Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 00z UK Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 .31” of rain so far. Heaviest rain should come later tonight and tomorrow. Models show around 3” of rain by Monday morning. Also have a wind advisory for winds up to 50 mph tomorrow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 00z Euro - a bit north Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 Hastings, NE is already over 3" of rain. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 09Z RAP- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 3 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Hastings, NE is already over 3" of rain. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 Flood Advisory Flood Advisory National Weather Service Hastings NE 547 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 NEC001-035-061-181-141315- /O.CON.KGID.FA.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T1315Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Adams NE-Clay NE-Franklin NE-Webster NE- 547 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021 ...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS, WESTERN CLAY, EASTERN FRANKLIN AND WEBSTER COUNTIES... At 547 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. The stream gauge along the Thompson Creek at Riverton is nearing flood stage, and minor flooding may be already occuring along other creeks and streams in the area. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Hastings, Red Cloud, Harvard, Franklin, Blue Hill, Juniata, Campbell, Glenvil, Bladen, Roseland, Holstein, Trumbull, Ayr, Inland, Riverton, Cowles, Rosemont, Inavale and Hansen. Rainfall rates have decreased, but additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is still expected over the area through Sunday. This additional rain may continue the flooding risk. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying spots. && LAT...LON 4025 9885 4035 9876 4035 9872 4040 9872 4061 9855 4070 9845 4070 9804 4040 9821 4028 9834 4000 9854 4000 9899 4014 9902 $$ Mangels Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 Hastings,NE ASOS tipping bucket shows 4.3" in last 24 hours. Probably add 10% due to spillage in the tipping process if rates were ever near 1" or hour or more. Be interested to see what some manual reports are. KHSI 141153Z AUTO 08020G33KT 2 1/2SM RA BR OVC004 06/04 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 06035/1125 VIS 2V4 CIG 004V008 SLP132 P0016 60145 70430 T00560044 10067 20050 56019 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 I'm happy to report that over the last few days, PHX and most of the valley has picked up anywhere between .25-.50" of rain, while that is a drop in the bucket for what mid westerners are used to, this is about as good as it gets for one system. PHX officially picked up 0.36" and is 0.12" shy of normal for the month. On the other side of the coin, the mountains up north did very good in the snow dept. The ski resort Snowbowl up in Flagstaff picked up an enormous amount of snow with 28" of powder!!! It is sold out for the weekend. This is pure awesomeness since the models weren't really juiced up until the last 12 hours or so before the storm. Interestingly, this storms dynamics really showed itself as the NWS issued the new "snow squall warning" just south of Flagstaff yesterday as the cold core ULL tracked over head and produced squalls up across the mountains. Parts of the interstate I-17 N into Flagstaff were closed yesterday afternoon due to whiteouts/spin outs and treacherous travel. https://www.azfamily.com/news/winter-storm-shuts-down-parts-of-several-major-highways-around-northern-arizona/article_2b58b4ea-8452-11eb-acf3-5b413d4d7925.html?block_id=667537 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 HRRR is the best model for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. But the 12z GFS took a nice turn to the cooler side as well. Gonna just be a nowcast here. Rates will have to be extremely heavy though to overcome the warm ground and preceding rain down here. Certainly can happen though as we’ve seen many times. But we’ll need good flake size and solid rates. I’m thinking 1-2” IMBY and any more will be a pleasant surprise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 Up to 1.94” of rainfall so far. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 Just checked my gauge as of 11:15 am, 4.25”. Whoa. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: HRRR is the best model for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. But the 12z GFS took a nice turn to the cooler side as well. Gonna just be a nowcast here. Rates will have to be extremely heavy though to overcome the warm ground and preceding rain down here. Certainly can happen though as we’ve seen many times. But we’ll need good flake size and solid rates. I’m thinking 1-2” IMBY and any more will be a pleasant surprise The timing is good, though, starting just before sunrise. Models are still showing a wide range of snow totals. The new GFS is better, but, oddly, the GFSv16 dropped us to almost nothing. It's going to be a close race between the precip band moving up from the southwest and cold air intrusion coming from the nw. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 12z models HRRR NAM 3kNAM RDPS GDPS GFS GFSv16 UK (10:1) - actual accumulation will be a lower ratio Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 DVN's map... going conservative around here Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 DMX snow graphic Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 The Euro keeps drifting north, down to only 2-3" here now. The Euro and HRRR are not on the same page at all. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 3.25” so far at LNK 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 The wind has really picked up here over the last few hours. 18z HRRR 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 Tough forecast for the area. Gonna stick with ~2" in Iowa City, but that could easily be much higher or nothing at all depending on the speed at which evap cooling can work. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 There's this super subtle detail on the HRRR that I think is likely responsible for the heavier snow further south. On the 18z run, there's a patch of really quite dry surface dewpoints in the mid to upper teens that gets advected in later tonight. As this area of lower dews gets moistened, it increases the effects of evap cooling and leads to an overall cooler column than other models at the same time ---> heavier snow further south. It's more evident on skew Ts but I cant gif those 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 Good luck to IA peeps with picking up some snow and adding to the stats! The I-80 train continues. Wouldn't mind getting more snow before the season is up but the window is closing. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 18z NAM & 3kNAM... a little improvement compared to 12z. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 Already sleeting here but its still 45° I've been nudged up to 5-8" now 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 18z RDPS... might be the lowest it has ever been for Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 New DVN and DMX snow graphics Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 18z GFS/GFSv16... much heavier into the WI/IL border region. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 14, 2021 Report Share Posted March 14, 2021 I just got home from Indiana and haven't been keeping up with weather. Apparently I'm getting missed to the south again? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 Been coming down pretty good the last couple of hours. 2.3” today and 2.68” total. Should easily cross 3+” total judging by radar. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 272 miles east of the Wyoming border. I bet this will go to Grand Island then York and possibly all the way to Lincoln. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 HRRR going off 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 The HRRR would be fun, but it's likely overdoing the intensity of the snow here shortly after the change-over. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 Heavy rain blossoming across eastern Nebraska. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The HRRR would be fun, but it's likely overdoing the intensity of the snow here shortly after the change-over. It’s gonna happen. Go with it. LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 00z NAM & 3kNAM The NAMs continue to be just a bit warmer than the HRRR, which matters a lot in this scenario. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 I hope this can hit the Wisconsin Dell area hard. Would be pretty cool to have one more day of real winter riding at Cascade. And they're doing a thing where if you have a pass from ANYWHERE else you get a free lift ticket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 00z RDPS Models are fluctuating, wildy at times, in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. This is due to the precip band and cold air arriving here at about the same time, so any tiny change in one or the other can change our snow total by inches. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 00z GFS & GFSv16 Given the regular GFS's thermal issues, I would have expected the GFSv16 to be snowier for Cedar Rapids, but the models are flipped. The v16 is seeing thermal issues around CR. I can't see Iowa City getting 6" while CR gets 2". Update: I just checked the zoomed-in v16 and it appears to be a bit glitchy. At 12z, it has heavy snow south and east of Cedar Rapids, but freezing rain north of that through Cedar Rapids. It makes no sense. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 15, 2021 Report Share Posted March 15, 2021 Sleet in Iowa City already. Interesting. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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