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March 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Another 60 at PDX. 4th one this month with at least two more to go. Sixth one year to date. We’re really racking them up already.

ECMWF says you will probably pick up another 4 next week... maybe 5.

Of course the 12Z ECMWF showed a high of 54 at PDX yesterday and 57 today.    So PDX seems to be subjected to the same ECMWF cold bias it has in the Puget Sound region.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I promise there are tears of joy under these glasses. @MR.SNOWMIZERis arguably the most gracious person on this board. 🙏🏻 I cannot thank you enough for this. Following the weather provides a type of p

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Beautiful day! Haven't had a chance to look at any models since the snowstorm last month but the weather looks gorgeous through Saturday. 🌞

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1615464000-1615464000-1616760000-20.gif

Looks like some ridging starts to develop over the West during the last week of March.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF cold bias again... the 12Z run showed a high of 50 in Seattle today.  It was 50 there at noon and currently 51 in North Bend.

Good reminder for this upcoming warm season to add a few degrees to the highs when it's sunny outside. Always seems like a safe bet, not sure why they haven't fixed it by now. 

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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9 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Good reminder for this upcoming warm season to add a few degrees to the highs when it's sunny outside. Always seems like a safe bet, not sure why they haven't fixed it by now. 

It's a real thing and quite consistent. 

It's 55 at SEA... a few hours ago the ECMWF said it would only get to 50 there today.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

April of 2016 was basically a summer month.    I don't expect that to happen again for a long time.  

Seattle pulled off a high of 88 near the middle of April that year. Ridiculous.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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18Z ECMWF still brings the trough inland on Sunday morning... but it looks weaker and warmer on this run.

Much less snow on this run through Monday morning... even for the mountains.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-5809600 (2).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

FAB9A01F-6E4A-4C4A-9742-C44EA11AFB43.thumb.jpeg.8a7e91c005c981c3de262a698dba697f.jpeg

Actual pic of cherry blossoms this time. Beautiful day.

Looks very springy! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

FAB9A01F-6E4A-4C4A-9742-C44EA11AFB43.thumb.jpeg.8a7e91c005c981c3de262a698dba697f.jpeg

Actual pic of cherry blossoms this time. Beautiful day.

That’s an Asian plum tree. Cherries generally don’t bloom until late March into April.

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Just now, Jesse said:

59/31 day here. Just barely missed 60 but I’m sure we’ll hit it tomorrow and Saturday.

 

bag meme.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like PDX may have hit 62 between hours. If so it would be the warmest day of the year so far.

Should be interesting to see if they can pick up a freeze tonight. It’s been in the forecast for awhile but everything has been running warmer than forecast this week.

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4 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m pretty sure that staff are supposed to report, if possible, to their closest school in the district.  Not necessarily the one they typically work at. And if children show up they can’t really turn them away.  It was that way for awhile but it might have changed again.  

 Do you think that story about the boy found half frozen was real or satire you can only find on Reddit?

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1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Good reminder for this upcoming warm season to add a few degrees to the highs when it's sunny outside. Always seems like a safe bet, not sure why they haven't fixed it by now. 

They'll have to fix the downvoting problem first.

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53/36 today. Noticed the DP here has went from 35 to 29 over the last 2 hours...could be the chilliest night tonight out of this stretch but some high clouds are coming in from the north. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

This VP200 standing wave is d**n beautiful. Have to go back to 2011 to find anything like it.

12z EPS:

 

93263228-EA79-45CB-96FB-C36EEA79133D.png

Yet we are going to be stuck in 2015 ridge land according to long range. :(

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah it’s usually dry through April, tho that gulf tongue often starts to lick us later in April.

There’s a mini fire season in the downslope areas from Jan-Apr, but yeah not even comparable to the western fire season. Also the trees here aren’t as flammable. 

Aren't as flammable?  Aren't as flammable. 🤔 Trees are trees no matter where you go. That was a pretty bizarre statement.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

That’s an Asian plum tree. Cherries generally don’t bloom until late March into April.

My bad. Kinda looks like a cherry tree but I guess it isn't. Thanks 👍

Looking online they are often confused and there are ways to tell the difference, and it seems like one of them is smell. Plums have a sweet smell and cherries don't. The trees I walked by had a sweet smell.

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4 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m pretty sure that staff are supposed to report, if possible, to their closest school in the district.  Not necessarily the one they typically work at. And if children show up they can’t really turn them away.  It was that way for awhile but it might have changed again.  

Also how does that work for them to go to a school they don't normally work at? They'll be unfamiliar with it completely as each school has it's own 'vibe' or so to speak.

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5 minutes ago, Link said:

Aren't as flammable?  Aren't as flammable. 🤔 Trees are trees no matter where you go. That was a pretty bizarre statement.

Uhh no. Some tree species burn easier than others, and native vegetation is different in different areas. This is why Australian bushfires are so bad - eucalyptus oil is flammable.

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6 minutes ago, Link said:

Yet we are going to be stuck in 2015 ridge land according to long range. :(

This is incorrect.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

My bad. Kinda looks like a cherry tree but I guess it isn't. Thanks 👍

Looking online they are often confused and there are ways to tell the difference, and it seems like one of them is smell. Plums have a sweet smell and cherries don't. The trees I walked by had a sweet smell.

