March 2021 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather 4675]

12Z GFS 

[CentralNebWeather 4675]

Local mets saying there is a chance of record highs on Tuesday of 80 degrees if clouds are minimal.  Seen this play out many times in March that a snow storm follows warm temps like this.  

[FarmerRick 211]

Pretty sure I jinxed everyone by taking 2 sets of snow tires off my kids' cars yesterday.... 

[CentralNebWeather 4675]

12Z Euro with only about 1 foot less snow than the 0z for my area.  The temperature gradient looks to set up right over Central Nebraska.  Going to be a tough forecast, probably many changes in the next 5-6 days.

[Tom 16857]

Powerhouse March storm thread....

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/7460-313-316-powerful-march-storm/

[Grizzcoat 3772]

12Z CMC has temps flirting near record lows next Tuesday the 16th---

[Sparky 1769]

Made it up to 64° here yesterday and 67° today.

[Tom 16857]

ORD has had the driest start to any March (1st-8th) on record.  It has also been the sunniest start on record with 92% of possible sunshine !!  I'm sure that must feel great back home with temps in the 60's.  Boy, you have to wonder what the summer will look like this year bc there have been some very long dry spells and warm spells.  I got this feeling there is going to be a large heat dome building up across the Plains this year early on that will migrate and expand east.

Anyway, we made it up to 87F yesterday which will mark the end to the very warm temps we have been experiencing in the SW.  Looking forward to more cooler weather and perhaps the best chance this month at seeing some decent moisture for the state of AZ.

 

[westMJim 1852]

The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 57 and that that is the warmest it has been since November 20th. Here in my neck of the woods there is still snow in the woods and on the north side of buildings and of course the good old snow piles. My biggest snow piles are now down to less than 2 feet and could be mostly gone by tonight. The grass here is mostly brown so it will take some warm rains to green it up. I have some spring flowers showing up around the yard but nothing in bloom yet even the crocus are not in bloom yet. At this time it is mostly clear here and 32 with a good amount of frost.

[Stacsh 897]

Nothing but near to AN highs in my extended forecast.  Nice March so far.  

[Hawkeye 4575]

It's already 61º here.  DVN upped today's high to 67º.

[Hawkeye 4575]

It has always bugged me that the NWS, on the Iowa state list of current observations,
puts Cedar Rapids, Clinton, and Monticello in the "northeast Iowa" section instead of
"east-central Iowa".  You can't get more "east-central" than Cedar Rapids.


WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR IOWA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CST TUE MAR 09 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* - THESE STATIONS ARE NOT NWS STATIONS...THUS NOT UNDER NWS
QUALITY CONTROL.  THEY ALSO DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH
AS PRECIPITATION OR FOG.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031>034-043>046-091900-
   NORTHWEST IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CARROLL *      SUNNY     63  48  59 S28       29.86F
CHEROKEE *     SUNNY     63  41  45 S18G24    29.83F
DENISON *      SUNNY     64  45  48 S22G32    29.86F
LE MARS *      SUNNY     63  45  51 S29       29.76F
MAURICE *      FAIR      61  45  55 S21G29    29.77F
SHELDON *      SUNNY     63  45  51 S25       29.77F
SIOUX CITY     SUNNY     65  43  44 S17G26    29.79F
6HR MIN TEMP:  42; 6HR MAX TEMP:  65;

SPENCER        SUNNY     63  43  48 S22G35    29.82F
6HR MIN TEMP:  46; 6HR MAX TEMP:  63;

STORM LAKE *   SUNNY     63  45  51 S24G30      N/A
$$

IAZ055>058-069>071-079>083-090>094-091900-
   SOUTHWEST IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ATLANTIC *     SUNNY     64  43  45 S22G31    29.87F
AUDUBON *      SUNNY     64  45  48 S22G29    29.89F
CLARINDA *     SUNNY     68  45  42 S23G32    29.92F
COUNCIL BLFS * SUNNY     66  41  39 S21G28    29.84F
CRESTON *      SUNNY     66  43  42 S24       29.93F
HARLAN  *      SUNNY     64  45  48 S25       29.85F
LAMONI         SUNNY     66  42  41 S20G30    29.97F
6HR MIN TEMP:  49; 6HR MAX TEMP:  66;

RED OAK *      SUNNY     68  46  45 S23G31    29.89F
SHENANDOAH *   SUNNY     68  45  42 S24       29.88F
$$

IAZ047>049-059>061-072>074-084-091900-
   CENTRAL IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
AMES           SUNNY     65  40  39 S23G31    29.93F
6HR MIN TEMP:  44; 6HR MAX TEMP:  65;

