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March 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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I promise there are tears of joy under these glasses. @MR.SNOWMIZERis arguably the most gracious person on this board. ūüôŹūüŹĽ I cannot thank you enough for this. Following the weather provides a type of p

Friends, This is OT so please forgive me for disrupting your weather discussions. I just want to provide another update since my last post few weeks back about my mother contracting covid. U

52F and beautiful in downtown Springfield. If someone needs a badass to install a weather station, then call up @SilverFallsAndrew because I can’t thank him enough for helping me with this. And @

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18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Will probably end up being the warmest and driest¬†Nina spring in decades.¬†ūüĎć

Definitely not the warmest, but maybe one of the driest if the second half of May doesn’t perform (could be a wet period).

Low pass analogs filtered for intraseasonal activity definitely lean warm/ridgy from mid/late April into early/mid May. Much of that stems from seasonal dynamics that alter the relationship(s) between the tropics and middle/high latitude wave pools.

It should be noted that the same nature of tropical forcing, once deeper into summer, better-teleconnects to western troughing yet again. And in this case, when filtering for (likely) intraseasonal variability, it just so happens the warm signals are lined up for mid/late April into early/mid May, and then another quick one in early June. Lots of clustering there.

After that the deck appears to tilt substantially back towards cool/troughy during the second half of June, and especially July (which, interestingly, has a stronger cool signal than June in almost all of the time-adjusted analogs).

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Definitely not the warmest, but maybe one of the driest if the second half of May doesn’t perform (could be a wet period).

Low pass analogs filtered for intraseasonal activity definitely lean warm/ridgy from mid/late April into early/mid May. Much of that stems from seasonal dynamics that alter the relationship(s) between the tropics and middle/high latitude wave pools.

It should be noted that the same nature of tropical forcing, once deeper into summer, better-teleconnects to western troughing yet again. And in this case, when filtering for (likely) intraseasonal variability, it just so happens the warm signals are lined up for mid/late April into early/mid May, and then another quick one in early June.

After that the deck appears to tilt substantially back towards cool/troughy during the second half of June, and especially July (which, interestingly, has a stronger cool signal than June in almost all of the time-adjusted analogs).

Appreciate the breakdown. I also realized that this is very broad brushed and based on large scale forcings, so should be taken with a grain of salt as to how it pertains to the weather on the ground here. Which of course is your area of expertise anyway. 

Hopefully any warm spell manifests itself as a few spikes of warmth/heat as opposed to consistently above average weather. Kind of like 2008 (we had two big warm/heat events in mid-April and mid to late May that year despite a cold background state).

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Any time you have a 60-80 mph east wind and dewpoints near 0 before the first meaningful fall rain... there could be major problems.   Even up here where it has been much wetter over the last decade.

Recent summers have been (regionally) drier with less marine influence overall. Might see more of a NPAC High and onshore flow this summer compared to recent ones, but in general, wet winters followed by hot/dry summers (in theory) may only increase fire risk with more spring vegetation growth that subsequently dries out.

 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Recent summers have been (regionally) drier with less marine influence overall. Might see more of a NPAC High and onshore flow this summer compared to recent ones, but in general, wet winters followed by hot/dry summers in theory may only increase fire risk with more spring vegetation growth that subsequently dries out.

 

Yeah, reminds me of the silly discussion about Seattle's WETTEST DECADE EVER!!! last week. No one really addressed that the wide majority of increase in wet anomalies was in the cold half of the year (October-April) when it's already wet anyway. Warm seasons have generally trended longer and drier even in places where the overall annual total has trended wetter. Precip distribution is just about as if not more important as total amount when it comes to setups like we saw last labor day, or just regarding drought impacts in general.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Appreciate the breakdown. I also realized that this is very broad brushed and based on large scale forcings, so should be taken with a grain of salt as to how it pertains to the weather on the ground here. Which of course is your area of expertise anyway. 

Hopefully any warm spell manifests itself as a few spikes of warmth/heat as opposed to consistently above average weather. Kind of like 2008 (we had two big warm/heat events in mid-April and mid to late May that year despite a cold background state).

Of course it won’t be perpetual ridging. Just as there have been transient ridges during this (generally) cool cycle, there will be transient troughs during the coming warm cycle. It’s just biased to the warm/ridgy side for awhile in the averages. Eventually it’ll flip back.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Did not realize you were a wildfire expert.

I am not a wildfire expert, but I did attend an AMS meeting at the NWS office in 2009 where a wildfire expert spoke to the group. They said June is the pivotal month, a wet/cool June can delay a fire season significantly. The worst combo is a wet May followed by a dry/warm June. No one thought to ask what 8 years of dry March/April/May/June's would do. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Recent summers have been (regionally) drier with less marine influence overall. Might see more of a NPAC High and onshore flow this summer compared to recent ones, but in general, wet winters followed by hot/dry summers in theory may only increase fire risk with more spring vegetation growth that subsequently dries out.

