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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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00z Euro weenieland teaser...

A bunch of energy gets left behind in the southwest next week and then becomes a big bowling ball that rolls east through the central US.

sn10_acc.us_c.png

  • Snow 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As @Hawkeye mentioned, the one storm that fits the LRC due around the 15th has been showing up on the various model runs.  While there are a wide variety of solutions, one thing that is for certain, I believe there will be a significant storm during this period late next weekend.

Why not???  It would be a fitting end to a great snow season for most of IA into NE???

 

 

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Looking deeper into the 00z EPS, the model is starting to fill in the snow mean into parts of the Plains states.  At this range, the EPS isn't going to see such a big snow storm like the op runs will show.  I'm sure by Day 5 the EPS snow mean will look a lot different if these trends continue.  The support is there for a potential mid month Big Dog.  Is there one more storm on its heals???

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Week 2 is looking like another late spring winter storm is on the table for those even south of I-80...what's even more "fitting" when looking at this map, is the continuation of the snow drought in the areas of the Dakotas/Prairies of SW Canada and of course our friend @FAR_Weather.  Amazing how this pattern just continues to cycle.

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Haven't checked in in a few days. I'm getting in Spring mood so can't say im super excited about more cold and snow potential. I have a lot of stuff planned so warmer weather would be nice. But hey....Waterloo needs like 13" to set the record so why not!

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With 6 days in the record books March 2021 is just about average temperature wise. Here at Grand Rapids the current mean is 31.3 and that is +0.2. So far the average H/L is 41.0/21.7 the current 30 year average is 39.0/21.7 so the days have been warmer than average but the lows have been colder than average. There has been just a trace of rain/snow. And the seasonal total remains at 42.8” and that is -21.3” At Muskegon the mean there so far 30.0 and that is a departure of -0.9 the H/L there has been 39.8/20.2 and there the H has been warmer than average and the low colder than the 30 year average. They also have had just a trace of rain/snow and their seasonal total remains at 41.6” and that is -43.4 below where they should be by March 7th The story is the same at Lansing where their mean of 30.3 is right at the 30 year average. There the days have been warmer than average with at 40.3 and the lows colder at 20.9. They have not had any rain or snow so far this month and the seasonal snow fall remains at 45.4” and that is +1.4”

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The temp has surged into the 60s already from central to southeast Iowa, but a southeast wind is slowing the warming a bit across east-central Iowa.  The wind should turn to the south later this afternoon.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Warm weather in early March is usually just a tease in the midwest (unless we're talking about 2012). Not too surprised to see possible highs in the 30s coming into view.

1615118400-qGjmBIKnx7s.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The Cedar Rapids airport officially hit 60º this afternoon.  In town we reached about 63º.  🏝️

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Made it up to 89F yesterday which was 2 degrees shy of a record (91F)...high cirrus clouds obscured the suns rays so it didn't really feel all that bad.  Today will be the last 80 degree day till prob next week as we COOL down into the 60's mid/late week as the PAC storms swirls off the coast of Cali and into the SW bringing much welcomed moisture.  Hopefully this time around the valley scores some moisture.

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00z Euro dumping FEET of snow in the Rockies and along the Front Range which is typically what you see in late season storm set ups as such.

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As we are getting closer to the period, the 00z EPS is starting to spread the snow shield as expected across the Plains states.  The EPS doesn't cut the storm as much as the Euro op is suggesting.  It appears there will be a strong late season Arctic HP to the north allowing to press the storm track south and track more easterly than north.  Thank the -EPO for those who want Snow.  I'd love to see these monster snow totals come to fruition.  Denver and the Front Range are in for a doozy of a storm.  These are are the type of storms I'd love to witness in the months of March in CO that literally "bowl" very slowly east into the Plains where it snows for 1-2 days straight.  I'll prob start a storm thread today/tomorrow as the models dial in on the anticipated powerful Mid-March Spring storm.

 

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Edit: Many I-80 specials showing up per the latest 00z EPS members...is this the last???  Prob not, maybe one more storm on its heels a couple days later.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro dumping FEET of snow in the Rockies and along the Front Range which is typically what you see in late season storm set ups as such.

1.png

 

As we are getting closer to the period, the 00z EPS is starting to spread the snow shield as expected across the Plains states.  The EPS doesn't cut the storm as much as the Euro op is suggesting.  It appears there will be a strong late season Arctic HP to the north allowing to press the storm track south and track more easterly than north.  Thank the -EPO for those who want Snow.  I'd love to see these monster snow totals come to fruition.  Denver and the Front Range are in for a doozy of a storm.  These are are the type of storms I'd love to witness in the months of March in CO that literally "bowl" very slowly east into the Plains where it snows for 1-2 days straight.  I'll prob start a storm thread today/tomorrow as the models dial in on the anticipated powerful Mid-March Spring storm.

