Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Recommended Posts

The models are coming into agreement that an open wave will traverse the MW/GL's region and bring some light/mod snowfall for some of us starting on Sun out into parts of IA/MN and then points east.  It's not a big system but another stat padder in the snow dept and for those out west it appears to be a daytime event on a weekend which I know some of you will enjoy.

00z Euro...

1.png

 

00z GFSv16...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

00z GGEM...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom pinned this topic
  • Replies 154
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Not my picture but it shows how wet and sticky the snow is. Beautiful!!

Someone in Jim Flowers' Facebook comments, who lives in Moorhead, IA (north of Omaha) is reporting 9".  Wow!  Gotta love the big, surprise over-performers.

Warnings issued for C.IA also!!!

Posted Images

LOT's early take...

Quote

Finer scale important details will be sorted out over the next
few days, but big picture wise, think that while amounts probably
have an upper limit in the 2-4/3-5" range assuming p-type remains
snow for most, as mentioned above, it could come down moderate to
heavy at times, which would increase the impacts. Narrowing DGZ
in warm advection pattern along with temperatures rising to around
32F should keep ratios closer to 10-12:1. At this vantage point,
while there`s plenty of time for changes, areas along and north of
I-80 appear a bit more favored for higher amounts than south, per
ensemble means and probabilities. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Decent write up from DVN

 

Sunday and Sunday night: Here we go again with accumulating snow!
A strong upper level trough will be swinging into the Midwest out
of the central Rockies providing large scale ascent. Meanwhile,
forecast soundings indicate decent warm air advection in the
low/mid levels and forcing/saturation in the Dendritic Growth
Zone. The GFS even hints at a surface low tracking from northern
MO to southern Lower MI. This would suggest at least light to
moderate snow, especially in portions of eastern IA into northern IL.

Confidence is growing that a widespread 2 to 4 inch snowfall will
occur, possibly 3 to 5 inches in some areas. This amount of snow
would put much of the cwa in a winter weather advisory criteria,
but it is still too early to issue any headlines for this event.
If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be
needed, but low confidence in this scenario at this time. This
should be a wetter type of snow compared to the past week or two
as afternoon temperatures will push into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
  • Like 1

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Decent write up from DVN

 


Sunday and Sunday night: Here we go again with accumulating snow!
A strong upper level trough will be swinging into the Midwest out
of the central Rockies providing large scale ascent. Meanwhile,
forecast soundings indicate decent warm air advection in the
low/mid levels and forcing/saturation in the Dendritic Growth
Zone. The GFS even hints at a surface low tracking from northern
MO to southern Lower MI. This would suggest at least light to
moderate snow, especially in portions of eastern IA into northern IL.

Confidence is growing that a widespread 2 to 4 inch snowfall will
occur, possibly 3 to 5 inches in some areas. This amount of snow
would put much of the cwa in a winter weather advisory criteria,
but it is still too early to issue any headlines for this event.
If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be
needed, but low confidence in this scenario at this time. This
should be a wetter type of snow compared to the past week or two
as afternoon temperatures will push into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

"If the system comes in stronger then a winter storm watch may be needed"

WPC seems to like the chance of that:

 

hazards_d3_7_contours.png

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z NAM is south a bit, but still north of other models.

snku_024h.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

The trend is a bit north, putting northeast Iowa in the best snow.

  • Sad 1

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAMs are back north again and the RDPS is north.  Hopefully, the CR/IC area can still get a couple inches out of it.

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS & GFSv16

snku_024h.us_mw.png

snku_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z GDPS

snku_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z UK

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Euro... farther south than other models, has very little over nw IA into se MN.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...

5.png

 

 

Can't tell how much of that might be lake stuff prior across SWMI but models don't seem too impressive for here. Euro/GEM are best and even they would be a couple of wet inches. Was hoping for a trend to stronger.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Long-range HRRR.

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_48.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

My office:

--System Snow Expected Sunday Evening into Monday Morning--

The system snow on Sunday night has been well advertise by our
office and by the models themselves. We are still expecting a
widespread 2-4 inches of snow. The low moves off to the west of
the GRR forecast area, but we see a burst of warm air advection
snow during the Sunday evening time frame. The best lift and
deepest DGZ occur after sunset Sunday evening persisting into the
overnight hours. The warm air advection burst is not long, maybe
on the order of 6 hours, but that will be enough focused lift to
produce the widespread 2-4 inches of snow. The snow looks to
persist into the Monday morning commute so we will be advising
about that in the coming days. Given the amounts, the widespread
nature of the snow and the fact that it will affect Monday
morning`s commute it will likely be advisory worthy when we get to
that point.
  • Like 3

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Weak little system, but nevertheless, means for more accumulating snows for SEMI, which will be adding to the snowpack. As for now, 2-3inches looking possible. Lets see if numbers changed by later tanite, as the system enters onshore in the Pacific NW today. For now, it remains weak, but still enough to grab those shovels out again and snowblowers as well.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z HRRR is north

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z NAM/3kNAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z RDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z GFS/GFSv16

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z GDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z UK... does not have the heavier band over northern Iowa.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

00z Euro

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z HRRR has an interesting look.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z NAM/3kNAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z RDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z GFS/GFSv16

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z GDPS.... now the farthest north model.  There are still some pretty big differences among the models.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...