Part III: February 2021 PacNW

[Omegaraptor 2439]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably looking at a March 1867 redux. I would be okay with March 1906 though. 

What kind of monthly departures are you thinking? -7 or so?

[bainbridgekid 3940]

Does anyone know if this is an error? Surely the SSW didn't warm the arctic enough to do this!

 

[MossMan 10732]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How’s everybody planning to spend their last day of winter?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

What kind of monthly departures are you thinking? -7 or so?

If I had to set an over/under I would put it at a -1.5F departure for PDX in March. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Early over/under for Summer departures.

June -1.0

July 0.0

August +1.5

Fall

September: +1.5

October: -1.0

November: +0.5

[Phil 12058]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some woman was freaking out in the comments saying she was ready for summer. 

Does (S)he live in North Bend?

[Phil 12058]

14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Does anyone know if this is an error? Surely the SSW didn't warm the arctic enough to do this!

 

Either an error or some serious Atlantic side compaction. Don’t know which but am betting on the former.

[Phil 12058]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Early over/under for Summer departures.

June -1.0

July 0.0

August +1.5

Fall

September: +1.5

October: -1.0

November: +0.5

June -2

July -2

August 0

September +2

October -1

November +2

[TT-SEA 4170]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Does (S)he live in North Bend?

I do like summer! 

But wishing for summer at the end of February in a Nina year is a fools errand.   I don't expect much before early July.    4 months to go.  

[Phil 12058]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I do like summer! 

But wishing for summer at the end of February in a Nina year is a fools errand.   I don't expect much before early July.    4 months to go.  

Yeah looks like a late bloomer. Wouldn’t surprise me if the warmest weather occurs towards the end of August or September.

[TT-SEA 4170]

Just now, Phil said:

Yeah looks like a late bloomer. Wouldn’t surprise me if the warmest weather occurs towards the end of August or September.

I was thinking the same thing.

[Phil 12058]

Though hard to have much confidence until the Asian summer monsoon gets going. The nature of the seasonal transition can be quite revealing.

The stronger the EASM signal is under -ENSO, the more likely a cool summer is.

[seattleweatherguy 483]

34 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Does anyone know if this is an error? Surely the SSW didn't warm the arctic enough to do this!

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Early over/under for Summer departures.

June -1.0

July 0.0

August +1.5

Fall

September: +1.5

October: -1.0

November: +0.5

6-fold parlay all overs except Oct under.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

00z gets cold in the long range too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

GEM is pretty chilly next weekend. 

[TT-SEA 4170]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

00z gets cold in the long range too. 

Huge differences between the GFS and the parallel GFS in the long range again... the parallel is much warmer.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Huge differences between the GFS and the parallel GFS in the long range again... the parallel is much warmer.

We only pay attention to the parallel when it shows what we want. 

[Jesse 9232]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

6-fold parlay all overs except Oct under.

7 of the last 10 Octobers have been warmer than average. Which of course explains why we have had totally epic winters 7 out of the last ten years.

[TT-SEA 4170]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We only pay attention to the parallel when it shows what we want. 

Exactly what I am doing.  

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

7 of the last 10 Octobers have been warmer than average. Which of course explains why we have had totally epic winters 7 out of the last ten years.

You have it all wrong. A warm October is an awful sign for the coming winter. A colder than average October is a terrible sign for the coming winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

Really sad to see the GFSv16 struggling so much. 

[MossMan 10732]

Looking through my March 2019 pictures closely and it looks like I had a 31 degree temp at 1:30pm on the 6th...Impressive for March! 

[Omegaraptor 2439]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You have it all wrong. A warm October is an awful sign for the coming winter. A colder than average October is a terrible sign for the coming winter. 

Guide to December and January atmospheric patterns in the PNW, Feb 2017-date:

Ridging: torch

Troughing: torch

Blocking: torch

Strong jet: torch

[MossMan 10732]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really sad to see the GFSv16 struggling so much. 

How many millions of dollars have been spent on that garbage model?? 

[TT-SEA 4170]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really sad to see the GFSv16 struggling so much. 

I realize your post is tongue-in-cheek... but the parallel GFS actually looks quite similar to the EPS in the long range with the strong cold signal being down south.

12Z EPS on top... and 00Z parallel GFS on the bottom.

 

[TT-SEA 4170]

Also interesting the 00Z GFS has now come around to what the ECMWF was showing for later in the week.   Previous GFS runs have been wet in that period but the 00Z run is quite warm and dry from Wednesday - Friday.

[Omegaraptor 2439]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I realize your post is tongue-in-cheek... but the parallel GFS actually looks quite similar to the EPS in the long range with the cold signal being down south.

12Z EPS on top... and 00Z parallel GFS on the bottom.

 

Hopefully CA gets plenty of rain in March and April

[Phil 12058]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I realize your post is tongue-in-cheek... but the parallel GFS actually looks quite similar to the EPS in the long range with the cold signal being down south.

