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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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10 to 20 inches of base left on my ski hill, lots of warm weather. This week will probably be the last given the temps, and the week after looking wet. Late start, early end for this year, I legit lost more than a month of my snowboard season this year compared to the previous year. Which is pretty substantial considering season is generally from mid November to mid March, with an entire month in the middle lost to big Christmas break crowds and college break.

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Beautiful weather this week!

Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south after midnight.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 56. Southwest wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 56. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 60.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 59.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
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-13 here this morning with an old crusty and dirty melt/freeze cycled snowpack.  If it was still a winter like snowpack or fresh snow, I would expect it could have gotten to at least -20.

I figure from past history, that I have a 50/50 shot each March to record a -20 reading, of course that is almost always during the first half of march.  Looking over the next couple weeks it doesn't look likely to happen this year having missed it this morning.  

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island....LR GEFS suggesting a good possibility for late season Spring snows heading your way this month as the signal for a parade of storms coming off the PAC could very well eat away at your snowfall departures.

 

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Looking at the remaining few inches of crusty snow I have left, and a week full of highs in the 40s upcoming.  I would rather tell nature to bank any potential snow for the rest of this season until next December.  However, if it does have to snow, it better be significant.  Nothing worse in my mind than 6" March snows on bare ground that melts in a few days only for another 6" that melts quickly followed by another 6" that melts quickly, etc.    

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Grass is beginning to show here in spots.... pavement edge, open areas, the path I dug through my backyard.  The grass is still a bit green because we had no real cold before the snow began to pile up.  When we finally got some harsh cold, deep snow protected the grass.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS has some really nice weather in store for early March.  Starting on Saturday running through Wednesday, widespread highs well into the 50s for many and 60s for parts of NE early in the period before widespread 60s hit further east by mid-week.  Fingers crossed.  

 

sfctmax_024h.us_mw.png

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9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS has some really nice weather in store for early March.  Starting on Saturday running through Wednesday, widespread highs well into the 50s for many and 60s for parts of NE early in the period before widespread 60s hit further east by mid-week.  Fingers crossed.  

 

sfctmax_024h.us_mw.png

If this pattern pans out, I would expect temps to be even a few degrees warmer than this as well.  Especially now that our snowpack as been eradicated and will be completely gone by the time this rolls around.  

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It's pretty cold today with a temp in the low 30s and a good breeze.  Thankfully, it's the last cold day for a while.

My snow depth is down to 7-8".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro 10-day forecast for Cedar Rapids 🌷😀

29 42 41 47 52 50 52 57 60 62
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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Grass is beginning to show here in spots.... pavement edge, open areas, the path I dug through my backyard.  The grass is still a bit green because we had no real cold before the snow began to pile up.  When we finally got some harsh cold, deep snow protected the grass.

I saw a post somewhere that our frost depth only got down to 5-6" I believe bc of that same reason. Wasn't cold and then it snowed, got really cold, and that insulated the ground. Should be a quick green up. We're mostly snowless here now

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I saw a post somewhere that our frost depth only got down to 5-6" I believe bc of that same reason. Wasn't cold and then it snowed, got really cold, and that insulated the ground. Should be a quick green up. We're mostly snowless here now

DVN stated the frost depth was just 2" here due to the snow blanket.  

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I've noticed that the grass looks pretty green here as well. That's pretty neat, I didn't snow cover provided an insulation like that. Even in the mildest winters in Memphis, I never saw green grass this time of year. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I think the green in grass revealed immediately after snowmelt is left over chlorophyll in the grass preserved by below freezing temps and snow cover. The grass is dormant still until the soil warms up. If the snow melts but soil temps keep cold enough to keep the grass dormant, the residual chlorophyll eventually breaks down and the grass turns brown just like leaves change in the autumn.

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Lots of bare spots began showing yesterday, but today it didn’t melt much. The next few days will make it look much different. A few tulips are poking through on the sunny south side. 
 

I’m afraid we could have a swarm of Japanese beetles this summer since the soil didn’t freeze deeply with thick snow cover. It’s nice to have snow to insulate things, but another downside is the rabbits 🐇 do a lot more damage to shrubs etc when grass isn’t readily accessible.

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20 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I’m afraid we could have a swarm of Japanese beetles this summer since the soil didn’t freeze deeply with thick snow cover.

The grass here late last summer was very dry and brown.  I'm hoping that hurt the beetle larvae.  The severe drought in 2012 eliminated beetles for a few years.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The grass here late last summer was very dry and brown.  I'm hoping that hurt the beetle larvae.  The severe drought in 2012 eliminated beetles for a few years.

I hope so!  I didn’t realize that, and maybe hard dry soil makes it more difficult for the larvae to burrow into the ground too? Around here we never saw many beetles till maybe around 7 (?) years ago when they showed up en masse,  then we had them ever since, more or less. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

I think the green in grass revealed immediately after snowmelt is left over chlorophyll in the grass preserved by below freezing temps and snow cover. The grass is dormant still until the soil warms up. If the snow melts but soil temps keep cold enough to keep the grass dormant, the residual chlorophyll eventually breaks down and the grass turns brown just like leaves change in the autumn.

