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3/13 - 3/16 Powerful March Storm


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Flood Advisory


Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Hastings NE
547 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

NEC001-035-061-181-141315-
/O.CON.KGID.FA.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T1315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams NE-Clay NE-Franklin NE-Webster NE-
547 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR ADAMS, WESTERN CLAY, EASTERN FRANKLIN AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...

At 547 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have
fallen. The stream gauge along the Thompson Creek at Riverton is
nearing flood stage, and minor flooding may be already occuring
along other creeks and streams in the area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hastings, Red Cloud, Harvard, Franklin, Blue Hill, Juniata,
  Campbell, Glenvil, Bladen, Roseland, Holstein, Trumbull, Ayr,
  Inland, Riverton, Cowles, Rosemont, Inavale and Hansen.

Rainfall rates have decreased, but additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5
inches is still expected over the area through Sunday. This
additional rain may continue the flooding risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9885 4035 9876 4035 9872 4040 9872
      4061 9855 4070 9845 4070 9804 4040 9821
      4028 9834 4000 9854 4000 9899 4014 9902

$$

Mangels

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Hastings,NE ASOS tipping bucket shows 4.3" in last 24 hours. Probably add 10% due to spillage in the  tipping process if rates were ever near 1" or hour or more. Be interested to see what some manual reports are.

KHSI 141153Z AUTO 08020G33KT 2 1/2SM RA BR OVC004 06/04 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 06035/1125 VIS 2V4 CIG 004V008 SLP132 P0016 60145 70430 T00560044 10067 20050 56019

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'm happy to report that over the last few days, PHX and most of the valley has picked up anywhere between .25-.50" of rain, while that is a drop in the bucket for what mid westerners are used to, this is about as good as it gets for one system.  PHX officially picked up 0.36" and is 0.12" shy of normal for the month. 

 

On the other side of the coin, the mountains up north did very good in the snow dept.  The ski resort Snowbowl up in Flagstaff picked up an enormous amount of snow with 28" of powder!!!  It is sold out for the weekend.  This is pure awesomeness since the models weren't really juiced up until the last 12 hours or so before the storm.  Interestingly, this storms dynamics really showed itself as the NWS issued the new "snow squall warning" just south of Flagstaff yesterday as the cold core ULL tracked over head and produced squalls up across the mountains.

Image

 

Parts of the interstate I-17 N into Flagstaff were closed yesterday afternoon due to whiteouts/spin outs and treacherous travel.

Image

 

 

https://www.azfamily.com/news/winter-storm-shuts-down-parts-of-several-major-highways-around-northern-arizona/article_2b58b4ea-8452-11eb-acf3-5b413d4d7925.html?block_id=667537

 

Arizona Department of Transportation Maps

 

 

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HRRR is the best model for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. But the 12z GFS took a nice turn to the cooler side as well. Gonna just be a nowcast here. Rates will have to be extremely heavy though to overcome the warm ground and preceding rain down here. Certainly can happen though as we’ve seen many times. But we’ll need good flake size and solid rates. I’m thinking 1-2” IMBY and any more will be a pleasant surprise 

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

HRRR is the best model for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. But the 12z GFS took a nice turn to the cooler side as well. Gonna just be a nowcast here. Rates will have to be extremely heavy though to overcome the warm ground and preceding rain down here. Certainly can happen though as we’ve seen many times. But we’ll need good flake size and solid rates. I’m thinking 1-2” IMBY and any more will be a pleasant surprise 

The timing is good, though, starting just before sunrise.  Models are still showing a wide range of snow totals.  The new GFS is better, but, oddly, the GFSv16 dropped us to almost nothing.  It's going to be a close race between the precip band moving up from the southwest and cold air intrusion coming from the nw.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z models

HRRR

snku_acc.us_mw.png

NAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

3kNAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

RDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

GDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

GFS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

GFSv16

snku_acc.us_mw.png

UK (10:1) - actual accumulation will be a lower ratio

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro keeps drifting north, down to only 2-3" here now.  The Euro and HRRR are not on the same page at all.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tough forecast for the area. Gonna stick with ~2" in Iowa City, but that could easily be much higher or nothing at all depending on the speed at which evap cooling can work.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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There's this super subtle detail on the HRRR that I think is likely responsible for the heavier snow further south. 

On the 18z run, there's a patch of really quite dry surface dewpoints in the mid to upper teens that gets advected in later tonight. As this area of lower dews gets moistened, it increases the effects of evap cooling and leads to an overall cooler column than other models at the same time ---> heavier snow further south.

It's more evident on skew Ts but I cant gif those

floop-hrrr-2021031418.sfctd_b.us_mw.gif.d99bab62900cc1dfaf2ad354d6b33eda.gif

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Good luck to IA peeps with picking up some snow and adding to the stats! The I-80 train continues. Wouldn't mind getting more snow before the season is up but the window is closing. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The HRRR would be fun, but it's likely overdoing the intensity of the snow here shortly after the change-over.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z NAM & 3kNAM

The NAMs continue to be just a bit warmer than the HRRR, which matters a lot in this scenario.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z RDPS

Models are fluctuating, wildy at times, in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.  This is due to the precip band and cold air arriving here at about the same time, so any tiny change in one or the other can change our snow total by inches.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z GFS & GFSv16

Given the regular GFS's thermal issues, I would have expected the GFSv16 to be snowier for Cedar Rapids, but the models are flipped.  The v16 is seeing thermal issues around CR.  I can't see Iowa City getting 6" while CR gets 2".

Update:  I just checked the zoomed-in v16 and it appears to be a bit glitchy.  At 12z, it has heavy snow south and east of Cedar Rapids, but freezing rain north of that through Cedar Rapids.  It makes no sense.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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