12Z EPS on top... and 00Z parallel GFS on the bottom.

 

Those don’t look anything alike.

The pattern over NPAC/W-Canada is totally different on the EPS.

[TT-SEA 4170]

Just now, Phil said:

Those don’t look anything alike. Pattern over NPAC is totally different on EPS.

I specifically said they look similar with the strong cold signal to the south... west of CA.     And they do.

[Phil 12058]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I specifically said they look similar with the strong cold signal to the south... west of CA.     And they do.

The legacy GFS has that as well.

[Phil 12058]

In fact the legacy GFS looks closer to the EPS than the parallel.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

March 8, 2019. 

[TT-SEA 4170]

Just now, Phil said:

The legacy GFS has that as well.

Yes... the 00Z run did pick up on that.    It definitely trended in the direction of the EPS on this run.

10-15 day mean... 12Z GFS on top and 00Z GFS on the bottom.

 

[Phil 12058]

Hard to argue the parallel GFS isn’t on an island of its own with the LR pattern evolution.

[TT-SEA 4170]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hard to argue the parallel GFS isn’t on an island of its own with the LR pattern evolution.

Definitely on its own with western Canada ridging.... now watch that be what actually happens.  

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

March 8, 2019. 

We left for Arizona on the 9th. My wife tells me about 3-4 hours before we leave that her friend who is house sitting drives like an 02' Honda Accord with 3" ground clearance. Had to shovel the driveway until it was time to leave. Also the shop roof was collapsing, so I had to get up there and shovel some snow off, which is why the ladder is in this pic. 

[Deweydog 14228]

Heads up, Tiger!

25 years ago 2nite, Eugene did quite well!

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Heads up, Tiger!

25 years ago 2nite, Eugene did quite well!

To think that would be the last accumulating snowfall here until Nov, 2003...At least there was the Dec 1998 dry blast tho. And a sub-freezing high in Dec 1999.

[BLI snowman 6871]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

To think that would be the last accumulating snowfall here until Nov, 2003...At least there was the Dec 1998 dry blast tho. And a sub-freezing high in Dec 1999.

Pretty sure Eugene had a dusting at least in February 1999 and January 2002.

[TT-SEA 4170]

Yesterday a facebook memory popped up of a snow event on the same day back in 2012.   

2/26/2012 looked very much like this morning did here... but with a little more snow.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty sure Eugene had a dusting at least in February 1999 and January 2002.

Wish there were a way to know for sure. They didn't record snow totals during that timeframe and in Nov 2003 several of the local students at UO said they hadn't seen sticking snow since middle school.

[MossMan 10732]

Raining and 38. 
.02” on the day. I was starting to get nervous that we might go a full 24hrs without moisture...Crisis averted! 

[BLI snowman 6871]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wish there were a way to know for sure. They didn't record snow totals during that timeframe and in Nov 2003 several of the local students at UO said they hadn't seen sticking snow since middle school.

People's memories are notoriously unreliable and an early morning 1/2" or 1" as would have occurred then would not exactly fire up all of the synapses.. 

[TT-SEA 4170]

The spring of 2012 was not a total loss.  Scrolling forward in my facebook memories from that snow event on 2/26/12... I saw that Easter was gorgeous that year.   We ate Easter dinner outside on my parents deck in Bellingham.   And we were on the boat by the middle of May.    

And the 4th of July was about as perfect as it can get here.  

 

[TT-SEA 4170]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

People's memories are notoriously unreliable and an early morning 1/2" or 1" as would have occurred then would not exactly fire up all of the synapses.. 

So true.    

[SilverFallsAndrew 15335]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yesterday a facebook memory popped up of a snow event on the same day back in 2012.   

2/26/2012 looked very much like this morning did here... but with a little more snow.

I don't remember 2/26/12, I'll have to look to see if we had anything here. I don't think so. We had 16.5" on 2/29-3/1/12.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5753]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

People's memories are notoriously unreliable and an early morning 1/2" or 1" as would have occurred then would not exactly fire up all of the synapses.. 

Not to mention we are a farm system for pro mets so the turnover is such that they don't recall or talk about more recent events like the ones in Seattle & Portland.

 

Seriously, if one hasn't seen our tiny market's weather forecasts, it's pretty cool because almost every person they bring in is a young, vibrant weather enthusiast. Even the shoehorned Sinclair people.

[TT-SEA 4170]

The ECMWF and GFS have completely switched positions for late in the week.   The ECMWF is much wetter and cooler for Friday than the GFS now. 

Both models show Thursday being nice though so we might get one spring-like day.

[TT-SEA 4170]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't remember 2/26/12, I'll have to look to see if we had anything here. I don't think so. We had 16.5" on 2/29-3/1/12.

Maybe it was a c-zone event like last night?

Side note... the pic was taken on 2/26/12 but I am guessing the snow event was the night before on 2/25.