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March 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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Soaking up some vitamin D on the deck with a cold beer.   Feels great.  Tomorrow will be all work out here. 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... and the same exact map showed the Nina looking much healthier 2 months ago.  Apples to apples.

You still don’t understand ENSO. 😞

The canonical La Niña *SSTA signature* almost always peaks near the winter solstice under (normal boundary conditions) then wanes in the spring. But the La Niña system is still very much present.

And we’re in the middle of an MJO wave that has warmed SSTAs (transiently). That’s not ENSO. The boundary currents, thermocline, and low pass circulation are all solidly La Niña, and those SSTAs will cool upon the return of trades.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

You still don’t understand ENSO. 😞

The canonical La Niña *SSTA signature* almost always peaks near the winter solstice under (normal boundary conditions) then wanes in the spring. But the La Niña system is still very much present.

And we’re in the middle of an MJO wave that has warmed SSTAs (transiently). That’s not ENSO. The boundary currents, thermocline, and low pass circulation are all solidly La Niña, and those SSTAs will cool upon the return of trades.

So why are you so excitedly posting about something that will reinforce the Nina then??

You goofy troll boy. 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So why are you so excitedly posting about something that will reinforce the Nina then??

You goofy troll boy. 

Welp, now I see what’s going on here. Kudos, Tim. You caught me hook, line, and sinker. 😉 I actually thought you were straight faced initially.

Let me know if you ever want to have a legitimate discussion re: ENSO. Unless I’m sleeping I’m always up for it.

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Just now, Phil said:

Welp, now I see what’s going on here. Kudos, Tim. You caught me hook, line, and sinker. 😉

Let me know if you ever want to have a legitimate discussion re: ENSO. Unless I’m sleeping I’m always up for it.

Yeah... I can read a SSTA map and I see the model consensus is for ENSO neutral this summer.    Don't need to know much more than that... things are always changing. 

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Anyone else miss how chill this place was over the winter? I mean there were a lot of posts, but it felt less frantic somehow.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Anyone else miss how chill this place was over the winter? I mean there were a lot of posts, but it felt less frantic somehow.

I made a comment about the Nina needing to be reinforced.   Which is clearly the case... no matter how much Phil wants to tell me I am wrong.   :)

nino34.png

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Looks like we are going to top out around 61 or so here. DP is down in the upper 20s though, so probably a good chance at another freeze tonight.

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I can read a SSTA map and I see the model consensus is for ENSO neutral this summer.    Don't need to know much more than that... things are always changing. 

Bro, I’m not out to get you. Recall, a few years back I was predicting that multiyear +ENSO, posting all those hovmollers depicting WWBs, and some folks on the other side of the “preference spectrum” weren’t happy/thought I was trolling, etc.

Truth is I just have an unhealthy obsession with seasonal to intradecadal scale climate dynamics. I get invested in it. And yeah, I’m looking forward to the La Niña/-PMM/retracted warm pool cycle. It helps cool the globe, is a better conduit to -NAO, and can make for cooler summers (and winters) across the CONUS.

I think you’re assuming I’m trying to trigger you and are therefore trying to do likewise to me. Lol.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Bro, I’m not out to get you. Recall, a few years back I was predicting that multiyear +ENSO, posting all those hovmollers depicting WWBs, and some folks on the other side of the “preference spectrum” weren’t happy/thought I was trolling, etc.

Truth is I just have an unhealthy obsession with seasonal to intradecadal scale climate dynamics. I get invested in it. And yeah, I’m looking forward to the La Niña/-PMM/retracted warm pool cycle. It helps cool the globe, is a better conduit to -NAO, and can make for cooler summers (and winters) across the CONUS.

I think you’re assuming I’m trying to trigger you and are therefore trying to do likewise to me. Lol.

No... I totally respect your analysis.   I assume the Nina will be reinforced soon.   That is the reality and it's good information.

All I said was the that the Nina needed reinforcing now.  And it does! 

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I understand that it has to do with wind anomalies but I still can’t really tell anything about reading or understand it basically. 

The x-axis represents the ENSO regions longitudinally. You can see the corresponding map at the bottom that shows geographically where the changes in wind direction are taking place. The y-axis contains time and wind anomaly. So moving down the chart the time progresses to correspond with the dates on the left. The colors are zonal wind anomaly. I don't know what units are being used but I assume positive numbers represent the magnitude of "zonal" or westerly wind, while the negative numbers represent the magnitude of the "anti-zonal" or easterly wind (trade winds).

Stronger trade winds lead to upwelling as warm SSTs are corralled into the far western Pacific, allowing colder subsurface water to rise to the surface. This in turn affects where tropical convection does and does not occur, which plays a large role in driving global weather patterns.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... I totally respect your analysis.   I assume the Nina will be reinforced soon.   That is the reality and it's good information.

All I said was the that the Nina needed reinforcing now.  And it does! 

Then why did you call me “troll boy” for posting that EPS U-wind hovmoller? Don’t see what was wrong with that post.

I’m not sure the niña “needs” reinforcing now, but I admit this is murky territory.

This is a fairly typical intraseasonal cycle, common to many ENSO events at this point in their life cycle. If it were something more, well, we wouldn’t have this low pass state present the way it is. You know what I mean? Those phase changes emerge from other low pass states, ultimately.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Then why did you call me “troll boy” for posting that EPS U-wind hovmoller? Don’t see what was wrong with that post.

I’m not sure the niña “needs” reinforcing now, but I admit this is murky territory.