 

2019 was not really a dry summer around here.    And there was almost no smoke or fires last summer until that extremely cold trough decided to crash the party.   The point is that if that trough did not happen last September then there would not have been the disaster in Oregon.     But even if it had been wet for the last decade down there with no drought... the timing of the cold trough before the first fall rain and the extreme fire conditions it caused might still have caused major issues.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, reminds me of the silly discussion about Seattle's WETTEST DECADE EVER!!! last week. No one really addressed that the wide majority of increase in wet anomalies was in the cold season when it's already wet anyway. Warm seasons have generally trended longer and drier even in places where the overall annual total has trended wetter. Precip distribution is just about as if not more important as total amount when it comes to setups like we saw last labor day, or just discussion drought impacts in general.

Not to mention, it was not the wettest decade anywhere else. In the past 10 years only 2 have been wetter than the long term average. 7 of the past 8 have now been below average (Including this year as the writing seems to be on the wall. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

2019 was not really a dry summer around here.    And there was almost no smoke or fires last summer until that extremely cold trough decided to crash the party.   The point is that if that trough did not happen last September then there would not have been the disaster in Oregon.     But even if it had been wet for the last decade down there with no drought... the timing of the cold trough before the first fall rain and the extreme fire conditions it caused might still have caused major issues.

 If we hadn't had a huge ice storm I would not have been without power for half of February. If I had not been born my soul would not be so tortured. 

Seriously though, yes it was not a bad fire season until the firestorm happened, but acting like a regional decade long drought did not play a role is ridiculous. I understand your house has seen a lot of rain and that is great. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2019 was not really a dry summer around here.    And there was almost no smoke or fires last summer until that extremely cold trough decided to crash the party.   The point is that if that trough did not happen last September then there would not have been the disaster in Oregon.     But even if it had been wet for the last decade down there with no drought... the timing of the cold trough before the first fall rain and the extreme fire conditions it caused might still have caused major issues.

Of course not all summers have followed that trend..2019 is one that was relatively wetter, regionally.

Like you said, it’s that dry, offshore/downslope flow that really lowers fuel moisture. Marine influence really helps slow evaporation rate with the higher relative humidity and increase in clouds.

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, reminds me of the silly discussion about Seattle's WETTEST DECADE EVER!!! last week. No one really addressed that the wide majority of increase in wet anomalies was in the cold half of the year (October-April) when it's already wet anyway. Warm seasons have generally trended longer and drier even in places where the overall annual total has trended wetter. Precip distribution is just about as if not more important as total amount when it comes to setups like we saw last labor day, or just discussion drought impacts in general.

Going back to 2010... Seattle is only about 4 inches below normal in total over 11 summers (JJA period from 2010-2020).

That averages a 0.36 deficit per year.     And JJA periods in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2019 were actually wetter than normal in Seattle.  That is 5 of the last 11 summers.   It has not been nearly as extreme up here as you are saying.  .

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Going back to 2010... Seattle is only about 4 inches below normal over 11 summers (JJA period from 2010-2020).

That averages a 0.36 deficit per year.     And JJA periods in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2019 were actually wetter than normal in Seattle.    It has not been nearly as extreme up here as you are saying.

2014 and 2015 were drier than average regionally. That despite the anomalies @ SEA.

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And annual extreme precip events have generally decreased in frequency in the NW US over the last 30 years.

Just an unfortunate regional phenomenon associated (mostly) with natural variability in the hemispheric circulation(s) and seasonality.

image.thumb.jpeg.e2573513e3ffe03ac41f680d21023029.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Of course not all summers have followed that trend..2019 is one that was relatively wetter.

Like you said, it’s that dry, offshore/downslope flow that really lowers fuel moisture. Marine influence really helps slow evaporation rate with the higher relative humidity and increase in clouds.

The framing going on here is insane. The trough was extremely cold hundreds of miles to our east. We had a record breaking stretch of high 500mb heights over our region with a very hot airmass. Obviously both were part of the same pattern but I can assure anyone if that cold trough had actually hit within 100 miles of the west side we would not have been talking about a wildfire outbreak.

And of course the context in which the event happened is also important. When you are coming off of literal years of drought the forest is going to tend to be a tinderbox if and when favorable fire conditions arrive. It's not like last summer was exactly wet either.

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Just now, Phil said:

2014 and 2015 were drier than average regionally. That despite the anomalies @ SEA.

