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March 2021 Observations and Discussion


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52 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

You can definitely tell that "Snow Machine v16" ran the 12z. :lol:

Throws down an April central plains monster at the end. Wow.

Will definitely be some cooler and variable weather in that time. There's a scheduled cold shot around that time from current patterning and looking at the BSR type stuff, the wave train out there is basically a metronome right now and as long as the weak side keeps dumping and pumping, it will flex out and or lock the trough over the US. 

Nice winter pattern in the wrong season. Lol.

Warmer than avg may be the justifiable lean for the next bit over a good amt of the conus and central US, but it wouldn't surprise me to see any real warmth kicked down the road. 

My call, variable to cold later on.

In the Great lakes, the real warmth is happening now.   It will get colder of course, but already seeing signs any cold shots will be brief with overall warmth reigning over the region in the Great Lakes in the long term.  

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My family and I took a trip up to Las Vegas, NV for the weekend to explore nature and also the lights and fun activities on the strip and our hotel/resort.  We are staying at the Hilton Grand Vacation

Due to the high winds and chilly weather, we decided to go up into the NE part of the valley where it was warmer to visit the “Valley of Fire State Park.”  Boy, was it a crazy windy day with gusts up

Waking up to a little bit of snow this morning. Temp only made it down to 34 and is now 35.

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Steady light rain/drizzle for a while now with some heavier bursts, nothing impressive so far. On another note, the lowest temp of the month will almost certainly be 21, which is quite warm. We're doomed for single digits in April. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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13 hours ago, tStacsh said:

In the Great lakes, the real warmth is happening now.   It will get colder of course, but already seeing signs any cold shots will be brief with overall warmth reigning over the region in the Great Lakes in the long term.  

I meant to come back on later and sort of elaborate on that but I never made it back. Sort of an al Nino pattern for awhile is what you're speaking of and you're correct. The GLs and Upper Plains to Canada are going to get mighty toasty. The cold anomalies will be underneath.

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38 degrees and raining sideways.  Hastings disco yesterday mentioned what a perfect set up this storm is for precipitation in our area.  Some years in March there would have been cold air involved, so yesterday and today would have been one large snowstorm or blizzard.  Could get another 0.5-1.0" today so the forecast amounts of 2-3" are going to be spot on.  

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This month is turning out better than I originally thought it would.  If the 00z Euro is right, there will be several more rounds of snow/rain for the SW drought stricken regions through this weekend before a long period of real summer time warmth builds in the SW.  Bring it!

 

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Yesterday’s official high of 69 tied 1910 for the 5th warmest March 22nd but it was well below the record high of 85 set in 2012 and the 82 that was reached in 1938. Here at my house I had a high of 71 yesterday. The official overnight low at GRR was 45 If that holds until midnight today will have the 4th warmest minimum for any March 23rd The overnight low here at my house was 43. The record high for today at Grand Rapids is 74 set in 1907 and in 2nd place is 71 in 1910. IF the high reaches the low 70’s today GR would set a new record. At this time it is cloudy and 47 here and a warmer 52 at the airport.

 

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up to .81" of rain so far from this system and now 4.26" of rain for the month.

So far we're averaging 8.4 degrees above normal for the month and 20/22 days have been above average. The 2 days that weren't above average were only 1 degree below average.

The last time it snowed here was February 21st. Will be curious to see if that's the last time this season, which is pretty darn early for last snowfall. After the rain ends tomorrow morning, highs back in the 50s and then 60s by this weekend

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Looks like we might have a few thundershowers knocking on our door in a little bit here in Omaha... (maybe mother nature can grant me some much-needed thunder and lightning for my birthday today)

image.png.dfeebce25ed2d453d46a96fa7c853546.png

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It is now up to 74 here at my house. The official reading at GRR is now up to 71. That official 71 ties 1910 for the 2nd warmest March 23rd in recorded history at GR. 74 is the record set in 1907.

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35 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Looks like we might have a few thundershowers knocking on our door in a little bit here in Omaha... (maybe mother nature can grant me some much-needed thunder and lightning for my birthday today)

image.png.dfeebce25ed2d453d46a96fa7c853546.png

Happy B-Day Bryan!

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It looked like a few bands of heavy rain moved through on radar this morning into early afternoon, but at the ground it's much lighter.  Even the deep orange color was only moderate rain.  I've picked up 0.36" so far.  Maybe I can get a rumble of thunder later.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some sun is actually poking out this afternoon. Only 1.42” at the airport so far, which might be it. A little under forecast, but still a solid drought buster.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Warm April?

