Tom Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 The models are coming into agreement that an open wave will traverse the MW/GL's region and bring some light/mod snowfall for some of us starting on Sun out into parts of IA/MN and then points east. It's not a big system but another stat padder in the snow dept and for those out west it appears to be a daytime event on a weekend which I know some of you will enjoy. 00z Euro... 00z GFSv16... 00z GGEM... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 LOT's early take... Quote Finer scale important details will be sorted out over the next few days, but big picture wise, think that while amounts probably have an upper limit in the 2-4/3-5" range assuming p-type remains snow for most, as mentioned above, it could come down moderate to heavy at times, which would increase the impacts. Narrowing DGZ in warm advection pattern along with temperatures rising to around 32F should keep ratios closer to 10-12:1. At this vantage point, while there`s plenty of time for changes, areas along and north of I-80 appear a bit more favored for higher amounts than south, per ensemble means and probabilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 6z GFS mean looks like a nice little system for C. Iowa and points east 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 NAM coming in further north than the Euro and GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 12z RDPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 12z GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 12z Canadian (GDPS) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 Euro much weaker. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 18z RDPS. DVN also saying several inches are possible. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 Decent write up from DVN Sunday and Sunday night: Here we go again with accumulating snow! A strong upper level trough will be swinging into the Midwest out of the central Rockies providing large scale ascent. Meanwhile, forecast soundings indicate decent warm air advection in the low/mid levels and forcing/saturation in the Dendritic Growth Zone. The GFS even hints at a surface low tracking from northern MO to southern Lower MI. This would suggest at least light to moderate snow, especially in portions of eastern IA into northern IL. Confidence is growing that a widespread 2 to 4 inch snowfall will occur, possibly 3 to 5 inches in some areas. This amount of snow would put much of the cwa in a winter weather advisory criteria, but it is still too early to issue any headlines for this event. If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be needed, but low confidence in this scenario at this time. This should be a wetter type of snow compared to the past week or two as afternoon temperatures will push into the upper 20s to lower 30s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 GFS v16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: Decent write up from DVN Sunday and Sunday night: Here we go again with accumulating snow! A strong upper level trough will be swinging into the Midwest out of the central Rockies providing large scale ascent. Meanwhile, forecast soundings indicate decent warm air advection in the low/mid levels and forcing/saturation in the Dendritic Growth Zone. The GFS even hints at a surface low tracking from northern MO to southern Lower MI. This would suggest at least light to moderate snow, especially in portions of eastern IA into northern IL. Confidence is growing that a widespread 2 to 4 inch snowfall will occur, possibly 3 to 5 inches in some areas. This amount of snow would put much of the cwa in a winter weather advisory criteria, but it is still too early to issue any headlines for this event. If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be needed, but low confidence in this scenario at this time. This should be a wetter type of snow compared to the past week or two as afternoon temperatures will push into the upper 20s to lower 30s. "If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be needed" WPC seems to like the chance of that: 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 00z NAM is south a bit, but still north of other models. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 00z GFS with a 6” bullseye right over Cedar Rapids 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 hoping my storms show up early March i guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 00z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 06z Euro- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 The trend is a bit north, putting northeast Iowa in the best snow. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 Ill be in the TC this weekend. Bummer. Looks ill have an even deeper snowpack when I get home though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 The NAMs are back north again and the RDPS is north. Hopefully, the CR/IC area can still get a couple inches out of it. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 All models are significantly north on 12z. Looks like the north half of Iowa is in the best spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 GFS & GFSv16 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 3" would go a long ways up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 12z GDPS Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 12z UK Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 12z Euro... farther south than other models, has very little over nw IA into se MN. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 10 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro... Can't tell how much of that might be lake stuff prior across SWMI but models don't seem too impressive for here. Euro/GEM are best and even they would be a couple of wet inches. Was hoping for a trend to stronger. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 Looking like a solid 1-3” event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 Long-range HRRR. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 My office: --System Snow Expected Sunday Evening into Monday Morning-- The system snow on Sunday night has been well advertise by our office and by the models themselves. We are still expecting a widespread 2-4 inches of snow. The low moves off to the west of the GRR forecast area, but we see a burst of warm air advection snow during the Sunday evening time frame. The best lift and deepest DGZ occur after sunset Sunday evening persisting into the overnight hours. The warm air advection burst is not long, maybe on the order of 6 hours, but that will be enough focused lift to produce the widespread 2-4 inches of snow. The snow looks to persist into the Monday morning commute so we will be advising about that in the coming days. Given the amounts, the widespread nature of the snow and the fact that it will affect Monday morning`s commute it will likely be advisory worthy when we get to that point. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 19, 2021 Report Share Posted February 19, 2021 Weak little system, but nevertheless, means for more accumulating snows for SEMI, which will be adding to the snowpack. As for now, 2-3inches looking possible. Lets see if numbers changed by later tanite, as the system enters onshore in the Pacific NW today. For now, it remains weak, but still enough to grab those shovels out again and snowblowers as well. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 00z HRRR is north Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 00z NAM/3kNAM 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 00z RDPS 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 Northern Iowa in the sweet spot with this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 00z GFS/GFSv16 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 GFS getting me all hot and bothered like usual 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 00z GDPS Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2021 Report Share Posted February 20, 2021 00z UK... does not have the heavier band over northern Iowa. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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