Yes... its been a different story in Oregon.   We were specifically talking about the wettest decade ever in Seattle.   That happened.   And 5 of the last 11 summers have actually been wetter than normal up here as well. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The framing going on here is insane. The trough was extremely cold hundreds of miles to our east. We had a record breaking stretch of high 500mb heights over our region with a very hot airmass. Obviously both were part of the same pattern but I can assure anyone if that cold trough had actually hit within 100 miles of the west side we would not have been talking about a wildfire outbreak.

And of course the context in which the event happened is also important. When you are coming off of literal years of drought the forest is going to tend to be a tinderbox if and when favorable fire conditions arrive. It's not like last summer was exactly wet either.

 

Framing?   That trough caused a 60-80 mph east wind in western Oregon and ridiculously low dewpoints.  So it was not that far east.    We would not be talking about this if that one trough event did not happen.   There were very few fires in the summer of 2019 and 2020.   That trough was the trigger.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... its been a different story in Oregon.   We were specifically talking about the wettest decade ever in Seattle.   That happened.   And 5 of the last 11 summers have actually been wetter than normal up here as well. 

What do localized precip departures at SeaTac have to do with wildfires? Not sure what point you’re trying to make here, brother.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

What do local precip departures at SeaTac have to do with wildfires? Not sure what point you’re trying to make here, brother.

Troughs and rain R bad mmmmkayyy.

Mr. Mackey Mmkay GIF by South Park

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I drove back up to the ridge between the Butte Creek and Molalla drainages on Sunday afternoon. Very interesting to see how the fire moved in that area (Beachie Creek Fire). I had assumed the fire got up on the ridge and ran along it, as I knew the fire had gotten into the Butte Creek drainage, but when I drove past the junction of Elk Prairie and S. Butte Creek road, that area was untouched. It looks like the fire got Into the Molalla river drainage, perhaps via the south fork drainage, and then pushed straight west up the canyon slopes and onto the ridge. 

46549B06-D38D-4AEF-BBDF-DCA488ED8733.jpeg

7C23B40B-3C75-4F14-918B-BEB0B1012054.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We're probably just a few weeks away from spot fires popping up from the Beachie Creek Fire. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

What do localized precip departures at SeaTac have to do with wildfires? Not sure what point you’re trying to make here, brother.

Nothing to do with Oregon.   But we were talking about the wetness in Seattle being only in the rainy season.    When in fact 5 of the last 11 summers were also wetter than average.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I can also say the narrative some pro-timber right wing folks are spreading that the fires died out because they got onto private timber land and couldn't cross the checkerboard of clear cuts, is total BS. On the western edge of the Beachie Creek fire, the clear cuts and smaller younger tree farms were absolutely torched, the more mature timber was where it kind of died out. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You were doing so well ANdrew. Now you are flying to close to the sun and melting you're wax wings.

But you know I am not wrong.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Despite this being a pretty enlightening discussion regarding local fire climatology in which many good points were made if one would only take the time to read, the stage now is set for someone to pop in with a BRILLIANT zinger like

Haha you know the weather is slow when we are having a stupid discussion about last years wildfires must be spring on the forum LoLOlLoOlOlOllllLL

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August 2019 had some very very wet thunderstorms in Central and Eastern Oregon. Early in the month. That had to have helped the fire situation that summer. I was camping at Delintment Lake in northern Harney County around August 4th, and it had to have rained several inches that day. Torrential downpours for hours and hours. 

  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

But you know I am not wrong.

I don't think there will be fires burning in the Cascade foothills by mid April. Veering into Tiger territory there.

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I don’t think short term weather patterns that stand as huge outliers during what is very often climatically the driest time of the year during the already dry season is the best way to worry-sport about drought. The long term drought was somewhere in the equation but some intellectual honesty is needed here to address the true fire science side of things.

Had there been a run of wetter than normal weather in the short term preceding that event was far more relevant. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Jesse said:

I don't think there will be fires burning in the Cascade foothills by mid April. Veering into Tiger territory there.

If we get into the 80s at some point, be it April or early May the burn scar is going to put off some smoke. I drove by the Shellburg Falls trailhead in early February on a rainy morning and there were smoldering stumps visible from the road. 

  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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31 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think short term weather patterns that stand as huge outliers during what is very often climatically the driest time of the year during the already dry season is the best way to worry-sport about drought. The long term drought was somewhere in the equation but some intellectual honesty is needed here to address the true fire science side of things.

Had there been a run of wetter than normal weather in the short term preceding that event was far more relevant. 

