 8835]

Dark morning on the forum