ANKENY *       SUNNY     66  41  39 S17G28    29.95F
BOONE *        SUNNY     63  46  55 S20G30    29.91F
CHARITON *     SUNNY     64  45  48 S22G33    29.98F
DES MOINES     MOSUNNY   66  41  40 S23G32    29.94F
6HR MIN TEMP:  49; 6HR MAX TEMP:  66;

GRINNELL*      MOSUNNY   65  39  37 S22       30.01F
KNOXVILLE *    SUNNY     66  41  39 S21G32    29.98F
MARSHALLTOWN   SUNNY     62  41  46 S24G33    29.96F
6HR MIN TEMP:  40; 6HR MAX TEMP:  62;

NEWTON *       SUNNY     64  43  45 S25G31    29.96F
PELLA *        SUNNY     67  40  36 S18G29    30.00F
PERRY *        FAIR      63  42  46 S23G29    29.91F
$$

IAZ004>006-015-016-023>025-035-036-091900-
   NORTH CENTRAL IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ALGONA *       SUNNY     61  45  55 S28G37    29.85F
CLARION *      SUNNY     61  48  63 S28G35    29.90F
ESTHERVILLE    SUNNY     57  45  64 S25G36    29.83F
6HR MIN TEMP:  43; 6HR MAX TEMP:  57;

FORT DODGE *   SUNNY     62  41  46 S21G28    29.89F
MASON CITY     MOSUNNY   59  39  47 S25G37    29.93F
6HR MIN TEMP:  38; 6HR MAX TEMP:  59;

FOREST CITY *  FAIR      59  43  55 S23       29.90F
WEBSTER CITY * SUNNY     63  48  59 S24G33    29.88F
IOWA FALLS *   FAIR      62  38  42 S20G28    29.95F
$$

IAZ007>011-017>019-026>030-037>042-050>054-066-091900-
   NORTHEAST IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CEDAR RAPIDS   SUNNY     63  38  39 S24G31    30.03F
6HR MIN TEMP:  42; 6HR MAX TEMP:  64;

CHARLES CITY * MOSUNNY   59  41  51 S26G33    29.96F
CLINTON *      SUNNY     63  42  46 S20       30.13F
DECORAH *      SUNNY     61  37  41 S18G28    29.99F
DUBUQUE        SUNNY     60  39  45 S18       30.10F
6HR MIN TEMP:  41; 6HR MAX TEMP:  60;

MONTICELLO *   SUNNY     63  43  48 S21G26    30.08F
OELWEIN *      MOSUNNY   61  41  48 S24G31    30.01F
WATERLOO       MOSUNNY   62  39  42 S21G31    29.98F
6HR MIN TEMP:  43; 6HR MAX TEMP:  63;

$$

IAZ064-065-067-068-078-091900-
   EAST CENTRAL IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
DAVENPORT      SUNNY     66  38  35 S21G31    30.13F
IOWA CITY      SUNNY     68  39  34 S20       30.07F
6HR MIN TEMP:  41; 6HR MAX TEMP:  68;

MUSCATINE *    SUNNY     68  37  32 S24       30.09F
QUAD CITIES    SUNNY     69  36  29 S14G29    30.11F
6HR MIN TEMP:  44; 6HR MAX TEMP:  69;

$$

IAZ062-063-075>077-085>089-095>099-091900-
   SOUTHEAST IOWA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOSUNNY   68  39  34 S16       30.11F
6HR MIN TEMP:  42; 6HR MAX TEMP:  68;

FAIRFIELD *    SUNNY     66  41  39 S18G28    30.06F
FORT MADISON * SUNNY     66  41  39 S15G22    30.11F
KEOKUK *       SUNNY     66  41  39 S16G25    30.10F
OSKALOOSA *    FAIR      67  44  43 S22       30.02F
OTTUMWA        CLOUDY    64  41  42 S20G31    30.02F
6HR MIN TEMP:  45; 6HR MAX TEMP:  65;

WASHINGTON *   SUNNY     66  45  45 S20G26    30.05F
$$

[OmahaSnowFan 1380]

Once we get through tomorrow and then it cools down, I will have recorded 60+ for highs 9 straight days in March. Only the 1st of March was below 60 to start the first 10 days.

Average high and low as of yesterday(8th): 32.8/64.0

February ended at 8.2/27.2 so a 24.6 degree increase for lows and a 36.8(!!) increase for high temps this month

[Hawkeye 4575]

There's another system at the end of the Euro run that drops heavy snow here as well.  We just need to enjoy the current early to mid week warmth.  Even if we get no snow, it'll be much cooler for a while.

[Hawkeye 4575]

Iowa City is 71º at 2pm.

[Stacsh 897]

Some record highs being set in Michigan today.  

[OmahaSnowFan 1380]

74.8 for a high today after an overnight low of only 51.3.

Averaging 65.2 now for a high temp the first 9 days this month.

[Hawkeye 4575]

The CAMs (hrrr, nam) barely drop any rain here tonight, instead lifting storms into northeast Iowa.  I was really hoping for better from this system.

