Tom Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 On the heels of a Great Lakes beast, model consensus seems to be honing in on another winter storm ejecting out of the Rockies and developing over the Plains. From there, models are having a tough time trying to figure out the track/intensity of this storm due to the Christmas Eve system. Still lots of time to dial in on this storm potential, but it looks like another Plains to Lakes system that bears watching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 What does the euro end up showing after that, Tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 GGEM: 132 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif 144 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif 156 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/accum/SN_120-240_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 Weak sauce on the Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 21, 2014 Report Share Posted December 21, 2014 This storm is starting to look weaker and weaker. Also models are trending north, so it looks more likely to affect northern Iowa into Minnesota. Only the GEM shows heavier snow with the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted December 21, 2014 Report Share Posted December 21, 2014 Along load of **** for SEMI! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 21, 2014 Report Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yep about ready to put the axe in this one. It's snowed one day here and rained one other day the entire month of December. Only .3" of snow too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 21, 2014 Report Share Posted December 21, 2014 Can we delete this thread?! LOL Unless we need to watch for where the flurries or 1-3" amounts are going to fall. I guess this is a good thing though- won't have to worry about traveling on Christmas or the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2014 Can we delete this thread?! LOL Unless we need to watch for where the flurries or 1-3" amounts are going to fall. I guess this is a good thing though- won't have to worry about traveling on Christmas or the weekendNot necessary, still plenty of time to see this unfold. Patience my friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 21, 2014 Report Share Posted December 21, 2014 I agree, far from out of the woods. In case nobody has noticed, the models don't seem to have a clue what these storms will do. I have rarely seen so many flops from all of the models before. Somebody is going to get some nice snows to close out December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2014 I agree, far from out of the woods. In case nobody has noticed, the models don't seem to have a clue what these storms will do. I have rarely seen so many flops from all of the models before. Somebody is going to get some nice snows to close out December.Indeed, and a lot has to do with the amount of cold coming into the pattern and the changing teleconnections. The models have a ton of figuring out to do over the next few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Northern wave drops a couple inches here on the nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Man this thing has really pushed Northwest in the past few runs. I can only hope that storm after the 26-27th will do the same so that we can have a chance at seeing something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 Still time for a shift back south. Not counting on it, but one can hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 22, 2014 Report Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's all over but the crying.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Another set of runs with nothing to show for the storm to write home about. We're getting into the NAM range. Let's see what it shows at the end of it's run. I'm guessing 14"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Weak wave on the GFS. Might be good enough for a 1-3" snowfall at this point.Better than nothing in a boring weather month. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Man we just stink over here in the plains. I know winter goes in cycles, so I would imagine we are in our slim years right now. Looking back there were a lot of winters that had under 20 inches and even some under 10. It would always bounce back a couple years later with some really big winters. I think maybe the late period of this decade could have some better snowy winters, hopefully. I sure can't take much more of this under 20 crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I know this system has lost alot of steam compared to runs a few days ago, but the 18z NAM showed this energy potentially digging a bit more south towards the end of the run. 12z GFS kinda was showing it but not really. Until this wave of energy arrives into the Balloon Network and gets sampled, there may be a surprise in store for those in Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 As I write this, 18z GFS showing the same thing and trying to dig this system farther south. Has a SLP trying to develop near Amarillo, TX @ 69HR with moisture coming up from the GOM. Let's see if this can develop over the next couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 This bears watching! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Idk, we will see what the 0z runs show tonight. I'm not expecting to be pleasantly surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 yawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 yep still a joke run on the NAM. moisture appears to be a problem as return flow doesn't even set up off the GOM until 18Z 12/25 and the storm moves through Nebraska 24 hours. Not enough time for any substantial moisture return. NEXT!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 GFS showing a few streaks of 2"+ in the central Plains this weekend. Would be nice to see this wave strengthen up a bit ahead of the Arctic air. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Something is better than nothing...hopefully the models can get this system better organized out in the Plains over the next day or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Really like the look of the 12z nam for Nebraska. Local mets starting to mention it but are very conservative on estimates, that is kind of their m.o. If we can lay down a nice snow cover it should set the stage for the arctic air mass next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 It's a shame we have to name 2" a winter storm, but that's the pattern we've been in the last couple of years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Central and western Nebraska have the best chance of cashing in on this one. Lincoln and Omaha look to be skimmed by it. I can only hope that what happened in Chicago will happen here and maybe we can get an eastern shift at the last moment so that I can get some plows on the ground 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Hopefully it can keep shifting east for all of Nebraska. Western Nebraska has done well this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 GGEM; much of this in Iowa and Illinois occurs on Saturday. http://i.imgur.com/h680wTN.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Would love to see a little snow. Doesn't feel right without any snow yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Nws Hastings says nam is to robust and thus just say very light amounts in the next week. Gfs also gives us a good chance on the 30th but mets just say flurries. I will see if they are correct or there typical conservative forecasts. At this point no model can be thrown out or followed 100%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 Nws Hastings says nam is to robust and thus just say very light amounts in the next week. Gfs also gives us a good chance on the 30th but mets just say flurries. I will see if they are correct or there typical conservative forecasts. At this point no model can be thrown out or followed 100%. That's right! These models have shown big snows before and it could always come back. There is a lot of arctic air coming through and that almost always spins up big systems. Won't have to worry about cold air this time!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 just noticed winter weather advisories in So Dakota and western Nebraska for 1-6" of snow. hopefully it can hold together as it moves across the area! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 It's a shame we have to name 2" a winter storm, but that's the pattern we've been in the last couple of years Notice the wording from NWS in North Platte...its too bad its not in your area so it wasn't really necessary to change the title... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA STARTING CHRISTMASAFTERNOON... .SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA DURING CHRISTMASAFTERNOON AS A WINTER STORM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND CONTINUEINTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AREEXPECTED FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OFA CHAPPELL...TO MULLEN...TO VALENTINE LINE. IN ADDITION TO THESNOWFALL...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHTINTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OFBLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educatorjen Posted December 24, 2014 Report Share Posted December 24, 2014 That's right! These models have shown big snows before and it could always come back. There is a lot of arctic air coming through and that almost always spins up big systems. Won't have to worry about cold air this time!! Crossing my fingers!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 12z GGEM more generous with the snowfall...the SLP looking better organized and tapping more moisture out of GOM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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