Good thing for us the only person here capable of true intellectual honesty just chimed¬†in ūü•į;)

Seems like you are mostly reiterating points that have already been made. Obviously the short term weather event last year played a huge role and was a highly unusual and devastating hybrid of a strong early season clipper well to our east and a very significant 600dm heat ridge along the coast. Moving beyond that, of course recent context trumps all. As you said (Mark blogged about this too) if we had even had a minor wet period in late August much could have been mitigated. I can assure you background drought plays a large role as well, though. I don’t know how much you got up into the Opal Creek wilderness and Clackamas drainage pre-wildfire but there was a tremendous amount of standing dead wood up there, most of the tree mortality appearing in the wake of the off the charts 2015 and 2018 summers/dry seasons. Fire really likes that stuff and many of these forests were already primed for some sort of event. It just so happened that the event happened to be triggerd by a really meteorologically rare/notable setup in the midst of a dryish spell at the end of a fairly average warm season. A perfect storm in many ways.

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nothing to do with Oregon.   But we were talking about the wetness in Seattle being only in the rainy season.    When in fact 5 of the last 11 summers were also wetter than average.

Most of WA was drier than average during the summers of 2014 and 2015. You’re extrapolating localized precip anomalies as if they apply statewide.

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Just now, Phil said:

Most of WA was drier than average during the summers of 2014 and 2015. You’re extrapolating localized precip anomalies as if they apply statewide.

Nope... never said statewide either.    We were talking about Seattle wet anomalies being only in the wet season.    Jesse made a point about Seattle.   So I followed up with more information about Seattle.   You are extrapolating this side conversation to the situation in Oregon.   It has been very different down there which has been discussed many times.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GFS is still showing that ridge for later next week... like its 00Z run showed.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I like fire when it makes my food good. 

Fire can be a really good thing in overgrown forests too.

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2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

29/55 here yesterday and starting off this beautiful day with a low of 30*

Spring sun and yard daisy‚Äôs on the Sound ūüėĪ

E9EB8CE1-87B7-460A-91F5-C5C764A1DAFF.jpeg

Did you take that pic?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Despite this being a pretty enlightening discussion regarding local fire climatology in which many good points were made if one would only take the time to read, the stage now is set for someone to pop in with a BRILLIANT zinger like

Haha you know the weather is slow when we are having a stupid discussion about last years wildfires must be spring on the forum LoLOlLoOlOlOllllLL

I think we should have Cliff Mass on to weigh in...He has had a few blogs about this subject. 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I think we should have Cliff Mass on to weigh in...He has had a few blogs about this subject. 

I would take the opinion of just about any poster here more seriously than his.

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Got down to an impressive 27 degrees here earlier this morning. Now up to 48 with nice sunshine.

I could get used to this. Unfortunately, we go back to reality just in time for the weekend.¬†ūüėĎ

 

Good chance that Saturday is nice... the 00Z ECMWF showed Saturday being like today.¬† ¬† ¬†Sunday is never nice now.¬† ¬†Apparently that is not allowed this year.¬†¬†ūüėĀ

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Good thing for us the only person here capable of true intellectual honesty just chimed¬†in ūü•į;)

Seems like you are reiterating points that have already been made. Obviously the short term weather event last year played a huge role and was a highly unusual and devastating hybrid of an early season clipper well to our east and a very significant heat ridge along the coast. Moving beyond that, obviously recent context trumps all. As you said, if we had even had a minor wet period in late August much could have been mitigated. I can assure you background drought plays a large role as well, though. I don’t know how much you got up into the Opal Creek wilderness and Clackamas drainage pre-wildfire but there was a tremendous amount of standing dead wood up there, most of the tree mortality appearing in the wake of the off the charts 2015 and 2018 summers/dry seasons. Fire really likes that stuff and many of these forests were already primed for a big event. It just so happened that the big event happened to be a really meteorologically rare/notable one too in the midst of a dryish spell at the end of a fairly average warm season. A perfect storm in many ways.

 

 

I’m sure long term drought was a factor on some level, among many things. Although when it comes to truly explosive fire movement in the canopy, deadwood doesn’t quite cut it (no pun intended). Obviously decades of poor forest management is another juicy element.

 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m sure long term drought was a factor on some level, among many things. Although when it comes to truly explosive fire movement in the canopy, deadwood doesn’t quite cut it (no pun intended). Obviously decades of poor forest management is another juicy element.

 

The way the wind spread those flames was something to behold. I don't know if anyone here has posted the video from the automated camera on a mountaintop near Detroit the evening of the 8th but it is downright frightening.

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2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

My iPhone does wonders!   Pano shot

That is an awesome pic... I assumed it was a stock photo that you pulled off the internet.  

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is an awesome pic... I assumed it was a stock photo that you pulled off the internet.  

Thanks Tim for the compliment.....my high school photography classes paid off!  I love the photo as well

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Thanks Tim for the compliment.....my high school photography classes paid off!  I love the photo as well

I always enjoy your photos and really all your posts on here. It is nice to have some regular posters on here who are not as immature and combative as myself a few of the others. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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