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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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With clear skies calm winds and low dew points the low dropped down to 25 here overnight. At this time it is clear and 35. On this date in 2012 the temperature soared up to 87 and that is not only the record for the date but also the warmest high of any day in March at Grand Rapids. It has reached 70 or better a total of 6 times on this date. The coldest low and maximum of 18/9 was set in 1965 and there was 9" on snow on the ground that day.

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18 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

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Last year it seemed like we couldn’t buy a significant rainfall event around here, now this will be our second decent one in a months time... if this pattern keeps up we might go from moderate to severe drought to widespread flooding again. 

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The Euro and Canadian have a whopper storm farther nw, GFS/GFSv16 are weaker and southeast.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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13 hours ago, gabel23 said:

@Tom Thanks for sharing that’s amazing! I love teaching my geology unit; it’s amazing to think what the climate was like in these different regions millions of years ago. Then you throw in the Native American history and you have an amazing collection of history!

The Native American history is truly inspiring and how they were able to live off the ,land in the dry desert climate.  I couldn't imagine what life was like back then.  My, what a minimalistic life that was compared to what it is now!

Yesterday, on our drive back we stopped at the Hoover Dam and this massive structure never lets me down.  While the visitor center was closed, that did not stop the tourists from flooding the area "no pun intended"...btw, they do need the moisture bc as you will see in the video in my next post, the water levels are very low.  I was here about 15 years ago and I could remember how much higher the water levels were and the massive fish that were seen near the shore.

 

 

 

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Playing a little catch up in the wx dept as I'm back in the saddle.  Lot's of action this week across the nation as the first system tracks over the the state of AZ and into NM will eventually blossom into a noteworthy, wet storm system across the heartland.  A second, strong cutter is in the works for the lower lakes region.  Two ribbons of very heavy rainfall are being advertised across our Sub. 


Last night's 00z Euro...

 

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Sneak peak into Easter Weekend and the majority of the consensus is WARM!  The bunnies won't be burrowing in snow this year as it appears many of you will be basking in possible summer like temps as April opens.  No April fools jokes here.

 

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This will be a pleasant sunny and warm period of the latter part of March. Yesterdays high of 65 at Grand Rapids was the 11th warmest March 21st at GR the high of 62 at Muskegon was their 8th warmest March 21st and over at Lansing the high of 66 was their 6th warmest high. All readins are well below the record readings that happened in 2012. But that said the highs are more like late April but with the clear skies and low dew points the lows have been closer to average.

We took a road trip up to Bay City yesterday and of course the weather was great. They are still collection the sap of Maple syrup and it looks like this year will be a good year for that. I had a overnight low of 32 here and at this time with clear skies it is 50.

 

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You can definitely tell that "Snow Machine v16" ran the 12z. :lol:

Throws down an April central plains monster at the end. Wow.

Will definitely be some cooler and variable weather in that time. There's a scheduled cold shot around that time from current patterning and looking at the BSR type stuff, the wave train out there is basically a metronome right now and as long as the weak side keeps dumping and pumping, it will flex out and or lock the trough over the US. 

Nice winter pattern in the wrong season. Lol.

Warmer than avg may be the justifiable lean for the next bit over a good amt of the conus and central US, but it wouldn't surprise me to see any real warmth kicked down the road. 

My call, variable to cold later on.

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52 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

You can definitely tell that "Snow Machine v16" ran the 12z. :lol:

Throws down an April central plains monster at the end. Wow.

Will definitely be some cooler and variable weather in that time. There's a scheduled cold shot around that time from current patterning and looking at the BSR type stuff, the wave train out there is basically a metronome right now and as long as the weak side keeps dumping and pumping, it will flex out and or lock the trough over the US. 

Nice winter pattern in the wrong season. Lol.

Warmer than avg may be the justifiable lean for the next bit over a good amt of the conus and central US, but it wouldn't surprise me to see any real warmth kicked down the road. 

My call, variable to cold later on.

In the Great lakes, the real warmth is happening now.   It will get colder of course, but already seeing signs any cold shots will be brief with overall warmth reigning over the region in the Great Lakes in the long term.  

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Steady light rain/drizzle for a while now with some heavier bursts, nothing impressive so far. On another note, the lowest temp of the month will almost certainly be 21, which is quite warm. We're doomed for single digits in April. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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13 hours ago, tStacsh said:

In the Great lakes, the real warmth is happening now.   It will get colder of course, but already seeing signs any cold shots will be brief with overall warmth reigning over the region in the Great Lakes in the long term.  

