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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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DVN radar was just taken offline this morning and it'll be out for a week.  I will have to use the Des Moines radar for the system early next week.

When DVN radar is back up, DMX will go down for a week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Boy, it's a nippy 41F and a wet/damp morning as we had some beneficial rains overnight.  I heard the "drip, drip" of the rain coming down the roofs on our driveway.  There are no gutters so the rain water just washes right down the sides of the roofs.  Flagstaff officially picked up 13.5" over the past 24-30 hours and Snowbowl about 17" with a bit more on the way today.  This storm has delivered in many ways and many are thrilled to see the moisture.

 

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The length of daylight is now the same as it is on September 30th. While the sun angle is the same it is much warmer in September than it is today. Today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 43/26 and the record high is 75 and the record low is +3. While on September 30th the average H/L is 67/47 and the record high is 85 and the record low is 30.

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Tonight's GFS and GFSv16 are hitting part of Iowa hard Wednesday/Thursday as the next low wraps up.

snku_024h.us_mw.png

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The pattern setting up for the remainder of this month is actually looking better than I thought about a week ago for AZ.  The next system is poised to drop some more snow for the mountains early this week and then another trough targets SoCal and the SW late the following weekend.  

00z Euro is showing a delightful amount of snow and the signal is there among the other models as well.  

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My furnace has been kicking on all night long, the most I've seen it since I've been here....it's a very nippy 37.9F here in the hills of Fountain Hills.  Should make for a chilly morning walk if I do indeed take one in a couple hours.

 

 

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The official low at Grand Rapids looks to have been 35 but here at my house I got down to 26. At the time it is sunny here with a reading of 34. So far this month has been sunny and dry with just 0.05" of rain at GR. Just a trace of rain at Muskegon, 0.01" at Holland, 0.07" at Kalamazoo and the "wet" spot so far is Lansing with 0.09".

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Whatever it is the GFS has been seeing for the 18th on the 18z/0z/6z, it’s fierce. Just dumping snow in a relatively short matter of time. Obviously bouncing around on location, but it’s shown up.

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...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

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Still not out of the woods on a freeze/frost in the later periods of the forecast, but looking like the conventional oklahoma spring. In terms of events upcoming, starting today, I look to be the precip hotspot down here for the next 240 or so. Floating right on or near the average for the year and making up for the losses in February and a down month back in December. Really where you want to be opening spring, honestly.

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So far there has been no snow nor FR here. At this time it is cloudy and 30 here at my house. The total rain/melted snow so far this month here is just 0.05" If it stays this dry it will be a slower than average green up this spring. But that said in looking at past dry March's in the past all of the top 12 had wetter April's.  And a few had very wet April's. In the 13 spot 1915 had a dry March then a dry April.

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The snow yesterday came down really hard from what I saw on social media and one of my friends sent me a vid when the wall of snow came rushing in.  ORD picked up 1.8" and creeping closer to that 50"mark (48.8" officially).

The next system is already producing another round of beneficial snows up in the high country to my north.  2-6" is in the forecast up in Flagstaff.  The mountains to my east are getting hit rather hard right now so when the clouds clear later today I'll try to capture some photos. Another cool day on tap here with temps in the 60's but with sunshine it should feel pretty nice.  A much welcomed warm spell is heading our way starting Thu through the weekend as temps rise into the mid 80's.

00z Euro advertising a healthy dose of moisture for the MW...this would be have been an awesome winter storm last month!

 

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

So far there has been no snow nor FR here. At this time it is cloudy and 30 here at my house. The total rain/melted snow so far this month here is just 0.05" If it stays this dry it will be a slower than average green up this spring. But that said in looking at past dry March's in the past all of the top 12 had wetter April's.  And a few had very wet April's. In the 13 spot 1915 had a dry March then a dry April.

I welcome it dry.  Having a lake house it's nice to see the water level down on Lake Michigan this winter.  Pentwater Lake (connected to Lake Michigan)  was overflowing the road we had to drive 20 minutes out of the way just to get to town.   Hoping for a Dry summer as well.  

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42 minutes ago, Tom said:

The snow yesterday came down really hard from what I saw on social media and one of my friends sent me a vid when the wall of snow came rushing in.  ORD picked up 1.8" and creeping closer to that 50"mark (48.8" officially).

The next system is already producing another round of beneficial snows up in the high country to my north.  2-6" is in the forecast up in Flagstaff.  The mountains to my east are getting hit rather hard right now so when the clouds clear later today I'll try to capture some photos. Another cool day on tap here with temps in the 60's but with sunshine it should feel pretty nice.  A much welcomed warm spell is heading our way starting Thu through the weekend as temps rise into the mid 80's.

00z Euro advertising a healthy dose of moisture for the MW...this would be have been an awesome winter storm last month!