This is a fairly typical intraseasonal cycle, common to many ENSO events at this point in their life cycle. If it were something more, well, we wouldn’t have this low pass state present the way it is. You know what I mean? Those phase changes emerge from other low pass states, ultimately.

I called you troll boy for your comment afterward.  ;)

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Anyone else miss how chill this place was over the winter? I mean there were a lot of posts, but it felt less frantic somehow.

Spring has sprung! 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Spring has sprung! 

18Z ECMWF was much better than the 12Z run for us on Sunday.   👍

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57/34 today. DP of 31...still have only gotten 1 freeze this month. Hopefully we can get a second one tonight. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

The x-axis represents the ENSO regions longitudinally. You can see the corresponding map at the bottom that shows geographically where the changes in wind direction are taking place. The y-axis contains time and wind anomaly. So moving down the chart the time progresses to correspond with the dates on the left. The colors are zonal wind anomaly. I don't know what units are being used but I assume positive numbers represent the magnitude of "zonal" or westerly wind, while the negative numbers represent the magnitude of the "anti-zonal" or easterly wind (trade winds).

Stronger trade winds lead to upwelling as warm SSTs are corralled into the far western Pacific, allowing colder subsurface water to rise to the surface. This in turn affects where tropical convection does and does not occur, which plays a large role in driving global weather patterns.

Thanks, I’ll try to remember this but my heads a little hazy right now. Lot going on at work and in my life has had me kind of having a hard time focusing or remembering things. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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59 and beautiful. Got up to 61F and got down to 31F overnight for our first freeze since Feb 24 and the 37th freeze since Oct.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Soaking up some vitamin D on the deck with a cold beer.   Feels great.  Tomorrow will be all work out here. 

No work tomorrow for me. Tee time set for a round on the south central coast. Now if my elbow will cooperate....??

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6 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

No work tomorrow for me. Tee time set for a round on the south central coast. Now if my elbow will cooperate....??

Ocean Shores or Long Beach? What is considered the South Central coast?

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ocean Shores or Long Beach? What is considered the South Central coast?

Florence.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

No work tomorrow for me. Tee time set for a round on the south central coast. Now if my elbow will cooperate....??

I’m golfing tomorrow too!  We should hang out!!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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43 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m golfing tomorrow too!  We should hang out!!

I see you have finally embraced your delicious, crispy, Christian spirit animal.

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1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

So what I learned from the Tim/Phil back and forth is that I want it to be a neutral winter 21'/22'.

I think I might have actually lost some IQ points following that one.

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

So what I learned from the Tim/Phil back and forth is that I want it to be a neutral winter 21'/22'.

Neutral is best in all seasons.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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57 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I see you have finally embraced your delicious, crispy, Christian spirit animal.

I see you can see stuff.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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46 here as well. Still running a -1.0 departure as of today. Could be a really nice diurnal range tomorrow. 23 degree range today...might be a little more tomorrow. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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00Z GFS says its snowing offshore over the ocean on Sunday afternoon while its almost 60 degrees out here.    And that low then sinks south towards northern CA.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png

gfs_T2ma_nwus_9.png

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS says its snowing offshore over the ocean on Sunday afternoon while its almost 60 degrees out here.    And that low then sinks south towards northern CA.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png

gfs_T2ma_nwus_9.png

It’s snowing heavily down to sea level up on the Haida Gwaii tonight.  Which is actually not that common for how far north it is.  Average snowfall up there is similar to Victoria. 

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Ugh.

1) If you look beyond SSTs (thermocline structure, IPWP, boundary currents, Hadley/Walker coupling, etc) you’ll see La Niña is doing just fine.

2) Those OISST maps are skewed insanely warm. Especially in the extra tropics. I’d recommend finding another source.

 

I agree.  If you look at the SOI and trades this Nina is doing fine.  Are you surprised he found the warmest looking maps?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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One mistake the operational GFS seems to be making is splitting the 850mb cold pool both N and S of Washington.  All other models keep the 850mb cold tongue in tact in spite of the splitting of the 500mb trough.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looks like another easy freeze tonight.  Already down to 39.  It will probably drop below freezing for a good 5 hours or so like last night.  Ended up with a 56 / 29 today.

Nice to see the 0z GFS pick up on another cold opportunity.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree.  If you look at the SOI and trades this Nina is doing fine.  Are you surprised he found the warmest looking maps?

Those are the SSTA maps on WB.

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4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

59 and beautiful. Got up to 61F and got down to 31F overnight for our first freeze since Feb 24 and the 37th freeze since Oct.

You came out of the gate swinging on freezing low temps this season.  Things have kind of sputtered for you in the second half of the cold season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Here you go Jim... using a different map.

Phil showed something that indicated the Nina would be reinforced.   I said that is good because the Nina looks like it needs to be reinforced.    Point stands no matter what map you use.  👍

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

nino34 (1).png

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ECMWF shows 59 tomorrow in Seattle... that should end up being 63 or 64 in reality accounting for its cold bias.   At least its consistent so its still a good guide.  

Unfortunately the 00Z ECMWF is just slightly faster with the light rain on Sunday so that caps that day's high temp on this run.   

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Now I see where the GFS nd ECMWF are so different.  The GFS shows a surface low off the coast on Sunday with offshore flow, while the ECMWF has no offshore flow or offshore low whatsoever.  Looks like the GFS is the outlier in keeping thing relatively warm late Sunday and early next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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ECMWF has 850s dropping to -8 over SEA Sunday night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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