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March 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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The 0z ensemble is way colder than previous runs.  Besides that the GFS meteograms show a lot of frosty nights over the next two weeks.  Could be some big time below normal days coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I promise there are tears of joy under these glasses. @MR.SNOWMIZERis arguably the most gracious person on this board. 🙏🏻 I cannot thank you enough for this. Following the weather provides a type of p

Friends, This is OT so please forgive me for disrupting your weather discussions. I just want to provide another update since my last post few weeks back about my mother contracting covid. U

52F and beautiful in downtown Springfield. If someone needs a badass to install a weather station, then call up @SilverFallsAndrew because I can’t thank him enough for helping me with this. And @

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2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

suicideweather.thumb.gif.9c03da63b5696a4bb0a66b56f415d059.gif

 

Tomorrow's suicide weather.

That thickness crash is probably the biggest story.  Impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I for one am thrilled with the regime we have gotten into to.  Unquestionably the behavior of our colder years.  Some of the model solutions for early next month get pretty impressive with the deep trough being forced between the PNA and NAO blocks.  I could see many locations picking up 10 or more freezes before we are through this season.

If we're lucky we'll see the global average go below normal again with the big -NAO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

That last shot was sooo close... would have won it. 

Depriving us of the possible Oral vs Beaver matchup.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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14 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

In terms of beauty it’s just as good or better than anything else in Washington. Has everything that Washington has all in one area. Islands, mountains, great beaches, tons of wildlife, lakes and great views of the northern cascades and Olympics. 

Methow Valley, Palouse Hills and the Scablands reading this thinking "am I a joke to you?"

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Just noticed that the 00z ECMWF was much warmer and drier for next weekend.   00Z EPS and 06Z GFS did not really agree unfortunately. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Depriving us of the possible Oral vs Beaver matchup.

Can you imagine.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can you imagine.

If only Colgate had managed to win 2 games. Oral vs Colgate, the battle of the mouths.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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5 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Methow Valley, Palouse Hills and the Scablands reading this thinking "am I a joke to you?"

Lol well I said just as good or better than. It’s just my opinion I’ve been through those areas as well very beautiful but in my opinion the San Juan’s are the best Washington has to offer. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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44 after a low of 42 this morning. Getting some light drizzle and it’s a little breezy but nothing crazy yet front is still NW of here moving inland. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Got down to 37F now up to 44F. Nice night and clouding up.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Partly sunny and 42. Tim’s day is ruined. Mine is not.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Needless to say the GFS was terrible for temperatures this morning.  It was going to be in the low 50s right now according to that.  It didn't take a rocket scientist to know it was way too warm.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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45 and partly sunny with south winds gusting to 27.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Partly sunny and 42. Tim’s day is ruined. Mine is not.

ECMWF and GFS still saying I should see a few wet flakes from this system, and have been very consistently saying so for several days.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Partly sunny and 42. Tim’s day is ruined. Mine is not.

I just spent 2 hours working outside and did not get wet... not a total loss. 👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interestingly... the 12Z WRF shows that the sun will be out in Seattle by late afternoon.    It will be cold and windy but this front is really moving fast. 

 

olr.12.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

20C3340D-71AA-495F-9484-03199B5C8CA0.jpeg

12Z ECMWF does show a little bit of snow in that same area.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-7019200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

20C3340D-71AA-495F-9484-03199B5C8CA0.jpeg

I get the feeling today will be interesting across the area especially in the c zone. Already pretty windy here in Tacoma with some moderate rain. Feels pretty cold and January like not like it’s going to be April in a couple days. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Getting a few gusts around 30mph now we will see if we get any of those stronger gusts forecasted today. Fairly late in the season for a front like this to be moving through. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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The ECMWF is a couple of degrees colder for some places Monday night. Looking like a good heavy frost that night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

53mph gust at Paine field a bit ago. 

Wonder if Bainbridge is golfing right now... that would be an adventure.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just spent 2 hours working outside and did not get wet... not a total loss. 👍

I just did some bonus work as well outside while listening to multitudes of bird song.    Good exercise as well 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Do you think we will see the global temperature average go below normal again?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Really helps to not have a raging vortex in Greenland/NE Canada.

For 5+ years, that vortex just sat over Baffin Island, as a clean teleconnection to that +PMM/+PNA and eastward-extended WPAC warm pool as a low pass feature. Now, after many head fakes, it looks as if we’ve finally reversed that pattern.

If this plays out similarly to previous IPWP cycles, then we’ll probably see the general -PMM/-ENSO dominant regime continue until solar maximum (~ 5 years from now), at which point the IPWP will begin to extend again.

I’d say 3 out of the next 4 years are likely to be -ENSO, with one moderate to strong niño mixed in there. Probably 2022/23.

 

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

53mph gust at Paine field a bit ago. 

I really like these potent cold fronts.  It's remarkable how little pecip they often have though.  This is the kind of stuff I remember in the mid 1980s, which was an awesome cold period for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Really helps to not have a raging vortex in Greenland/NE Canada.

For 5+ years, that vortex just sat over Baffin Island, as a clean teleconnection to that +PMM/+PNA and eastward-extended WPAC warm pool as a low pass feature. Now, after many head fakes, it looks as if we’ve finally reversed that pattern.

If this plays out similarly to previous IPWP cycles, then we’ll probably see the general -PMM/-ENSO dominant regime continue until solar maximum (~ 5 years from now), at which point the IPWP will begin to extend again.

I’d say 3 out of the next 4 years are likely to be -ENSO, with one moderate to strong niño mixed in there. Probably 2022/23.

 

Could be a great stretch for the NW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looks like 46 will be about it for my max today.  About 8 degrees below normal.  Pretty obvious the low will be set in the evening today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I’m still on board for a warmer period in the west as we move deeper into April. Possibly lasting into early May.

The low pass/-ENSO system is going to fight it, but this MJO/GWO looks potent enough to overcome it temporarily.

Exactly how long, I’m not sure. There’s a chance the background state is more dominant than expected, but even then, there should be some kind of hiccup during the second half of April.

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The 12z GFS ensemble shows sustained 850s that would be below normal for December.  Really liking how this is going.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

I’m still on board for a warmer period in the west as we move deeper into April. Possibly lasting into early May. The low pass/-ENSO system is going to fight it, but this MJO/GWO looks potent enough to overcome it temporarily.

It's not too unusual to get a big spike at some point in the spring during this type of regime.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Wow.  Solander Island just off the West Coast of Vancouver Island has plunged to 35 with brisk NW winds.  Very respectable.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Another really nice ECMWF run. 

I have noticed that the EPS has similar look in the long range even though its colder... could end being pretty nice.

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7580800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not too unusual to get a big spike at some point in the spring during this type of regime.

Just playing the odds, I expect at least one nice* warm spell next month.

*At least, I will enjoy it.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z GFS ensemble shows sustained 850s that would be below normal for December.  Really liking how this is going.

"Ladies and gentlemen please refrain from stepping on the rug. This exhibit is temporarily closed for your safety. A fast pass for any attraction will be issued for your inconvenience"

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