 

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Edit: Many I-80 specials showing up per the latest 00z EPS members...is this the last???  Prob not, maybe one more storm on its heels a couple days later.

NWS and local mets already talking about the massive changes from this weekend on.  These type of storms are very common in March around here.  Some of our biggies ever have been in March.  We will never turn down moisture.

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8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS and local mets already talking about the massive changes from this weekend on.  These type of storms are very common in March around here.  Some of our biggies ever have been in March.  We will never turn down moisture.

Your prob the lucky few who will benefit from this one based off what I’m seeing. Hope your score Bigly.

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At the current time it is 56 here at my house.  With 60 looking like it is a good possibility I just checked and in the last 30  years the average date of the first 60 day at GR is March 7th so we are jus about average it that department. And while we are past the average last day of a 3” or more snow fall we are still well in the range of the latest date of April 14 (in the last 30 years) so now is the time to get out and enjoy the early spring weather we are having this week but as always “Beware of the Ides of March” or what I call always look out of a March or early April surprise snow fall.

 

 

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ORD has had the driest start to any March (1st-8th) on record.  It has also been the sunniest start on record with 92% of possible sunshine ☀️!!  I'm sure that must feel great back home with temps in the 60's.  Boy, you have to wonder what the summer will look like this year bc there have been some very long dry spells and warm spells.  I got this feeling there is going to be a large heat dome building up across the Plains this year early on that will migrate and expand east.

Anyway, we made it up to 87F yesterday which will mark the end to the very warm temps we have been experiencing in the SW.  Looking forward to more cooler weather and perhaps the best chance this month at seeing some decent moisture for the state of AZ.

 

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The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 57 and that that is the warmest it has been since November 20th. Here in my neck of the woods there is still snow in the woods and on the north side of buildings and of course the good old snow piles. My biggest snow piles are now down to less than 2 feet and could be mostly gone by tonight. The grass here is mostly brown so it will take some warm rains to green it up. I have some spring flowers showing up around the yard but nothing in bloom yet even the crocus are not in bloom yet. At this time it is mostly clear here and 32 with a good amount of frost.

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It has always bugged me that the NWS, on the Iowa state list of current observations,
puts Cedar Rapids, Clinton, and Monticello in the "northeast Iowa" section instead of
"east-central Iowa".  You can't get more "east-central" than Cedar Rapids.


WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR IOWA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CST TUE MAR 09 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* - THESE STATIONS ARE NOT NWS STATIONS...THUS NOT UNDER NWS
QUALITY CONTROL.  THEY ALSO DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH
AS PRECIPITATION OR FOG.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031>034-043>046-091900-
   NORTHWEST IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CARROLL *      SUNNY     63  48  59 S28       29.86F
CHEROKEE *     SUNNY     63  41  45 S18G24    29.83F
DENISON *      SUNNY     64  45  48 S22G32    29.86F
LE MARS *      SUNNY     63  45  51 S29       29.76F
MAURICE *      FAIR      61  45  55 S21G29    29.77F
SHELDON *      SUNNY     63  45  51 S25       29.77F
SIOUX CITY     SUNNY     65  43  44 S17G26    29.79F
6HR MIN TEMP:  42; 6HR MAX TEMP:  65;

SPENCER        SUNNY     63  43  48 S22G35    29.82F
6HR MIN TEMP:  46; 6HR MAX TEMP:  63;

STORM LAKE *   SUNNY     63  45  51 S24G30      N/A
$$

IAZ055>058-069>071-079>083-090>094-091900-
   SOUTHWEST IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ATLANTIC *     SUNNY     64  43  45 S22G31    29.87F
AUDUBON *      SUNNY     64  45  48 S22G29    29.89F
CLARINDA *     SUNNY     68  45  42 S23G32    29.92F
COUNCIL BLFS * SUNNY     66  41  39 S21G28    29.84F
CRESTON *      SUNNY     66  43  42 S24       29.93F
HARLAN  *      SUNNY     64  45  48 S25       29.85F
LAMONI         SUNNY     66  42  41 S20G30    29.97F
6HR MIN TEMP:  49; 6HR MAX TEMP:  66;

RED OAK *      SUNNY     68  46  45 S23G31    29.89F
SHENANDOAH *   SUNNY     68  45  42 S24       29.88F
$$

IAZ047>049-059>061-072>074-084-091900-
   CENTRAL IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
AMES           SUNNY     65  40  39 S23G31    29.93F
6HR MIN TEMP:  44; 6HR MAX TEMP:  65;

