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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Somehow, the Cedar Rapids airport actually fell by one degree from noon to 1pm... now sitting at 41º.  Here in the city it's near 50º.

Satellite shows the city as a big dark spot because of all the snow melt.  Meanwhile, the airport is still in the middle of a bright white area in between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City where there is still good snow cover.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Somehow, the Cedar Rapids airport actually fell by one degree from noon to 1pm... now sitting at 41º.  Here in the city it's near 50º.

Satellite shows the city as a big dark spot because of all the snow melt.  Meanwhile, the airport is still in the middle of a bright white area in between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City where there is still good snow cover.

I had to go downtown on my lunch break and it was 52 degrees over off H Ave and 380.  I got back to work which is just down from the airport and my car said 42.  

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30 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Once again, this is the time of year that I'm so jealous of Nebraska weather.  It's always so much warmer than in eastern Iowa.  

Our snow cover is essentially gone.  Big piles and snow on north side of houses still remains.  Should all be gone by this weekend, except the biggest of snow piles.

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On 3/2/2021 at 10:55 AM, Stacsh said:

Should be mostly sunny and seasonable the first week of March.  Low to mid 40's.  Then well up into the 50's for the first half of next week.  Even if it's just a taste of Spring before more seasonable March temps come back again, what a difference it will make!.  March looks on track to be near or slightly above normal for SMI. (More if nights stay warmer, unlikely with clear skies though)  A welcome change.   

Hasn't been a truly cold March since 2014 and before that Maybe 2009? Can almost bank on a "non-wintry" month any more. 1982 was true winter

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Does anyone know what happened to Jim Flowers' facebook? I was curious what he thought about the upcoming pattern in Mid-March and went to Facebook and there is nothing there anymore. Seems a little odd.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

Does anyone know what happened to Jim Flowers' facebook? I was curious what he thought about the upcoming pattern in Mid-March and went to Facebook and there is nothing there anymore. Seems a little odd.

He took it down. Will be back next winter or potentially if a storm would develop in the next month. 

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The storm that hit So Cal yesterday tracked just enough far north that it missed the valley but hit the mountains with some meager amounts of snowfall (1-4").  Any moisture is good moisture in my book.  The cool down in the 60's won't last because a nice ridge quickly pushes in and temps shoot up into the mid 80's Thu-Sun.  The benefits of coming out here in the Spring time is the instantaneous transition into summer like weather.  March weather can be volatile, however, and I'm anticipating some storms later next week to hopefully deliver moisture into the valley.

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14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hasn't been a truly cold March since 2014 and before that Maybe 2009? Can almost bank on a "non-wintry" month any more. 1982 was true winter

Cold is one thing, but average is still dreary and annoying.  Looking forward to a more active up and down pattern.  I'll take a 60 if it means a day of snow and then  back to 40's and 50's after.  Looks like we might get a cold rain/snow storm mid-month after a surge of warmth.  But then bounce back after.  

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Yesterdays official high of 50 at Grand Rapids is the warmest it has gotten this year so far.  This is much later then the average first 50° day witch is February 8th The earliest is January 1st in 2011 and the latest is April 4th 1912. In the last 30 years the average first 50° day is January 26 with a range of that January 1 in 2011 to the latest of March 15 in 2003.  At this time it is partly cloudy here and 29. There is still a reportable trace of snow on the ground here along with a good amount of snow piles.

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11 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Does anyone know what happened to Jim Flowers' facebook? I was curious what he thought about the upcoming pattern in Mid-March and went to Facebook and there is nothing there anymore. Seems a little odd.

As stated he took it down. He takes it down at end of every winter season. Likes to focus on winter storms and then fish the rest of the season 🤣

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The midweek system is kinda turning to crap for Iowa.  Instead of a strong, wound-up system, at least the GFS, GFSv16, and GDPS have trended toward a weak system with just some showers along a cold front, then the action behind it gets suppressed.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Once again, sw Iowa is another world compared to east-central Iowa.  SW Iowa has already soared into the 60s again this morning while we are still in the 30s... about ten degrees behind yesterday's rise.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Cold is one thing, but average is still dreary and annoying.  Looking forward to a more active up and down pattern.  I'll take a 60 if it means a day of snow and then  back to 40's and 50's after.  Looks like we might get a cold rain/snow storm mid-month after a surge of warmth.  But then bounce back after.  

I should have said "wintry" month instead of just cold. 2014, 2008, and 1982 all featured cold and snowstorms with deep snow OTG inn March. It's a shoulder season month but those 3 years it leaned more towards winter.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This morning's Euro has mid 70s up to Omaha Tuesday.  Wednesday it has a few spots approaching 80º.  Other models are quicker with the front and would be much less warm in NE Wednesday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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:(

This morning's Euro is even colder over here Friday than it is today.  The snow cover and east flow off the lakes is really hurting us.

838897752_iowa_tmpf(1).thumb.png.7967500ca995ee4e112c15e6e53d5022.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The midweek system is kinda turning to crap for Iowa.  Instead of a strong, wound-up system, at least the GFS, GFSv16, and GDPS have trended toward a weak system with just some showers along a cold front, then the action behind it gets suppressed.