[OKwx2k4 4211]

Looking like March may be Nebraska's month. They're about to get all that snow that missed them for 4 years.

[Sparky 1769]

Made it up to 70° here for the first time since last fall.

It’s hard to find any snow now. The unusual thing is that most of the snowmelt soaked into the ground, to our benefit.

[Tom 16857]

Chicago tied the record high of 69F yesterday!  It's nice to see a lot of you are sharing in the warmth that has opened up March...but...the tides are about to turn starting this weekend out in the Plains.

[james1976 3974]

Waterloo record high of 69 yesterday. Cedar Rapids record high of 68.

This morning I was waken by thunder and lightning! Almost summerlike with a 5am temp at 55.

[westMJim 1852]

Yesterdays official high of 66 at Grand Rapids was the 2nd warmest high of record for any March 9th For today the record high is 69 set way back in 1894 in 2nd place for today is 65 set in 1955. If it stays above 41 up to midnight tonight today will set the warmest minimum for any March 10th the current record was set in in 2010 and again in 2013. The current temperature here with cloudy skies is 52.

[Tom 16857]

Gorgeous Sunrise from my front balcony looking northeast towards the mountains...

 

[Clinton 4399]

Very Spring like today.  On the edge of a slight risk for severe storms this evening, sounds like hail would be the primary threat.

[gimmesnow 327]

The rain pretty much missed me. My hill should live to ski another weekend!

[Hawkeye 4575]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Gorgeous Sunrise from my front balcony looking northeast towards the mountains...

 

I imagine they don't sell a lot of lawn mowers out there.

[CentralNebWeather 4675]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

I imagine they don't sell a lot of lawn mowers out there.

I was thinking the same thing.  Many times I get sick of mowing and have thought about field turf for a yard.

[CentralNebWeather 4675]

Just a typical March day in Nebraska temperature wise.  

 

[Hawkeye 4575]

I wish we could get this thick cloud shield out of here.  It's holding our temp back today.  We may be able to get some breaks by mid afternoon.  The increased humidity feels nice.  My anticipation is always high for the first surge of warm, moist spring air.

[westMJim 1852]

It is now cloudy and 66 here. My yard is now snow free as the last bit of the driveway snow pile has melted in the last hour. There are still snow piles in the area and in the woods there is still some patches of snow. The official reading at the airport is 64.

[snowstorm83 2023]

It's freaking windy out there today. Also already 74 at noon, could hit 80 if the cold front wasn't on our doorstep. 

[Sparky 1769]

51 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I wish we could get this thick cloud shield out of here.  It's holding our temp back today.  We may be able to get some breaks by mid afternoon.  The increased humidity feels nice.  My anticipation is always high for the first surge of warm, moist spring air.

More breaks would allow more instability for the narrow line of storms expected this evening. Here’s the latest outlook from the SPC.

 

[Sparky 1769]

Areas of the lawns that had deeper snow have remained greenish and are greening up just a hair elsewhere too. The hay fields have a green tint as well. 

[Clinton 4399]

1 hour ago, Sparky said:

More breaks would allow more instability for the narrow line of storms expected this evening. Here’s the latest outlook from the SPC.

 

The sun has broke out here from time to time. Temp is 72, looking forward to hearing the thunder later on.

[Sparky 1769]

Quite the temperature contrast across western Iowa attm.

 

[Clinton 4399]

Looks like some of you are about to get a severe thunderstorm watch

   Mesoscale Discussion 0150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern IA...southeast MN
   and west-central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101932Z - 102130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across parts of central IA
   and southeast MN this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to
   develop in the next 1-3 hours. A watch may be needed by 3pm.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating ahead of a surface low and cold
   front has resulted in temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to low
   70s F across much of IA this afternoon. Strong southerly low level
   flow has allowed low-to-mid 50s F surface dewpoints to spread
   northward across IA into southeast MN and west-central WI, aiding in
   weak destabilization. The strongest instability as of 19z resides
   over the western half of IA, where skies have cleared and
   temperatures are warmer. Cumulus across this area have deepened over
   the past hour, and some stronger reflectivity is now evident across
   far northwest IA/southwest MN. This activity is elevated on the cool
   side of a warm front stretching from northwest IA into west-central
   WI. While this activity could result in some small hail given steep
   midlevel lapse rates (7-8 C/km), any severe threat this far
   west/north should remain limited. 

