Scott26 Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 What is better than starting 2015 with a major winter storm? Models are in good agreement of a strong low pressure system during this time frame. There should be enough cold air in place for widespread snows north of the area of low pressure. The greatest uncertainty is whether high pressure will keep this system suppressed or this can take on more of a negative tilt and bring widespread snows to the sub-forum. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2014 Report Share Posted December 27, 2014 Thanks for starting this thread. Even though we are about a week away from this potential storm system, there are several indicators this storm should materialize into a big winter storm. The LRC has done quite well this season, and I'm not to surprised that this system looks to cycle back through next weekend. Timing/phasing of the northern and southern stream will play a big role with this system. Back in November, the system phased much later and rain was the main event except for Wisco. I believe this system will mature earlier as teleconnections would support this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Gfs still showing a solid snow event next Friday into Saturday. Right around 6" for Iowa city, but p type could be an issue. Long ways off. Let's see if the euro caves and shifts north this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 PGFS was weaker than the GFS and a bit more southeast. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 GGEM is also surpassed with the storm on the 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 00z Euro has SLP developing near Amarillo, TX @ 00z Jan 3rd...different look and ejecting out better. Should be a good run if it phases with northern stream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 990 north of Buffalo at hr 168 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Euro sn totals through 168--- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Looks like it then develops a secondary low near AR that cuts up through S IL/S IN to near Detroit, MI...baby steps towards a big time storm. It races towards Detroit, MI as a 995mb SLP with a solid system. This has major storm written all over it. Although there wasn't that much snow fall in the defo band, this still looks good to me and I can see what the model is trying to say. Over the last couple days, both the Euro Ensembles/Control have been showing some sort of lower lakes cutter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 -25 850 mb temps at 1-06-0z after the storm with a 1054 H D**n. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f156.gif 162 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f162.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 From LOTTHE CALI LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTAND NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLASH OF THE WARMER GULF AIR ANDARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN A DYNAMICWINTER STORM SYSTEM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE SOMEWHERE IN THEREGION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION SNOW BANDEXPECTING TO SET UP BEHIND IT DUE TO A REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR ANDSTRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 This was a nice surprise from NWS GRB this morning. UPPER/SURFACE TROUGHS SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ADDEDLIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THISFEATURE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO BIGGER STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...WINTER STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FORPORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ECMWF HAS COME IN MORE BULLISHWITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THUS EXPECT LATER SHIFTS TO INCREASECHANCES FOR SNOW. DID RAISE THEM SLIGHTLY PER COORDINATIONEFFORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THISSTORM FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 It will be a fun storm to track all week. Finally!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 This definitely looks like a classic winter storm in the making. Check out the EPS control... You can see that trowal feature with a nice defo band NW of the low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Let me get this straight....00z Euro came way north compared to yesterday's 12z run??? This is a great sign. If I'm correct, yesterday it was supressed and headed way south and east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Let me get this straight....00z Euro came way north compared to yesterday's 12z run??? This is a great sign. If I'm correct, yesterday it was supressed and headed way south and east.Yup, the deterministic run went well north in line with the Control. Looking at the ensembles there still isn't much of an agreement. Some members are still well south while others are a good hit for this sub-forum. So who knows what the 12Z Euro is going to do today lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z gfs still takes a 1002 L or so to Chicago. 3-5 for the snow areas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z gfs still takes a 1002 L or so to Chicago. 3-5 for the snow areasThe GFS and PGFS are world's apart. With its better resolution I would think the PGFS would handle these synoptic scale set-ups better, but with the last storm it did not do well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 GFS came in a bit warmer each of the last few runs and not as well defined deformation band in the cold sector. PGFS came in well south as did GGEM. Let's see what the Euro has to say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 12Z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'll hang my head on the more consistent GFS OP. GGEM and PAR GFS have been all over the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 This storm isnt THAT far out now.....5-6 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 12z Euro looks like it may be a similar run to last nights 00z run...developing SLP near MS/AR area @ 144HR... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 My latest write-up on the storm, for those interested: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/january-3-5-potential-major-winter-storm.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Just read Andrew's write-up. Good analysis. Makes sense that the GFS would be considered an outlier. GFS has been pretty consistent with its track so I have been holding out hopes for that. But your write-up makes a lot of sense. 12z Euro is now back south as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 My latest write-up on the storm, for those interested: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/january-3-5-potential-major-winter-storm.htmlMay I ask why you are leaning towards a southern track? A negative PNA and a positive NAO would not support a southern track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 Southern track is not the way to go. The snowman is going to be wrong on this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 18Z GFS is very weak with the storm on the 3rd. Very narrow band of 1-3 inches. Seems like yet another dud is coming in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 The models are all over the place with the speed of the low. I think the GEM is too quick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 GFS just took a jump south. Totally misses me this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 The reason why I see a big problem in today's 12z Euro run is how it handles the storm system in the NE Pacific. It has that storm way to close to NW NAMER which then does not allow the polar jet to crash farther south. This was a fluky run and doesn't fit the overall pattern and the blocking that will be developing near NW NAMER. GFS is handling this blocking a lot better and has the right idea, along with the developing -PNA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 May I ask why you are leaning towards a southern track? A negative PNA and a positive NAO would not support a southern track.I'm looking at a southern track based on the Typhoon Rule application, possibility of model guidance being too slow with pushing Arctic high pressure to the south from Canada, and NWS Chicago stating in last night's AFD how model guidance tends to be too fast with pushing cutoff lows to the east. 18z GFS & GFS-Parallel coming south & quicker shouldn't be considered a surprise. On the other hand, one might expect this storm to be a bit juicier than currently projected, given the presence of substantial STJ branch interaction. Edit to correct myself, quicker GFS is a surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 28, 2014 Report Share Posted December 28, 2014 LOT AFD THE NEXT QUESTION FORTHE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONGPACIFIC SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND CLOSING OFF OVERTHE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE DIGGINGTROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD INITIATE SOME HEIGHT RISES OVER THEMIDWEST...WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN SPITEOF PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHINGDEVELOPS OVER THE NCNTRL/NERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER HIGH PARKS OVERTHE GREATER ANTILLES AND WRN CARIBBEAN. THE FORECAST CONCERNS WILLFOCUS ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DESERTSOUTHWEST WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINSAND...ULTIMATELY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...AND HOW MUCH PHASINGWILL OCCUR WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL TRENDINGMUCH QUICKER THAN THE OTHER LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z ECMWFADVERTISING THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND THE GEM TAKING A MIDDLE OF THEROAD SOLUTION. STILL FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION FOR A SRN STREAMCUT-OFF AS THE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR BEING TOO FAST IN LIFTINGTHESE SYSTEM NEWD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 0z GFS much slower this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 0z GFS slows down, GFS-Parallel goes south & a day slower than the actual GFS, and GGEM brings the storm south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Storm is non existent on GFS. Snow keeps getting pushed back into fantasy land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 6z GFS has it way south and very weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 I think we jinx ourselves whenever we start a thread using the word major in the title! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted December 29, 2014 Report Share Posted December 29, 2014 Had to chuckle at LOT's Izzie. This mornings AFD: "AT THIS POINT THE CHANCES OF THE LASVEGAS STRIP SEEING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THE NEXT 7 DAYS ISCURRENTLY HIGHER THAN HERE IN OUR CWA..." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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