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Sustained dateline subsidence as we approach the spring equinox is moderately to strongly associated with the continuation of -ENSO conditions thru boreal summer. Odds of a multiyear niña continue to increase, esp given -PMM signal.
 

0E9626BB-8762-4C34-8C47-1B68BECC8C3C.png

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hi Friends! 

Hope all is well, been a while since I got a chance to post on here because life got a little bit hectic so to speak, so a quick update from me. Shortly, after the snowstorm here couple weeks ago my 72 year old mother and I came down with covid. We don't know how we got it and my mom was also due for her vaccine couple days prior to getting sick, so it was very unfortunate.

I recently just recovered (not fun!) but sadly my mother's conditions deteriorated and she was hospitalized last week.  We were hoping that she would get better by now after being in the hospital but, her conditions has not improved at all. Her oxygen level has been incredibly low, even with the supplemental oxygen they've given her and the doctors made the decision today to put her on the ventilator to see if she gets better. We're praying that she will be. 

A quick update and hope to get back to talking weather with you guys soon! Take care!

So sorry to hear! Thoughts are with you and your mom. A relative of mine had to be airlifted to the hospital almost a month ago he was in such bad shape with Covid, and ended up on the ventilator. He did very slowly start to recover and finally got to go home today. Hopefully the ventilator will help your mom get through the hardest time as well. 

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13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hi Friends! 

Hope all is well, been a while since I got a chance to post on here because life got a little bit hectic so to speak, so a quick update from me. Shortly, after the snowstorm here couple weeks ago my 72 year old mother and I came down with covid. We don't know how we got it and my mom was also due for her vaccine couple days prior to getting sick, so it was very unfortunate.

I recently just recovered (not fun!) but sadly my mother's conditions deteriorated and she was hospitalized last week.  We were hoping that she would get better by now after being in the hospital but, her conditions has not improved at all. Her oxygen level has been incredibly low, even with the supplemental oxygen they've given her and the doctors made the decision today to put her on the ventilator to see if she gets better. We're praying that she will be. 

A quick update and hope to get back to talking weather with you guys soon! Take care!

Hoping for a quick recovery. I'll say a pray tonight for her. 

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30 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hi Friends! 

Hope all is well, been a while since I got a chance to post on here because life got a little bit hectic so to speak, so a quick update from me. Shortly, after the snowstorm here couple weeks ago my 72 year old mother and I came down with covid. We don't know how we got it and my mom was also due for her vaccine couple days prior to getting sick, so it was very unfortunate.

I recently just recovered (not fun!) but sadly my mother's conditions deteriorated and she was hospitalized last week.  We were hoping that she would get better by now after being in the hospital but, her conditions has not improved at all. Her oxygen level has been incredibly low, even with the supplemental oxygen they've given her and the doctors made the decision today to put her on the ventilator to see if she gets better. We're praying that she will be. 

A quick update and hope to get back to talking weather with you guys soon! Take care!

Sending your Mom some good vibes, energy, prayers, and anything I can from a distance.

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49 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hi Friends! 

Hope all is well, been a while since I got a chance to post on here because life got a little bit hectic so to speak, so a quick update from me. Shortly, after the snowstorm here couple weeks ago my 72 year old mother and I came down with covid. We don't know how we got it and my mom was also due for her vaccine couple days prior to getting sick, so it was very unfortunate.

I recently just recovered (not fun!) but sadly my mother's conditions deteriorated and she was hospitalized last week.  We were hoping that she would get better by now after being in the hospital but, her conditions has not improved at all. Her oxygen level has been incredibly low, even with the supplemental oxygen they've given her and the doctors made the decision today to put her on the ventilator to see if she gets better. We're praying that she will be. 

A quick update and hope to get back to talking weather with you guys soon! Take care!

Prayers on the way!

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Hi Friends! 

Hope all is well, been a while since I got a chance to post on here because life got a little bit hectic so to speak, so a quick update from me. Shortly, after the snowstorm here couple weeks ago my 72 year old mother and I came down with covid. We don't know how we got it and my mom was also due for her vaccine couple days prior to getting sick, so it was very unfortunate.

I recently just recovered (not fun!) but sadly my mother's conditions deteriorated and she was hospitalized last week.  We were hoping that she would get better by now after being in the hospital but, her conditions has not improved at all. Her oxygen level has been incredibly low, even with the supplemental oxygen they've given her and the doctors made the decision today to put her on the ventilator to see if she gets better. We're praying that she will be. 

