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2/21 - 2/22 MW/GL's System


Tom

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The models are coming into agreement that an open wave will traverse the MW/GL's region and bring some light/mod snowfall for some of us starting on Sun out into parts of IA/MN and then points east.  It's not a big system but another stat padder in the snow dept and for those out west it appears to be a daytime event on a weekend which I know some of you will enjoy.

00z Euro...

1.png

 

00z GFSv16...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

00z GGEM...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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LOT's early take...

Quote

Finer scale important details will be sorted out over the next
few days, but big picture wise, think that while amounts probably
have an upper limit in the 2-4/3-5" range assuming p-type remains
snow for most, as mentioned above, it could come down moderate to
heavy at times, which would increase the impacts. Narrowing DGZ
in warm advection pattern along with temperatures rising to around
32F should keep ratios closer to 10-12:1. At this vantage point,
while there`s plenty of time for changes, areas along and north of
I-80 appear a bit more favored for higher amounts than south, per
ensemble means and probabilities. 

 

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Decent write up from DVN

 

Sunday and Sunday night: Here we go again with accumulating snow!
A strong upper level trough will be swinging into the Midwest out
of the central Rockies providing large scale ascent. Meanwhile,
forecast soundings indicate decent warm air advection in the
low/mid levels and forcing/saturation in the Dendritic Growth
Zone. The GFS even hints at a surface low tracking from northern
MO to southern Lower MI. This would suggest at least light to
moderate snow, especially in portions of eastern IA into northern IL.

Confidence is growing that a widespread 2 to 4 inch snowfall will
occur, possibly 3 to 5 inches in some areas. This amount of snow
would put much of the cwa in a winter weather advisory criteria,
but it is still too early to issue any headlines for this event.
If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be
needed, but low confidence in this scenario at this time. This
should be a wetter type of snow compared to the past week or two
as afternoon temperatures will push into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Decent write up from DVN

 


Sunday and Sunday night: Here we go again with accumulating snow!
A strong upper level trough will be swinging into the Midwest out
of the central Rockies providing large scale ascent. Meanwhile,
forecast soundings indicate decent warm air advection in the
low/mid levels and forcing/saturation in the Dendritic Growth
Zone. The GFS even hints at a surface low tracking from northern
MO to southern Lower MI. This would suggest at least light to
moderate snow, especially in portions of eastern IA into northern IL.

Confidence is growing that a widespread 2 to 4 inch snowfall will
occur, possibly 3 to 5 inches in some areas. This amount of snow
would put much of the cwa in a winter weather advisory criteria,
but it is still too early to issue any headlines for this event.
If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be
needed, but low confidence in this scenario at this time. This
should be a wetter type of snow compared to the past week or two
as afternoon temperatures will push into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

"If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be needed"

WPC seems to like the chance of that:

 

hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The NAMs are back north again and the RDPS is north.  Hopefully, the CR/IC area can still get a couple inches out of it.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...

5.png

 

 

Can't tell how much of that might be lake stuff prior across SWMI but models don't seem too impressive for here. Euro/GEM are best and even they would be a couple of wet inches. Was hoping for a trend to stronger.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My office:

--System Snow Expected Sunday Evening into Monday Morning--

The system snow on Sunday night has been well advertise by our
office and by the models themselves. We are still expecting a
widespread 2-4 inches of snow. The low moves off to the west of
the GRR forecast area, but we see a burst of warm air advection
snow during the Sunday evening time frame. The best lift and
deepest DGZ occur after sunset Sunday evening persisting into the
overnight hours. The warm air advection burst is not long, maybe
on the order of 6 hours, but that will be enough focused lift to
produce the widespread 2-4 inches of snow. The snow looks to
persist into the Monday morning commute so we will be advising
about that in the coming days. Given the amounts, the widespread
nature of the snow and the fact that it will affect Monday
morning`s commute it will likely be advisory worthy when we get to
that point.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Weak little system, but nevertheless, means for more accumulating snows for SEMI, which will be adding to the snowpack. As for now, 2-3inches looking possible. Lets see if numbers changed by later tanite, as the system enters onshore in the Pacific NW today. For now, it remains weak, but still enough to grab those shovels out again and snowblowers as well.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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