I meant to come back on later and sort of elaborate on that but I never made it back. Sort of an al Nino pattern for awhile is what you're speaking of and you're correct. The GLs and Upper Plains to Canada are going to get mighty toasty. The cold anomalies will be underneath.

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38 degrees and raining sideways.  Hastings disco yesterday mentioned what a perfect set up this storm is for precipitation in our area.  Some years in March there would have been cold air involved, so yesterday and today would have been one large snowstorm or blizzard.  Could get another 0.5-1.0" today so the forecast amounts of 2-3" are going to be spot on.  

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This month is turning out better than I originally thought it would.  If the 00z Euro is right, there will be several more rounds of snow/rain for the SW drought stricken regions through this weekend before a long period of real summer time warmth builds in the SW.  Bring it!

 

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Yesterday’s official high of 69 tied 1910 for the 5th warmest March 22nd but it was well below the record high of 85 set in 2012 and the 82 that was reached in 1938. Here at my house I had a high of 71 yesterday. The official overnight low at GRR was 45 If that holds until midnight today will have the 4th warmest minimum for any March 23rd The overnight low here at my house was 43. The record high for today at Grand Rapids is 74 set in 1907 and in 2nd place is 71 in 1910. IF the high reaches the low 70’s today GR would set a new record. At this time it is cloudy and 47 here and a warmer 52 at the airport.

 

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up to .81" of rain so far from this system and now 4.26" of rain for the month.

So far we're averaging 8.4 degrees above normal for the month and 20/22 days have been above average. The 2 days that weren't above average were only 1 degree below average.

The last time it snowed here was February 21st. Will be curious to see if that's the last time this season, which is pretty darn early for last snowfall. After the rain ends tomorrow morning, highs back in the 50s and then 60s by this weekend

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35 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Looks like we might have a few thundershowers knocking on our door in a little bit here in Omaha... (maybe mother nature can grant me some much-needed thunder and lightning for my birthday today)

image.png.dfeebce25ed2d453d46a96fa7c853546.png

Happy B-Day Bryan!

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It looked like a few bands of heavy rain moved through on radar this morning into early afternoon, but at the ground it's much lighter.  Even the deep orange color was only moderate rain.  I've picked up 0.36" so far.  Maybe I can get a rumble of thunder later.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some sun is actually poking out this afternoon. Only 1.42” at the airport so far, which might be it. A little under forecast, but still a solid drought buster.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Warm April?

 

GFS showing multiple freezes after April 2nd and a chilly looking pattern. Been flashing this for the last few days. 

 

KSHB's Jeff Penner, also a LRC partner mentioned that the part of the pattern that occurred FEB. 5th to the 19th will cycle back through. Only problem with that statement is that it goes against their 46 day pattern they have been saying all winter long. IF the Feb. 5th to 19th pattern had returned on time, it would have shown up today. March 23rd minus 46 days puts us right around the beginning of that incredible cold stretch(FEB 5th) So, I'm not sure if he miss spoke but it doesn't seem like he did.

Any truth to this potential cold here in KC around Easter weekend. 

We had a very wet winter! Officially we were over 7 inches of total moisture (average is 4.45 inches) and we were much warmer than average. (outside that two week stretch that was very impressive, winter was very warm here in KC. I recorded 8.12 inches of rain/melted snow at my house on the NE side of KC. Well below average snow came in at 11.1 inches.

Happy Spring everyone!! 

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I got a real nice downpour this evening.  My total rainfall today is 0.75".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

Warm April?

 

GFS showing multiple freezes after April 2nd and a chilly looking pattern. Been flashing this for the last few days. 

 

KSHB's Jeff Penner, also a LRC partner mentioned that the part of the pattern that occurred FEB. 5th to the 19th will cycle back through. Only problem with that statement is that it goes against their 46 day pattern they have been saying all winter long. IF the Feb. 5th to 19th pattern had returned on time, it would have shown up today. March 23rd minus 46 days puts us right around the beginning of that incredible cold stretch(FEB 5th) So, I'm not sure if he miss spoke but it doesn't seem like he did.

Any truth to this potential cold here in KC around Easter weekend. 

We had a very wet winter! Officially we were over 7 inches of total moisture (average is 4.45 inches) and we were much warmer than average. (outside that two week stretch that was very impressive, winter was very warm here in KC. I recorded 8.12 inches of rain/melted snow at my house on the NE side of KC. Well below average snow came in at 11.1 inches.

Happy Spring everyone!! 

I kinda agree with you and think the April cold switch-up actually aligns with the pattern better. I spoke of it in another post but I probably explained it poorly/wrote it badly.

 I though it was more in the 54-56 day range the whole time, personally. It's why I thought early or at least part of April, regardless of current modeling configurations will go back cold.

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