I think grass around here would stay green if it would warm up and never be exposed to much below freezing temperatures, but that likely won’t happen. (The grass was mostly brown here before it snowed.)  I noticed the  4” soil temp map in much of Iowa remained at or above freezing most of the winter, and the snow melt water has already soaked into the soil in front of the house where it usually sets for awhile longer. This lessons flood potential 😊. Still some runoff though, mostly because of wet topsoils?

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The current temperature here at my house is 12.4 I wonder it this will be the last very cold morning this season.  Here are some official readings for Grand Rapids for this past meteorological winter. The average H/L at GRR was 33.3/21.0.  The 30 year average is 33.1/20.5 The 3 month mean was 27.1 and the current 30 year mean is 26.8. So over all the winter of 2020/21 was a little warmer than the current 30 year average. Now in the snow fall department that was a different story as just 45.4” fell and that is -12.1” and for the season just 45.8” have fallen so far and that is -19.0”  For the season there were 0 thunderstorm days. 1 day with heavy rain, 17 with light rain, 51 days with light snow 3 days with heavy snow. The there was 27% pf possible sunshine with 7 clear days, 17 partly cloudy days and 66 cloudy days.

 

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"Mid March Madness"...the pattern is to ramp up and turn very active post 10th and there is a decent signal among the EPS/GEFS members that some late season snows are on the table.  I believe the pattern is ripe for nature to spin up a powerhouse storm by mid month if things line up just right from the Plains up into the Northwoods.  There is going to be a lot of late season cold lurking across the U.S./Canadian border and early Spring warmth will likely provide the fuel to produce a juicy system right around the 15th or so.

00z EPS...

1.png

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Should be mostly sunny and seasonable the first week of March.  Low to mid 40's.  Then well up into the 50's for the first half of next week.  Even if it's just a taste of Spring before more seasonable March temps come back again, what a difference it will make!.  March looks on track to be near or slightly above normal for SMI. (More if nights stay warmer, unlikely with clear skies though)  A welcome change.   

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It's 46º here in town, but we've only lost 1" today because we started out cold and didn't get into the 30s until afternoon.  There is a lot of bare ground along the interstate through the city.  A golf course I drove by has only 1-2" left, with some bare spots.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

"Mid March Madness"...the pattern is to ramp up and turn very active post 10th and there is a decent signal among the EPS/GEFS members that some late season snows are on the table.  I believe the pattern is ripe for nature to spin up a powerhouse storm by mid month if things line up just right from the Plains up into the Northwoods.  There is going to be a lot of late season cold lurking across the U.S./Canadian border and early Spring warmth will likely provide the fuel to produce a juicy system right around the 15th or so.

00z EPS...

1.png

2.png

 

 

 

I'am 100% in on this. Maybe not in iA, but dakotas' /  N.MN is going to get clobbered. PP at Accu-Wx is all over it as well. Been watching the AO and NAO like a hawk since early FEB and yes, the AO is going to be go about as + as it went - , but forecasts show it going - again , probably not to Mid-FEB levels but this time it looks like the NAO wants to go - also. Fun times ahead - even if it's not in your own backyard.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Today March 3rd is the earliest day of the year that it ever officially reached 70 or better. As stated above it reached 72 on this date in 1983 and it also reached 71 in 1974. The next March day with a record high of 70 or better is not until March 7th. Also of note it that as of today Grand Rapids has not had a thunder event yet. To bring you up to date any day that has a recorded lightning strike is considered a thunderstorm event. 
At this time it is clear here at my house and I have a temperature of 32 the overnight low was 31. I reported a trace of snow on the ground but there is between bare ground to around 5" in the yard and of course there are still a lot of big snow piles all around. But this is very typical for early March. On this date the snow depth at Grand Rapids has ranged from none in many years all the way up to 19" in 2014. And the high has ranged from that 72 in 1973 to 12 in 1943 and in 2014 the high was just 15. and the low has ranged from -9 in 1942 (it was -8 in 2014) to the warmest low of 40 in 1964 and 1974

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

GFS ensembles are saying Winter is not over.  Mid month big dogs looking interesting.  Here is the Mean from the 12th-15th

1615831200-BeeLSjU0vAc.png

Oh wow that was a big rainer a few days ago. I hope this turns out, it means at least an extra week of snowboarding.

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The snow-free region of southern/southwestern Iowa continues to easily soar into the 50s while the deep snow pack area east-central Iowa is stuck in the low 40s.

446224329_COD-GOES-East-local-Iowa_02.20210303.173113-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.641e2c3b23efe9c0cb8aeca3dfc8361a.gif

iowa_tmpf.thumb.png.92f702c75b82311f0b28bfd90797a05a.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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47 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Holy blizzard by the 12z GFS. Winter might make a come back in 7-10 days. Long ways out but something is brewing in the long range; it fits the LRC also as Gary Lezak talked about it in his blog this morning. 

snku_acc.conus.png

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-ingredients-for-severe-thunderstorms

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The snow-free region of southern/southwestern Iowa continues to easily soar into the 50s while the deep snow pack area east-central Iowa is stuck in the low 40s.

446224329_COD-GOES-East-local-Iowa_02.20210303.173113-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.641e2c3b23efe9c0cb8aeca3dfc8361a.gif

iowa_tmpf.thumb.png.92f702c75b82311f0b28bfd90797a05a.png

Eastern IA seems to be the ideal place if you want to hold on to snow cover forever lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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