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Part III: February 2021 PacNW


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1 hour ago, mtep said:

Kinda late but I figured I'd share my thoughts on the last week. That was pretty dope! 4 subfreezing highs, a good 6-8inch snowpack for a good 48hrs, almost a week of lows in the 20s, wicked wind chills in the teens and even single digits not too far north of me, and some of the driest snow I've ever seen anywhere, let alone the PNW. The early warning shot on the 8th(right?) was also a nice treat, I'll take a dusting when I can get it. Yeah it would've been cool to have gotten real snow with the initial cold front, but it was still nice to be really cold and dry for a few days. The real magic with this event for me though was its timing. I broke my collarbone mountain biking back in late October during that nice cold front. I ended having to have two surgeries and spent much more time (3 months) in a sling and unable to work than I initially thought I would have to. If this storm had come a few weeks earlier, I would've still been in a sling waiting on my second surgery, unable to experience all the fun that comes with frigid temps and snow safely. But by the time all the pieces came together and that beautiful PV got slapped upside the head, I was 2 weeks post-op and ready to safely slide around in my Subie and even go camping in the snow with my buddy in Birch Bay. All in all, I'd give this winter a B++ weather wise, and would rank it 3rd out of my 5 winters here behind '18-'19 and '16-'17. Would have liked to have seen the cold last longer with some frigid sunny days, but can't complain. Any winter here beats Texas and Saudi Arabia! 😂

Never even occurred to me to bomb up to camp at Birch Bay for one of these events until you mentioned it.  I'll bet that was fun!  One of these days I need to get the ole kayak out for one of these events.  Problem is my dry suit has shrunk (at least that's the story I'm going with) and until I can get it "stretched out" to fit better, I am stuck on dry land during the winter months.  

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14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Never even occurred to me to bomb up to camp at Birch Bay for one of these events until you mentioned it.  I'll bet that was fun!  One of these days I need to get the ole kayak out for one of these events.  Problem is my dry suit has shrunk (at least that's the story I'm going with) and until I can get it "stretched out" to fit better, I am stuck on dry land during the winter months.  

It was a cool campground to experience the storm in! I usually prefer to camp on DNR land or smaller BLM type campgrounds so I can take full advantage of the wilderness and not bother anyone with loud boozy conversations late at night lol but this time of year we were the only ones in tents everyone else was in RVs so it felt somewhat private 😂 The bay does seem like a really nice kayaking spot though I bet its got great views on clear days from the water. 

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For anyone that hasn't looked at the latest CFS ENSO forecasts it shows the Nino 3.4 SST's falling into the abyss later in the year.  It appears the model has no doubt next winter will be a major Nina.  Given the latest SOI numbers it might be onto something.  Second year Ninas usually don't feature the delayed onset of cold weather in the winter like first year Ninas do.  This might give us a solid shot at a cool summer as well.  Very often that means cool and quite dry.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, mtep said:

It was a cool campground to experience the storm in! I usually prefer to camp on DNR land or smaller BLM type campgrounds so I can take full advantage of the wilderness and not bother anyone with loud boozy conversations late at night lol but this time of year we were the only ones in tents everyone else was in RVs so it felt somewhat private 😂 The bay does seem like a really nice kayaking spot though I bet its got great views on clear days from the water. 

To clarify . . . You spent the night in a tent while it was snowing with 50 mph winds and in the low-mid 20's? That's hardcore.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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5 minutes ago, mtep said:

It was a cool campground to experience the storm in! I usually prefer to camp on DNR land or smaller BLM type campgrounds so I can take full advantage of the wilderness and not bother anyone with loud boozy conversations late at night lol but this time of year we were the only ones in tents everyone else was in RVs so it felt somewhat private 😂 The bay does seem like a really nice kayaking spot though I bet its got great views on clear days from the water. 

LOL yeah I like to get away from folks as well.  I usually go to Lummi or Skagit Island, but Lummi would have definitely been out of the question with the northerly gale.  Skagit Island has pretty big fetch to the north for part of the transit, so I'll bet it got rocking and rolling there as well.  

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The winds weren’t 50 mph by the time the snow began. Maybe 20 max.

Actually it looks like Friday night there were still 35 mph wind gusts hitting KBLI, and with a temp of 25, that single digit to teens wind chill probably felt pretty gnarly.

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Actually it looks like Friday night there were still 35 mph wind gusts hitting KBLI, and with a temp of 25, that single digit to teens wind chill probably felt pretty gnarly.

Interesting. It seemed to have really calmed down by then at my place. Still enough to make the snow drift a lot, but my condo wasn't shuddering in the gusts like it had been.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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27 minutes ago, mtep said:

It was a cool campground to experience the storm in! I usually prefer to camp on DNR land or smaller BLM type campgrounds so I can take full advantage of the wilderness and not bother anyone with loud boozy conversations late at night lol but this time of year we were the only ones in tents everyone else was in RVs so it felt somewhat private 😂 The bay does seem like a really nice kayaking spot though I bet its got great views on clear days from the water. 

