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March 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Obviously (mostly) anecdotal, but the parallel GFS was over-doing western ridging even last Jan/Feb. I remember some insane solutions that resembled Feb 2015 (which was not even close).

Who knows, it could be a solution this model will be more prone to default to in the long range.

It seems prone to ridiculously extreme solutions in the long range... both warm and cold.   I have seen extreme examples of both.   And so far... it appears to be prone to greatly overstating lowland snowfall which is just like the old GFS in that regard.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's always fun to see the observations from the whacky Tolt Reservoir weather station.  This morning they are at 1F with 100% humidity and 220 mph winds.  Talk about an eventful place!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's always fun to see the observations from the whacky Tolt Reservoir weather station.  This morning they are at 1F with 100% humidity and 220 mph winds.  Talk about an eventful place!

Same conditions here!¬†¬†ūüėĀ

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the new GFS is not dull. Lol

The new GFS is crazy dry over the next 16 days... its definitely wrong.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_16day-7796800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I noticed there’s a c-zone this morning in the EPSL from Tacoma eastward this morning. Has happened a few times this cold season. 

CZ has favored us a little more this season but lacks the intensity they enjoy up north. Who knows, if this continues perhaps we will be called MossMen of South Sound! 
 

41*

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The new GFS is crazy dry over the next 16 days... its definitely wrong.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_16day-7796800.png

It's been crazy dry for the past few weeks. This jives with past springs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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One thing I'll say is both versions of the GFS are interesting.  The new one has us being brushed by Arctic air just after day 10 and the old one has a wild roller coaster ride on the 850s.  Both indicate their could be some very enjoyable weather coming up for pretty much every taste.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's been crazy dry for the past few weeks. This jives with past springs. 

It was very dry here for the first 20 days of March in my area... but its been basically raining non-stop since late Friday night here.   I realize much of the Seattle area was in the rain shadow yesterday... but at least out here we probably put a decent dent in the negative departure on precip.   Still going to end being a dry month... but maybe not as extreme as it was through the 20th. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We've had what, 3 dry springs in a row, it has been the theme since 2013, not sure why this year would be any different. I'm sure by the end of April we'll start an endless torch. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It was very dry here for the first 20 days of March in my area... but its been basically raining non-stop since late Friday night here.   I realize much of the Seattle area was in the rain shadow yesterday... but at least out here we probably put a decent dent in the negative departure on precip.   Still going to end being a dry month... but maybe not as extreme as it was through the 20th. 

That's what I'm saying. 2-3 days of rain = 3 weeks of dry weather now in this climate. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I'll say is both versions of the GFS are interesting.  The new one has us being brushed by Arctic air just after day 10 and the old one has a wild roller coaster ride on the 850s.  Both indicate their could be some very enjoyable weather coming up for pretty much every taste.

Month to date has been great for people who would like some plain vanilla ice cream with a glass of water on the side for dessert.

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's been crazy dry for the past few weeks. This jives with past springs. 

Not so much up here.  We have had none of the dryness your area has experienced other than a month here and there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Month to date has been great for people who would like some plain vanilla ice cream with a glass of water on the side for dessert.

I think it's been interesting in some respects.  Some places are going to end up with a really cold average min for the month.  I'm always about the spring time frosts and below normal temps.  Right now it's 39 here so I'm pretty happy.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Month to date has been great for people who would like some plain vanilla ice cream with a glass of water on the side for dessert.

I like the Talenti’s Caramel Cookie Crunch Gelato...YUM! 

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Almost had forgotten about this one. 03/22/2015. T'storms in March aren't too common (roughly 40-50% of Marches feature thunders, and usually just weak ones). This one had a shelf cloud which for the time of year is very good. 1/2" hail fell. Some of the storm I missed while I was inside a Safeway shopping for a few things. 

20150322-04.jpg

20150322-01.jpg

20150322-07.jpg

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not so much up here.  We have had none of the dryness your area has experienced other than a month here and there.

So true.   Its like a different world down there.   And its real.

For example... Seattle has had a wet spring (Mar-May) in 3 out of the last 4 years and the one drier than normal year (2019) was barely below normal.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

CZ has favored us a little more this season but lacks the intensity they enjoy up north. Who knows, if this continues perhaps we will be called MossMen of South Sound! 
 

