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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


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The midweek system is kinda turning to crap for Iowa.  Instead of a strong, wound-up system, at least the GFS, GFSv16, and GDPS have trended toward a weak system with just some showers along a cold front, then the action behind it gets suppressed.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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My family and I took a trip up to Las Vegas, NV for the weekend to explore nature and also the lights and fun activities on the strip and our hotel/resort.  We are staying at the Hilton Grand Vacation

Due to the high winds and chilly weather, we decided to go up into the NE part of the valley where it was warmer to visit the “Valley of Fire State Park.”  Boy, was it a crazy windy day with gusts up

Waking up to a little bit of snow this morning. Temp only made it down to 34 and is now 35.

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12z GFS looks nothing like this (40s and a little rain) but I'll cash out on the 6z for a season finale 😆

gfs_asnow_us_43.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Once again, sw Iowa is another world compared to east-central Iowa.  SW Iowa has already soared into the 60s again this morning while we are still in the 30s... about ten degrees behind yesterday's rise.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Cold is one thing, but average is still dreary and annoying.  Looking forward to a more active up and down pattern.  I'll take a 60 if it means a day of snow and then  back to 40's and 50's after.  Looks like we might get a cold rain/snow storm mid-month after a surge of warmth.  But then bounce back after.  

I should have said "wintry" month instead of just cold. 2014, 2008, and 1982 all featured cold and snowstorms with deep snow OTG inn March. It's a shoulder season month but those 3 years it leaned more towards winter.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This morning's Euro has mid 70s up to Omaha Tuesday.  Wednesday it has a few spots approaching 80º.  Other models are quicker with the front and would be much less warm in NE Wednesday.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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:(

This morning's Euro is even colder over here Friday than it is today.  The snow cover and east flow off the lakes is really hurting us.

838897752_iowa_tmpf(1).thumb.png.7967500ca995ee4e112c15e6e53d5022.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The midweek system is kinda turning to crap for Iowa.  Instead of a strong, wound-up system, at least the GFS, GFSv16, and GDPS have trended toward a weak system with just some showers along a cold front, then the action behind it gets suppressed.

I was hoping for some t. storms and heavy rain like Terry Swails post showed, but still to far out to know what will happen. 
 

Made it up to 50° here yesterday, but today is plain chilly with the brisk wind.

Edited by Sparky

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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On 3/3/2021 at 1:05 PM, Hawkeye said:

Somehow, the Cedar Rapids airport actually fell by one degree from noon to 1pm... now sitting at 41º.  Here in the city it's near 50º.

Satellite shows the city as a big dark spot because of all the snow melt.  Meanwhile, the airport is still in the middle of a bright white area in between Cedar Rapids and Iowa City where there is still good snow cover.

I’m sure it’s warmer and melts sooner in the cities, but I’ve noticed those darker blobs whenever there is snow cover and use those to determine where the larger towns are. Buildings, plowed streets, trees, etc don’t reflect as well. 

‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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31 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Made it up to 50° here yesterday, but today is plain chilly with the brisk wind.

Yes, today was much colder than yesterday... low 50s with no wind to low 40s and wind.  Friday might have less wind, but it'll still be chilly.  We don't really warm up again until Sunday.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yes, today was much colder than yesterday... low 50s with no wind to low 40s and wind.  Friday might have less wind, but it'll still be chilly.  We don't really warm up again until Sunday.

Some odd met conditions today at KDSM. Around 4PM- with a brisk E wind - vis started going down below 8SM in what appeared to be FU or Smoke. Than at 5PM , vis was between 5-6SM in what surely must have been FU???  No smell of smoke at all, but air quality was not good. My guess is the melting snow and strong E fetch produced some low lying moisture and an inversion up top. Very odd type of haze. And quite chilly. First day in about a week the NWS over forecasted the highs here in C.IA. image.png.d04a72ef0825beb4c5e60f68c1e9dd5c.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Still have a few big piles around town and I snapped this pic when it was 70 this afternoon. It’s felt bizarre to have some very warm weather and turn around there’s still patches of snow.

F762742D-49D0-4CA8-BD50-8703F8097CA2.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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 When I was out for my walk yesterday I was hit by some sap falling from several Maple trees so yes the sap in running here in west Michigan. The overnight low here at my house was a crisp 18 it looks like the official low at GRR will be 20. At this time it is clear here with a temperature of 21. While most of the snow is gone is the sunny locations there is still a lot of snow in the woods and of course there are still good sized snow piles.