Asian Plum trees are always some of the earliest trees to bloom around here. They have pretty light pink flowers. The ones near us are just starting to open up too. Later on in the season they have reddish leaves and small fruit. Doesn't seem like anyone ever eats them but I think they are edible. 

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12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Uhh no. Some tree species burn easier than others, and native vegetation is different in different areas. This is why Australian bushfires are so bad - eucalyptus oil is flammable.

Link has a disability. His real name is Kyle. He has been posting here and on Fox 12 blog for years, under many different names. We need to let him post misinformation, conspiracy theories and youtube videos here with impunity or else we are being mean.

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24 minutes ago, Link said:

Yet we are going to be stuck in 2015 ridge land according to long range. :(

No you won’t. Don’t worry. 🙂

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Just now, Phil said:

No you won’t. Don’t worry. 🙂

I can think of many years that had a "false start" to the sunny season like this in early March only to have things turn much troughier later on in the spring. In fact many years a warm and sunny period this time of year can prove to be a kiss of death for a warm and dry April-June.

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Looks like the GFS keeps the cold nights going right through early next week now.  Moving toward the ECMWF.  Monday is looking like a pretty crisp day in general right now.  850s go low enough for a snow threat if the details play out right.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I can think of many years that had a "false start" to the sunny season like this in early March only to have things turn much troughier later on in the spring. In fact many years a warm and sunny period this time of year can prove to be a kiss of death for a warm and dry April-June.

It has actually been quite troughy overall.  850s have been pretty consistently below normal.  I'm perfectly happy with this month so far.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I can think of many years that had a "false start" to the sunny season like this in early March only to have things turn much troughier later on in the spring. In fact many years a warm and sunny period this time of year can prove to be a kiss of death for a warm and dry April-June.

I can also think of a few years very recently that were consistently cool/zonal early in the spring (think 2018) then went onto become fiery tinderboxes across the West.

Probably not a coincidence those were all WPAC years. Which this is not.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It has actually been quite troughy overall.  850s have been pretty consistently below normal.  I'm perfectly happy with this month so far.

For what was advertised, it has definitely fallen short in terms of anomalously cool weather. Has generally been the case since the mid February snow event. I suppose that's karma since that event made the absolute most out of the pattern at hand in terms of cold.

Both PDX and SEA will be slightly above average for the month after today.

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41 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

53/36 today. Noticed the DP here has went from 35 to 29 over the last 2 hours...could be the chilliest night tonight out of this stretch but some high clouds are coming in from the north. 

I've been wracking up the frosty nights with this pattern.  A nippy 28 this morning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

For what was advertised, it has definitely fallen short in terms of anomalously cool weather. Has generally been the case since the mid February snow event. I suppose that's karma since that event made the absolute most out of the pattern at hand in terms of cold.

Both PDX and SEA will be slightly above average for the month after today.

This is a classic case where places like OLM are going to get the cold anoms.  MBY is kind of like OLM, but not quite as cold usually.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is a classic case where places like OLM are going to get the cold anoms.  MBY is kind of like OLM, but not quite as cold usually.

We do fairly well for radiational cooling here too. But I don't really have long term averages for this area.

It definitely hasn't been a torch, and the weather has been pretty pleasant at times with lots of frosty nights. It definitely hasn't been a big league cold period like 1955 or even 2019 for that matter, though.

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14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

59/28 HIO

Over four months since they last hit 60 degrees at that station. 

I wonder how Vegas compares. ;)

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7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

All depends on location.  Mine is on a north facing slope and blooms in late may

Well that is just sad.   🙁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

This VP200 standing wave is d**n beautiful. Have to go back to 2011 to find anything like it.

12z EPS:

 

93263228-EA79-45CB-96FB-C36EEA79133D.png

The breadth and depth of this summer’s cold is going to catch a lot of westerner’s seriously off guard.  Game changing stuff.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

52F and beautiful in downtown Springfield. If someone needs a badass to install a weather station, then call up @SilverFallsAndrew because I can’t thank him enough for helping me with this.

And @MR.SNOWMIZER is the most gracious person on this board!

Again, thank you so much for making this happen!! Brings tears to my eyes looking at this. Mother Nature...always hard at work. 🙏🏻🙏🏻

95C2D5AA-16D7-4271-A3F6-5415DC366363.jpeg

611CF521-D3A2-43A8-AFCE-CE3A3793AFB3.jpeg

Pretty awesome he made it down there. That's a nice looking set up.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM running -1.8 on the month, after a low of 23 this morning.

Last time I was up there I could see a large area of new construction happening VERY close to exit 101. Might not be long before the station of the gods is defiled.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Last time I was up in the area I could see a large area of new construction happening VERY close to exit 101. Might not be long before the station of the gods is defiled.

elfOLM.gif.a862bc97850ea436029e482e8b7f47f1.gif

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Low. Solar.

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43 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

elfOLM.gif.a862bc97850ea436029e482e8b7f47f1.gif

I imagine you must actually care to some degree despite the silly response. It’s one of your biggest talking points on here.

We probably both agree that having functioning rural weather stations representing the climate zones in this country/the world is an important thing for monitoring long term trends and teasing out the effects of UHI. 

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

The breadth and depth of this summer’s cold is going to catch a lot of westerner’s seriously off guard.  Game changing stuff.

It might shock you to hear this, but I don’t foresee this summer following in 1964’s footsteps.

Maybe 0.5-1°F below average overall? Aug/Sep might even average warm. 😱

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