New Year's Weekend Potential Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

12z PGFS...

[Money]

Just need the euro to jump on board and hold for 4 days :/

[gosaints]

Been awhile since a full phased bomb winter storm. Would be nice but in this flow would take perfection

[tim the weatherman]

we just need a southward shift about 30 miles to get no il out of the sigifcant ice like the ggem is saying.

[james1976]

Ill take the PGFS or GEM, haha. Looks like the GFS OP just skirts by to my east. Need an earlier phase for my area.

[winterfreak]

Yes once again I'll probably be toast because of a late phase and east track.

[BigDizBliz420]

i heard the euro is east

[Southeast Iowa]

Checking out the latest G.F.S decent Snowstorm Saturday. Another Storm on the 5th Maybe a Mega storm on the 9th. Now let's hope this comes true.

[Tom]

i heard the euro is east

It's not even loaded past HR 72...

[Money]

Much stronger northern stream on the euro

 

1004 in s Dakota or so at 96

[BigDizBliz420]

It's not even loaded past HR 72...

 

 

0z?

[Money]

Euro 993 just north of buffalo at 120

[Tom]

12z Euro seems to weaken the northern stream and the southern piece takes control.  Showing a better phase from 00z run for sure and a nice defo band.

[Tom]

The good thing is the Euro is picking up on the northern piece digging farther south (as Snowman and myself explained could happen bc of the models under doing the arctic push from the north).  Therefore, the system has more cold air to work with and phase earlier.

 

Notice the model inching towards an earlier phase each run from 12 hours ago...

[Madtown]

Can't wish and make it happen. King euro says close but no...moving on

[tim the weatherman]

theyr'e 2 waves one is centered over the dakotas and the other is over north oklahoma.

[tim the weatherman]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_12301706_hd30-1.jpgWith this path, a swath of accumulating snow could reach across the general area from near St. Louis to Chicago, Milwaukee and Detroit. The exact track of the storm will determine the dividing line between rain and snow.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_12301703_hd33-1.jpgbut with the top berine rayno at accuweather has tossed out #2 storm track and resided with #1 storm track being strenghing track while #2 is weak sauce.

[BigDizBliz420]

that looks like big snows for chicago?!

[East Dubzz]

The GGEM would be terrible around here. Good to see Accuweather already throwing out maps and stuff with so much in the air. I guess some things never change.

[tim the weatherman]

The GGEM would be terrible around here. Good to see Accuweather already throwing out maps and stuff with so much in the air. I guess some things never change.

i agree that would be terrible for northren il to lose power because of ice.

[BigDizBliz420]

i heard chicago can't get icey?

[Snowshoe]

I picked a great weekend to plan a snowmobile trip. Northern WI either gets 2-4" from the northern stream with a late/no phase or the systems phase and I'll be in heaven. I'll take either scenario!

[tim the weatherman]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2014/590x451_12301617_severe1.png

[Geos]

i heard chicago can't get icey?

 

It's very rare largely due to the winds are usually blowing off the warmer lake and that boosts temps enough to prevent icing on most surfaces. Now out by Rockford and areas like that see freezing rain more often.

[BigDizBliz420]

It's very rare largely due to the winds are usually blowing off the warmer lake and that boosts temps enough to prevent icing on most surfaces. Now out by Rockford and areas like that see freezing rain more often.

 

 

so suburbs are going to get ice? uh oh 

[Yerf]

I don't think this is an ice storm. I think models will tighten up on that

[Tony]

I am liking the trends so far especially seeing that the Euro is finally coming on board. Plenty of available cold air so I don't think icing will be too much of an issue but cannot completely rule it out for some areas. Also seems to be gaining strength and so so close to phasing. Warning snows on our doorstep so lets see how the models do the next couple days and iron out the minor details but track is definitely looking good.

[james1976]

E. Iowa local met "A little light snow possible Saturday again maybe Monday night. Don't expect much out of each if any."

[BigDizBliz420]

E. Iowa local met "A little light snow possible Saturday again maybe Monday night. Don't expect much out of each if any."

 

euro is good for Michigan, i don't think Iowa though

[tim the weatherman]

i don't think eastren iowa is out of the woods on this one.

[Maxim]

so suburbs are going to get ice? uh oh 

?

[Grizzcoat]

This system is going to throw more loops and flip/flops ( then normal?) even with most of the energy on shore and being sampled. 3.5-5 days (depending on you location)-out in this weather pattern and recent model performance-- it wouldn't shock me that this system throws a loop that none are thinking at this moment.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123012/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123012/gfs_asnow_us_33.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

[Snowshoe]

Not sure what I was expecting from NWS GRB... Boring!

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
COLD YUKON AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND GENERATE GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THURS MORN. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 20S IN THE FOX VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE TRAILING END OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND WASHES
OUT OVER THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WILL STEP OUT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
STRENGTHEN...TAPPING A LITTLE BIT OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND
BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST QUICKLY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND INTENSITY FOR THIS EVENT.

[Snowshoe]

LaCrosse is a little better.

 

 

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE POTENT UPPER
TROUGH OVER NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA...AND HOW IT MAY OR MAY NOT
INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 30.12Z GFS IS FASTEST EJECTING THE UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH ALLOWS FOR SOME SNOW TO IMPACT THE REGION...BUT MUCH OF IT IS
DRIVEN BY THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. THE 30.12Z CANADIAN PRESENTS
THE MOST PHASED SITUATION OF BOTH FEATURES...WHICH AS A RESULT
BRINGS BOTH PLENTY OF SNOW AND WIND. SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER FOR NOW
WITH ONLY 30 PERCENT OF BOTH THE 30.00Z/12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
PHASING IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION. LASTLY...THE 30.12Z ECMWF SORTA
SPLITS BOTH SCENARIOS...BUT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW OVERALL. IN ANY
EVENT...WHAT SEEMS CERTAIN IS SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY
BRISK WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT 925MB TEMPS OF -20C OR
COLDER BY 18Z SUNDAY...A DROP OF ALMOST 15C FROM 18Z SATURDAY. MAY
END UP NEEDING SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ON SUNDAY...AFTER BEING
AROUND 30 ON SATURDAY. WELL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN FEATURES UPPER TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...FAVORING ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE
SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING BACK
COLDER AND IS IN LINE NOW WITH THE GFS. BASICALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A
REPEAT OF THE CURRENT COLD. MORE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE GOING TO
BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAYBE EVEN WARNINGS. SOME SMALL...20 PERCENT...CHANCES
EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH.

[Tony]

I know! I know! but something to pass the time

[Tony]

What....no comments. I would have expected someone to say something^

[The Snowman]

My latest thoughts: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/january-3-5-potential-winter-storm-ice.html

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png