A quick update and hope to get back to talking weather with you guys soon! Take care!

D****T man. This sucks. Sending her prayers.

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Some pretty decent stats on the chilly side of the ledger for MBY over the past several weeks.

Still looking at a decent shot at a monthly average below 40, every min temperature since the 6th has been 40 or below, and there has only been one 50+ max during the past 40 days.  Seems like we have turned a corner here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Hi Friends! 

Hope all is well, been a while since I got a chance to post on here because life got a little bit hectic so to speak, so a quick update from me. Shortly, after the snowstorm here couple weeks ago my 72 year old mother and I came down with covid. We don't know how we got it and my mom was also due for her vaccine couple days prior to getting sick, so it was very unfortunate.

I recently just recovered (not fun!) but sadly my mother's conditions deteriorated and she was hospitalized last week.  We were hoping that she would get better by now after being in the hospital but, her conditions has not improved at all. Her oxygen level has been incredibly low, even with the supplemental oxygen they've given her and the doctors made the decision today to put her on the ventilator to see if she gets better. We're praying that she will be. 

A quick update and hope to get back to talking weather with you guys soon! Take care!

So sad to hear that.  What a bummer that she had been so close to being vaccinated.

Were you and your mother together at any time during the period in question?  If so, maybe you can narrow down how you got it.  If not it goes to show it's almost just a roll of the dice.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

First legit -PMM since 2012.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

What's the PMM?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 hours ago, Phil said:

First legit -PMM since 2012.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Just for clarification... the PMM was more solidly negative at this point in the year in 2013.  

2/23/2013 on top and latest SSTA map (2/23/21) on the bottom...

 

2013 (1).png

2021 (4).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, Cloud said:

Hi Friends! 

Hope all is well, been a while since I got a chance to post on here because life got a little bit hectic so to speak, so a quick update from me. Shortly, after the snowstorm here couple weeks ago my 72 year old mother and I came down with covid. We don't know how we got it and my mom was also due for her vaccine couple days prior to getting sick, so it was very unfortunate.

I recently just recovered (not fun!) but sadly my mother's conditions deteriorated and she was hospitalized last week.  We were hoping that she would get better by now after being in the hospital but, her conditions has not improved at all. Her oxygen level has been incredibly low, even with the supplemental oxygen they've given her and the doctors made the decision today to put her on the ventilator to see if she gets better. We're praying that she will be. 

A quick update and hope to get back to talking weather with you guys soon! Take care!

Sorry to hear that, sending positive thoughts your mom's way for a speedy recovery.  

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13 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Here we go....first interview for a position back east this morning.  It's in Portsmouth NH which is on the Maine/NH border.  It's in a completely different field (construction Project Management/Project Controller) from what I was doing (aerospace) but a good buddy of mine gave my resume to his management and said they really liked it.  They called 3 days later to set up an interview (he thought it would be a few weeks before I heard).  Looking around my house that I am haven't even started packing yet wondering how TF I am going to get this all packed up within a couple of weeks...

Wow... this is happening fast!    Good luck! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Christensen87 said:

...ok 06z GFS 😂

Plz happen 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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30 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Here we go....first interview for a position back east this morning.  It's in Portsmouth NH which is on the Maine/NH border.  It's in a completely different field (construction Project Management/Project Controller) from what I was doing (aerospace) but a good buddy of mine gave my resume to his management and said they really liked it.  They called 3 days later to set up an interview (he thought it would be a few weeks before I heard).  Looking around my house that I am haven't even started packing yet wondering how TF I am going to get this all packed up within a couple of weeks...

Good luck!

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6 years ago I hiked the trail up Rampart Ridge at Mount Rainier. I had never done so in February, and there was NO snow at the bottom (Longmire) or top.
Then there is today's webcam image from Longmire. I can't even guess how many feet of snow there are on the ground...

39. G Rainier and Trail.jpg

2.26.21 Longmire 2.jpg

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SLE mean temp 

January: 43.4

February: 41.7

4th year in a row February will be colder than January at SLE. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Amazing how the ECMWF caved to the GFS for the system on Monday.

