3/13 - 3/16 Powerful March Storm

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS, GFSv16, GDPS

 

[Hawkeye]

UK went from suppressed south this morning to way north this evening.

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro, like the UK, is also way north.

[Tom]

00z EPS...backing away from any meaningful snows for NE members...

[Clinton]

6z GFS Mean.   

 

[Tom]

Nice....

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver CO
427 AM MST Thu Mar 11 2021

COZ038>041-043-112330-
/O.CON.KBOU.WS.A.0001.210313T0700Z-210315T1200Z/
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-Boulder And
Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield County-North
Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and Arapahoe
Counties/East Broomfield County-Elbert/Central and East Douglas
Counties Above 6000 Feet-Central and South Weld County-
Including the cities of Elbert, Roggen, Arvada, Larkspur,
Boulder, City of Denver, Aurora, Littleton, Brighton, Highlands
Ranch, Fort Lupton, Loveland, Kiowa, Eaton, Longmont, Fondis,
Denver International Airport, Golden, Parker, Castle Rock,
Lakewood, Fort Collins, Greeley, Nunn, and Hereford
427 AM MST Thu Mar 11 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 15 to 25
  inches possible. Accumulations up to 30 inches possible near
  Boulder and Fort Collins. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Fort Collins, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver,
  Denver, Castle Rock, and Greeley.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

 

Even better...

Quote

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of
  18 to 32 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Areas of southeast Wyoming along and east of the
  Laramie Range to the Nebraska Panhandle.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact travel Thursday evening
  through Sunday.

 

[Clinton]

6z Euro Contol

[snowstorm83]

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well the snow talk was fun while it lasted, but chances for snow around here look slim. On the other hand, this forecast should put a large dent in the drought. 

[bud2380]

GFS looking more like the Euro now.  Backed off on snow totals dramatically.  The GFsv16 still hanging on though.

[CentralNebWeather]

[bud2380]

8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Row, row, row your boat.  Wow.  

[CentralNebWeather]

27 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Row, row, row your boat.  Wow.  

Haven’t seen a precipitation map like this since the flood of July 2019. 

[bud2380]

Canadian still lays down the snow

 

[CentralNebWeather]

This is decreasing lately. 

[gimmesnow]

I feel like we go through this every year. Models show one last major dump and it always ends up a big nothing burger.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro. The snow chances continue to disappear for most of the region. What could have been. 

[Hawkeye]

Euro is way north again.  What's happening is that, on a few models, the upper ridge that was forecasted to be directly north of the system, which forced the system due east, is now sliding off to the east more, which allows the system to cut north.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro is way north again.  What's happening is that, on a few models, the upper ridge that was forecasted to be directly north of the system, which forced the system due east, is now sliding off to the east more, which allows the system to cut north.

Slower ejection is the problem, otherwise this would have been a great set up for a major snowstorm in the heartland.  On the flip side, it’s Good to see all that moisture.  The trowal is going to be fierce looking on radar.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Stormhunter87]

My sister lives in denver and my wife has alot of family in Ft. Collins. Sounds like they are going to get a thumping.

[Hawkeye]

More blocking has returned on tonight's Euro, snow is back south.

[Hawkeye]

00z Canadian still has snow across Iowa.

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

More blocking has returned on tonight's Euro, snow is back south.

GFSv16 & GGEM for the win???  It's really been the only 2 models that have been rather consistent showing the ribbon of snow across the MW.  The Euro has been the most inconsistent it seems from way north to south.  Interesting battle among the various models.

 

Around these parts, the long awaited storm has made it into the valley and yes, it is raining heavily in the central valley across PHX metro and points west.  The band of precip is having a tough time tracking east but it will eventually.  Up in the mountains, the models have been upping the snowfall amounts in excess of 1 Foot for Flagstaff/Snowbowl Ski Resort and the White Mountains in the eastern part of the state.  I am really digging this potential as I might have to take a trip up north to see this snowfall.

 

00z Euro...

 

 

Historic snows are still looking like a good bet for the Foothills/Front Range and Denver metro....

 

This system may produce cold core convective storms later today in the valley...

Quote

By this afternoon, weakening mid-level winds will be turning more  
  out of the west across south-central Arizona, while the vorticity 
  forced ascent also begins to shift over eastern Arizona. This will  
  likely bring a brief lull in the shower activity early this  
  afternoon, but steepening mid-level lapse rates from Phoenix  
  westward into the Lower CO River Valley and some peaks of sunshine 
  are likely to bring scattered convective showers and low-topped  
  thunderstorms. Rainfall rates with these convective cells will be  
  better than what will occur this morning, but most areas should  
  again see light rainfall amounts as the cells will be quite  
  progressive in nature. These cold-core convective type showers  
  and/or thunderstorms will also be capable of producing small hail, 
  which is typical for a deep closed low weather system early in the  
  spring.  

 

By Saturday, I think we will be seeing some snow capped mountain peaks to my east as snow levels drop to 3,500 feet.  This should produce some gorgeous views of the landscape transformed to Winter. 

[Tom]

Pretty substantial change for IA peeps per the latest 00z EPS...

 

00z Euro Control...

 

 

[Tom]

Flagstaff already reporting 9.8" of snow...Let it Snow...hope they can score  a couple Feet by the time things end late Saturday....

Sheesh, Snowbowl ski resort is already up to 17"!  https://www.snowbowl.ski/?q=webcams

 

Flagstaff web cams...

https://www.flagstaffarizona.org/webcams/

[Hawkeye]

Models are still shifting around early next week.  The NAM is now in range.  It had the snow centered farther south on last night's 00z run, but it has shifted north somewhat this morning.  The GFS is drifting back south, but not back to where it had been.

12z NAM, GFS, GFSv16

[Hawkeye]

12z GDPS (Canadian) - No change, very consistent.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro - A bit north and slightly weaker than the 00z run.

[bud2380]

I missed the 00z run of the Euro, been super busy this morning.  Good to see it has come back with the possibility of snow further south.  Overall looks like we are nowhere near locking this one in yet.  

[bud2380]

Here is the Euro Kuchera as well. 

 

[Bellona]

I'm really trying not to get too sucked into this, but it's looking pretty good here for me at this point. 

[Tony]

24 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Here is the Euro Kuchera as well. 

 

I guess this was bound to happen. Each year we go through this and Spring takes longer to kick in unfortunately. If it's going to snow then lets get a storm like the Denver area. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[bud2380]

NWS Model Blend

 

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM is a bit south and colder.  The snow band reaches Cedar Rapids around sunrise Monday, so the timing is pretty good.

[Hawkeye]

00z RDPS

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS/GFSv16

[Hawkeye]

00z GDPS

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro - Most models still favoring northern Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z NAM-- shifting S and W---

[Grizzcoat]

3km-

[bud2380]

DVN says 2-5” Along and north of I80. Higher possible I’m further northwest. DMX has already issued WSW and saying 5-7” for portions of northern Iowa. 

[Tom]

00z Euro upping the ante for Denver metro...that would be something if they can score 32" from this storm and top the #1 spot for a March snowstorm...

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

12z nam rocks C.Ia

[CentralNebWeather]

37 degrees and pouring rain. Oh what might have been if this low had been quicker to eject and farther east. 

[james1976]

Had a moment to check in. Wow...surprised to see I'm in a winter storm watch! Looking pretty solid for mby.

[Hawkeye]

This is looking more like a northern Iowa snow event.  Several models show Cedar Rapids and Iowa city getting mostly mix.