41*

We've had more NW flow this year which often brings the zone south.  I might attempt a study of the 1950s to see where the C-Zone ended up during those cold years.  I have detailed records for SEA so I might be able to figure it out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's what I'm saying. 2-3 days of rain = 3 weeks of dry weather now in this climate. 

Probably the most notable months in terms going from wet to dry at my place are the October/November duo. This happened for two consecutive Falls and not only that fact; the first 15 days of November had not a drop of precipitation both in 2019/2020, which previously hadn't happened since around 2000 before this.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The new GFS is crazy dry over the next 16 days... its definitely wrong.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_16day-7796800.png

For your area probly. For down here it‚Äôs probly spot-on. We are 2‚ÄĚ below normal precip for March in this area. Fortunately, we have been a half-degree below normal for the month so far too so let‚Äôs hope that can hold on. ūü§ěūüŹĽ

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49¬†(Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems prone to ridiculously extreme solutions in the long range... both warm and cold.   I have seen extreme examples of both.   And so far... it appears to be prone to greatly overstating lowland snowfall which is just like the old GFS in that regard.

I do wish they could dial in the snowfall projections on the models.  I think it's a combination of temperatures often being borderline and terrain making precip amount in any given location so tricky to forecast.  East of the Rockies they have flat terrain and temps are often more than cold enough so it makes projections so much simpler.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Even though last couple springs overall could be wetter. 2019 at least featured a few impressive long duration rainfalls that even soaked the east slopes pretty good in April and May. I know spring has trended drier over the last several, I can't deny that. 24 hour rainfalls (literally) in K-Falls are a sight to behold here, I've been in this area long enough to know.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I do wish they could dial in the snowfall projections on the models.  I think it's a combination of temperatures often being borderline and terrain making precip amount in any given location so tricky to forecast.  East of the Rockies they have flat terrain and temps are often more than cold enough so it makes projections so much simpler.

Maybe that’s true in the Plains/Midwest. But there’s lots of varied/complicated topography from the NE US down thru Appalachia, which makes forecasting a challenge in all seasons. Even in summer where terrain circulations often break the cap and subsequently trigger widespread/unforecasted convection downstream. Not to mention storms initiated by sea/bay/river breeze fronts during afternoons which global models rarely simulate and HRRR/NAM3km can only guess at.

In the winter it’s often CAD, which is notoriously stubborn to erode and has lead to forecast busts of 30+ degrees only 12hrs out (both from humans and models). Also plenty of marginal events where a few miles can make the difference between a foot of chowder or wet ground. Not to mention downslope winds that can unexpectedly mix down nocturnally and spike temps higher than previous daytime highs.

It’s almost always a challenge to simulate/forecast this stuff.

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Been back on the river chasing Springers so I've been out of touch with any discussion here of upcoming spring and summer possibilities.  I've gathered we're possibly exiting our La Nina, possibly going back to an El Nino?  Dont have time to track that down.  Saw a long range forecast for a warmer (hotter) summer in the PNW? 

The Willamette R is very low right now but still running a bit chilly at 46.7 on my fish finder.  Fish need some good scent to home in on so we need the river to blow out.  Not a lot of fish have entered the W yet.  Just enough to keep us on the water.  I don't see a bounce in the water level happening any time soon.  Eventually the Columbia drainage system will melt and keep the river cold but last year the snow all came off fast.  Maybe slow wins the race this year.  Helps the smolt migration. 

One good wet warm system would melt off the midlevel snow and pop the W river but if that doesn't happen I see the river staying low and will warm fast.  In the  Oregon City area that will create a big algae bloom and kill that particular area for fishing.  Messes up all our gear.  Last year we got chased off that section late May. 

Warmer weather will trickle down to the Columbia and that creates all kinds of problems for smolt migration.  Right now I just want a good warm wet system but don't see it any time soon.  I will enjoy the upper 60's coming up though.  It will feel good on my old bones when I'm out on the boat. 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Only Jesse would go back three years into someone's post history to downvote a post about a Red Robin burger.

Must have really hit a nerve with my sunny pic from Mexico.