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Good Friday all and a Great Friday it will indeed be! #manifest

Next week features the seasons warmest stretch of weather to date for a large portion of the Plains/MW out ahead of the storm system that is to take shape around the 10th/11th.  Models are dialing in on a ribbon of heavy precip somewhere from KS up in to the lower lakes region.

00z GFS...

 

gfs_apcpn_us_32.png

 

00z Euro...similar in agreement

 

1.png

 

Following this storm system, the idea of a stormy period (10th-16th) is setting up as we "Beware The Ides of March" during the mid-month period.  Winter doesn't want to let go easy as the EPO turns negative during this period.

00z EPS has been trending colder in the week 2 period...

2.png

 

The snow mean has been filling up and shifting south in recent days...I'd like to see ORD tack on at least 3" to hit or exceed the big 5-0 (50") mark for the season.  The EPS in not only the 6-10 but also in the 10-15 day range is showing some huge hits for the LRC's hot zone this cold season.  The volatile month of March is certainly showing its signs in the model world.

3.png

 

00z GEFS somewhat similar as well...

4.png

 

 

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19 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I should have said "wintry" month instead of just cold. 2014, 2008, and 1982 all featured cold and snowstorms with deep snow OTG inn March. It's a shoulder season month but those 3 years it leaned more towards winter.

Some more snowy and cold months of March happened in 1954, 1960, 1965 and 1970. In 1965 and 1970 the cold and snow lingered into April. And in 1975 there was a big time snow storm on April 2nd into the AM of the 3rd Grand Rapids had 10" in that storm and at the time I lived in Bay City where 16" fell along with high winds and a good old fashion thunder snowstorm.

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It seems there are more clouds spilling over eastern Iowa today than the NWS expected.  At least the wind is light.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another midday with 30s in east-central Iowa and 50s in sw Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The system mid next week has turned into a nothingburger for many around here.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not much change in the drought status despite the snow melt. I hope this isn't a mini 1936 situation and we're in for a scorching hot and dry summer. 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NE

 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Gonna pump the brakes on spring here in a couple if days is what things are starting to look like. Starting to see flashed of a possible mention worthy event down here brewing in the longer ranges. Whether true or not by that time, the cold still has merit. Will feel a bit more like winter again at mid month than spring.

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^^ Yep- AO really took a dive today in the long range--

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gifIf the NAO follows suit- things will get very interesting. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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And the MJO looks to be in a favorable phase (1) at these forecast values also. Favorable if you want Spring put on the backburner. If it goes to phase 2- katie bar the door. GFS MJO index forecast phase diagramMJO Temperature Composites and Significance for February - April period

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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36 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ Yep- AO really took a dive today in the long range--

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gifIf the NAO follows suit- things will get very interesting. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Yep. Overall trend is down, down, down...

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00z Euro weenieland teaser...

A bunch of energy gets left behind in the southwest next week and then becomes a big bowling ball that rolls east through the central US.

sn10_acc.us_c.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As @Hawkeye mentioned, the one storm that fits the LRC due around the 15th has been showing up on the various model runs.  While there are a wide variety of solutions, one thing that is for certain, I believe there will be a significant storm during this period late next weekend.

Why not???  It would be a fitting end to a great snow season for most of IA into NE???

 

 

3.png

 

Looking deeper into the 00z EPS, the model is starting to fill in the snow mean into parts of the Plains states.  At this range, the EPS isn't going to see such a big snow storm like the op runs will show.  I'm sure by Day 5 the EPS snow mean will look a lot different if these trends continue.  The support is there for a potential mid month Big Dog.  Is there one more storm on its heals???

1.png

 

Week 2 is looking like another late spring winter storm is on the table for those even south of I-80...what's even more "fitting" when looking at this map, is the continuation of the snow drought in the areas of the Dakotas/Prairies of SW Canada and of course our friend @FAR_Weather.  Amazing how this pattern just continues to cycle.

2.png

 

 

 

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Haven't checked in in a few days. I'm getting in Spring mood so can't say im super excited about more cold and snow potential. I have a lot of stuff planned so warmer weather would be nice. But hey....Waterloo needs like 13" to set the record so why not!

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12z Euro is rainier for eastern Nebraska, but I'll take it. CentralNeb gets buried. 

