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March 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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I promise there are tears of joy under these glasses. @MR.SNOWMIZERis arguably the most gracious person on this board. ūüôŹūüŹĽ I cannot thank you enough for this. Following the weather provides a type of p

Friends, This is OT so please forgive me for disrupting your weather discussions. I just want to provide another update since my last post few weeks back about my mother contracting covid. U

52F and beautiful in downtown Springfield. If someone needs a badass to install a weather station, then call up @SilverFallsAndrew because I can’t thank him enough for helping me with this. And @

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

November D+ December F, January D+, February A- March C+ (so far)
 

Things got a lot better after early January. 

Pretty identical winter for our locations. 15.5" of snow with the big event and nothing outside of a trace earlier in the winter. 

I'd give the winter a B overall, in spite of an overwhelming majority of it being lame. The reality in this climate is that everything is heavily weighted towards the rare big events. If one delivers it pretty automatically seals the year. It could be a long, long time before we see another winter storm like that.

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Just a perfect afternoon... plenty of sun and low to mid 50s and no wind at all.     My wife had the day off and spent the entire day in the yard working and I had to join her for the last couple hours because it was too nice to be inside working.  

 

nb 3-16.png

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54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS continues to be pretty dull. For all the Nina hype we ended up with about 3 active weeks this winter. 

The GFS is (probably) wrong.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

I like a pattern with cut-off lows moving across the SW US.¬†¬†ūüėć

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I like a pattern with cut-off lows moving across the SW US.¬†¬†ūüėć

Will see more of those intermittently, favored in this phase of QBO shear stress.

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Also gives me hope that much of the CONUS could end up with a cool summer if we play the cards right. Only region that seems to display a *distinct* warm signal for JJS is the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

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Tomorrow is another example of a day when it will likely be warmer out here than in Seattle with offshore flow ahead of the low coming in on Thursday.    It will likely be around 60 out here.    With the low staying offshore... Thursday and Friday will also be days that have a good chance of being warmer out here.   The weekend will be a different story though when fairly strong onshore flow returns.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6025600 (1).png

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52 at SEA today... 54 in North Bend.   

The 12Z ECMWF showed 48 for a high in Seattle today.  

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If we are starting to roll out grades then here is Springfield:

 

November: D

December: F

January: F

February: F

March: B so far

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49¬†(Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just so sad... she was so close to getting the vaccine.    

Tim, 

I made 2 appointments for her. One on 2/16 and another on 2/17 as a backup. 
 

She got sick on the 12th. This is the hardest pill for us to swallow right now. 
 

And thank you everyone for the kind words. ‚̧ԳŹ¬†

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Will see more of those intermittently, favored in this phase of QBO shear stress.

One interesting thing about the setup that last few days is that the temperatures/DPs have been more what you would expect with a strong clipper dropping down to the east drawing in continental air, as opposed to a splitting front moving off the Pacific and forming a ULL over the SW.

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These would be my grades for the cold season so far. 

December: F (Really can't get much worse.)

January: C  (Warm, much needed precip, last 10 days of the month were a little below average and active with close to average snow.)

February: C+ (Missed out on snow with the mid-February event, did have sub-freezing high and significant ice, nice snow event on 2/3, above average precip, slightly below normal temps.) 

March: B- (Below average temps so far, a little snow, below normal precip.)

November: D

Warmer and drier than average, though at least there was an *appreciable* amount of precipitation so as to avoid drought. Also a decent little snap of northerlies early in the month to bring some crisp, sunny days. Otherwise unnoteworthy, and in fact worse than average.

December: C-

Pretty much a torch, which would otherwise automatically downgrade it to a D (maximum), if it weren't for that very interesting Solstice event which featured torrential rains, sudden and sharp temperature and wind changes, and a quick thumping of snowfall (about half an inches worth), all within the course of six hours. Also, the month featured above average precipitation, which despite the inconsistent snowpack building in the lower passes, still allowed for substantial high altitude Cascade snowfall.

So pretty much an "at least it rained" grade, with one random interesting event thrown in there. Otherwise uneventful.

January: C

Warmer and wetter than average, much like December, except a little less warm and a little more wet. The last third of the month featured a nice period of cold core showers and chilly below-average onshore flow, initiating what would become a very lucrative period for the lower passes; all-in-all serving to offset a brutal beginning to the month where 50F+ afternoons were the rule, not the exception. One blemish in the month's early narratives occurred on the 13th when a very fun squall line moved through, bringing a rapid bout of 55mph+ wind gusts and heavy rain, and even a severe warning for the North Sound as postfrontal convection behind an underestimated, tightly closed off pinhole low tapped into the frontal LLJ. Overall a quite riveting and unexpected experience, which singlehandedly removed the minus sign off this month's grade.

February: A

What do I need to say here? Colder and wetter than average, gobs of mountain snow, and oh, by the way, the biggest snowstorm in Seattle since the infamous month of January 1969, with a subfreezing high or two to boot. Throw in a few convective thunderstorms and you have an A grade. Pretty much the perfect month; the only thing preventing that plus mark being that I only reserve those for the truly special months, such as February 2019 or December 2008.

March (so far, but it looks as if this overall regime is set to continue through the end of the month, barring some transient ridging): B+

Cooler and wetter than average. Some spits of snowfall and a couple postfrontal convective thunderstorms, and even a few nice sunny days mixed in. Wonderful snowpack building in all elevations of the Cascades. A good, interesting, and ecologically beneficial month so far, no complaints here.