I was hoping for some t. storms and heavy rain like Terry Swails post showed, but still to far out to know what will happen. 
 

Made it up to 50° here yesterday, but today is plain chilly with the brisk wind.

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On 3/3/2021 at 1:05 PM, Hawkeye said:

Somehow, the Cedar Rapids airport actually fell by one degree from noon to 1pm... now sitting at 41º.  Here in the city it's near 50º.

Satellite shows the city as a big dark spot because of all the snow melt.  Meanwhile, the airport is still in the middle of a bright white area in between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City where there is still good snow cover.

I’m sure it’s warmer and melts sooner in the cities, but I’ve noticed those darker blobs whenever there is snow cover and use those to determine where the larger towns are. Buildings, plowed streets, trees, etc don’t reflect as well. 

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31 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Made it up to 50° here yesterday, but today is plain chilly with the brisk wind.

Yes, today was much colder than yesterday... low 50s with no wind to low 40s and wind.  Friday might have less wind, but it'll still be chilly.  We don't really warm up again until Sunday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yes, today was much colder than yesterday... low 50s with no wind to low 40s and wind.  Friday might have less wind, but it'll still be chilly.  We don't really warm up again until Sunday.

Some odd met conditions today at KDSM. Around 4PM- with a brisk E wind - vis started going down below 8SM in what appeared to be FU or Smoke. Than at 5PM , vis was between 5-6SM in what surely must have been FU???  No smell of smoke at all, but air quality was not good. My guess is the melting snow and strong E fetch produced some low lying moisture and an inversion up top. Very odd type of haze. And quite chilly. First day in about a week the NWS over forecasted the highs here in C.IA. image.png.d04a72ef0825beb4c5e60f68c1e9dd5c.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Still have a few big piles around town and I snapped this pic when it was 70 this afternoon. It’s felt bizarre to have some very warm weather and turn around there’s still patches of snow.

F762742D-49D0-4CA8-BD50-8703F8097CA2.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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 When I was out for my walk yesterday I was hit by some sap falling from several Maple trees so yes the sap in running here in west Michigan. The overnight low here at my house was a crisp 18 it looks like the official low at GRR will be 20. At this time it is clear here with a temperature of 21. While most of the snow is gone is the sunny locations there is still a lot of snow in the woods and of course there are still good sized snow piles.

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Good Friday all and a Great Friday it will indeed be! #manifest

Next week features the seasons warmest stretch of weather to date for a large portion of the Plains/MW out ahead of the storm system that is to take shape around the 10th/11th.  Models are dialing in on a ribbon of heavy precip somewhere from KS up in to the lower lakes region.

00z GFS...

 

gfs_apcpn_us_32.png

 

00z Euro...similar in agreement

 

1.png

 

Following this storm system, the idea of a stormy period (10th-16th) is setting up as we "Beware The Ides of March" during the mid-month period.  Winter doesn't want to let go easy as the EPO turns negative during this period.

00z EPS has been trending colder in the week 2 period...

2.png

 

The snow mean has been filling up and shifting south in recent days...I'd like to see ORD tack on at least 3" to hit or exceed the big 5-0 (50") mark for the season.  The EPS in not only the 6-10 but also in the 10-15 day range is showing some huge hits for the LRC's hot zone this cold season.  The volatile month of March is certainly showing its signs in the model world.

3.png

 

00z GEFS somewhat similar as well...

4.png

 

 

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19 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I should have said "wintry" month instead of just cold. 2014, 2008, and 1982 all featured cold and snowstorms with deep snow OTG inn March. It's a shoulder season month but those 3 years it leaned more towards winter.

Some more snowy and cold months of March happened in 1954, 1960, 1965 and 1970. In 1965 and 1970 the cold and snow lingered into April. And in 1975 there was a big time snow storm on April 2nd into the AM of the 3rd Grand Rapids had 10" in that storm and at the time I lived in Bay City where 16" fell along with high winds and a good old fashion thunder snowstorm.

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It seems there are more clouds spilling over eastern Iowa today than the NWS expected.  At least the wind is light.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The system mid next week has turned into a nothingburger for many around here.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not much change in the drought status despite the snow melt. I hope this isn't a mini 1936 situation and we're in for a scorching hot and dry summer. 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NE

 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Gonna pump the brakes on spring here in a couple if days is what things are starting to look like. Starting to see flashed of a possible mention worthy event down here brewing in the longer ranges. Whether true or not by that time, the cold still has merit. Will feel a bit more like winter again at mid month than spring.

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^^ Yep- AO really took a dive today in the long range--

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gifIf the NAO follows suit- things will get very interesting. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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And the MJO looks to be in a favorable phase (1) at these forecast values also. Favorable if you want Spring put on the backburner. If it goes to phase 2- katie bar the door. GFS MJO index forecast phase diagramMJO Temperature Composites and Significance for February - April period

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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