Tom Posted March 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 Just now, Beltrami Island said: Not that the CO ski resorts won't get any snow, but this is a Front Range favored setup where the prominent CO resorts are on the opposite side of the Rockies. If this things keeps shifting more into Wyoming keep these webcams in mind. They are on the east side of the Snowy Mountain Range of SE Wyoming: https://www.snowyrangeski.com/webcams/ https://www.coloradowebcam.net/camera/centennial-wy-mountain-view-hotel-cafe-hwy-130-webcam I totally agree this is a Front Range storm...I just like spending time in a resort community when its snowing in the mountains... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 12z GFS & GFSv16 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 12z GDPS 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 There is a south trend this morning. 12z UK 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 12z Euro is south as well, at least farther east. The Euro actually has the initial heavy snow lifting well north, with much less in Colorado. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 Missed to the south in mid March 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 For eastern Iowa, it may well come down to how quickly the system ejects eastward. If it is slower, the moisture plume will crap out before reaching us. If the system is faster, we could get good snow before it weakens. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 10, 2021 Report Share Posted March 10, 2021 Nice weenie runs for mby. I'll get excited when it's a couple days out. Still feeling it goes north. I'm enjoying the mild stretch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 Yea this is gonna be an interesting one. I like potential for TSSN(due to some fairly steep lapse rates aloft and very strong FGEN) in that band especially as modeled in the more aggressive guidance. Could be a very quick hitting 6+ for someone. Should also note that this system is favorably timed overnight so shouldn't have sun angle problems. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 It's always so much fun watching these models do such a horrible job of handling these March storms. GFS has me in play, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 00z GFS, GFSv16, GDPS 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 UK went from suppressed south this morning to way north this evening. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 00z Euro, like the UK, is also way north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 00z EPS...backing away from any meaningful snows for NE members... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 6z GFS Mean. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 Nice.... Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Denver CO 427 AM MST Thu Mar 11 2021 COZ038>041-043-112330- /O.CON.KBOU.WS.A.0001.210313T0700Z-210315T1200Z/ Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield County-North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-Central and South Weld County- Including the cities of Elbert, Roggen, Arvada, Larkspur, Boulder, City of Denver, Aurora, Littleton, Brighton, Highlands Ranch, Fort Lupton, Loveland, Kiowa, Eaton, Longmont, Fondis, Denver International Airport, Golden, Parker, Castle Rock, Lakewood, Fort Collins, Greeley, Nunn, and Hereford 427 AM MST Thu Mar 11 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 15 to 25 inches possible. Accumulations up to 30 inches possible near Boulder and Fort Collins. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Fort Collins, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver, Denver, Castle Rock, and Greeley. * WHEN...From late Friday night through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Even better... Quote ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 32 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Areas of southeast Wyoming along and east of the Laramie Range to the Nebraska Panhandle. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact travel Thursday evening through Sunday. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 6z Euro Contol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Well the snow talk was fun while it lasted, but chances for snow around here look slim. On the other hand, this forecast should put a large dent in the drought. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 GFS looking more like the Euro now. Backed off on snow totals dramatically. The GFsv16 still hanging on though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Row, row, row your boat. Wow. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 27 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Row, row, row your boat. Wow. Haven’t seen a precipitation map like this since the flood of July 2019. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 Canadian still lays down the snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 This is decreasing lately. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 I feel like we go through this every year. Models show one last major dump and it always ends up a big nothing burger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 12z Euro. The snow chances continue to disappear for most of the region. What could have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 11, 2021 Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 Euro is way north again. What's happening is that, on a few models, the upper ridge that was forecasted to be directly north of the system, which forced the system due east, is now sliding off to the east more, which allows the system to cut north. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Euro is way north again. What's happening is that, on a few models, the upper ridge that was forecasted to be directly north of the system, which forced the system due east, is now sliding off to the east more, which allows the system to cut north. Slower ejection is the problem, otherwise this would have been a great set up for a major snowstorm in the heartland. On the flip side, it’s Good to see all that moisture. The trowal is going to be fierce looking on radar. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 12, 2021 Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 12, 2021 Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 My sister lives in denver and my wife has alot of family in Ft. Collins. Sounds like they are going to get a thumping. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 12, 2021 Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 More blocking has returned on tonight's Euro, snow is back south. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 12, 2021 Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 00z Canadian still has snow across Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 5 hours ago, Hawkeye said: More blocking has returned on tonight's Euro, snow is back south. GFSv16 & GGEM for the win??? It's really been the only 2 models that have been rather consistent showing the ribbon of snow across the MW. The Euro has been the most inconsistent it seems from way north to south. Interesting battle among the various models. Around these parts, the long awaited storm has made it into the valley and yes, it is raining heavily in the central valley across PHX metro and points west. The band of precip is having a tough time tracking east but it will eventually. Up in the mountains, the models have been upping the snowfall amounts in excess of 1 Foot for Flagstaff/Snowbowl Ski Resort and the White Mountains in the eastern part of the state. I am really digging this potential as I might have to take a trip up north to see this snowfall. 00z Euro... Historic snows are still looking like a good bet for the Foothills/Front Range and Denver metro.... This system may produce cold core convective storms later today in the valley... Quote By this afternoon, weakening mid-level winds will be turning more out of the west across south-central Arizona, while the vorticity forced ascent also begins to shift over eastern Arizona. This will likely bring a brief lull in the shower activity early this afternoon, but steepening mid-level lapse rates from Phoenix westward into the Lower CO River Valley and some peaks of sunshine are likely to bring scattered convective showers and low-topped thunderstorms. Rainfall rates with these convective cells will be better than what will occur this morning, but most areas should again see light rainfall amounts as the cells will be quite progressive in nature. These cold-core convective type showers and/or thunderstorms will also be capable of producing small hail, which is typical for a deep closed low weather system early in the spring. By Saturday, I think we will be seeing some snow capped mountain peaks to my east as snow levels drop to 3,500 feet. This should produce some gorgeous views of the landscape transformed to Winter. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 Pretty substantial change for IA peeps per the latest 00z EPS... 00z Euro Control... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 Flagstaff already reporting 9.8" of snow...Let it Snow...hope they can score a couple Feet by the time things end late Saturday.... Sheesh, Snowbowl ski resort is already up to 17"! https://www.snowbowl.ski/?q=webcams Flagstaff web cams... https://www.flagstaffarizona.org/webcams/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 12, 2021 Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 Models are still shifting around early next week. The NAM is now in range. It had the snow centered farther south on last night's 00z run, but it has shifted north somewhat this morning. The GFS is drifting back south, but not back to where it had been. 12z NAM, GFS, GFSv16 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 12, 2021 Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 12z GDPS (Canadian) - No change, very consistent. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 12, 2021 Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 12z UK Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 12, 2021 Report Share Posted March 12, 2021 12z Euro - A bit north and slightly weaker than the 00z run. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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