Winter 2020-21: B

In this case, the adage "better late than never" really outdid itself, as we've seen some very enjoyable, if not thrilling, weather since the regime shift in mid January associated with the breakdown of the SPV. I still would like to redo those first few months, and it is quite honestly getting a bit tiring having to wait multiple months for interesting winter weather. But seeing as our snowpack is in a wonderful, healthy shape, and given the generational snow event, mixed in with plenty of convective action, I'd say that the wait was well worth it. Hard to complain too much here, aside from the excitement being condensed into small periods of time late in the game. Slightly better than average.

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-7 departure at SLE today.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Nice evening 

DCAA5443-FCC4-4E68-BA97-41BD16316AF0.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You are going to get Jesse’s special wiener with posts like that. 

It is a nice evening.

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35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You are going to get Jesse’s special wiener with posts like that. 

Down to 38. Chilly night!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Wow.  I'm getting kind of a 1985 vibe from the models right now.  Looks like another long streak of frosty nights being shown on both GFS models.  I think some places will easily see 20+ freezes this month.  OLM is already at 13 or 14 I think.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

53/23 today.  About perfect IMO.

161392179_10223913041487547_7630219232507236503_n.jpg

Awesome pic and awesome stats.  I'll be damned if this wasn't the spring pattern I was hoping for.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Down to 35. Going to be another cold one!

Looking a lot better for me tonight.  No clouds.   Down to 38 here with a 52 / 32 range so far today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 hours ago, Jesse said:

One interesting thing about the setup that last few days is that the temperatures/DPs have been more what you would expect with a strong clipper dropping down to the east drawing in continental air, as opposed to a splitting front moving off the Pacific and forming a ULL over the SW.

Indeed.  I have marveled at this cold snap when you consider how pitiful the 500mb pattern has looked with it.  The key was a strong GOA / Aleutian block (which broke down well before the cold trough arrived here) was able to tap into some of that amazing cold pool over Siberia and drive it into the trough that later arrived here.  The initial cold air dump was so strong that it was able to endure the trip over the ocean on its way here.  I like it when we start seeing the breaks go our way!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Both GFS models are pretty emphatic about Canadian air dominating much of week 2.  We might be embarking on a very different journey this year than what we have been used to.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Down to 34

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I'm seriously wondering if places like OLM could threaten their all time records for the average minimum for March.  Given what they've already had combined with what the models are showing later in the month it could be pretty ridiculous in some spots.  I'll have to do some looking what the record months are.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm seriously wondering if places like OLM could threaten their all time records for the average minimum for March.  Given what they've already had combined with what the models are showing later in the month it could be pretty ridiculous in some spots.  I'll have to do some looking what the record months are.

1965

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1965

So what you are saying is the way to achieve record cold at radiational cooling spots in March is to have lots of dry, sunny days?    500mb pattern is sort of irrelevant... just stop the rain.    

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So what you are saying is the way to achieve record cold at radiational cooling spots in March is to have lots of dry, sunny days?    500mb pattern is sort of irrelevant... just stop the rain.    

1965 was the coldest March on record in the country. Massive arctic airmasses to the east that gradually retrograded westward until the last one around the 25th which nicked us pretty good and delivered arctic sneux.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1965 was the coldest March on record in the country. Massive arctic airmasses to the east that gradually retrograded westward until the last one around the 25th which nicked us pretty good and delivered arctic sneux.

Interesting.    Looks like Snoqualmie Falls was above 60 almost every day during the first 2 weeks of the month.  Pretty remarkable for March.  I assume it was cold most of those nights in Olympia.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.    Looks like Snoqualmie Falls was above 60 almost every day during the first 2 weeks of the month.  Pretty remarkable for March.

Yeah, it started out ridgy here. Minneapolis had 37" of snow and was 13 degrees below average that month, never got above 38.

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1965 was the coldest March on record in the country. Massive arctic airmasses to the east that gradually retrograded westward until the last one around the 25th which nicked us pretty good and delivered arctic sneux.

Thanks for the info.  I was never aware of that one.  It certainly shows up in the Landsburg records with a low of 19 on the 19th.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Went up to Seattle today to check out discovery park and it was well worth it never been. 

87085286-F68B-46CF-A68D-BE13B9FA4B19.jpeg

0F9053C8-6700-438C-BBFF-FA1A3C92D141.jpeg

1DC0642E-D038-4A63-86BF-81961AB54CAF.jpeg

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-63

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Interesting that cold air from Sunday - Tuesday failed to drop the temp below freezing here but it will happen tomorrow morning with warm 850mb temps.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-t850_anom_stream-5852800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-t850_anom_stream-5982400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not cooling down as rapidly tonight as last night but still going to be chilly. 40 with a DP of 31. Hopefully another freeze tonight.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-63

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For Andrew... the 00Z ECMWF still shows Friday being decent here.   High temps in the mid to maybe upper 50s out here with just a few scattered showers.   Am I allowed to call that mild rain?     ;)

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-6198400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6198400 (3).png

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Sunday looks quite chilly... highs temps look similar to yesterday in the mid to upper 40s with rain moving in during the afternoon.   That will likely be a pretty raw day here.

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Just looked and we’re running 1.6 degrees below normal for the month as of today. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-63

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Tuesday - Thursday looks wet for western WA.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-6673600.png

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Lots of mountain snow on the 00Z ECMWF next week.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-6803200.png

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