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ENSO 2021-22


OKwx2k4
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Don't have an ENSO thread and thought I'd kick one off. However I'll admit, I haven't done my research much this year as I have in years past. Hoping this one (the thread+current snow on the ground) will motivate me a bit. Also, finally seeing what appears to be an overall (and long awaited) N. Hem climate-scale shift. If not both hemispheres or globally. Just thought it'd be nice to start following.

Currently....

 

ssta.daily.current.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Don't have an ENSO thread and thought I'd kick one off. However I'll admit, I haven't done my research much this year as I have in years past. Hoping this one (the thread+current snow on the ground) will motivate me a bit. Also, finally seeing what appears to be an overall (and long awaited) N. Hem climate-scale shift. If not both hemispheres or globally. Just thought it'd be nice to start following.

Currently....

 

ssta.daily.current.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Glad you did start a thread in regards to ENSO.  It'll be a big year and a big test to see what nature has in store for the PAC ocean and global temps.  I've been watching these trends over the past few weeks and I'm leaning towards a moderate Nina, similar in strength to what we just experienced.  Some moderation this summer but then I think the PAC reloads the cooling as we head deeper into next Autumn/Winter.

Feb IRI/CPC Forecast...

 

 

figure4.png

 

 

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3 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

So what's this mean? There's more hope of having a good winter again in 21/22, right? Was this winter just an outlier or was it a shift towards actually having winters again?

I think time will obviously be the thing to tell us, in the long run, but my thoughts say that it's the long awaited shift towards good solid cold winters in the interior US. I've been waiting on the changes for 5 years. Climate moves slow, but the pattern and pendulum is there.

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  • 1 month later...

Most balanced you'll probably ever see our global SST profile. Cold PDO ring really making its presence felt. Debatable whether we'll see another cycle of cooling on the Atlantic equatorial region, but I'm leaning there. Can see the warm spot in the Atlantic for the detached/se shifted SER. Nothing really alarming or extreme at this juncture. Would put smart money on cold enso to neutral at best going forward for awhile. 

PAC says climate shift is complete in my opinion. May take a few years for it to formally be called such, but I call it that.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

It's rather interesting to see how much the Global temps have tanked since the double peak.  I'm really curious to see where we go over the next few years.  Oceans at play??  

 

1.jpg

If I were applying guesses, I'd say we easily see us drop to -0.2°c if not as far as -.35°c or -.4°c.

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We had a very chilly Spring in North Texas.   

Just sayin'.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 5/9/2021 at 10:43 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

We're a spot or 3 behind 2013's pace of blobbery, but the similarities are all in place. Heat content in the NE pac is pretty low now, but I'm watching it....

 

 

Screenshot_20210509-224433_Brave.jpg

 

You got something cooking here buddy....the last run off the JMA weeklies is showing that blob strengthening...CFSv2 keeps it parked there next month and throughout the Summer.  I like the look of the colder waters hugging the W/SW coast of USA.  Re-emerging La Nina next Autumn??

 

Y202105.D2612_gls.png

 

1.gif

 

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Re-emerging la Nina is a great call, imo. Everything else literally just fell into place as I said it, so if it works, awesome. Lol. 

Looking like a short summer down here with a blazing one up the west coast. I like that. I remember what this pattern translates to down the road.

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Quick update on the current status of the subsurface water temp anomalies across the PAC ocean....what has been a very warm looking body of water has trended a lot colder.  Iirc, this pooling of colder waters in the western PAC coincidentally started in the same region last year at about the same time which then brought about the La Nina last year.  It's interesting to me to see this brewing up again for what should end up becoming a "double dip La Nina"...

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

 

The CFSv2 showing a strong signal for weeks now that by next Autumn we'll be back in a Nina...

1.gif

2.gif

 

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I’m going to need to buy heated longjohns if this coming winter repeats last winters. 

37* in my house was not acceptable!!  
I’m looking into my gas fireplace being adapted to a no electric start.  Can’t go to wood burning but I can remove the electric start method.  They won’t have the Texas grid fixed by then.  
Heck, they can’t fix the border chaos!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 8/5/2021 at 7:50 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Most sudden flip in enso I have ever witnessed.

Going to be the fastest and hardest fall into winter we have ever had in our lifetime. I think I'm 100 percent on that.

Massive cool pool exploding over the equatorial PAC...the last few frames are noteworthy...yet again, the CFSv2 was right all along months in advance that a 2nd year La Nina is coming for Autumn/Winter.  Let the games begin.

1.gif

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On 9/27/2021 at 7:27 PM, Andie said:

Get ready.  Should be a real winter.  

That's what the government and lamestream media want you to think.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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We haven't used this thread in a long time but I suspect we will be seeing more posts and comments regarding the unusual 3-peat La Nina that is undoubtedly going to happen this year.  The question will be....how strong and how long???  Boy, what is happening in the deepest parts of the PAC ocean is rather interesting.  The waters are showing substantial cooling in recent weeks and it sure does show signs of growing and expanding.  Nearly every single climate model is suggesting the La Nina to grow basin-wide and will more than ever contribute to our global wx pattern in the months ahead.  I'm esp interested to see how this transpires for our Summer season.

Screen Shot 2022-03-28 at 6.07.53 AM.png

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Nearly every single climate model is suggesting the La Nina to grow basin-wide and will more than ever contribute to our global wx pattern in the months ahead.  I'm esp interested to see how this transpires for our Summer season.