 

GFS showing multiple freezes after April 2nd and a chilly looking pattern. Been flashing this for the last few days. 

 

KSHB's Jeff Penner, also a LRC partner mentioned that the part of the pattern that occurred FEB. 5th to the 19th will cycle back through. Only problem with that statement is that it goes against their 46 day pattern they have been saying all winter long. IF the Feb. 5th to 19th pattern had returned on time, it would have shown up today. March 23rd minus 46 days puts us right around the beginning of that incredible cold stretch(FEB 5th) So, I'm not sure if he miss spoke but it doesn't seem like he did.

Any truth to this potential cold here in KC around Easter weekend. 

We had a very wet winter! Officially we were over 7 inches of total moisture (average is 4.45 inches) and we were much warmer than average. (outside that two week stretch that was very impressive, winter was very warm here in KC. I recorded 8.12 inches of rain/melted snow at my house on the NE side of KC. Well below average snow came in at 11.1 inches.

Happy Spring everyone!! 

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A really tame storm. Actually not really a storm as there was no lightning at all. A decent little downpour and wind shift is about it.
I forgot to mention I heard a we bit of small hail hitting the windows.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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I got a real nice downpour this evening.  My total rainfall today is 0.75".

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

Warm April?

 

GFS showing multiple freezes after April 2nd and a chilly looking pattern. Been flashing this for the last few days. 

 

KSHB's Jeff Penner, also a LRC partner mentioned that the part of the pattern that occurred FEB. 5th to the 19th will cycle back through. Only problem with that statement is that it goes against their 46 day pattern they have been saying all winter long. IF the Feb. 5th to 19th pattern had returned on time, it would have shown up today. March 23rd minus 46 days puts us right around the beginning of that incredible cold stretch(FEB 5th) So, I'm not sure if he miss spoke but it doesn't seem like he did.

Any truth to this potential cold here in KC around Easter weekend. 

We had a very wet winter! Officially we were over 7 inches of total moisture (average is 4.45 inches) and we were much warmer than average. (outside that two week stretch that was very impressive, winter was very warm here in KC. I recorded 8.12 inches of rain/melted snow at my house on the NE side of KC. Well below average snow came in at 11.1 inches.

Happy Spring everyone!! 

I kinda agree with you and think the April cold switch-up actually aligns with the pattern better. I spoke of it in another post but I probably explained it poorly/wrote it badly.

 I though it was more in the 54-56 day range the whole time, personally. It's why I thought early or at least part of April, regardless of current modeling configurations will go back cold.

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I picked up another 0.55” this evening for a total of 0.85” today. Not to shabby. The earthworms 🪱 are out by the thousands, or more like the millions. 

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Starting to see continued evidence that cold is going to be the trend deeper into the longer ranges. Seeing a huge model fight there, but looking back a few days mentally at that bering sea wave pattern i mentioned previously in modeling as well as the leader-follower pattern of fronts that are the character mark of the cold pattern would at as in confirm cold on or after april 3 pretty well. I know that this is the March board so what is relevant to March is the "Leader" punch on 3/31 and possiblity of t-storms and rain, cool etc... for nearly everyone but probably the GLs. With the AO dip (although still barely pos) plus current PAC trends at equator and Bering tell me the same things. 

Anomalous still is the selected rainfall regions here and in Nebraska over the recent weeks/months being above average or in record territory. Uncommon in cold enso,  period. So are split flow and warm Januaries. 

Seeing drought develop in TX soon and the GLs is a very high possibility.

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My rain gauge for the 2 day event was about 2.75".  That is on top of the 5" rain from 10 days ago.  Many areas of Central Nebraska have set all time precipitation totals for March at between 7-8" or a little more.  What is interesting is that most of the 5" rain from earlier this month sank in with very little to no standing water.  This last rain has water standing everywhere.  

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Starting to see signs of our 1st 90F day in the extended right as we open up April. The avg 1st 90F day in PHX is April 3rd so it would be right on schedule.  Easter Weekend holiday looking balmy for a lot of peeps across the central CONUS.

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Yesterdays official high of 74 tied the record for March 23rd at Grand Rapids.

