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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Just now, Clinton said:

One last taste of Winter or one last middle finger from mother nature.  Looks like about 2 degrees in temp will determine whether KC will get a heavy wet snow and snowfall rates of near 2in per hour or just a rain snow mix.  Models seem to be trending towards the heavy wet snow solution.  This signature storm in this years pattern has produced big snow amounts in Oklahoma and Iowa this year but not KC.

NAM Model Forecast

Per the LRC king this morning:

The track of this storm seems to be perfect for a heavy band of snow in this comma head. If it does change to snow, then 2" of snow per hour is possible for three to six hours. Add that up! That would be 6 to 12 inches of snow. Again, that is if the temperature drops to near 32 degrees. If it is 35 to 37 degrees then it will be rain with snowflakes mixed in.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

KC always seems to be right on the line one way or another.  KC NWS definitely not convinced.  From their forecast discussion:


Later Wednesday evening, cold air advection aloft on the back end of
the system will allow for 850mb temperatures to dip to 0 to -5c.
This could be enough for some snow to mix in Wednesday night,
especially in the northern half of the area. Although the column
and surface is a bit warm to support much in the way of
accumulations, some small accumulations of less than 1 inch could
be possible in northern MO given the dynamic nature of the system.

Not surprised they arn't buying in and they may be right not to.  12z Models are not backing off so far.

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Well, some awesome news for me. Models were showing rain this time today for a long time. I went to Cascade Mountain yesterday (it's awesome for the Midwest, they even gave me a FREE ticket since I have a pass at Alpine Valley and said I could come back again this week). The rain Portage, WI was supposed to get is actually snow, even though it's 35. What a nice surprise.

The base was great but pretty thin with all the warm temps, that rain would have been horrible but this snow is awesome. It's not enough to really build up the base, but it didn't hurt it.

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For what it is worth here is a winter severity map.

https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

As expected it shows west Michigan with a "mild" winter. It shows east Michigan with mostly a moderate winter but several locations to the west and south west of Michigan it shows with a severe to extreme winter so I guess the best way to describe that is location, location.

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Regarding the upcoming snow possibility...it seems the lower level temp profiles might be better towards the KC area than in MBY to the west. I really don't have a good guess to be honest...though I lean towards mostly rain mixed with some snow at times for here.

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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51 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Live feed of the severe weather from one of the best meteorologists, James Spann from Alabama.

http://abc3340.com/watch

 

James Spann is the MAN. Probably the best out there imo.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Winter Weather Advisory

 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
215 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...Snow Expected Tonight into Thursday Morning...

KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-
180315-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0009.210318T0500Z-210318T1700Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Platte-Clay-Ray-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass-
Johnson MO-Bates-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth,
Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe,
Shawnee, Lenexa, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron,
Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge,
Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston,
Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson,
Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,
Concordia, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill,
Warrensburg, Butler, Adrian, and Rich Hill
215 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches with isolated amounts as high as 4 inches. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snow amounts will occur on
  grassy and elevated surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.
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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

D**n, just came on to post this.

SPC used to hand out high risks like candy before the enhanced category became a thing, allowing for less usage of the moderate category, and as a result, the high category.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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42 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

James Spann is the MAN. Probably the best out there imo.

I was just thinking about his coverage of the 2011 outbreak the other day and wondered if he's still on the air. Great to see he is, his severe wx coverage is truly one of the best, if not the best, in the country.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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17 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Here’s the frequency of different levels of severe outlooks across the CONUS. It goes back only to 2002, and since then it looks like parts of eastern Iowa never had a high risk and not many moderate risks, but my state seems to be a hotspot for slight risks which do seem common here. (There should’ve been a high risk in Iowa for the derecho last August!)

 

Edit: Oops, I stated that wrong, so I deleted that sentence. The maps that I posted are current up until March 17, 2021, just not the one in this link. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2021-03-17

 

 

 

65C98B04-FDB2-4092-8BE9-71BAE8A9DC83.png

E3BABA36-98FF-4597-8446-2D4438186E81.png

3DF48112-A580-4A44-993E-910F06BE1591.png

4A3E7A74-AF5B-44A7-B440-79775BA36D52.png

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This system really ended up quite far south.  Tonight's deformation zone precip didn't even make it up to Kansas City.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I forgot who it was exactly, but I think one of our members in IA went down to the Panhandle of Florida for Spring Break this week.  Panama city is getting nailed right now with severe wx.  I hope his family is safe.

