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Station ordered! Got you a Acurite model 01528. I really like this station, simple and easy to read. It's been solid at my cabin. I'll pm you tracking when I get it. HAPPY BIRTHDAY when that day happe

Wow thanks guy's.  I've been very fortunate the last few years and business has been incredible.  I really enjoy helping and it really is a family on here. No other forum is like this place, I conside

I will make sure to post it when I get it set up!! Did you do to college? If so, then I will post a pic of the jersey with it if I have the jersey. Thank you so much. This brings tears to my eyes

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9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

What kind of monthly departures are you thinking? -7 or so?

If I had to set an over/under I would put it at a -1.5F departure for PDX in March. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Early over/under for Summer departures.

June -1.0

July 0.0

August +1.5

Fall

September: +1.5

October: -1.0

November: +0.5

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some woman was freaking out in the comments saying she was ready for summer. 

Does (S)he live in North Bend?

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14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Does anyone know if this is an error? Surely the SSW didn't warm the arctic enough to do this!

 

FB_IMG_1614485306714.jpg

Either an error or some serious Atlantic side compaction. Don’t know which but am betting on the former.

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Early over/under for Summer departures.

June -1.0

July 0.0

August +1.5

Fall

September: +1.5

October: -1.0

November: +0.5

June -2

July -2

August 0

September +2

October -1

November +2

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Does (S)he live in North Bend?

I do like summer! 

But wishing for summer at the end of February in a Nina year is a fools errand.   I don't expect much before early July.    4 months to go.  

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I do like summer! 

But wishing for summer at the end of February in a Nina year is a fools errand.   I don't expect much before early July.    4 months to go.  

Yeah looks like a late bloomer. Wouldn’t surprise me if the warmest weather occurs towards the end of August or September.

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Just now, Phil said:

Yeah looks like a late bloomer. Wouldn’t surprise me if the warmest weather occurs towards the end of August or September.

I was thinking the same thing.

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Though hard to have much confidence until the Asian summer monsoon gets going. The nature of the seasonal transition can be quite revealing.

The stronger the EASM signal is under -ENSO, the more likely a cool summer is.

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Early over/under for Summer departures.

June -1.0

July 0.0

August +1.5

Fall

September: +1.5

October: -1.0

November: +0.5

6-fold parlay all overs except Oct under.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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00z gets cold in the long range too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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GEM is pretty chilly next weekend. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

00z gets cold in the long range too. 

Huge differences between the GFS and the parallel GFS in the long range again... the parallel is much warmer.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Huge differences between the GFS and the parallel GFS in the long range again... the parallel is much warmer.

We only pay attention to the parallel when it shows what we want. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

6-fold parlay all overs except Oct under.

7 of the last 10 Octobers have been warmer than average. Which of course explains why we have had totally epic winters 7 out of the last ten years.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We only pay attention to the parallel when it shows what we want. 

Exactly what I am doing.  😃

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

7 of the last 10 Octobers have been warmer than average. Which of course explains why we have had totally epic winters 7 out of the last ten years.

You have it all wrong. A warm October is an awful sign for the coming winter. A colder than average October is a terrible sign for the coming winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Really sad to see the GFSv16 struggling so much.  :(

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You have it all wrong. A warm October is an awful sign for the coming winter. A colder than average October is a terrible sign for the coming winter. 

Guide to December and January atmospheric patterns in the PNW, Feb 2017-date:

Ridging: torch

Troughing: torch

Blocking: torch

Strong jet: torch

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really sad to see the GFSv16 struggling so much.  :(

I realize your post is tongue-in-cheek... but the parallel GFS actually looks quite similar to the EPS in the long range with the strong cold signal being down south.

12Z EPS on top... and 00Z parallel GFS on the bottom.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-5723200 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-para-namer-t850_anom_5day-5723200 (1).png

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Also interesting the 00Z GFS has now come around to what the ECMWF was showing for later in the week.   Previous GFS runs have been wet in that period but the 00Z run is quite warm and dry from Wednesday - Friday.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I realize your post is tongue-in-cheek... but the parallel GFS actually looks quite similar to the EPS in the long range with the cold signal being down south.

12Z EPS on top... and 00Z parallel GFS on the bottom.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-5723200 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-para-namer-t850_anom_5day-5723200 (1).png

Hopefully CA gets plenty of rain in March and April

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I realize your post is tongue-in-cheek... but the parallel GFS actually looks quite similar to the EPS in the long range with the cold signal being down south.