There were new record highs set yesterday at Muskegon 74. Lansing 73 and the high of 74 at Grand Rapids tied 1907 for the record. It also was the warmest March day since 2012 at Grand Rapids and Muskegon and since 2017 at Lansing. I have recorded 0.12” of rain so far today and the overnight low was a mild 53.

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Models are showing a brief cold shot around April 1st, but then warmth spreads across the upper midwest.  Several runs ago the GFS was teasing more cold in April, but that has disappeared.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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My, what a beauty of a storm shaping up for the lower lakes region later tonight into tomorrow....this thing is going to look nasty on radar and surely whip up some waves on Lake Michigan.  Send some more of these storms in the cold season next year mother nature!  Oh ya, usher down the cold air at the same time to...

 

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Meantime, out here in the SW parts of the country, the month of March has certainly delivered quite the amount of Snow up in the mountains.  The last system dumped 15" of powder up in Snowbowl ski resort.  They may be open till May this year like they did that one year in May of '19 which was their record longest season.

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The last in a series of storms to sweep through tomorrow and Saturday will dump even more snow in the mountains and beneficial rains across parts of the state.  It has been a welcomed pattern around here and will certainly green up a lot of vegetation that has been dried up.

Easter weekend blow torch is still looking mighty nice for ya'll out East!  #tasteofsummer

 

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nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh21-38.gif

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The current March mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 40.5° At this time GR would be in line for the 12th warmest March at GR. The 39.5 mean at Muskegon would be good for the 9th warmest and the 40.3 at Lansing would be good for 10th warmest.  All locations are currently at one of the driest in history but that looks to change.  We will also have to wait to see where we end up on the sunshine as well. The current snow fall of just a trace at Grand Rapids and Lansing and the 0.1” at Muskegon are also one of the lowest in recorded history.

The over night low here at my house was 45 and that was also the overnight low at GRR. At this time it is cloudy and 46 here at my house. My Crocus are now in full bloom and I also now have some daffodils out as well and I have seen dandelions out on my walks.

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22 minutes ago, Sparky said:

The rain isn’t nearly as heavy as it appears on COD radar. It’s mostly light to moderate.

A day or two it looked like we wouldn't get anything, so this afternoon's expansive rain shield is a bit of a surprise.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

Check out this and other tweets by Nick Stewart. #DIXIE TORNADOES https://twitter.com/nstewcbs2/status/1375222887653773314?s=21

Chose to drive late into the night to get a head start as I saw this outbreak coming.  Drove through Birmingham and a lot of the areas along 65 that got slammed.  Glad I’m home safe and sound.  

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James SPann's property was hit.

As ABC 33/40 meteorologist James Spann covered the severe weather event unfolding across his state, a moment came when he had to briefly step off camera.

 

 

"The reason I had to step out, we had major damage at my house," Spann said upon returning to the broadcast a few minutes later. "My wife is OK, but the tornado came right through there and it's not good, it's bad. It's bad."

 

 

After sharing the news, he carried on with his coverage of the storm. A GoFundMe page aimed at raising money to help Spann has since been launched.

 

 

"James Spann is an incredible meteorologist from Alabama," said Andre Brooks, the creator of the page.

 

 

Spann later released a statement that his wife was in the home when it was hit by the tornado, but she was safe because she was in their in-home shelter.

 

 

"While we lost many trees, the home is intact and we will not have to 'rebuild,'" Spann said. "Please consider helping others across the state who have much more serious damage."

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Here is a fun fact. Here in Grand Rapids In 2007 the H/L for today was 75/65 and was the 2nd day of 3 days in a row with highs in the mid to upper 70's Between March 21st and April 3rd 2007 there were 10 days of 60 or better and 4 of the days were 70 or better and all of the days were 50 or better. Then from April 5th to the 12th there were 7 days with highs in the 30's two days the high was 30 and one day the high was 29 and in the 7 days 6.7" of snow fell including 4.6" on April 11th.

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9 hours ago, Sparky said:

Picked up 0.42” today. It’s pretty wet and squishy now. Hopefully get to hear some thunder tomorrow night.

I also received 0.42".  The grass is really greening up now.  We could use a stretch of sunny, dry weather.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I also received 0.42".  The grass is really greening up now.  We could use a stretch of sunny, dry weather.

The 12z GFS shows us picking up a half inch to an inch tonight into tomorrow morning, then dry for the next week plus.  Temperatures remain fairly cool (except for Monday) until next Friday and Saturday when things finally warm up.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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