I'm flattered that he took the time do that.¬†ūü•į

ūüėĀ

Classic Jesse.   Lets psycho-analyze him like he loves to do with me.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Been back on the river chasing Springers so I've been out of touch with any discussion here of upcoming spring and summer possibilities.  I've gathered we're possibly exiting our La Nina, possibly going back to an El Nino?  Dont have time to track that down.  Saw a long range forecast for a warmer (hotter) summer in the PNW? 

The Willamette R is very low right now but still running a bit chilly at 46.7 on my fish finder.  Fish need some good scent to home in on so we need the river to blow out.  Not a lot of fish have entered the W yet.  Just enough to keep us on the water.  I don't see a bounce in the water level happening any time soon.  Eventually the Columbia drainage system will melt and keep the river cold but last year the snow all came off fast.  Maybe slow wins the race this year.  Helps the smolt migration. 

One good wet warm system would melt off the midlevel snow and pop the W river but if that doesn't happen I see the river staying low and will warm fast.  In the  Oregon City area that will create a big algae bloom and kill that particular area for fishing.  Messes up all our gear.  Last year we got chased off that section late May. 

Warmer weather will trickle down to the Columbia and that creates all kinds of problems for smolt migration.  Right now I just want a good warm wet system but don't see it any time soon.  I will enjoy the upper 60's coming up though.  It will feel good on my old bones when I'm out on the boat. 

I hope someday the Santiam becomes a good river again. Growing up everyone fished the Santiam, now all I hear is how much it has declined in the past 20 years. :(

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Been back on the river chasing Springers so I've been out of touch with any discussion here of upcoming spring and summer possibilities.  I've gathered we're possibly exiting our La Nina, possibly going back to an El Nino?  Dont have time to track that down.  Saw a long range forecast for a warmer (hotter) summer in the PNW? . 

No to #1, and probably not to #2.

Though I’m increasingly concerned that analogs like 2012/1999 are bearing more systematic resemblance (in the important aspects) than 2008/1984 (IE: outcomes with nationally hot summers vs nationally cool summers).

Thing is, it’s a surprisingly small (initial) bifurcation between the two evolutions..in essence the factors that could produce a 2008-like outcome also increase the risk for a 2012-like outcome.

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16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Only Jesse would go back three years into someone's post history to downvote a post about a Red Robin burger.

Must have really hit a nerve with my sunny pic from Mexico.

I'm flattered that he took the time do that.¬†ūü•į

I was already back in the thread reading posts on some old event. Can't remember which one now. Kind of a fun thing to do here sometimes.

I did figure you would eventually say something about it considering you are a 14 year old girl and all.¬†ūü•į

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I used the search feature (another cool thing here) to look up how many times Red Robin has been mentioned in this forum's history (only 23!) and that led me back to which thread it was. October 2019. It was bugging me that I couldn't remember. That was a fun month. 

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Back to the land of cold, damp grayness. Summer can't come soon enough.

image.jpeg.b869fd861630605e658b7e047f788684.jpeg
You just made it! Again!

Sidebar: Jesse is getting YOKED!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

image.jpeg.b869fd861630605e658b7e047f788684.jpeg
You just made it! Again!

Sidebar: Jesse is getting YOKED!

How long have you been saving that one?¬†ūü§£

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I was already back in the thread reading posts on some old event. Can't remember which one now. Kind of a fun thing to do here sometimes.

I did figure you would eventually say something about it considering you are a 14 year old girl and all.¬†ūü•į

Ah yes, I'm the 14 year old girl who holds grudges and takes out my passive aggressive attitude on people via downvotes on a weather forum in the hopes that they will say something about it and I will become the topic of conversation yet again.

Glad you got me all figured out!

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Ah yes, I'm the 14 year old girl who holds grudges and takes out my passive aggressive attitude on people via downvotes on a weather forum in the hopes that they will say something about it and I will become the topic of conversation yet again.

Glad you got me all figured out!

Relax.

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Jesse telling anyone to relax.¬† ¬†ūüėĀ

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF is showing a really sharp cold front on Sunday with late morning temps pushing 60 and crashing into the 30s by mid evening.  Say what you will about this month, but it has featured some really impressive cold fronts at times.  I think it's just been too dry for a lot of people on here.  A sentiment I don't share.