   As the surface low continues to develop east/northeast this
   afternoon, additional heating is expected in broken cloudiness
   across central IA into southeast MN, resulting in weakening
   inhibition. This will coincide with stronger upper forcing ejecting
   across the region with the upper shortwave trough and additional
   surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-3
   hours. Favorably curved low-level hodographs are apparent in
   forecast soundings as well as in VWP data from KARX. While
   instability will remain weak through this evening, strong effective
   shear coupled with backed low level flow should support a couple of
   storms with supercell structures capable of all severe hazards. With
   time, any discrete cells that develop are expected to become more
   linear during the evening as the cold front surges eastward and
   deep-layer flow becomes more parallel to the surface boundary. This
   could result in increasing potential for a few strong-to-severe wind
   gusts into the nighttime hours.

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 03/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

 

 

[james1976 3974]

31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like some of you are about to get a severe thunderstorm watch

   Mesoscale Discussion 0150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern IA...southeast MN
   and west-central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101932Z - 102130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across parts of central IA
   and southeast MN this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to
   develop in the next 1-3 hours. A watch may be needed by 3pm.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating ahead of a surface low and cold
   front has resulted in temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to low
   70s F across much of IA this afternoon. Strong southerly low level
   flow has allowed low-to-mid 50s F surface dewpoints to spread
   northward across IA into southeast MN and west-central WI, aiding in
   weak destabilization. The strongest instability as of 19z resides
   over the western half of IA, where skies have cleared and
   temperatures are warmer. Cumulus across this area have deepened over
   the past hour, and some stronger reflectivity is now evident across
   far northwest IA/southwest MN. This activity is elevated on the cool
   side of a warm front stretching from northwest IA into west-central
   WI. While this activity could result in some small hail given steep
   midlevel lapse rates (7-8 C/km), any severe threat this far
   west/north should remain limited. 

   As the surface low continues to develop east/northeast this
   afternoon, additional heating is expected in broken cloudiness
   across central IA into southeast MN, resulting in weakening
   inhibition. This will coincide with stronger upper forcing ejecting
   across the region with the upper shortwave trough and additional
   surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next 1-3
   hours. Favorably curved low-level hodographs are apparent in
   forecast soundings as well as in VWP data from KARX. While
   instability will remain weak through this evening, strong effective
   shear coupled with backed low level flow should support a couple of
   storms with supercell structures capable of all severe hazards. With
   time, any discrete cells that develop are expected to become more
   linear during the evening as the cold front surges eastward and
   deep-layer flow becomes more parallel to the surface boundary. This
   could result in increasing potential for a few strong-to-severe wind
   gusts into the nighttime hours.

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 03/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

 

 

The sun has broke out and its 64 and windy. Kinda feels like something is brewing. 

[james1976 3974]

Tornado Watch just issued!

[St Paul Storm 4028]

It’s only 43F here with vivid lightning. Tornado watch issued for south metro. Severe t-storms into tonight changing to snow. Spring was fun while it lasted. 

[St Paul Storm 4028]

The season’s first tornado warning just west of Fairbault, MN. 

[St Paul Storm 4028]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning here now. Wow this escalated quickly. Absolutely pouring buckets. My gutters are overflowing. 

[OmahaSnowFan 1380]

75.2 at 1p and now down to 43.7 at 640p.

Started warm and a bit humid with dews in the middle 50s, dry line moved through and dropped dews to the mid 30s, then cold front moved through and dropped the temps. 
Earlier when it was warmer we had SW winds gusting up to 60 mph!

[Sparky 1769]

Rain rate (3” to 4”> for about three minutes) was more intense than I expected, but it didn’t last long. Some lightning n thunder as well with wind gusts around 40.

Over third of an inch so far. 

Edited March 11 by Sparky

[Hawkeye 4575]

9 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Rain rate was more intense than I expected, but it didn’t last long. Some lightning n thunder as well with wind gusts near 40.

I noticed there was a heavier part of the line moving through your area.  A weaker part moved through Cedar Rapids, but one decent, but tiny, cell passed through at the end and produced a 2-minute downpour.  That's really all I was hoping for from this.  I finished with 0.13" for the day.

[snowstorm83 2023]

Meanwhile the wind today was making my house come undone LOL. Good thing it’s the landlords problem and not ours.

[Grizzcoat 3772]

Buddy of mine has cabin near Hackensack,Mn ( about 90 min N of Brainerd) and is currently reporting TSSN!!

[Sparky 1769]

I ended up with 0.50” total for today. (Only 0.03” of it this morning.)  I was expecting only a tenth or so, but it was nice to get the dirty lawns hosed/rinsed off, which is what I was hoping for.

[westMJim 1852]

For the 2nd day in a row the official high of 67 yesterday came in as the 2nd warmest high for the date. The official low for March 10 of 49 is the warmest low for the date and one of the warmer lows for the month of March. At this time it is mostly cloudy here and the temperature is now down to 52 here. I recorded .05" of rain fall here.

[FAR_Weather 5206]

Currently in Terre Haute, IN. Had a decent thunderstorm that caused quite a bit of dynamic cooling. 53°F.