Meanwhile this was my Friday night...Early Saturday morning style of roughing it while watching the snow fall! 🤣

D1239797-ACD3-4B5B-B6A1-136D5BEABFF7.jpeg

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1 hour ago, AbbyJr said:

Phil, any idea what the ENSO and QBO may do next winter?

Likely -ENSO/-QBO 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Looks like we made it down to 39F so it'll be a 54/39 day and mostly dry with a scattered shower. Not too shabby.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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We’ve really been on a roll here in terms of snowfall the last few years since the really bad winters of 14-15 and 15-16. We’ve had atleast 2” of snow every year since. 
16-17 8.0” DEC 3.0” FEB 5.0”

17-18 5.5” NOV 0.5” DEC 2.0” FEB 3.0”

18-19 23.5” FEB 22.0” MAR 1.5”

19-20 2.0” JAN 1.5” FEB 0.5”

20-21 15.5” FEB 15.5” 

I’m pretty hopeful for next winter as well. The only kind of lame winter was 19-20 however we did manage to still come away with a couple days of snow and cold with it. One thing we’ve kind of been lacking is significant cold anomalies. 
16-17 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-7

17-18 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-2

18-19 (-32) highs-4 (-25) lows-5

19-20 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-1

20-21 (-32) highs-2 (-25) lows-2

Numbers in the teens and low 20s are even less impressive.

16-17 (-22) lows-1 (21)

18-19 (-22) lows-4 (19) (21) (21) (16)

Hoping next winter can deliver some legit cold and snow combinations. We’ve done really well with snowfall lately but lacking major cold spells. Hasn’t been below 25 degrees here in Tacoma since 2/10/19 (16). Also haven’t had a high temp below 30 degrees since February 2014. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’ve really been on a roll here in terms of snowfall the last few years since the really bad winters of 14-15 and 15-16. We’ve had atleast 2” of snow every year since. 
16-17 8.0” DEC 3.0” FEB 5.0”

17-18 5.5” NOV 0.5” DEC 2.0” FEB 3.0”

18-19 23.5” FEB 22.0” MAR 1.5”

19-20 2.0” JAN 1.5” FEB 0.5”

20-21 15.5” FEB 15.5” 

I’m pretty hopeful for next winter as well. The only kind of lame winter was 19-20 however we did manage to still come away with a couple days of snow and cold with it. One thing we’ve kind of been lacking is significant cold anomalies. 
16-17 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-7

17-18 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-2

18-19 (-32) highs-4 (-25) lows-5

19-20 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-1

20-21 (-32) highs-2 (-25) lows-2

Numbers in the teens and low 20s are even less impressive.

16-17 (-22) lows-1 (21)

18-19 (-22) lows-4 (19) (21) (21) (16)

Hoping next winter can deliver some legit cold and snow combinations. We’ve done really well with snowfall lately but lacking major cold spells. Hasn’t been below 25 degrees here in Tacoma since 2/10/19 (16). Also haven’t had a high temp below 30 degrees since February 2014. 

The most tantalizing part of this whole "cold drought" is that we haven't been lacking in airmasses. In fact, the last two years have both harbored remarkable airmasses in SW Canada.... Just no Pacific cooperation to assist in driving it south into the region. Only trickling, with no arctic air making it south of Salem.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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6 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

To clarify . . . You spent the night in a tent while it was snowing with 50 mph winds and in the low-mid 20's? That's hardcore.

Camping with 50+ mph wind is no fun. The tent is literally in your face all night. 

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7 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

The snow has been hanging on real well here in the hills above Portland which has been surprising with the temps and sun breaks. 35 degrees out currently with a solid 4-5 inch snow cover still.

 

51E095B4-40E7-4CEA-BCD4-167693AA720D.jpeg

Still hanging on down here in the central parts

20210217_081840.jpg

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Roseburg and Medford getting some love.

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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10 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

To clarify . . . You spent the night in a tent while it was snowing with 50 mph winds and in the low-mid 20's? That's hardcore.

Luckily the wind wasn't too bad but it was very cold! It was our first time winter camping but  we bought decent equipment and I slept fairly warm. Amazing what 35 degree bag from amazon with a liner and a couple of R2 pads can do. 

Edit: its worth mentioning that the trees around the campground at BB state park do an amaaazing job of protecting campers from the wind. A couple times during the night we walked down to the beach and as soon as we left the treeline it was absolute hell. Would not have made it through the night if the campground hadnt been well sheltered from the NE wind. 

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Nice run on the parallel this morning!  Probably about the best we could expect with that PV in play.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Next week has the potential to be pretty snowy up here it looks like. We'll see. It was snowing this morning when I left for the office. 

