Jump to content

March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

The CAMs (hrrr, nam) barely drop any rain here tonight, instead lifting storms into northeast Iowa.  I was really hoping for better from this system.

  • Sad 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterdays official high of 66 at Grand Rapids was the 2nd warmest high of record for any March 9th For today the record high is 69 set way back in 1894 in 2nd place for today is 65 set in 1955. If it stays above 41 up to midnight tonight today will set the warmest minimum for any March 10th the current record was set in in 2010 and again in 2013. The current temperature here with cloudy skies is 52.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Gorgeous Sunrise from my front balcony looking northeast towards the mountains...

 

B0BD0565-C66F-4BBF-BEB3-067E249DD1F3.jpeg

I imagine they don't sell a lot of lawn mowers out there.

  • Like 2
  • lol 4

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wish we could get this thick cloud shield out of here.  It's holding our temp back today.  We may be able to get some breaks by mid afternoon.  The increased humidity feels nice.  My anticipation is always high for the first surge of warm, moist spring air.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is now cloudy and 66 here. My yard is now snow free as the last bit of the driveway snow pile has melted in the last hour. There are still snow piles in the area and in the woods there is still some patches of snow. The official reading at the airport is 64.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I wish we could get this thick cloud shield out of here.  It's holding our temp back today.  We may be able to get some breaks by mid afternoon.  The increased humidity feels nice.  My anticipation is always high for the first surge of warm, moist spring air.

More breaks would allow more instability for the narrow line of storms expected this evening. Here’s the latest outlook from the SPC.

 

3A147DD8-DEC2-4D8E-942F-8AD5180EA687.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sparky said:

More breaks would allow more instability for the narrow line of storms expected this evening. Here’s the latest outlook from the SPC.

 

3A147DD8-DEC2-4D8E-942F-8AD5180EA687.gif

The sun has broke out here from time to time. Temp is 72, looking forward to hearing the thunder later on.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like some of you are about to get a severe thunderstorm watch

MD 150 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern IA...southeast MN
   and west-central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101932Z - 102130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across parts of central IA
   and southeast MN this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to
   develop in the next 1-3 hours. A watch may be needed by 3pm.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating ahead of a surface low and cold
   front has resulted in temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to low
   70s F across much of IA this afternoon. Strong southerly low level
   flow has allowed low-to-mid 50s F surface dewpoints to spread
   northward across IA into southeast MN and west-central WI, aiding in
   weak destabilization. The strongest instability as of 19z resides
   over the western half of IA, where skies have cleared and
   temperatures are warmer. Cumulus across this area have deepened over
   the past hour, and some stronger reflectivity is now evident across
   far northwest IA/southwest MN. This activity is elevated on the cool
   side of a warm front stretching from northwest IA into west-central
   WI. While this activity could result in some small hail given steep
   midlevel lapse rates (7-8 C/km), any severe threat this far
   west/north should remain limited. 

   As the surface low continues to develop east/northeast this
   afternoon, additional heating is expected in broken cloudiness
   across central IA into southeast MN, resulting in weakening
   inhibition. This will coincide with stronger upper forcing ejecting
   across the region with the upper shortwave trough and additional
   surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-3
   hours. Favorably curved low-level hodographs are apparent in
   forecast soundings as well as in VWP data from KARX. While
   instability will remain weak through this evening, strong effective
   shear coupled with backed low level flow should support a couple of
   storms with supercell structures capable of all severe hazards. With
   time, any discrete cells that develop are expected to become more
   linear during the evening as the cold front surges eastward and
   deep-layer flow becomes more parallel to the surface boundary. This
   could result in increasing potential for a few strong-to-severe wind
   gusts into the nighttime hours.

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 03/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

 

 

  • Like 1
  • scream 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like some of you are about to get a severe thunderstorm watch

MD 150 graphic


   Mesoscale Discussion 0150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern IA...southeast MN
   and west-central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101932Z - 102130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across parts of central IA
   and southeast MN this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to
   develop in the next 1-3 hours. A watch may be needed by 3pm.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating ahead of a surface low and cold
   front has resulted in temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to low
   70s F across much of IA this afternoon. Strong southerly low level
   flow has allowed low-to-mid 50s F surface dewpoints to spread
   northward across IA into southeast MN and west-central WI, aiding in
   weak destabilization. The strongest instability as of 19z resides
   over the western half of IA, where skies have cleared and
   temperatures are warmer. Cumulus across this area have deepened over
   the past hour, and some stronger reflectivity is now evident across
   far northwest IA/southwest MN. This activity is elevated on the cool
   side of a warm front stretching from northwest IA into west-central
   WI. While this activity could result in some small hail given steep
   midlevel lapse rates (7-8 C/km), any severe threat this far
   west/north should remain limited. 

   As the surface low continues to develop east/northeast this
   afternoon, additional heating is expected in broken cloudiness
   across central IA into southeast MN, resulting in weakening
   inhibition. This will coincide with stronger upper forcing ejecting
   across the region with the upper shortwave trough and additional
   surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-3
   hours. Favorably curved low-level hodographs are apparent in
   forecast soundings as well as in VWP data from KARX. While
   instability will remain weak through this evening, strong effective
   shear coupled with backed low level flow should support a couple of
   storms with supercell structures capable of all severe hazards. With
   time, any discrete cells that develop are expected to become more
   linear during the evening as the cold front surges eastward and
   deep-layer flow becomes more parallel to the surface boundary. This
   could result in increasing potential for a few strong-to-severe wind
   gusts into the nighttime hours.

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 03/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

 

 

The sun has broke out and its 64 and windy. Kinda feels like something is brewing. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rain rate (3” to 4”> for about three minutes) was more intense than I expected, but it didn’t last long. Some lightning n thunder as well with wind gusts around 40.

Over third of an inch so far. 

Edited by Sparky
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Rain rate was more intense than I expected, but it didn’t last long. Some lightning n thunder as well with wind gusts near 40.

I noticed there was a heavier part of the line moving through your area.  A weaker part moved through Cedar Rapids, but one decent, but tiny, cell passed through at the end and produced a 2-minute downpour.  That's really all I was hoping for from this.  I finished with 0.13" for the day.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the 2nd day in a row the official high of 67 yesterday came in as the 2nd warmest high for the date. The official low for March 10 of 49 is the warmest low for the date and one of the warmer lows for the month of March. At this time it is mostly cloudy here and the temperature is now down to 52 here. I recorded .05" of rain fall here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z EPS has not 1, not 2, but possibly 3 more systems that could lay down some snow across the Plains/MW/GL's region over the next 2 weeks.

At the end of the run, it's showing another amplified late season shot of cold as the west coast ridge pops.  

1.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The official overnight low at GRR was 33 here at my house the low was 28. At the current time with clear skies it is now 36 here. There has only been a reported trace of snow fall this month at Grand Rapids and GR remains at 45.8" of total snow fall for the season and now is over 23" below average as of this date. Todays sun angle is the same as it is on October 1st and now the time between sun rise and sun set is 11h 45m and gaining 3 minutes a day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...