Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Scott26]

UKIE

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

Change from it's 12z run and keeping the northern stream much farther north

The Northern stream definitely needs to be further south for this to phase earlier. It will be something to watch in the coming days.

[Money]

GGEM has the low in the east coast with pretty much nothing besides a strong clipper for the MW

 

However, that 2nd storm does this:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[Geos]

You guys may think I'm crazy lol, but I don't care if I even get any accumulating snow out of this thing. From a Meteorological standpoint how often do you see a 965 mb low in December or ever for that matter in the US? The wind field with this thing being modeled is just amazing and how it all seems to be coming together is beautiful imo. Snow would just be a small added bonus for me. A lot can change, but I'm very excited.

 

That point right there got me thinking about what's on the models. I would be very surprised if we saw a system that strong. 

Reality- models are probably over doing it at this point. If anything I think we could see this system trek south and probably no lower than 980 mb or so.

[Money]

Just because:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014121800/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_23.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014121800/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014121800/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_25.png

[Money]

GEFS is way to the west of the OP

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014121800/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_28.png

 

983 ensemble mean is impressive considering it's 6 days out yet.

[winterfreak]

Yeah northern stream dominant like the GFS. Interesting to track nonetheless. Holding out hope for the post Christmas storm.

[Money]

GFS Ensembles:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f156.gif

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f162.gif

[james1976]

How was Euro?

[GDR]

I heard it was a bowling ball!

[GDR]

Looks like a decent hit for for wisconson but not much for iowa or Illinois.

[gosaints]

6z GFS is pretty impressive with the clipper.  Two fold problem now on the table. Northern stream doesnt dig and southern stream moves to quickly.  Could easily change back of course.  Also need that first system to get out of here if we want he second one to develop.

[Yerf]

From NWS

 

MODELS...THEY HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP.
FOUR CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN 975MB OR DEEPER
LOWS BY 12Z ON CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/NORTHEAST U.S. REGION

[Tony]

At this point the worst case scenario is that we get mood setting snow showers for Christmas which will be fine with me. If this storm does not bomb out then it will leave the door open for storm #2 to be a strong lakes cutter. 

[gosaints]

In reality most of this forum would probably be better of if the 1st storm became a coastal and gets kicked out to sea.  

[Tom]

00z Euro...

[Money]

N. stream digging farther south and stronger through hr 75.

[Money]

HR 87 has a 1002 L or so in SE SD. Way farther south than 0z/6z. Let's see where this goes. 

[bud2380]

GFS has the SLP centered directly over the Mississippi River on the WI & MN border. 

[bud2380]

Overall so far it is showing mostly rain in Iowa, but looks like a transition to snow showers late Monday.  Accumulations would appear to be light. 

[Money]

996 over my area and a 1004 L down in OK developing. 

[bud2380]

996 over my area and a 1004 L down in OK developing. 

 

Where do you live Money?

[Money]

Eastern WI.

 

HR 126: 996 L in E. IN an 996 over N. WI 

[Snowshoe]

Considering this storm and the holidays my work productivity is going to be near an all time low!

[Money]

Starts to phase in MI.

 

992 over Detroit at HR 135

[Tom]

12z GFS took a sep in right direction...trying to swing back deeper precip into cold sector.  Not so much yet, but hopefully a trend.

[gosaints]

LOL now the parallel GFS is going way north with the northern stream.  Very concused models

[Money]

GFS Parallel HR 132

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_23.png

[bud2380]

I don't think this is going to be a widespread large snow producer.  It looks like some widespread light snow showers and flurries, but most of the main activity is in the far northern parts of MN, WI, and MI and into Canada.  Doesn't look like a typical winter storm. 

[Money]

Parallel is going to be a big storm pressure wise

 

down to 990 at HR in C. KY at 138

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_24.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_26.png

[indianajohn]

  Well Skilling feeling confident that there will be no big snowstorm!!http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/12/featuregraphic121814-1024x634.jpgent for no big snow storm next week!!!

[Tony]

Unfortunately this storm is a waste. It will pack a punch wind wise but precip will be non-existent for most of us except for rain/snow showers. On to the next storm.

[Money]

Unfortunately this storm is a waste. It will pack a punch wind wise but precip will be non-existent for most of us except for rain/snow showers. On to the next storm.

 

Next storm tries to go big but it gets squashed because of the phasing storm in Canada. Worst case all around. Either need it to go off to the east coast which will allow the next one to cut to the lakes or have this one bomb out. Can't have in-between

[Money]

Parallel GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

[Money]

GGEM:

 

HR 120:

 

 

 

 

 

HR 144

 

[gosaints]

lol oh those canadians and their weather models

[Tom]

There are just too many moving parts with this storm to get it to become a widespread snow producer.  If the southern piece could somehow become the main player then we would be seeing a nice neg tilt snow storm that we all dream of.

[bud2380]

The strongest precip actually comes from the clipper on Sunday night into Monday, but it drops about a quarter to half inch of rain and rain/snow mix in Iowa.  Too bad there wasn't a bit more cold air to work with and keep that all snow. 

[Money]

UKIE

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Snowshoe]

Which is plausible. Need to wait for some sampling of the two streams.

 

There are just too many moving parts with this storm to get it to become a widespread snow producer.  If the southern piece could somehow become the main player then we would be seeing a nice neg tilt snow storm that we all dream of.