Jump to content
The Weather Forums

March 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

They are part of the native vegetation on the Willamette Valley floor and you will find them mixed in with garry oak in oak savannas. They are drought resistant and thrive in a massive annual precipitation range. Wikipedia says they are scattered on the west slope of the Cascades and Sierra.

And they will attempt to smother any vegetation below their canopy with leaves that drop during the summer months.  On a cool note Robins love flipping the dead leaves for insects.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 4.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I promise there are tears of joy under these glasses. @MR.SNOWMIZERis arguably the most gracious person on this board. 🙏🏻 I cannot thank you enough for this. Following the weather provides a type of p

Friends, This is OT so please forgive me for disrupting your weather discussions. I just want to provide another update since my last post few weeks back about my mother contracting covid. U

52F and beautiful in downtown Springfield. If someone needs a badass to install a weather station, then call up @SilverFallsAndrew because I can’t thank him enough for helping me with this. And @

Posted Images

Both the GFS and parallel GFS show a warm weekend next week... like the 12Z ECMWF showed.

We might end up with a mid-March warm spell instead of a snowstorm.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, T-Town said:

Interesting. I can only recall ever seeing them right at the water’s edge on the Puget Sound but Wikipedia says they are common in the Oregon coast range. So maybe yours is native to the area. 

We have lots of them on the South Island and Gulf islands but you see most of them in rocky and poor soil areas closer to the water.  They are pretty much known as Arbutus trees north of the border.  I’m not sure if I’ve ever heard anyone call it a Madrone although I do know the name.   Pretty extensive die off in the species in recent years as they are very susceptible to fungal attacks, especially when stressed.  It makes excellent firewood when seasoned properly.  Heavy dense wood that burns hot and slow. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Both the GFS and parallel GFS show a warm weekend next week... like the 12Z ECMWF showed.

We might end up with a mid-March warm spell instead of a snowstorm.

Sorry I think we need to consider the GEM. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sorry I think we need to consider the GEM. 

Go right ahead... anything can happen.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Go right ahead... anything can happen.  

I think we should have all the facts. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we should have all the facts. 

I don't normally check the GEM.

  • scream 1
  • Downvote 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't normally check the GEM.

Yet you obsessively post the EPS. Bahahahahhahahahahhahahahahhaaahahahhahahahahahhahhahahahahahaa

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yet you obsessively post the EPS. Bahahahahhahahahahhahahahahhaaahahahhahahahahahhahhahahahahahaa

Yes.  Its the best model tool we have available.   Feeling OK Andrew?

 

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We have lots of them on the South Island and Gulf islands but you see most of them in rocky and poor soil areas closer to the water.  They are pretty much known as Arbutus trees north of the border.  I’m not sure if I’ve ever heard anyone call it a Madrone although I do know the name.   Pretty extensive die off in the species in recent years as they are very susceptible to fungal attacks, especially when stressed.  It makes excellent firewood when seasoned properly.  Heavy dense wood that burns hot and slow. 

My parents lost 3 giant Arbutus trees in their yard due to fungus. I think they are more vulnerable when overwatered, quite different from Garry Oaks in that respect, even if they prefer the same habitat.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes.  Its the best model tool we have available.   Feeling OK Andrew?

 

Hahahaha I can’t believe this wait!!! Wait!!! You don’t check the GEM?! Gotcha!!!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hahahaha I can’t believe this wait!!! Wait!!! You don’t check the GEM?! Gotcha!!!

I think you are having a melt down here.

I have checked the GEM before... but its pretty rare.  I don't normally check it.   I looked at it when it was showing below zero temps in San Diego in mid-February.   It was so close to being right.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you are having a melt down here.

I have checked the GEM before... but its pretty rare.  I don't normally check it.   I looked at it when it was showing below zero temps in San Diego in mid-February.   It was so close to being right.  👍

I think the one melting down is the one who just dismissed an entire country!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think the one melting down is the one who just dismissed an entire country!

Great discussion.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Great discussion.   

Just how you like it. Many blessings. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just how you like it. Many blessings. 

No.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No.   

Oh my. Made reservations yet for Pasco? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh my. Made reservations yet for Pasco? 

Debating between Aberdeen, Hermiston, or Pasco.    

  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, TT-SEA said:

Debating between Aberdeen, Hermiston, or Pasco.    