 

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i was saying that this morning, if this storm was a month earlier when we had our coldest temp in decades we would have been digging ourselves out for days! 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro advertising a healthy dose of moisture for the MW...this would be have been an awesome winter storm last month!

This happens pretty much every year here. Once winter and the cold air is gone, we get these wet storms with perfect tracks March into April. Just the final middle fingers from mother nature as we move into spring and summer.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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24 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

This happens pretty much every year here. Once winter and the cold air is gone, we get these wet storms with perfect tracks March into April. Just the final middle fingers from mother nature as we move into spring and summer.

It's happened to us farther north as well many times over the past several years.  Until this year, however, we were able to score a few good ones.  Hoping that in the coming years the storm track benefits those farther south in the cold season. I  really believe nature is balancing out.

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

I welcome it dry.  Having a lake house it's nice to see the water level down on Lake Michigan this winter.  Pentwater Lake (connected to Lake Michigan)  was overflowing the road we had to drive 20 minutes out of the way just to get to town.   Hoping for a Dry summer as well.  

If there is indeed a dry summer that could lead to a warm summer. We shall see.

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The Wednesday/Thursday system continues to trend south.  Most models now have only have a few tenths (rain), max, up to Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Not that I think this will happen, but it would be a funny ending to KC's winter -- getting a true snow storm in the 2nd half of March when temps are above above freezing on the ground.  I'll take snow almost any time I can get it.  But I don't want to kill all those buds on the trees and green stuff coming up from the ground. 

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12z Euro puts it right over ya.

1616155200-9zN0pPdgqsM.png

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Just now, someweatherdude said:

There is actually some consistency in the models.  A couple of the NAM models are on board.  I'd still be shocked. The models can't accurately predict snow around here in February.  I don't have any reason to trust them in March.  Although it would be interesting to have a tornado and a snow storm in the same week.  That tornado was about five miles south of my house. 

the Nam model is showing 5 inches over KC and now the euro is showing 4 inches. This would be our biggest snow of the season if this pans out 

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If you get that snow- it's not going to do anything to the buds and green stuff other than slow it down the sprouting process Temps below 20F will however. April I believe 2007- had mid teens on the 7th here in DSM which did mess with things.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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49 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

the Nam model is showing 5 inches over KC and now the euro is showing 4 inches. This would be our biggest snow of the season if this pans out 

Looks like it could happen.  Warms up before it gets to me but that's ok I don't need it with cows calving.

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It might be fun to have one last hurrah, but I've pretty much been in full spring time mode last couple of weeks. Things are greening up nicely with the recent rains. Still, only need 5.4" of snow to reach the seasonal average so there's that.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Wednesday/Thursday system continues to trend south.  Most models now have only have a few tenths (rain), max, up to Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

Forecast rainfall amounts here are barely half of what they had been.

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Wow- HIgh risk. I don't follow summer severe weather as much as I do winter wx but enough to know that SPC doesn't just hand those out.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Wow- HIgh risk. I don't follow summer severe weather as much as I do winter wx but enough to know that SPC doesn't just hand those out.

I think it’s maybe just an average of once or twice a year anywhere in the U.S.

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Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard...that must be quite the scene down in the TX Panhandle...

Quote
Current conditions at

Dumas, Moore County Airport (KDUX)

Lat: 35.86°NLon: 102.01°WElev: 3704ft.
nsn.png

Heavy Snow and Windy

30°F

-1°C

Humidity 96%
Wind Speed NW 31 G 40 mph
Barometer 29.82 in
Dewpoint 29°F (-2°C)
Visibility 0.50 mi
Wind Chill 15°F (-9°C)
 
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Back home, I can only imagine what this system "could" have produced during Dec-Feb...it'll be a raw/wet/windy/dreary day tomorrow...

 

Tab2FileL.png?fce9e07d695b4a4335e2076207

 

Following this system, however, a nice warming trend is in the works....60's should feel pretty nice after a few days in the chill.

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The forecast for Thursday is hinting at strong and gusty NE winds. Here in west Michigan strong NE winds are not all that common. They are more common in east Michigan along the lake Huron and Saginaw Bay. At the current time it is clear and 30 here at my house I had a overnight low of 26.

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One last taste of Winter or one last middle finger from mother nature.  Looks like about 2 degrees in temp will determine whether KC will get a heavy wet snow and snowfall rates of near 2in per hour or just a rain snow mix.  Models seem to be trending towards the heavy wet snow solution.  This signature storm in this years pattern has produced big snow amounts in Oklahoma and Iowa this year but not KC.

NAM Model Forecast

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Not sure where to post this but likely get best exposure here.  Update on new climate  30 year "normals" - set to be released in May 2021-

 

https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/explaining-the-new-climate-normals/

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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