New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

Skilling's RPM model nailed the last system with the last minute SE shift...it's panting 2.9" at ORD for this sytem and the same for MKE...

[Geos]

First time poster, long time lurker.

 

Seems common, models move 2-3 days out only to come back to their original spot.

 

Well welcome to the forum! 

 

Sometimes that is true. The last storm on Christmas Eve didn't really follow any rules or pattern. lol

What's your location?

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EURO is almost entirely below freezing here throughout the storm.

[Madtown]

Lol...towel thrown.

[james1976]

What a disaster for Iowa. Euro is a weak mess every single run.

[gosaints]

Zzzzzz

[gosaints]

Skilling's RPM model nailed the last system with the last minute SE shift...it's panting 2.9" at ORD for this sytem and the same for MKE...

The euro led the way

[indianajohn]

Local mets posting on facebook about these systems like snowameggedon is coming SMH!!!

[Tom]

The euro led the way

RPM came out before the 12z Euro run and showed the SE shift first...so you can say they were both right.

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensemble & Control...

[educatorjen]

12z Euro Ensemble & Control...

Well, that is truly ugly. 

[educatorjen]

I mean..."YEAH....other people are going to get some snow!" 

[lcp]

Well welcome to the forum!

 

Sometimes that is true. The last storm on Christmas Eve didn't really follow any rules or pattern. lol

What's your location?

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Northwest Illinois, halfway between Rockford and Dubuque. Freeport IL area.

 

I love to see the maps you guys post 5 days out so I can somewhat plan ahead as I'm in the snow removal industry. Just need to learn how to read the z times so I can figure out the start and stop times of the events.

[Niko]

My area has just been under a WWA for 2-3inches of snow and ice for tomorrow before going over to rain later in the afternoon.

Either way ya look at it, its gonna be a mess out there. Hello January!!!

[Tom]

Northwest Illinois, halfway between Rockford and Dubuque. Freeport IL area.

 

I love to see the maps you guys post 5 days out so I can somewhat plan ahead as I'm in the snow removal industry. Just need to learn how to read the z times so I can figure out the start and stop times of the events.

Welcome!  As for the "00z/06z/18z" times, just deduct "6" from the time stamp on the run and you will get the exact time.  For example, "18z" will be Noon CST.  When daylight savings time rolls around, you have to adjust it 1 hour.  Hope that helps.

[Yerf]

Looks like LOT, IWX, and MKE are all in agreement. lOT holding off any posts until midnight

[james1976]

Congrats Chicago peeps. Looks like you got the jackpot last minute.

[Money]

4-6 inches in N.IL on the 18z GFS. MKE gets about 3

 

Goes from 8-10 here down to 1 within 72 hours of an event smh 

[WBadgersW]

And a swing and a miss. I'm sensing a pattern..

[lcp]

Welcome! As for the "00z/06z/18z" times, just deduct "6" from the time stamp on the run and you will get the exact time. For example, "18z" will be Noon CST. When daylight savings time rolls around, you have to adjust it 1 hour. Hope that helps.

Thanks, that does help. So would 0z January 4th be 6pm on Jan 3rd CST?

[Tom]

21z HRRR model is showing flakes to begin flying for N IL around 2:00am CST.  Who's staying up???  It actually snows for a good 4 hours till 6:00am.  Total snowfall from first wave 1-2".  Hopefully this new snowfall can nudge the warm front farther south so we don't see rain.

[Trinomial]

21z HRRR model is showing flakes to begin flying for N IL around 2:00am CST.  Who's staying up???  It actually snows for a good 4 hours till 6:00am.  Total snowfall from first wave 1-2".  Hopefully this new snowfall can nudge the warm front farther south so we don't see rain.

So what are your thoughts on totals for N IL including the 1 - 2 from the overnight hours? Thanks,Tom!

[Tom]

So what are your thoughts on totals for N IL including the 1 - 2 from the overnight hours? Thanks,Tom!

I've noticed models are picking up on the second wave coming through Sunday morning.  This band looks interesting and could lay down 2-3" on top of what we see Saturday as the cold air ushers in and could fluff up the snowfall.  Right now best guess is 2-4" total snowfall for N IL.  If that second wave develops farther in future runs it can up the totals.

 

As I write this, I just saw Skilling's RPM model and it showed it snowing from N COOK and points north through Sat midday.  Then a lull in the moisture until the second wave moves through.  His model may be pointing to a cooler temp profile for the northern burbs.

[Trinomial]

I've noticed models are picking up on the second wave coming through Sunday morning.  This band looks interesting and could lay down 2-3" on top of what we see Saturday as the cold air ushers in and could fluff up the snowfall.  Right now best guess is 2-4" total snowfall for N IL.  If that second wave develops farther in future runs it can up the totals.

 

As I write this, I just saw Skilling's RPM model and it showed it snowing from N COOK and points north through Sat midday.  Then a lull in the moisture until the second wave moves through.  His model may be pointing to a cooler temp profile for the northern burbs.

Thanks, Tom. I feel like some dynamic cooling could be in the cards. My high tomorrow is 35 - doesn't seem too far fetched that this all can be snow. My grid shows no rain at the moment. What time tomorrow night is the wave supposed to begin?

[Tom]

Thanks, Tom. I feel like some dynamic cooling could be in the cards. My high tomorrow is 35 - doesn't seem too far fetched that this all can be snow. My grid shows no rain at the moment. What time tomorrow night is the wave supposed to begin?

With very low dewpoints at the moment, there will be some evaporative cooling near the surface and hopefully aloft.  Like you said, as the storm system phases and begins to deepen it maybe produce enough cooling to keep it mostly snow.  Going to be a close call for NE IL, but NW/NC IL may be all snow.

[Tom]

23z RAP model's take on the first wave....give or take an inch or two due to 850's rising a bit towards early morning...

[gosaints]

DVN running warmer in the upper levels than models had indicated..

[Geos]

29°/20° here, so the cold air mass is firmly in place still. Thinking this is going to be one of those events where there is the front end snow, sleet and maybe a little freezing rain and then almost nothing until the second wave hints. Wouldn't be surprised if there was some fog tomorrow afternoon. 

 

I think all of southern WI will stay at or below 32° through this event.

[gosaints]

Problem is as modeled the front end that far north is so weak

[Tom]

00z NAM seeing 1-2" as well with first wave...

[Madtown]

So .5" tonight then some mist followed by 2" of snow....and we call this major.

[Madtown]

What the hell has happened to us...lol

[GDR]

So .5" tonight then some mist followed by 2" of snow....and we call this major.

might be the only major storm of the season.

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM has all but nixed the storm for east-central Iowa.  It has a spritz late this evening and then a brief snow shower early sunday morning, that's it.  This winter has had nothing but disorganized, multi-piece, strung-out garbage.

[Tom]

DMX....

 

[Tom]

Light snow already breaking out in IA...

[Tom]

02z HRRR...a little bit more generous in N IL...wonder how well this model does so we can compare and use it for the Clipper Mon/Tue...

[Sven]

Wow what a great map!!!    

[Yerf]

We'll take anything by now

[Geos]

So .5" tonight then some mist followed by 2" of snow....and we call this major.

 

Major for this winter!

 

GFS has 6" amounts for the second wave.

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Major for this winter!

 

GFS has 6" amounts for the second wave.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010300/gfs_asnow_eus_9.png

 

I find that these maps are always a bit overdone, they must consider sleet and freezing rain as snow as well.