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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Starting to see continued evidence that cold is going to be the trend deeper into the longer ranges. Seeing a huge model fight there, but looking back a few days mentally at that bering sea wave pattern i mentioned previously in modeling as well as the leader-follower pattern of fronts that are the character mark of the cold pattern would at as in confirm cold on or after april 3 pretty well. I know that this is the March board so what is relevant to March is the "Leader" punch on 3/31 and possiblity of t-storms and rain, cool etc... for nearly everyone but probably the GLs. With the AO dip (although still barely pos) plus current PAC trends at equator and Bering tell me the same things. 

Anomalous still is the selected rainfall regions here and in Nebraska over the recent weeks/months being above average or in record territory. Uncommon in cold enso,  period. So are split flow and warm Januaries. 

Seeing drought develop in TX soon and the GLs is a very high possibility.

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My rain gauge for the 2 day event was about 2.75".  That is on top of the 5" rain from 10 days ago.  Many areas of Central Nebraska have set all time precipitation totals for March at between 7-8" or a little more.  What is interesting is that most of the 5" rain from earlier this month sank in with very little to no standing water.  This last rain has water standing everywhere.  

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Starting to see signs of our 1st 90F day in the extended right as we open up April. The avg 1st 90F day in PHX is April 3rd so it would be right on schedule.  Easter Weekend holiday looking balmy for a lot of peeps across the central CONUS.

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Yesterdays official high of 74 tied the record for March 23rd at Grand Rapids.

There were new record highs set yesterday at Muskegon 74. Lansing 73 and the high of 74 at Grand Rapids tied 1907 for the record. It also was the warmest March day since 2012 at Grand Rapids and Muskegon and since 2017 at Lansing. I have recorded 0.12” of rain so far today and the overnight low was a mild 53.

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Models are showing a brief cold shot around April 1st, but then warmth spreads across the upper midwest.  Several runs ago the GFS was teasing more cold in April, but that has disappeared.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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My, what a beauty of a storm shaping up for the lower lakes region later tonight into tomorrow....this thing is going to look nasty on radar and surely whip up some waves on Lake Michigan.  Send some more of these storms in the cold season next year mother nature!  Oh ya, usher down the cold air at the same time to...

 

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Meantime, out here in the SW parts of the country, the month of March has certainly delivered quite the amount of Snow up in the mountains.  The last system dumped 15" of powder up in Snowbowl ski resort.  They may be open till May this year like they did that one year in May of '19 which was their record longest season.

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The last in a series of storms to sweep through tomorrow and Saturday will dump even more snow in the mountains and beneficial rains across parts of the state.  It has been a welcomed pattern around here and will certainly green up a lot of vegetation that has been dried up.

Easter weekend blow torch is still looking mighty nice for ya'll out East!  #tasteofsummer

 

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The current March mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 40.5° At this time GR would be in line for the 12th warmest March at GR. The 39.5 mean at Muskegon would be good for the 9th warmest and the 40.3 at Lansing would be good for 10th warmest.  All locations are currently at one of the driest in history but that looks to change.  We will also have to wait to see where we end up on the sunshine as well. The current snow fall of just a trace at Grand Rapids and Lansing and the 0.1” at Muskegon are also one of the lowest in recorded history.

The over night low here at my house was 45 and that was also the overnight low at GRR. At this time it is cloudy and 46 here at my house. My Crocus are now in full bloom and I also now have some daffodils out as well and I have seen dandelions out on my walks.

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22 minutes ago, Sparky said:

The rain isn’t nearly as heavy as it appears on COD radar. It’s mostly light to moderate.

A day or two it looked like we wouldn't get anything, so this afternoon's expansive rain shield is a bit of a surprise.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

Check out this and other tweets by Nick Stewart. #DIXIE TORNADOES https://twitter.com/nstewcbs2/status/1375222887653773314?s=21

Chose to drive late into the night to get a head start as I saw this outbreak coming.  Drove through Birmingham and a lot of the areas along 65 that got slammed.  Glad I’m home safe and sound.  

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James SPann's property was hit.

As ABC 33/40 meteorologist James Spann covered the severe weather event unfolding across his state, a moment came when he had to briefly step off camera.

