2/21 - 2/22 MW/GL's System

[Tom 16641]

The models are coming into agreement that an open wave will traverse the MW/GL's region and bring some light/mod snowfall for some of us starting on Sun out into parts of IA/MN and then points east.  It's not a big system but another stat padder in the snow dept and for those out west it appears to be a daytime event on a weekend which I know some of you will enjoy.

00z Euro...

 

00z GFSv16...

 

00z GGEM...

[Tom 16641]

LOT's early take...

Quote

Finer scale important details will be sorted out over the next
few days, but big picture wise, think that while amounts probably
have an upper limit in the 2-4/3-5" range assuming p-type remains
snow for most, as mentioned above, it could come down moderate to
heavy at times, which would increase the impacts. Narrowing DGZ
in warm advection pattern along with temperatures rising to around
32F should keep ratios closer to 10-12:1. At this vantage point,
while there`s plenty of time for changes, areas along and north of
I-80 appear a bit more favored for higher amounts than south, per
ensemble means and probabilities. 

 

[Clinton 4333]

6z GFS mean looks like a nice little system for C. Iowa and points east

[bud2380 3482]

NAM coming in further north than the Euro and GFS

 

[bud2380 3482]

12z RDPS

 

[bud2380 3482]

12z GFS

 

[bud2380 3482]

12z Canadian (GDPS)

 

[bud2380 3482]

Euro much weaker.

 

[bud2380 3482]

18z RDPS.  DVN also saying several inches are possible.  

 

[bud2380 3482]

Decent write up from DVN

 

Sunday and Sunday night: Here we go again with accumulating snow!
A strong upper level trough will be swinging into the Midwest out
of the central Rockies providing large scale ascent. Meanwhile,
forecast soundings indicate decent warm air advection in the
low/mid levels and forcing/saturation in the Dendritic Growth
Zone. The GFS even hints at a surface low tracking from northern
MO to southern Lower MI. This would suggest at least light to
moderate snow, especially in portions of eastern IA into northern IL.

Confidence is growing that a widespread 2 to 4 inch snowfall will
occur, possibly 3 to 5 inches in some areas. This amount of snow
would put much of the cwa in a winter weather advisory criteria,
but it is still too early to issue any headlines for this event.
If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be
needed, but low confidence in this scenario at this time. This
should be a wetter type of snow compared to the past week or two
as afternoon temperatures will push into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

[bud2380 3482]

GFS

 

[bud2380 3482]

GFS v16

 

[jaster220 8341]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Decent write up from DVN

 

Sunday and Sunday night: Here we go again with accumulating snow!
A strong upper level trough will be swinging into the Midwest out
of the central Rockies providing large scale ascent. Meanwhile,
forecast soundings indicate decent warm air advection in the
low/mid levels and forcing/saturation in the Dendritic Growth
Zone. The GFS even hints at a surface low tracking from northern
MO to southern Lower MI. This would suggest at least light to
moderate snow, especially in portions of eastern IA into northern IL.

Confidence is growing that a widespread 2 to 4 inch snowfall will
occur, possibly 3 to 5 inches in some areas. This amount of snow
would put much of the cwa in a winter weather advisory criteria,
but it is still too early to issue any headlines for this event.
If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be
needed, but low confidence in this scenario at this time. This
should be a wetter type of snow compared to the past week or two
as afternoon temperatures will push into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

"If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be needed"

WPC seems to like the chance of that:

 

[Hawkeye 4443]

00z NAM is south a bit, but still north of other models.

[bud2380 3482]

00z GFS with a 6” bullseye right over Cedar Rapids 

[Madtown 1078]

hoping my storms show up early March i guess

[Tom 16641]

00z Euro...

 

 

[Grizzcoat 3715]

06z Euro-

[Hawkeye 4443]

The trend is a bit north, putting northeast Iowa in the best snow.

[james1976 3936]

Ill be in the TC this weekend. Bummer. Looks ill have an even deeper snowpack when I get home though.

[Hawkeye 4443]

The NAMs are back north again and the RDPS is north.  Hopefully, the CR/IC area can still get a couple inches out of it.

[bud2380 3482]

All models are significantly north on 12z. Looks like the north half of Iowa is in the best spot. 

[Hawkeye 4443]

GFS & GFSv16

[Madtown 1078]

3" would go a long ways up here. 

[Hawkeye 4443]

12z GDPS

[Hawkeye 4443]

12z UK

[Hawkeye 4443]

12z Euro... farther south than other models, has very little over nw IA into se MN.

[jaster220 8341]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...

 

 

Can't tell how much of that might be lake stuff prior across SWMI but models don't seem too impressive for here. Euro/GEM are best and even they would be a couple of wet inches. Was hoping for a trend to stronger.

[East Dubzz 1312]

Looking like a solid 1-3” event. 

[Hawkeye 4443]

Long-range HRRR.

[jaster220 8341]

My office:

--System Snow Expected Sunday Evening into Monday Morning--

The system snow on Sunday night has been well advertise by our
office and by the models themselves. We are still expecting a
widespread 2-4 inches of snow. The low moves off to the west of
the GRR forecast area, but we see a burst of warm air advection
snow during the Sunday evening time frame. The best lift and
deepest DGZ occur after sunset Sunday evening persisting into the
overnight hours. The warm air advection burst is not long, maybe
on the order of 6 hours, but that will be enough focused lift to
produce the widespread 2-4 inches of snow. The snow looks to
persist into the Monday morning commute so we will be advising
about that in the coming days. Given the amounts, the widespread
nature of the snow and the fact that it will affect Monday
morning`s commute it will likely be advisory worthy when we get to
that point.

[Niko 7225]

Weak little system, but nevertheless, means for more accumulating snows for SEMI, which will be adding to the snowpack. As for now, 2-3inches looking possible. Lets see if numbers changed by later tanite, as the system enters onshore in the Pacific NW today. For now, it remains weak, but still enough to grab those shovels out again and snowblowers as well.

[Hawkeye 4443]

00z HRRR is north

[Hawkeye 4443]

00z NAM/3kNAM

[Hawkeye 4443]

00z RDPS

[bud2380 3482]

Northern Iowa in the sweet spot with this one 

[Hawkeye 4443]

00z GFS/GFSv16

[snowstorm83 1937]

GFS getting me all hot and bothered like usual 

[Hawkeye 4443]

00z GDPS

[Hawkeye 4443]

00z UK... does not have the heavier band over northern Iowa.

[GDR 667]

1-3 max event yes!!

[Hawkeye 4443]

00z Euro

[Grizzcoat 3715]

03zRAP-

[Hawkeye 4443]

The 12z HRRR has an interesting look.

[Hawkeye 4443]

12z NAM/3kNAM

[Hawkeye 4443]

12z RDPS

[Hawkeye 4443]

12z GFS/GFSv16

[bud2380 3482]

I’m expecting 1-2” down here. 

[james1976 3936]

WWA from 6am to 6pm for 2-5". Looks like I'll be driving back just after its over.

[Hawkeye 4443]

12z GDPS.... now the farthest north model.  There are still some pretty big differences among the models.