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3/13 - 3/16 Powerful March Storm


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12z GFS/GFSv16

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I had 5.5” of rain this morning and picked up another .1” of red mud rain today for a storm total of 5.6”. This storm was able to suck up dust from New Mexico and Texas and rained down on us! 

I'm happy to report that over the last few days, PHX and most of the valley has picked up anywhere between .25-.50" of rain, while that is a drop in the bucket for what mid westerners are used to, thi

Ended up with 3.41" storm total. Even better, not a lot of standing water anywhere so it looks like most of it soaked into the ground.

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Even the Canadian is caving to the northern models now.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK.... north she goes.  I think DVN may have to back off the totals for CR/IC.  We'll probably end up with a slushy inch.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The HRRR is now in range.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The NAM & 3kNAM just took out nearly all snow for CR/IC.  Mason City is the place to be for this one.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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New snow map from DVN.  I think CR may be too high.

EwZB77zVgAE-ZBD?format=jpg&name=medium

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DMX snow graphic

EwZSTEeUUAEY2sw?format=png&name=medium

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z HRRR is an improvement for east-central IA.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Meanwhile, the NAMs continue to worsen.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00 RDPS - still ok

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z GFS & GFSv16.... still on the edge here so Cedar Rapids' total is fluctuating.  The last three runs of the v16 went from 2" to 6" to 0".

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z UK

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro - a bit north

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hastings, NE is already over 3" of rain.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Hastings, NE is already over 3" of rain.

image.png.e8a6b14edb2e4b87c495d09411fdad60.pngimage.png.63cc3d2a52df4a72cb406a3f2283b9f9.png 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Flood Advisory


Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Hastings NE
547 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

NEC001-035-061-181-141315-
/O.CON.KGID.FA.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T1315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams NE-Clay NE-Franklin NE-Webster NE-
547 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR ADAMS, WESTERN CLAY, EASTERN FRANKLIN AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...

At 547 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have
fallen. The stream gauge along the Thompson Creek at Riverton is
nearing flood stage, and minor flooding may be already occuring
along other creeks and streams in the area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hastings, Red Cloud, Harvard, Franklin, Blue Hill, Juniata,
  Campbell, Glenvil, Bladen, Roseland, Holstein, Trumbull, Ayr,
  Inland, Riverton, Cowles, Rosemont, Inavale and Hansen.

Rainfall rates have decreased, but additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5
inches is still expected over the area through Sunday. This
additional rain may continue the flooding risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9885 4035 9876 4035 9872 4040 9872
      4061 9855 4070 9845 4070 9804 4040 9821
      4028 9834 4000 9854 4000 9899 4014 9902

$$

Mangels

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Hastings,NE ASOS tipping bucket shows 4.3" in last 24 hours. Probably add 10% due to spillage in the  tipping process if rates were ever near 1" or hour or more. Be interested to see what some manual reports are.

KHSI 141153Z AUTO 08020G33KT 2 1/2SM RA BR OVC004 06/04 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 06035/1125 VIS 2V4 CIG 004V008 SLP132 P0016 60145 70430 T00560044 10067 20050 56019

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'm happy to report that over the last few days, PHX and most of the valley has picked up anywhere between .25-.50" of rain, while that is a drop in the bucket for what mid westerners are used to, this is about as good as it gets for one system.  PHX officially picked up 0.36" and is 0.12" shy of normal for the month. 

 

On the other side of the coin, the mountains up north did very good in the snow dept.  The ski resort Snowbowl up in Flagstaff picked up an enormous amount of snow with 28" of powder!!!  It is sold out for the weekend.  This is pure awesomeness since the models weren't really juiced up until the last 12 hours or so before the storm.  Interestingly, this storms dynamics really showed itself as the NWS issued the new "snow squall warning" just south of Flagstaff yesterday as the cold core ULL tracked over head and produced squalls up across the mountains.

Image

 

Parts of the interstate I-17 N into Flagstaff were closed yesterday afternoon due to whiteouts/spin outs and treacherous travel.

Image

 

 

https://www.azfamily.com/news/winter-storm-shuts-down-parts-of-several-major-highways-around-northern-arizona/article_2b58b4ea-8452-11eb-acf3-5b413d4d7925.html?block_id=667537

 

Arizona Department of Transportation Maps

 

 

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HRRR is the best model for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. But the 12z GFS took a nice turn to the cooler side as well. Gonna just be a nowcast here. Rates will have to be extremely heavy though to overcome the warm ground and preceding rain down here. Certainly can happen though as we’ve seen many times. But we’ll need good flake size and solid rates. I’m thinking 1-2” IMBY and any more will be a pleasant surprise 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

HRRR is the best model for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. But the 12z GFS took a nice turn to the cooler side as well. Gonna just be a nowcast here. Rates will have to be extremely heavy though to overcome the warm ground and preceding rain down here. Certainly can happen though as we’ve seen many times. But we’ll need good flake size and solid rates. I’m thinking 1-2” IMBY and any more will be a pleasant surprise 

The timing is good, though, starting just before sunrise.  Models are still showing a wide range of snow totals.  The new GFS is better, but, oddly, the GFSv16 dropped us to almost nothing.  It's going to be a close race between the precip band moving up from the southwest and cold air intrusion coming from the nw.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z models

HRRR

snku_acc.us_mw.png

NAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

3kNAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

RDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

GDPS

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GFS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

GFSv16

snku_acc.us_mw.png

UK (10:1) - actual accumulation will be a lower ratio

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DVN's map... going conservative around here

Tab3FileL.png?b2cec50c6ad0909752385e4da4

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DMX snow graphic

Tab3FileL.png?f88fea9ec20509093decc7f5d7

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro keeps drifting north, down to only 2-3" here now.  The Euro and HRRR are not on the same page at all.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The wind has really picked up here over the last few hours.

18z HRRR

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tough forecast for the area. Gonna stick with ~2" in Iowa City, but that could easily be much higher or nothing at all depending on the speed at which evap cooling can work.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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There's this super subtle detail on the HRRR that I think is likely responsible for the heavier snow further south. 

On the 18z run, there's a patch of really quite dry surface dewpoints in the mid to upper teens that gets advected in later tonight. As this area of lower dews gets moistened, it increases the effects of evap cooling and leads to an overall cooler column than other models at the same time ---> heavier snow further south.

It's more evident on skew Ts but I cant gif those

floop-hrrr-2021031418.sfctd_b.us_mw.gif.d99bab62900cc1dfaf2ad354d6b33eda.gif

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Good luck to IA peeps with picking up some snow and adding to the stats! The I-80 train continues. Wouldn't mind getting more snow before the season is up but the window is closing. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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18z NAM & 3kNAM... a little improvement compared to 12z.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z RDPS... might be the lowest it has ever been for Cedar Rapids.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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New DVN and DMX snow graphics

Tab2FileL.png?5c98658c719d6397634fb855ad

Tab2FileL.png?d831d6d9c1cf4f3225a3854ecc

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z GFS/GFSv16... much heavier into the WI/IL border region.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I just got home from Indiana and haven't been keeping up with weather.

Apparently I'm getting missed to the south again?

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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