If I get a chance I will have to see if I can find any information on La Nina effects on the summer in North America. If there is a 3 peat It would be the first one since 1973/74, 74/75, 75/76. And that is the only one of record going back to 1950. So I guess one would have to look at the summer of 1975 and then the winter of 1975/76  

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41 minutes ago, westMJim said:

If I get a chance I will have to see if I can find any information on La Nina effects on the summer in North America. If there is a 3 peat It would be the first one since 1973/74, 74/75, 75/76. And that is the only one of record going back to 1950. So I guess one would have to look at the summer of 1975 and then the winter of 1975/76  

Thanks for digging this up…we may be on the precipice of a new era.  Let’s see how this evolves.

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On 3/28/2022 at 8:52 AM, westMJim said:

If I get a chance I will have to see if I can find any information on La Nina effects on the summer in North America. If there is a 3 peat It would be the first one since 1973/74, 74/75, 75/76. And that is the only one of record going back to 1950. So I guess one would have to look at the summer of 1975 and then the winter of 1975/76  

 

On 3/28/2022 at 9:35 AM, Tom said:

Thanks for digging this up…we may be on the precipice of a new era.  Let’s see how this evolves.

I remember the summer of '75 as nice and warm (aka boat/beach/pool friendly) wx. Did a lot swimming. Gun deer season in mid-Nov I was in NWMI where it was exceptionally mild and sunny. At least 60F if not more. Winter '75-76 was very snowy for my native region in mid-SEMI and known around the GL's as quite a memorable LES season for those in the belts. My 2 cents per my memory..

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 3/28/2022 at 6:10 AM, Tom said:

We haven't used this thread in a long time but I suspect we will be seeing more posts and comments regarding the unusual 3-peat La Nina that is undoubtedly going to happen this year.  The question will be....how strong and how long???  Boy, what is happening in the deepest parts of the PAC ocean is rather interesting.  The waters are showing substantial cooling in recent weeks and it sure does show signs of growing and expanding.  Nearly every single climate model is suggesting the La Nina to grow basin-wide and will more than ever contribute to our global wx pattern in the months ahead.  I'm esp interested to see how this transpires for our Summer season.

Screen Shot 2022-03-28 at 6.07.53 AM.png

 

Yeah, that Niño hope really crashed in weeks. So crazy.

I'm wondering if I don't experience a July this summer that's "polar" opposite of my December 2021.

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Another dry drought ridden winter. 🤬

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 3/28/2022 at 7:10 AM, Tom said:

We haven't used this thread in a long time but I suspect we will be seeing more posts and comments regarding the unusual 3-peat La Nina that is undoubtedly going to happen this year.  The question will be....how strong and how long???  Boy, what is happening in the deepest parts of the PAC ocean is rather interesting.  The waters are showing substantial cooling in recent weeks and it sure does show signs of growing and expanding.  Nearly every single climate model is suggesting the La Nina to grow basin-wide and will more than ever contribute to our global wx pattern in the months ahead.  I'm esp interested to see how this transpires for our Summer season.

Screen Shot 2022-03-28 at 6.07.53 AM.png

 

You need to go on Facebook and Twitter and tell Larry Cosgrove about this as he has been talking about how the La nina is breaking down and he sees weak El Nino by the fall.Im a  Larry Cosgrove fan but I just don't know what he is seeing base on most data right now.

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On 4/4/2022 at 1:53 PM, Thunder98 said:

I hate La Niñas so much! 😡

Oddly, they have a strong history of treating my native region of SMI (basically 2 counties north) very well. While this won't be a Top-5 finish like 17-18 was, that same area is one of the Non-LES Belt regions that has seen the most snow this winter. Nino's normally spell the opposite.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 3/29/2022 at 4:50 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah, that Niño hope really crashed in weeks. So crazy.

I'm wondering if I don't experience a July this summer that's "polar" opposite of my December 2021.

Larry Cosgrove is still convince a west basen Weak El nino end of summer someone asked him if he was still thinking El nino on his Facebook page.so it will be interesting  to see if he ends up right sure is interesting he going against the grain.

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I don't doubt the ultimate progression here is to weak CP style, but man, this thing just keeps cranking along. May be another year or may be ultimately a non-Niño warm phase fluttering on the .5 bar. My opinion.

Stuff is changing a lot globally right now. Very interesting.

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3 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I don't doubt the ultimate progression here is to weak CP style, but man, this thing just keeps cranking along. May be another year or may be ultimately a non-Niño warm phase fluttering on the .5 bar. My opinion.

Stuff is changing a lot globally right now. Very interesting.

Edit/add...

The subsurface pentads are west/CP Niño all the way. Historically, when theres no cold pool anywhere in the PAC, the cold pools over the US.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Dang, these are some rather chilly waters hugging the western shores of S.A...besides the ever-lasting La Nina, the very warm waters building N of Hawaii has my attn...

Y202205.D1812_gls.png

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That would be nice for us.  
The last good one brought us plenty of rain and some snow.  We’re due.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 6/19/2022 at 1:01 PM, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove has been beating the warm neutral weak El nino drum for fall winter for months it seems interesting considering the cold enso waters 

 

BOOOOOOOOO !!!!!!!!

This really stinks!

100-101 today. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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