1615896000-2k7wCpQw5AA.png

1615896000-kPfqf7edYZ0.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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12Z Euro Control is loaded with potential-

image.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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With 6 days in the record books March 2021 is just about average temperature wise. Here at Grand Rapids the current mean is 31.3 and that is +0.2. So far the average H/L is 41.0/21.7 the current 30 year average is 39.0/21.7 so the days have been warmer than average but the lows have been colder than average. There has been just a trace of rain/snow. And the seasonal total remains at 42.8” and that is -21.3” At Muskegon the mean there so far 30.0 and that is a departure of -0.9 the H/L there has been 39.8/20.2 and there the H has been warmer than average and the low colder than the 30 year average. They also have had just a trace of rain/snow and their seasonal total remains at 41.6” and that is -43.4 below where they should be by March 7th The story is the same at Lansing where their mean of 30.3 is right at the 30 year average. There the days have been warmer than average with at 40.3 and the lows colder at 20.9. They have not had any rain or snow so far this month and the seasonal snow fall remains at 45.4” and that is +1.4”

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The temp has surged into the 60s already from central to southeast Iowa, but a southeast wind is slowing the warming a bit across east-central Iowa.  The wind should turn to the south later this afternoon.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The wind is really increasing from the south with gusts to 25 mph. in the last  half hr. or less and temps are finally over performing. Was 59° barely an hr ago and currently it’s 63°. Feels great!

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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GFS has no shortage of moisture. 2.16" of QPF in Lincoln w/ much of it falling as a heavy wet snow. Euro now like Kansas. 

1615896000-S8rd0w16cGM.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Warm weather in early March is usually just a tease in the midwest (unless we're talking about 2012). Not too surprised to see possible highs in the 30s coming into view.

1615118400-qGjmBIKnx7s.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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The Cedar Rapids airport officially hit 60º this afternoon.  In town we reached about 63º.  🏝️

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z GFS reminds me of a warmer March verision of the 1/25 storm this year lol

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Made it up to 89F yesterday which was 2 degrees shy of a record (91F)...high cirrus clouds obscured the suns rays so it didn't really feel all that bad.  Today will be the last 80 degree day till prob next week as we COOL down into the 60's mid/late week as the PAC storms swirls off the coast of Cali and into the SW bringing much welcomed moisture.  Hopefully this time around the valley scores some moisture.

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00z Euro dumping FEET of snow in the Rockies and along the Front Range which is typically what you see in late season storm set ups as such.

1.png

 

As we are getting closer to the period, the 00z EPS is starting to spread the snow shield as expected across the Plains states.  The EPS doesn't cut the storm as much as the Euro op is suggesting.  It appears there will be a strong late season Arctic HP to the north allowing to press the storm track south and track more easterly than north.  Thank the -EPO for those who want Snow.  I'd love to see these monster snow totals come to fruition.  Denver and the Front Range are in for a doozy of a storm.  These are are the type of storms I'd love to witness in the months of March in CO that literally "bowl" very slowly east into the Plains where it snows for 1-2 days straight.  I'll prob start a storm thread today/tomorrow as the models dial in on the anticipated powerful Mid-March Spring storm.

 

2.png

 

Edit: Many I-80 specials showing up per the latest 00z EPS members...is this the last???  Prob not, maybe one more storm on its heels a couple days later.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro dumping FEET of snow in the Rockies and along the Front Range which is typically what you see in late season storm set ups as such.

1.png

 

As we are getting closer to the period, the 00z EPS is starting to spread the snow shield as expected across the Plains states.  The EPS doesn't cut the storm as much as the Euro op is suggesting.  It appears there will be a strong late season Arctic HP to the north allowing to press the storm track south and track more easterly than north.  Thank the -EPO for those who want Snow.  I'd love to see these monster snow totals come to fruition.  Denver and the Front Range are in for a doozy of a storm.  These are are the type of storms I'd love to witness in the months of March in CO that literally "bowl" very slowly east into the Plains where it snows for 1-2 days straight.  I'll prob start a storm thread today/tomorrow as the models dial in on the anticipated powerful Mid-March Spring storm.

 

2.png

 

Edit: Many I-80 specials showing up per the latest 00z EPS members...is this the last???  Prob not, maybe one more storm on its heels a couple days later.

NWS and local mets already talking about the massive changes from this weekend on.  These type of storms are very common in March around here.  Some of our biggies ever have been in March.  We will never turn down moisture.

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8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS and local mets already talking about the massive changes from this weekend on.  These type of storms are very common in March around here.  Some of our biggies ever have been in March.  We will never turn down moisture.

Your prob the lucky few who will benefit from this one based off what I’m seeing. Hope your score Bigly.

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At the current time it is 56 here at my house.  With 60 looking like it is a good possibility I just checked and in the last 30  years the average date of the first 60 day at GR is March 7th so we are jus about average it that department. And while we are past the average last day of a 3” or more snow fall we are still well in the range of the latest date of April 14 (in the last 30 years) so now is the time to get out and enjoy the early spring weather we are having this week but as always “Beware of the Ides of March” or what I call always look out of a March or early April surprise snow fall.

 

 

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