Golf and BBQ in Aberdeen with Chris.

  • lol 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

00Z ECMWF shows a cool weekend with scattered showers... but partly sunny across the entire area both days.

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Not if he treats me like he treats Jim, but... if he brings flowers, maybe.

Good Lord.     If you want to make big claims then its fair to challenge some of them.   Nothing personal.    

And I might just bring you flowers for some BBQ!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord.     If you want to make big claims then its fair to challenge some of them.   Nothing personal.    

And I might just bring you flowers for some BBQ!  

🤣 you D**n near challenged every post he made today.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm moderately intrigued about the prospects for mid month.  The GEM looks just like the 18z parallel GFS looked at day 10.  There are also a number of cold ensemble members tonight.  Certainly a window of opportunity.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Phil said:

There are a number of inaccuracies in that article. For one, a “shutdown” of the GS (whatever that means) didn’t lead to a “15°C cooling in Europe” at the start of the Holocene. LOL.

In fact the GS itself isn’t all that important for European climate..much like the PNW it’s merely the presence of the ocean upstream that moderates the climate.

Further, there’s no evidence for these massive freshwater pulses that have supposedly “shut down” the Gulf Stream. There is, however, plenty of evidence (both via proxies and observationally) that significant -NAO regimes can and have crippled the GS and AMOC, via the suppression of the Atlantic subtropical high reversal of winds over portions of the NATL integral for overturning.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/phoc/47/11/jpo-d-17-0064.1.xml

We saw this happen (on a small scale) in 2010 after that massive -NAO winter. The GS speed hit a record low that spring/summer. If that regime at lasted a decade, then yeah things would probably look quite different on the climate front right now (good analog for that is what happened in the 1950s/60s).

People scratch their heads at what seem like massive, abrupt climate shifts that require some massive, instantaneous trigger like a freshwater pulse, when what they’re really observing is a peripherally-forced abrupt change in atmospheric circulation as a quasi-unstable, nonlinear response. It’s no coincidence the “climate patterns” associated with the GS/AMOC perfectly mimic those associated with the NAO.

I get it, I just found it amusing that the NYT among other "outlets" would publish such a baseless article, obviously in an attempt to garner clicks/view.

But I digress though as there are, unfortunately a slew of idiotic people out there that will  believe anything, case in point, yes?

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

🤣 you D**n near challenged every post he made today.

Not true.   I challenged one assertion.    The rest was conversation on the same topic.  He was challenging me too and that is fair.   He made many other posts today.   And it still looks pretty benign and quiet to me after seeing the 00Z runs.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Tim has reached offseason mode!

43F with increasing clouds.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, JBolin said:

I get it, I just found it amusing that the NYT among other "outlets" would publish such a baseless article, obviously in an attempt to garner clicks/view.

But I digress though as there are, unfortunately a slew of idiotic people out there that will  believe anything, case in point, yes?

Yup pretty much. Media and science generally don’t get along without ulterior motives.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Link said:

The let's all pick on Tim weather forum. :( 

Just as I think of WWII as the “Let’s all pick on Hitler” war. :(

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not true.   I challenged one assertion.    The rest was conversation on the same topic.  He was challenging me too and that is fair.   He made many other posts today.   And it still looks pretty benign and quiet to me after seeing the 00Z runs.

I am by far not the only one that disagrees with this.  Have a great Friday!

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am by far not the only one that disagrees with this.  Have a great Friday!

Double negative there. :)     

I did challenge just one assertion... but I do apologize for dragging it out yesterday.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Jesse said:

Just as I think of WWII as the “Let’s all pick on Hitler” war. :(

I have heard that the best way to win any debate is to invoke Hitler... nice work here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprisingly warm morning out here... 54 in North Bend right now.  The afternoon will be much cooler when the rain returns. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Phil said:

Perfect BBQ weather @ Tim’s house.

 

3D66F8C4-B58F-4099-8F5A-757C9005226A.jpeg

Thursday looks interesting with 50 degrees and snow.  😁

It actually looks like a decent period of weather ahead here for March.   Monday-Wednesday will probably end up almost totally dry with all the action down south in OR and CA.  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Continues to look like any precip that falls Sunday will be snow here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z GFS looks more crashy at day 7.

Parallel GFS too.

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

GEM IS A GEM

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

62 at Hermiston. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...