Day 6 with no power. Some people think it might be back on Friday/Saturday, that seems really optimistic. Much of Silverton is still out. 

Glad we got the generator after Labor Day, it has been a life saver. Not hooked up to the well though, so no water. Our daughter thinks the whole situation is great fun. 

Looks active and cool to end February, maybe some ridging to start March? Probably a mirage. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next week has the potential to be pretty snowy up here it looks like. We'll see. It was snowing this morning when I left for the office. 

Day 6 with no power. Some people think it might be back on Friday/Saturday, that seems really optimistic. Much of Silverton is still out. 

Glad we got the generator after Labor Day, it has been a life saver. Not hooked up to the well though, so no water. Our daughter thinks the whole situation is great fun. 

Looks active and cool to end February, maybe some ridging to start March? Probably a mirage. 

A lot of model runs now seem to want to shut down the Pacific in the long range. Can be ridging, but definitely doesn't have to be.

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next week has the potential to be pretty snowy up here it looks like. We'll see. It was snowing this morning when I left for the office. 

Day 6 with no power. Some people think it might be back on Friday/Saturday, that seems really optimistic. Much of Silverton is still out. 

Glad we got the generator after Labor Day, it has been a life saver. Not hooked up to the well though, so no water. Our daughter thinks the whole situation is great fun. 

Looks active and cool to end February, maybe some ridging to start March? Probably a mirage. 

I didn't realize you had lost power. 6 days is insane. 

Hope you all are holding out oaky. 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

A lot of model runs now seem to want to shut down the Pacific in the long range. Can be ridging, but definitely doesn't have to be.

Those troughs next week look interesting. What do the long range ensembles look like? I am so out of the loop. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I didn't realize you had lost power. 6 days is insane. 

Hope you all are holding out oaky. 

Thanks! Yeah we are doing alright. The damage up where we live is not bad actually, but once you get a little closer to town its pretty devastating. Power crews are working hard, but they have a lot to do!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next week has the potential to be pretty snowy up here it looks like. We'll see. It was snowing this morning when I left for the office. 

Day 6 with no power. Some people think it might be back on Friday/Saturday, that seems really optimistic. Much of Silverton is still out. 

Glad we got the generator after Labor Day, it has been a life saver. Not hooked up to the well though, so no water. Our daughter thinks the whole situation is great fun. 

Looks active and cool to end February, maybe some ridging to start March? Probably a mirage. 

Good to hear from you Andrew. Hope you are well.

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9 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’ve really been on a roll here in terms of snowfall the last few years since the really bad winters of 14-15 and 15-16. We’ve had atleast 2” of snow every year since. 
16-17 8.0” DEC 3.0” FEB 5.0”

17-18 5.5” NOV 0.5” DEC 2.0” FEB 3.0”

18-19 23.5” FEB 22.0” MAR 1.5”

19-20 2.0” JAN 1.5” FEB 0.5”

20-21 15.5” FEB 15.5” 

I’m pretty hopeful for next winter as well. The only kind of lame winter was 19-20 however we did manage to still come away with a couple days of snow and cold with it. One thing we’ve kind of been lacking is significant cold anomalies. 
16-17 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-7

17-18 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-2

18-19 (-32) highs-4 (-25) lows-5

19-20 (-32) highs-0 (-25) lows-1

20-21 (-32) highs-2 (-25) lows-2

Numbers in the teens and low 20s are even less impressive.

16-17 (-22) lows-1 (21)

18-19 (-22) lows-4 (19) (21) (21) (16)

Hoping next winter can deliver some legit cold and snow combinations. We’ve done really well with snowfall lately but lacking major cold spells. Hasn’t been below 25 degrees here in Tacoma since 2/10/19 (16). Also haven’t had a high temp below 30 degrees since February 2014. 

I have a lot more cold mins than you, but you beat me on snow both in Feb 2019 and this month so far.  Really bad luck in totally different ways on both of those months here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I have a lot more cold mins than you, but you beat me on snow both in Feb 2019 and this month so far.  Really bad luck in totally different ways on both of those months here.

I think you could throw a dart at just about anywhere in the state and find colder mins than that location.

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33 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Cloudy and 37 this morning after a low of 35. Nice to keep some moderately chilly weather around and not go straight into torching following the cold spell.

Low of 35 here also.  It's pretty obvious no torches are coming soon either.  My streak of sub 50 highs may go to 50 days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think you could throw a dart at just about anywhere in the state and find colder mins than that location.

Very true.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Nice to finally see big league cold in the Lower 48. Probably going to see a chilly spring. Feels like maybe we've finally turned a corner, for a few years... 

No description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice to finally see big league cold in the Lower 48. Probably going to see a chilly spring. Feels like maybe we've finally turned a corner, for a few years... 

No description available.

Hope you are doing well Andrew.

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