12Z EPS on top... and 00Z parallel GFS on the bottom.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-5723200 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-para-namer-t850_anom_5day-5723200 (1).png

Those don’t look anything alike. 😂

The pattern over NPAC/W-Canada is totally different on the EPS.

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Just now, Phil said:

Those don’t look anything alike. Pattern over NPAC is totally different on EPS.

I specifically said they look similar with the strong cold signal to the south... west of CA.     And they do.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I specifically said they look similar with the strong cold signal to the south... west of CA.     And they do.

The legacy GFS has that as well.

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March 8, 2019. 

No photo description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

The legacy GFS has that as well.

Yes... the 00Z run did pick up on that.    It definitely trended in the direction of the EPS on this run.

10-15 day mean... 12Z GFS on top and 00Z GFS on the bottom.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_5day-5766400 (2).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_5day-5766400 (1).png

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hard to argue the parallel GFS isn’t on an island of its own with the LR pattern evolution.

Definitely on its own with western Canada ridging.... now watch that be what actually happens.  😃

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

March 8, 2019. 

No photo description available.

We left for Arizona on the 9th. My wife tells me about 3-4 hours before we leave that her friend who is house sitting drives like an 02' Honda Accord with 3" ground clearance. Had to shovel the driveway until it was time to leave. Also the shop roof was collapsing, so I had to get up there and shovel some snow off, which is why the ladder is in this pic. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Heads up, Tiger!

25 years ago 2nite, Eugene did quite well!

To think that would be the last accumulating snowfall here until Nov, 2003...At least there was the Dec 1998 dry blast tho. And a sub-freezing high in Dec 1999.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

To think that would be the last accumulating snowfall here until Nov, 2003...At least there was the Dec 1998 dry blast tho. And a sub-freezing high in Dec 1999.

Pretty sure Eugene had a dusting at least in February 1999 and January 2002.

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Yesterday a facebook memory popped up of a snow event on the same day back in 2012.   

2/26/2012 looked very much like this morning did here... but with a little more snow.

399808_280729445328604_2066936241_n.jpg

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty sure Eugene had a dusting at least in February 1999 and January 2002.

Wish there were a way to know for sure. They didn't record snow totals during that timeframe and in Nov 2003 several of the local students at UO said they hadn't seen sticking snow since middle school.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wish there were a way to know for sure. They didn't record snow totals during that timeframe and in Nov 2003 several of the local students at UO said they hadn't seen sticking snow since middle school.

People's memories are notoriously unreliable and an early morning 1/2" or 1" as would have occurred then would not exactly fire up all of the synapses.. 

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The spring of 2012 was not a total loss.  Scrolling forward in my facebook memories from that snow event on 2/26/12... I saw that Easter was gorgeous that year.   We ate Easter dinner outside on my parents deck in Bellingham.   And we were on the boat by the middle of May.    

And the 4th of July was about as perfect as it can get here.  

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

People's memories are notoriously unreliable and an early morning 1/2" or 1" as would have occurred then would not exactly fire up all of the synapses.. 

So true.    

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yesterday a facebook memory popped up of a snow event on the same day back in 2012.   

2/26/2012 looked very much like this morning did here... but with a little more snow.

399808_280729445328604_2066936241_n.jpg

I don't remember 2/26/12, I'll have to look to see if we had anything here. I don't think so. We had 16.5" on 2/29-3/1/12.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

People's memories are notoriously unreliable and an early morning 1/2" or 1" as would have occurred then would not exactly fire up all of the synapses.. 

Not to mention we are a farm system for pro mets so the turnover is such that they don't recall or talk about more recent events like the ones in Seattle & Portland.

 

Seriously, if one hasn't seen our tiny market's weather forecasts, it's pretty cool because almost every person they bring in is a young, vibrant weather enthusiast. Even the shoehorned Sinclair people.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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The ECMWF and GFS have completely switched positions for late in the week.   The ECMWF is much wetter and cooler for Friday than the GFS now. 

Both models show Thursday being nice though so we might get one spring-like day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't remember 2/26/12, I'll have to look to see if we had anything here. I don't think so. We had 16.5" on 2/29-3/1/12.

Maybe it was a c-zone event like last night?

Side note... the pic was taken on 2/26/12 but I am guessing the snow event was the night before on 2/25.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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