  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is showing a really sharp cold front on Sunday with late morning temps pushing 60 and crashing into the 30s by mid evening.  Say what you will about this month, but it has featured some really impressive cold fronts at times.  I think it's just been too dry for a lot of people on here.  A sentiment I don't share.

I will agree with you there have been some sharp cold fronts but things just haven‚Äôt been all that dynamic really. Only one day with thunder, almost no notable precip events, and not even any snow falling at any point. Those are pretty low bars to clear for a Ni√Īa March, usually.

The cold lows and coolish temps despite a good deal of sunshine have been the one big thing that have stuck out to me

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46 minutes ago, Phil said:

Maybe that’s true in the Plains/Midwest. But there’s lots of varied/complicated topography from the NE US down thru Appalachia, which makes forecasting a challenge in all seasons. Even in summer where terrain circulations often break the cap and subsequently trigger widespread/unforecasted convection downstream. Not to mention storms initiated by sea/bay/river breeze fronts during afternoons which global models rarely simulate and HRRR/NAM3km can only guess at.

In the winter it’s often CAD, which is notoriously stubborn to erode and has lead to forecast busts of 30+ degrees only 12hrs out (both from humans and models). Also plenty of marginal events where a few miles can make the difference between a foot of chowder or wet ground. Not to mention downslope winds that can unexpectedly mix down nocturnally and spike temps higher than previous daytime highs.

It’s almost always a challenge to simulate/forecast this stuff.

 

Yeah...some of that crossed my mind when I did the post.  No doubt that terrain really messes with the models.  The old NGM model was really fun to look at, because it basically assumed everything was as flat as a table.  It really offered  a glimpse into what would happen with no topography.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I will agree with you there have been some sharp cold fronts but things just haven’t been all that dynamic really. Only one day with thunder, almost no notable precip events, and not even any snow falling at any point. None of those things are wildly unusual for March.

The cold lows and coolish temps despite a good deal of sunshine have been the one big thing that have stuck out to me

I think the big picture is good.  Our cold years all have one thing in common.  High heights over the GOA.  With some small tweaks this month could have been colder.  I still think we will have a notable period of anomalous cold before spring really gets going.  Could be a few warm spikes beforehand though.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is showing a really sharp cold front on Sunday with late morning temps pushing 60 and crashing into the 30s by mid evening.  Say what you will about this month, but it has featured some really impressive cold fronts at times.  I think it's just been too dry for a lot of people on here.  A sentiment I don't share.

I don't mind some extra rain in the spring when the summer is going to be dry.

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Up to 45 with partly sunny skies. Pretty nice day haven’t had any rain since 4am. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-63

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Euro gives us about 1/2‚ÄĚ of rain through the end of the month. Would put us at about 2.25‚ÄĚ by the end which is fairly dry. Wouldn‚Äôt be surprised if April or may ended up wetter than march this year.¬†

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-63

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro gives us about 1/2‚ÄĚ of rain through the end of the month. Would put us at about 2.25‚ÄĚ by the end which is fairly dry. Wouldn‚Äôt be surprised if April or may ended up wetter than march this year.¬†

You see the chance of a southern convergence zone in the south sound today? Might see some lightening.

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Though DJF were not extremely wet, each month was above average here. This was the first time in 10 years this occurred. So in a sense it figures March would be drier than normal. 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Snow on the ridge again today... that is not really too unusual for March and even April at times. 

20210322_123749.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Though DJF were not extremely wet, each month was above average here. This was the first time in 10 years this occurred. So in a sense it figures March would be drier than normal. 

Crazy how different our areas get. I can't remember the last time I had 3 consecutive months below. Well actually yes I do, that was 14-15. LOL

16-17 gave me 4-5 months above average snowfall. That was more than a solid season.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Great spring weather today.  Sun, rain, hail and wind, all within about 5 minutes of each other. 

Chilly for sure, sitting at 41 here with 0.60" for the day, 1.98" for the month.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow on the ridge again today... that is not really too unusual for March and even April at times. 

20210322_123749.jpg

ūüć∑

  • Troll 1

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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