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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Hope you are doing well Andrew.

Sorry for not acknowledging you. Yes, I am well. Staying extremely busy this week, and this site isn't really working on my phone this week, which is why I have been absent. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice to finally see big league cold in the Lower 48. Probably going to see a chilly spring. Feels like maybe we've finally turned a corner, for a few years... 

No description available.

That off the charts -NAO finally came home to roost.  Looks like 19th century stuff right there!  Almost no snow though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That off the charts -NAO finally came home to roost.  Looks like 19th century stuff right there!  Almost no snow though.

They are getting 4-6" this morning. The first system earlier this week went a little south,  Tulsa got 5" earlier this week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

For anyone that hasn't looked at the latest CFS ENSO forecasts it shows the Nino 3.4 SST's falling into the abyss later in the year.  It appears the model has no doubt next winter will be a major Nina.  Given the latest SOI numbers it might be onto something.  Second year Ninas usually don't feature the delayed onset of cold weather in the winter like first year Ninas do.  This might give us a solid shot at a cool summer as well.  Very often that means cool and quite dry.

I wouldn’t trust the CFS verbatim, but given the structure of the IPWP and -PMM signature in the NPAC, a multiyear -ENSO event appears exceedingly likely.

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I think the plunge of cold air so far south east of the Rockies kind of dispels the notion that Arctic airmasses are unable to push as far south as they used due to climate change...

If the PNA block had been a bit dominant it would have been us.  No doubt our turn will come again.  In the meantime we have some solid winters as of late.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think you could throw a dart at just about anywhere in the state and find colder mins than that location.

Definitely true...but even for this location it’s been lacking cold anomalies. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the plunge of cold air so far south east of the Rockies kind of dispels the notion that Arctic airmasses are unable to push as far south as they used due to climate change...

If the PNA block had been a bit dominant it would have been us.  No doubt our turn will come again.  In the meantime we have some solid winters as of late.

We just barely got clipped by the edge of it and look what happened...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice to finally see big league cold in the Lower 48. Probably going to see a chilly spring. Feels like maybe we've finally turned a corner, for a few years... 

No description available.

I’ll drink to that. No more death ridges please and thank you.

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Just now, Phil said:

I wouldn’t trust the CFS verbatim, but given the structure of the IPWP and -PMM signature in the NPAC, a multiyear -ENSO event appears exceedingly likely.

It will be interesting to see what the QBO does next winter.  Something has disrupted the normal cycle of that in recent years. 

Maybe this is the beginning of the period of global cooling some have been expecting.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I know this isn't weather related, but I just heard Rush Limbaugh died today.  He will be missed by many.

Cancer is a f**king b*tch. I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Definitely true...but even for this location it’s been lacking cold anomalies. 

Feb 2019 was one of the coldest Febs of the past 120 years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It will be interesting to see what the QBO does next winter.  Something has disrupted the normal cycle of that in recent years. 

Maybe this is the beginning of the period of global cooling some have been expecting.

Too early to know if this is a true low frequency shift, but if it is, then yes, the -NAO/-NAM signal has me hopeful we’re at least going to see a pause in warming, if not some cooling going forward (given what it signals re: deep tropical convection/wind modes and z-cell behavior). Just takes a small, 1% increase in coverage of tropical convective clouds and/or wind stress to have a major impact on the planetary energy budget.

For a multitude of reasons, strong +NAO/+NAM regimes are generally a precursor to systemic warming a few years later (see mid-1990s and the 2013-18 period). Vice versa for -NAO/-NAM (see 1950/60s and briefly in 2008-12).

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Feb 2019 was one of the coldest Febs of the past 120 years.

October 2019 was the third coldest on record at PDX. Balmy compared to what the mountain West saw though.

The September 2019 cold snap is underrated as well. Top tier cold event, only problem is that it happened in September. Utterly destroyed tons of monthly cold records east of the Cascades and broke some on the westside too. Might not see it get that cold in September again for decades.

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We just barely got clipped by the edge of it and look what happened...

It came really close to crushing us though.  I saw a reading of -40 in southern BC last week.  As it is we still got some winter out of it without a doubt.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

October 2019 was the third coldest on record at PDX. Balmy compared to what the mountain West saw though.

The September 2019 cold snap is underrated as well. Top tier cold event, only problem is that it happened in September. Utterly destroyed tons of monthly cold records east of the Cascades and broke some on the westside too. 

No doubt.  I remember the Wenatchee Mountains had an unreal round of snow and cold in the September 2019 event.  Even this season had solid cold shots in late October and early November.  Quite a number of notable cold air masses.  Perhaps just warning shots thus far for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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On a closer note... the ECMWF has pretty much taken away the lowland snow chances for tomorrow.   The east wind returns tonight but the precip arrives in the middle of the day tomorrow which hurts the chance of snow.    Side note... the 12Z ECMWF also shows a strong SW wind breaking through tomorrow evening after that system passes and that goes through at least Saturday.   That should be a pretty hard hit to the snow cover here.     The SW wind field is broad enough this time around to reach all the way to Snoqualmie Pass.