That system barely limps in here on Monday per the 06Z ECMWF... previous runs were much colder and wetter.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4643200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-4643200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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55 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Here we go....first interview for a position back east this morning.  It's in Portsmouth NH which is on the Maine/NH border.  It's in a completely different field (construction Project Management/Project Controller) from what I was doing (aerospace) but a good buddy of mine gave my resume to his management and said they really liked it.  They called 3 days later to set up an interview (he thought it would be a few weeks before I heard).  Looking around my house that I am haven't even started packing yet wondering how TF I am going to get this all packed up within a couple of weeks...

You might get to catch the tail end of snow season out there! They've had some pretty good April nor'easters.

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23 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:
6 years ago I hiked the trail up Rampart Ridge at Mount Rainier. I had never done so in February, and there was NO snow at the bottom (Longmire) or top.
Then there is today's webcam image from Longmire. I can't even guess how many feet of snow there are on the ground...

39. G Rainier and Trail.jpg

2.26.21 Longmire 2.jpg

 

It might not look like that top pic this year until late July or August!

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9 hours ago, Cloud said:

Hi Friends! 

Hope all is well, been a while since I got a chance to post on here because life got a little bit hectic so to speak, so a quick update from me. Shortly, after the snowstorm here couple weeks ago my 72 year old mother and I came down with covid. We don't know how we got it and my mom was also due for her vaccine couple days prior to getting sick, so it was very unfortunate.

I recently just recovered (not fun!) but sadly my mother's conditions deteriorated and she was hospitalized last week.  We were hoping that she would get better by now after being in the hospital but, her conditions has not improved at all. Her oxygen level has been incredibly low, even with the supplemental oxygen they've given her and the doctors made the decision today to put her on the ventilator to see if she gets better. We're praying that she will be. 

A quick update and hope to get back to talking weather with you guys soon! Take care!

So sorry to hear that. Hope your mom recovers! 

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It's been a bit! In person classes started this week in the schools so work got busy!

It has been spring like weather around here to the point I started to have allergies! But today back to winter like weather the low for today was 34 but it is currently 43. Showers are forecast for today and rain/snow for this evening into Saturday morning. 

 

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It should be noted that the GFS also shows the trough later next week closer to the coast and is much wetter as a result.   The ECMWF/EPS have been showing a couple dry days with mild temps in that period... but if the GFS leads the way again then that might not happen.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It should be noted that the GFS also shows the trough later next week closer to the coast and is much wetter as a result.   The ECMWF/EPS have been showing a couple dry days with mild temps in that period... but if the GFS leads the way again then that might not happen.

Interesting as the gfs has led the way the entire winter down here. Euro has been catching up around 2 days later than the GFS on our eventual pattern. So the old GFS has been rock solid, the Euro has been playing catch up and the new GFS is totally useless. 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for clarification... the PMM was more solidly negative at this point in the year in 2013.  

2/23/2013 on top and latest SSTA map (2/23/21) on the bottom...

 

2013 (1).png

2021 (4).png

True, technically a misstatement on my part. Though, it was waning, and the IPWP was quite extended into the dateline region. Also had westerly shear descending in 2013, verses easterly shear this year.

All in all, it’s not a good analog for 2021. Not even considering it right now.

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2 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Here we go....first interview for a position back east this morning.  It's in Portsmouth NH which is on the Maine/NH border.  It's in a completely different field (construction Project Management/Project Controller) from what I was doing (aerospace) but a good buddy of mine gave my resume to his management and said they really liked it.  They called 3 days later to set up an interview (he thought it would be a few weeks before I heard).  Looking around my house that I am haven't even started packing yet wondering how TF I am going to get this all packed up within a couple of weeks...

You’re a lucky man. I’m gonna be jealous watching you get blitzed by blizzards all winter.

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6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Interesting as the gfs has led the way the entire winter down here. Euro has been catching up around 2 days later than the GFS on our eventual pattern. So the old GFS has been rock solid, the Euro has been playing catch up and the new GFS is totally useless. 

The ECMWF loves SW US troughs. Always has. 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

True, technically a misstatement on my part. Though, it was waning, and the IPWP was quite extended into the dateline region. Also had westerly shear descending in 2013, verses easterly shear this year.

All in all, it’s not a good analog for 2021. Not even considering it right now.

2013 was the first of the run of never ending hot summers in the Willamette Valley. It never gets much love because it was overshadowed by what came after, and didn't have a signature heatwave. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Picked up 0.60" of rain overnight. Snow level has definitely dropped it was 34 with light snow when I left for work. 11.29" of precip on the month. 

Had some splats on the windshield here in Salem with that last shower, even though it is 40 degrees. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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