ANKENY *       SUNNY     66  41  39 S17G28    29.95F
BOONE *        SUNNY     63  46  55 S20G30    29.91F
CHARITON *     SUNNY     64  45  48 S22G33    29.98F
DES MOINES     MOSUNNY   66  41  40 S23G32    29.94F
6HR MIN TEMP:  49; 6HR MAX TEMP:  66;

GRINNELL*      MOSUNNY   65  39  37 S22       30.01F
KNOXVILLE *    SUNNY     66  41  39 S21G32    29.98F
MARSHALLTOWN   SUNNY     62  41  46 S24G33    29.96F
6HR MIN TEMP:  40; 6HR MAX TEMP:  62;

NEWTON *       SUNNY     64  43  45 S25G31    29.96F
PELLA *        SUNNY     67  40  36 S18G29    30.00F
PERRY *        FAIR      63  42  46 S23G29    29.91F
$$

IAZ004>006-015-016-023>025-035-036-091900-
   NORTH CENTRAL IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALGONA *       SUNNY     61  45  55 S28G37    29.85F
CLARION *      SUNNY     61  48  63 S28G35    29.90F
ESTHERVILLE    SUNNY     57  45  64 S25G36    29.83F
6HR MIN TEMP:  43; 6HR MAX TEMP:  57;

FORT DODGE *   SUNNY     62  41  46 S21G28    29.89F
MASON CITY     MOSUNNY   59  39  47 S25G37    29.93F
6HR MIN TEMP:  38; 6HR MAX TEMP:  59;

FOREST CITY *  FAIR      59  43  55 S23       29.90F
WEBSTER CITY * SUNNY     63  48  59 S24G33    29.88F
IOWA FALLS *   FAIR      62  38  42 S20G28    29.95F
$$

IAZ007>011-017>019-026>030-037>042-050>054-066-091900-
   NORTHEAST IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CEDAR RAPIDS   SUNNY     63  38  39 S24G31    30.03F
6HR MIN TEMP:  42; 6HR MAX TEMP:  64;

CHARLES CITY * MOSUNNY   59  41  51 S26G33    29.96F
CLINTON *      SUNNY     63  42  46 S20       30.13F
DECORAH *      SUNNY     61  37  41 S18G28    29.99F
DUBUQUE        SUNNY     60  39  45 S18       30.10F
6HR MIN TEMP:  41; 6HR MAX TEMP:  60;

MONTICELLO *   SUNNY     63  43  48 S21G26    30.08F
OELWEIN *      MOSUNNY   61  41  48 S24G31    30.01F
WATERLOO       MOSUNNY   62  39  42 S21G31    29.98F
6HR MIN TEMP:  43; 6HR MAX TEMP:  63;

$$

IAZ064-065-067-068-078-091900-
   EAST CENTRAL IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
DAVENPORT      SUNNY     66  38  35 S21G31    30.13F
IOWA CITY      SUNNY     68  39  34 S20       30.07F
6HR MIN TEMP:  41; 6HR MAX TEMP:  68;

MUSCATINE *    SUNNY     68  37  32 S24       30.09F
QUAD CITIES    SUNNY     69  36  29 S14G29    30.11F
6HR MIN TEMP:  44; 6HR MAX TEMP:  69;

$$

IAZ062-063-075>077-085>089-095>099-091900-
   SOUTHEAST IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOSUNNY   68  39  34 S16       30.11F
6HR MIN TEMP:  42; 6HR MAX TEMP:  68;

FAIRFIELD *    SUNNY     66  41  39 S18G28    30.06F
FORT MADISON * SUNNY     66  41  39 S15G22    30.11F
KEOKUK *       SUNNY     66  41  39 S16G25    30.10F
OSKALOOSA *    FAIR      67  44  43 S22       30.02F
OTTUMWA        CLOUDY    64  41  42 S20G31    30.02F
6HR MIN TEMP:  45; 6HR MAX TEMP:  65;

WASHINGTON *   SUNNY     66  45  45 S20G26    30.05F
$$
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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Once we get through tomorrow and then it cools down, I will have recorded 60+ for highs 9 straight days in March. Only the 1st of March was below 60 to start the first 10 days.

Average high and low as of yesterday(8th): 32.8/64.0

February ended at 8.2/27.2 so a 24.6 degree increase for lows and a 36.8(!!) increase for high temps this month

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There's another system at the end of the Euro run that drops heavy snow here as well.  We just need to enjoy the current early to mid week warmth.  Even if we get no snow, it'll be much cooler for a while.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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