Here is snow with the system tomorrow per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_12hr-3707200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here is the wind map for Friday morning... looks like the basin will mix out and warm up as well.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-3743200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here's a fun stat that I'm not sure has been mentioned yet: two of SEA's three snowiest Februaries have come in the past 3 years. And 2021 is only a couple inches away from moving past 1949 for the #2 spot.

Tim's hot girl summer.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Here's a fun stat that I'm not sure has been mentioned yet: two of SEA's three snowiest Februaries have come in the past 3 years. And 2021 is only a couple inches away from moving past 1949 for the #2 spot.

I think there is at least a decent chance of that happening at some point in the next 11 days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt.  I remember the Wenatchee Mountains had an unreal round of snow and cold in the September 2019 event.  Even this season had solid cold shots in late October and early November.  Quite a number of notable cold air masses.  Perhaps just warning shots thus far for us.

Wenatchee Pangborn's record low max for September was 49 before that event. On 9/28 it was broken with a high of 47, then the very next day it was broken again with a high of 43. Station active since 1960.

At the old Wenatchee station (active since 1931) the record was still tied on 9/29 (49F) then broken by 3F the next day.

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The ECMWF shows a pretty chilly pattern, but falls just short of getting really good.  The potential during week two is decent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1983 was a little more impressive. 15 in a row for DFW.

This late in the season?

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here's a fun stat that I'm not sure has been mentioned yet: two of SEA's three snowiest Februaries have come in the past 3 years. And 2021 is only a couple inches away from moving past 1949 for the #2 spot.

Incredible run for February.  In the past there were also amazing streaks for that month 1883 through 1893 and 1923 through 1937.  It's an amazingly streaky month.  The period 1963 through 1984 was an absolute disaster for February.  Eventually January has to get it's turn now that we had the run of great Decembers and now great Februaries.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cancer is a f**king b*tch. I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.

Yes it is. I'd rather chop my hand off than watch another loved one go through that shitt again. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I’ll drink to that. No more death ridges please and thank you.

Yeah except for us. Nothing but death ridges for 2 years straight now. Cities in the Santa Cruz mountains are almost guaranteed to break their record for least rainfall which was last set in 2013-2014. That was considered a once in 500 year event since it broke the 1976-1977 record by so much. Yet here we are again getting ready to crush that record. Here in Tahoe we are going to finish the meteorological winter months with 1 single storm which is pretty incredible. I hope everyone likes smoke next summer cause we will be sending it Coast to Coast again. 

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Up to 7.23" of precip on the month. Seems likely we will end up above average (9"). 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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26 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yeah except for us. Nothing but death ridges for 2 years straight now. Cities in the Santa Cruz mountains are almost guaranteed to break their record for least rainfall which was last set in 2013-2014. That was considered a once in 500 year event since it broke the 1976-1977 record by so much. Yet here we are again getting ready to crush that record. Here in Tahoe we are going to finish the meteorological winter months with 1 single storm which is pretty incredible. I hope everyone likes smoke next summer cause we will be sending it Coast to Coast again. 

It's not looking good from about here down to most of California...I hope we can have a consistently cool and wet spring instead of one brief period to lush up the flora before we go into the blast furnace.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Oh my god this is ridiculous.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That 1983 cold indicates just how crazy the mid and lower level cold dynamic can get in the south/central states.  500mb heights above 570dm with 850mb temps well below -20c...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1983/us1224.php#picture

Pretty amazing.  I lived in NE Oklahoma during their infamous 2007 ice event. I have to say, the Silverton area (And probably Oregon City, south metro, etc..), look worse than I remember from that event. 

I also remember 850mb temps were around +15C during at least part of the event. 

https://www.weather.gov/tsa/weather-event_dec10icestorm

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That 1983 cold indicates just how crazy the mid and lower level cold dynamic can get in the south/central states.  500mb heights above 570dm with 850mb temps well below -20c...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1983/us1224.php#picture

It is pretty nuts when you look at it like that.  It's also amazing that Dec 1983 was so cold here in spite of the extreme cold East of the Rockies.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty amazing.  I lived in NE Oklahoma during their infamous 2007 ice event. I have to say, the Silverton area (And probably Oregon City, south metro, etc..), look worse than I remember from that event. 

I also remember 850mb temps were around +15C during at least part of the event. 

https://www.weather.gov/tsa/weather-event_dec10icestorm

The pics out of West Linn and Lake Oswego are jaw dropping. White privileged took quite a hit last weekend. We lost a branch off one of one of our driveway maples but we’ll recover.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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