 

 

"The reason I had to step out, we had major damage at my house," Spann said upon returning to the broadcast a few minutes later. "My wife is OK, but the tornado came right through there and it's not good, it's bad. It's bad."

 

 

After sharing the news, he carried on with his coverage of the storm. A GoFundMe page aimed at raising money to help Spann has since been launched.

 

 

"James Spann is an incredible meteorologist from Alabama," said Andre Brooks, the creator of the page.

 

 

Spann later released a statement that his wife was in the home when it was hit by the tornado, but she was safe because she was in their in-home shelter.

 

 

"While we lost many trees, the home is intact and we will not have to 'rebuild,'" Spann said. "Please consider helping others across the state who have much more serious damage."

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Here is a fun fact. Here in Grand Rapids In 2007 the H/L for today was 75/65 and was the 2nd day of 3 days in a row with highs in the mid to upper 70's Between March 21st and April 3rd 2007 there were 10 days of 60 or better and 4 of the days were 70 or better and all of the days were 50 or better. Then from April 5th to the 12th there were 7 days with highs in the 30's two days the high was 30 and one day the high was 29 and in the 7 days 6.7" of snow fell including 4.6" on April 11th.

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9 hours ago, Sparky said:

Picked up 0.42” today. It’s pretty wet and squishy now. Hopefully get to hear some thunder tomorrow night.

I also received 0.42".  The grass is really greening up now.  We could use a stretch of sunny, dry weather.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I also received 0.42".  The grass is really greening up now.  We could use a stretch of sunny, dry weather.

The 12z GFS shows us picking up a half inch to an inch tonight into tomorrow morning, then dry for the next week plus.  Temperatures remain fairly cool (except for Monday) until next Friday and Saturday when things finally warm up.  

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Folks up north going out on a toasty note for the month, no doubt. Bout sums up the rest of this one. It has truly been an exceptionally variable and beautiful March here. It's what spring is all about. Dandelions are up and that all but guarantees, that major anomalous cold in any form is gone from here.

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The HRRR and NAM are now splitting my area tonight.  They have showers and storms lifting up into northern Iowa and also passing through southeast Iowa, with not much in between.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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55 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR and NAM are now splitting my area tonight.  They have showers and storms lifting up into northern Iowa and also passing through southeast Iowa, with not much in between.

A lot of the models still good for me.

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This is more of a summer forecast but I found it to be interesting where the mean Hurricane storm track from the Top 5 analogs off of the TTB site mirrors this years LRC almost a "T".  Gary Lezak is predicting big hits on the western side of FL and the GOM.

 

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I received another 0.36" of rain this morning.  I don't think anyone in Iowa got any thunder.  Thankfully, that should be the last rain for awhile.  I'm looking forward to the big warmup in about a week.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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All the clouds we've been stuck under for the last four days has killed our temperature.  We underperformed again today.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Had 2 fronts come through today. 
First one came through a little after 9 this morning. Turned the winds to NW, mixed the air up causing a little quicker bump in the morning temps, and we had gusty winds most of the afternoon.

2nd piece came through a little after 8 this evening. The winds had gone almost calm but have kicked back up. You can also see the humidity dropped quite a bit and with this secondary passage the pressure is rising much faster leading to the gusty winds again.

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We were finally expected to get some good sunshine today, but clouds have spread over the area yet again.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A few snow flakes fell here yesterday and I reported it as a trace of snow fall. So far for March 2021 the most snow that has fallen in just a trace and that has been reported on March 1st 15th, 16th and now the 28th the official snow fall for the month of March 2021 is just a trace. Depending on if and when any snow falls on Wednesday night March 2021 with tie 1945 with the 2nd lowest amount of snow fall for any March at Grand Rapids. In first place is 1910 when no snow was reported. Here at my house I did receive about 0.1" of snow on March 1st and that was enough to cover the ground. At the current time it is clear and a cold 23 here.

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It feels great to finally have warmer mornings here in the valley of the sun.  Gorgeous sun rise, clear skies and a slight breeze along with temps right around 60F.  Heading up to near 90F today but I think we'll miss our 1st official 90F day at Sky Harbor due to high clouds rolling in later today.  We won't have a problem later this week as the seasons 1st legit Spring time heat wave hits the region.   A string of low/mid 90's on tap starting Thu-Sun with a possible record tying 97F on Sat!

 

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