Quote

Tornado Warning



Tornado Warning
FLC005-045-181215-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0017.210318T1148Z-210318T1215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
648 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...
  East central Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida...

* Until 715 AM CDT.

* At 648 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 10 miles west of Wewahitchka, or 12 miles east of
  Callaway, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Stonemill Creek and Wewahitchka around 705 AM CDT.

 

Major outbreak occurred yesterday and the severe wx reports indicate just that...

today Filtered Reports Graphic

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There was a total of 0.06" of rain in the rain gauge this morning that brings the March total of 0.11". I can not recall the last time there was a wind advisory for a NE wind in this area. There are many time with a deep low to the south that the east side of the state gets a strong NE wind off of Lake Huron or the Saginaw Bay but I don't recall a wind advisory for a NE wind on this side of the state. At this time the rain has ended and it is cloudy and 35 here. 

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Looks like an amazing stretch of weather coming for SMI.  Saturday thru Wednesday of next week.    Cold nights  mild to warm days (low 60's) plenty of sunshine.   So much better than the last few March's.  Spring is here!

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23 hours ago, Tom said:

I forgot who it was exactly, but I think one of our members in IA went down to the Panhandle of Florida for Spring Break this week.  Panama city is getting nailed right now with severe wx.  I hope his family is safe.

 

Major outbreak occurred yesterday and the severe wx reports indicate just that...

today Filtered Reports Graphic

You are correct.  Still down here but that line of storms the other night was intense.  Lost power for a bit.  Was fun watching the lightning on the gulf and 6ft waves roll in.  

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1 hour ago, BMT said:

You are correct.  Still down here but that line of storms the other night was intense.  Lost power for a bit.  Was fun watching the lightning on the gulf and 6ft waves roll in.  

Glad your alright!  Hey, at least you got to experience some fun wx down there and got a taste of what may be coming to your area up north later this Spring/Summer across the MW.  I'm sure the scene was beautiful to see the lighting bolts across the ocean.  Gosh, it's been a while since I've been down near the GOM or the tropics.  It makes me want to take a trip this year and dip my feet into the ocean!  Have fund down there!

 

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My wife am me did the Red Rock Canyon the last time we were in Vegas. Boy that was a long time ago must have been in maybe 2000  or before as it was before there was as much security to get on a plane. We also went to  Mount Charleston. There was still snow up in the mountains and it was late April. It is to the west of Vegas and it is a short drive.

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3 hours ago, westMJim said:

My wife am me did the Red Rock Canyon the last time we were in Vegas. Boy that was a long time ago must have been in maybe 2000  or before as it was before there was as much security to get on a plane. We also went to  Mount Charleston. There was still snow up in the mountains and it was late April. It is to the west of Vegas and it is a short drive.

I visited Mt Charleston about 15 years ago and it was during Thanksgiving week when we visited my sister when she lived here.  Very nice place and quite a steep ride up.  I think we’re heading there in a bit to take a look and see how it is up there.

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Welcome to Spring!  It's a windy morning here in Sin city where the breezes will be ramping up later today.  We didn't make it out to Mt Charleston yesterday, but it's on the agenda today.  Winds are forecast to gust up to 60 mph there today!  The storm tracking into the Rockies is certainly whipping up the winds out here.  LAS reached 80F for the first time this year yesterday.  On avg, March 15th is their 1st 80F or better day.

 

Image

 

 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Welcome to Spring!  It's a windy morning here in Sin city where the breezes will be ramping up later today.  We didn't make it out to Mt Charleston yesterday, but it's on the agenda today.  Winds are forecast to gust up to 60 mph there today!  The storm tracking into the Rockies is certainly whipping up the winds out here.  LAS reached 80F for the first time this year yesterday.  On avg, March 15th is their 1st 80F or better day.

 

Image

 

 

You're in Vegas now? Dang!

52, sunny and windy up here in St Paul

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